Irrationally mad decision making to obtain the American Dream.

Posts tagged “swn

Dow continues to rise. SWN up 10% after earnings – Nov 10′, Gold on the rise

SWN @ $36 is up 10% since earnings and moving with the Dow and strong trends of gas prices going up. It has a huge reserve keeping the company profitable. The Dow continues to rise even though fairs of inflation continue to rise with the U.S. dollar weakening. GOOG and AAPL I feel are also getting a boost. I continually see more ipads being used in the NYC subway. For around every 20 riders I see someone holding an ipad and 15 others wearing ipods and around 10 of those holding iphones. Apple Inc. is definitely still in growth saturating the market and has a mighty fan base. Current I’ve been following Gold also at 1391 ounce. I joined My Gold Rush USA, a gold home based business opportunity, where you can get 10% of gold American Eagle Coins. That is kind of a big deal when you think of a discount of 10% on $1445 an ounce for American Eagle coins that is $144.50 in gold discount. For more information on getting these coins at a discount check out My Gold Rush USA.

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markets continue to rally over weak dollar – SWN earnings

well I suppose everyone is a bit confused, but I continue to trade with the trend. they say our dollar is going to junk level. i highly doubt that anytime soon and these economists are over analyzing data.

however i actually had a scary dream the markets crashed a huge percent and i only had the next day to get out of a call position or my account would be wiped out.

today though the markets continue to go up and i’m playing and earnings trade with Southwestern Energy (SWN) the stock has done much. it’s earnings is Oct 28th. it is actually at a 52 week low period something i did not even taken into the equation when trading it with real money. damnit. well it’s a bad sign. it has moved up 10% and going into winter it earns more money, but going into earnings this could mean the stock is weaker than i expected. i guess i’ll see this thursday.


Hit my first stock target price prediction on Southwestern Energy Company (SWN) @ $41

SWN yesterday hit $41 and just today pulled back as typical, but definitely on a moving force. I believe the last time I spoke last week it was over $35.  What a great call option play, but I’ll have MY day and as long as I keep up with my numbers I should be more ready this fall.  It might just work out for me this time with the market poised to turn harder up with all of Fed. Bernanke’s talkin-the-talk, rumors being spread, some mediocre better numbers on economic reports, and stocks finally moving back up leaving their steeply discounted prices.  It bothers me a bit.  I admit it, I want to trade so bad.  I have to resist the powers and keep my promise to myself….man these months discipling myself not to trade have been hard.  I get these voices saying, “come on this one will work, you’ve been waiting for it, it will only be one trade…” I have to resist the evil within.  I’m sure it means fun and good intentions in it’s own evil mysterious universal ways but I need to stick to my big guns and keep them strapped in just a bit longer.

There will ALWAYs be trades in the future, big moves, small moves, and no moves.  Everyday the stock market goes up and down, sidways, and life goes on.  Today I’m a trader, tomorrow, and for the rest of my life.

I WILL MAKE LARGE PROFITS OFF YOU SWN, AAPL, NUE, GOOG, SPWR, FSLR, GME, and housing stocks your time is near!  You better be afraid market makers of this big Clint Eastword city slicker trader!  Be very afraid I will come back the Green Giant!

Other news on stocks – General Motors (GM) 1:100 reverse stock split.  What a joke.  NOW THATS A PUT OPTION PLAY!  This stock when it goes from $2 to $200 (your money cut in half) will start selling like girl scout cookies.  Oh, the put option on that baby will be one fat profit play mark my words.  ill do an update on it a few weeks after its split.  reverse stock splits are the worse.


Southwestern Energy – a surprise? SWN up 10% at $38

SWN today after earnings released popped up 10% at $38. It is surprised because the earnings although a positive qtr showed a loss. Both articles I read sounded more bearish then bullish. My theory is some big institutions sold out of the stock making it rise much higher. If I’m correct it should start to simmer and fall within the next week or two after the buzz is gone from the sudden increase in price. I haven’t done much earnings research lately so its possible SWN just pops during this earnings time frame or its on its second time down likely past its low of $21.

I can’t really figure what investors think of the earnings yet so I’ll be watching Southwestern Energy Company closely.

AAPL holds at $125 as well as X @ $26. Steel hasn’t much done anything at all except sit on it’s ass. I think once the economy turns steel stocks will be big bargins and big profit growth stocks. WFC @ $20 still. This stock is moving and I think it will go past $25 next.


my big 2009 stock picks – new option practice trades going into new year

hello. how has your stock trading been going these days? currently I’m reading the Dick Davis Dividend. a big fat book with a lot of “i don’t knows” in it. i’m about only 30 pages in to it. definitely a slow read and waiting for the good stuff. i’ve never known a writer so interested in summer camp. i couldn’t stand the ones i was a counselor at so i suppose its how much you dig it.

for my 2009 big stock picks (For myself):

i have a strong conviction that X Steel (X) currently at $38 is going back up up up. it just recently broke its downtrend and slow like a crater tippy toeing back up. i could be wrong and like mr. davis “i don’t know” because there are so many “ifs” in the market that change circumstances, but for now if i bet my life on it i’d buy X call options and the stock (covered calls). even in a slow economy we are still building and so is many growing countries such as china and india. other stocks i see ripe are Apple (AAPL) at $98. it recently hit $110. i see everyone with an iPod and many people i know and people i meet talk about how they want to buy an apple computer. when you go into their mall show room retail stores its stuffed with helpful workers and masses of interested potential and current apple fans. i think another star is AMAT Technologies (AMAT). currently at $10 it is one of those innovative companies and with obama’s energy bill it should strike some wicked fat solar contracts. southwestern energy company (SWN) is always knocking its head with the trend. if you look at the charts its broke its trend and has been moving sideways. its currently on its low so i expect it to move past $30 again currently at $28+ a share. lastly the credit card companies Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V) are both on a tidal wave and likely profiting from this credit mess and consumers going back to credit card use not home equity for all those christmas presents this year for the kiddies. V at $52 still new to the stock market exchange is likely to move quicker past $60 i think.

for my stock trades i’m currently still up +690% since august 2008. if i would have sold out of my last option trades sooner i would have been up more but because i neglected them i lost over 130% on those trades, but that’s okay i’m back in practicing again and that is what counts. i just need to keep practicing even when I see a stock like HOKU at $2.89 and I want to be in it. the more practicing i do the closer and sooner i will get to my goal of understand my stocks better to trade them with less risk and what pisses me off the most is telling me trading in the stock market is gambling. it isn’t if you take real calculated risks which i am practicing on this year.

see recent practice trades going into new year 2009:
12-12-08-fn1


hello. from my observations were moving sideways.

hello. the stock market is definitely moving sideways from my charts. the moves for call and put options on SWN (southwestern energy company) are just amazing and as much as I want to get on the band wagon and ride the ups an downs on the stock i need to not trade and stick to my disciplined timeout. i haven’t been doing a lot of the things i want to do such as reading more economic and stock market books, journaling the market and my thoughts, and most importantly doing more practice trades. my last 2 classes will be done this week with hawaii pacific university and then i start my masters next spring. i plan to do it economics. i really like the markets so why not. i need to get back to journalizing my practice trades into excel. i went absent and i need to get back into the movement of practice trading more often and more practice trades on of course, more events. i might even post some personal finance sarcasm on my blog soon too. only if i could come up with some material.

anyway i’m on itunes now… yeah i know. i need material for this too but it will likely be non-stock market related, or will it? search “punks with aloha” in the search bar in the itunes store – its a podcast.


when government steps in to bailout market surges up

it seems like when ever the government bails out another company in this case being Citigroup (c) with a “rescue plan” or rumor of one the stock market surged up in the last 30 minutes of trading of the “good” news or is it? look at the automakers…. is it fair that the government only bails out selective companies? i don’t care what the government does i really don’t have much control over it’s decision but i do have control over my stock option trades. i do think if a company made really bad financial decisions then they should go down. let the strongest and smartest survive. so if the asian auto market takes over the usa because they have better management and cutting costs then say good bye to our automakers that created the industry because they don’t know how to “change” with the industry. we need a company that is going to make a big change for the environment and put their business on the line. hydrogen cars have already been made, why not in full production? just stop making normal cars and make better clean energy cars and price them same and i bet people would start buying them like hotcakes because same cost and less gas needed. the problem, oil. politicians still make mega kickbacks on oil so until we don’t bail out oil we are screwed for new innovations in the auto market.

i thought the market was finally going to move up 2 weeks ago, but it continued down some more.
SWN hit $22! bounced back up to $26 and i plan for it to hit $28-30 this would be a definite call option trade if for real. GOOG at $261. wow. hard times i guess on these once big high flying stocks…


stocks jump off bollinger bands – FSLR expected too

I had a hunch today might jump up some after around 2 days of losses, but on the charts everything was still moving down. The only precise clear signal I saw for a real call option trade was on FSLR with it’s big red candle dipping below the BB’s and on smaller charts showing technicals moving up in the morning.

Today stocks really moved with force. I noticed on the charts and highs/lows how much of a swing there was showing major candle wick buying support/confidence. I have to admit the good thing about practice trading and figuring out which side of the trade you should be on is that you can be wrong and not lose money! Currently looking at AAPL charts on the 233 min. there is a clear picture of what happened today and likely on every chart I look at too. For the past week and half stocks have been falling and today from what I see will create a few up days or call option practice trades. Currently many of PUT trades were profitable even though they closed higher because they fell lower.

For a moment I considered staying in the Puts for tomorrow, but the right thing would be do to close them since I know stocks are about to move higher and change sides. The only ones within yesterdays practice trades that would have worked would have been ones hitting low low’s. (or +$1-2 on option)

Now, I still have my “ifs” because also on all the 55 min charts it shows each white candle getting smaller and smaller not hitting top BB’s (except AAPL). So this could also bring me to the conclusion that todays boost could be short-lived and fall again hard tomorrow. I’m going to play dcalls because the charts say a second day of upward movement, but we are still in all downtrends currently. So since I’m not playing long-term Puts I will trade what I see on a weekly basis.

See below with completed practice trades 11/12/08 and new 11/13/08 following:
SOLD
11-13
BOUGHT
11-13-b


new option call and put practice trade picks november 2008

Looking at my charts and current economic market conditions I came to two conclusions.

#1 The market just had a mini-rally, lost the rally, and is continuing in the major downtrend

#2 Many stocks charts show a possible “V” hitting the bottom, hitting bollinger bands on weekly big charts, which MIGHT mean a possible “W” major trend reversal may happen in the next few weeks we’ll see if that last down run will be the last at least for a while.

We’ve been in a full down down down for a full year. It’s likely possible to continue it, but stocks are at real discount prices looks at X and AKS and AAPL which its retail stores are constantly SO BUSY you’d think we were in a real bull buying consumer spending crazy type market. I also like SWN, FSLR, and QQQQ but since everything says “down more” currently I’m playing PUTS except for FSLR which is being pushed down so hard and on shorter charts shows tomorrow it will likely spike some up before moving down more. All my plays are short term likely to be out tomorrow or the following day. I find being in for just one market day increases my profit/time in play for trading options.

see trades below (currently up +700% since august on trades):
11-12


Sold call/put option practice plays – +130%

I was wrong about SWN trying to trade it against the general market while I saw everything else going down. This just shows “the trend is your friend” is the real deal. Below are my practice option trades on FSLR, GOOG, AAPL, RIMM, QQQQ, SWN, ATS.
fn11-6


Although on big charts shows uptrend, short-term stocks will continue to fall again

The day after the election said a lot. Basically in my opinion the markets gained so much in the past week that after election day they puked. At least in the short term on charts it looks like stocks will continue to fall some more especially RIMM, AAPL, QQQQ, FSLR, AKS, and GOOG on daily and 233 charts. The only stock I would bet against the market flow at the money is Southwestern Energy Company (SWN) with its strong momentum breaking through all major down trends currently at $37 which keeps hitting lows of $26 then popping back up to $28-31. I can see it surpassing $45 by end of November 08′ if it keeps up. Magic is happening on weekly charts right now. Real strong support hitting real lows on bottoms slowly curving up creating big U’s showing a real change in direction, but how much change and how soon?

My put option practice plays:
RIMM, AAPL, QQQQ’s, FSLR, AKS, GOOG
My call option practice play:
SWN
fn_11-5


History is made first Black President AND stock market in full upswing gear!

Yes, you heard me right. I’m watching my stocks on charts and their is REAL movement change moving up breaking major down trends especially in Southwestern Energy (SWN) and First Solar (FSLR). It is sooooo hard to not trade this excellent call option opportunities showing upside on all charts. I have to hold back if I want to practice real discipline and wait my full year and commit this to myself. I have to tell myself there will ALWAYS be more trades I can do in the future. If I want to be very wealthy then I need to hold back for one years EVEN if there are excellent trades to be completed. I haven’t been on my practice plays and if there was a time now is very important to be completing them with these big trend reversals in this historical election to see where the stock market goes.

Since the decision has been made and President Obama will be “the man” the stock market should perform better and be a bit ready to propel forwards since there is no “indecision” left. I would be surprised to start hearing some more “hopeful” and “positive” words now that Americans have faith as well as other countries that America can create history again.

I also hope Hawaii voted yes for a majority for its light rail system in the city. I’d like to see better transportation put in if I choose to live here permanently down the road.

Congrats Obama! I think you’ll do okay, but President Clinton in my opinion is still kickass.


market continues to fall – I need to be practicing my put options

Another -500pt drop today for the DJIA. A -15% drop for SWN down to $26 again! These market swings are ridiculous. I’d hate to own stock right now OR trade options. It has been very unpredictable so the phrase “missed money is better then lossed money” is sounding better and better right now while staying out of the market, watching, studying, and practicing my techniques.

Put options are the definite play here still. October 2008 is still crashing. RIMM even at $48. One stock I did read about that really struck me as a great turnaround stock once the market changes its mood is AKS – AK Steel Q3 earnings call. Low profits, but still “solid balance sheets” with a PEG of .16!!!! And still very profitable with new material price increases even with steel prices coming down at the minute. It lowered its forecasts, BUT forecasts for the stock and cashflow are still “solid” and bringing in real cash (hundreds of millions). The stock ended today at only $12 with a high this year of $90. I will be watching in closely with QQQQ’s for likely long long term call option positions after the President is elected.


+150% gains on call and put option practice plays in past 9 days

These practice trades stayed in the market longer then I wanted and they actually came out more positive then I imagined with this volatile up down down down market. The best performing in my opinion was my put option practice play on Sears Holding Company (SHLD). Historically the market does start coming up into November so in a way I wasn’t surprised at all to see plays start gaining support and basically up a few points of where I bought them at even with the market continuing going down. I definitely think our market is going down more for some stocks, but for others and the majority we are hitting major support bollinger band points. Usually this means the market is about to fall another big dump or retract and start moving up as I see on some charts like MVL.
I noticed SWN has 3 peaks in it’s downtrend and a big white support candle next to the last fallen peak. At $26 SWN seems like a steal, but sometimes bargain stocks are actually stocks still falling, but I think I will see SWN move back up to $30 again soon.

my practice trades in the market for the last 9 trading days:


my practice trades for the rest of the week put and call options – ICE has a real unique chart currently showing “W” reversal.

currently the only chart that stands out from many perfectly downtrends technical charts is ICE with a plain view “W” support bullish reversal on dailly and 233 minute charts. check it out for yourself. since it’s by itself I don’t think i would trade it as a real trade just because everything is moving down so if the market keeps moving down by force it will too.

put and call option practice trades on V,AAPL,ATVI,FSLR,GOOG,HANS,RIMM,SBUX,EOG,SWN,RIG,NYX,MA,DKS,SHLD,ICE


after -777pt DJIA drop predictable “sold off” rebound begins

I didn’t even realize how low stocks sold off until I saw today before the open. I would have traded short-term like 1 day in/out call options on them especially the good stocks. But if you watched GOOG today it dropped again to all new lows. Scary. Very scary, but awesome at the same time if you were playing intraday put options on it. I’ve noticed in my optionsxpress account now whenever I am looking at financial stocks basically all of them say “no short selling allowed”. They are really starting to protect companies too much. If a trader is short selling a company then he is betting on the company falling for good reasons. In the real free markets there should be short selling. If the trader is wrong he’ll lose all his money so the trader must no something.

Although I expect the market to continue falling I can bet the market with such a large drop and even a large come back +5% across the board on indexes will move up one more day before they continue you to fall. Now that I think about it they may just rally into Thursday when the Senate votes on the bail. A great economic blog called Giving Up Control makes some real points about the bailout, congress, and wolves disguised in clothes.

Here are my call option plays for tomorrow:

practice call option trades

practice call option trades


call options plays worked +45%, RIMM drops hard after earnings release, stocks bottoming

the market seemed to get more optimistic today. warren buffet’s edgy deal profiting from Goldman Sachs (GS) couldn’t hurt. without even looking at my charts i know that congestion would be shown with stocks starting to break out. after the market today Research in Motion (RIMM) dove down on earnings. it just shows how unpredictable stocks are releasing earnings. stocks across the board are down a lot and i’m curious if investors fear more after RIMM’s -20% drop. i do know also the Republican party threw out the bailout plan Democratics were happy with. i’m sure this creates some room for panic and turbulance in the markets as well. i will likely be practicing put options tomorrow unless the bailout plan is passed through law and okayed by everyone. should Fed bernaneke really be taken serious? if he just gave “why” an answer with “facts” rather then just vague statements i think everyone would take the Fed more seriously.

see below call option plays closed today:

call option plays

call option plays


SWN, RIG, NTRI remain strong. Google’s new G1 could be a hit for the stock (GOOG)

stocks seemed silent today and the day before (tue/wed) opened up high for high hopes and then were kind of let down after i suppose all the traders realized now this $700+ billion bailout will be really done by politics. that’s a laugh. it could be weeks or months if they make the decision or never, and who really believe’s fed chairman bernanke anymore? he says if we don’t do it right now then huge side effects will happen. well what if all that bad stuff really doesn’t happen and we let the loser’s lose and not get their pay package? remember, the tax payers are paying for this not the bad CEO’s walking away with their $30 million retirement package. so what to do, who will make the final decision, will their be sometype of real active plan? if i’m going to be paying for anything i sure do hope i get a part of whatever i’m buying.

i’ve been seeing strong reversal uptrend on my charts last week once investors thought the bailout would be quick. what if it isn’t quick? i could really see markets turning if a decision isn’t made. indecision, from my experience, will leave the markets in chaos. they need an answer. i hope its a good one for, EVERYONE. screw those CEO’s that made bad decisions, don’t give them any money or it is like rewarding them.

google’s new G1 could be a hit for the stock not because they are entering the phone market, but because it gets more advertising payment clicks for the company. GOOG also wants their phone to adapt the markets instead of controling it. all these things are great for innovation keeping GOOG a hot stock to watch. likely if people actually get it stock should surpass $500 again easy with all the advertising money it will receive on the mobile market.


put option practice plays – winning stocks i think that hit bottom

currently i’m trading all my favorite stocks as put option practice plays because we just had a mega short rally, the mini bubble burst, all stocks have doji evening stars, and show signs of at least short-term downtrend movement. however glancing at a few stock charts and know how much growth some stocks are STILL having i think HANS, NTRI, and AAPL are real winners and aren’t going to move much down anymore. For one thing HANS and NTRI have been stuck on the bottom for a while and they are slowly starting an uptrend. As for AAPL it has been on a bumpy ride, but going into the Christmas holiday shopping season it should have a better quarter in Jan 09′. Plus AAPL is selling millions of iPhones, regardless of a reduction in price, it is gaining growth market daily. NTRI and HANS are also at the top of Fortunes 100 fastest growing companies. NTRI has been having sour quarters, but still growing so when it does have a very good quarter the stock price could really run. ICE has a huge evening start stretching huge support and resistance on both sides. SWN and RIG are strong currently in energy sector. I think after this third top going down will be a strong support area and that will be the bottom for at least energy, excluding stocks like FSLR which I think could fall a lot more down. RIG has actually broken it’s downtrend so if SWN and RIG are positive this week I would think it is going to be the real bottom and start playing calls up.

see put option practice plays below:

put option practice trades

put option practice trades

Currently where financial institutions are going I would keep playing it a put until things really change. It seems tax payers are really going to burn for corporate errors again instead of the companies paying for their own problems. I admit if a person bought a home they couldn’t afford and they lost it I’m okay with that. It is not the banks fault, it is the customers fault for being stupid. But when the bank screws up I do not think it is fair when the big American federal reserve bank bails them out if it isn’t going to bail out the American working class (although if they did I would want a free house too).


Energy continues to rise SWN, RIG, FSLR – Tech still losers.

So on my short call plays energy stocks SWN, RIG, and FSLR would have continued to increase in option price, but tech RIMM and AAPL continue to fall with charts. RIMM charts actually looked like it was going to spike higher, but I’m pretty sure right now AAPL is influencing on its stock. I think RIMM will take off the quickest once its out of AAPL’s shadow, yeah you heard that right. They follow each other so I wouldn’t be surprised once it wins investors over again to move much quicker past its 52 week highs with a PEG of .82

GOOG yesterday created a fat big while engulfing candle going from $400 to the $430s a big swing showing its strong and no negative news is going to shut down its optimistic growth idea thinking. it’s advertising will keep being a money machine. I wouldn’t be surprised to see GOOG swing back up past the $450’s into the $500’s again this fall as the tide increases.

We are definitely at a low low tide. So the best stocks should start to show some sunshine soon..


quick call option plays – short plays

The following stocks I’m going to try to play short call plays to see if the second day they come back with positive buying if not then the correct thing would be to continue practicing them on puts.


market continues to tank. AAPL news. dead options.

Well as anyone can see the stock market is sliding off the charts. All my charts show a continual fall unless or should I say “when” the market decides to change direction. Currently all tech and energy stocks are creating huge whammy engulfing bearish candles continually. Instead of like 3 bearish soliders its like 20-30 bearish soldiers which really makes me believe change is due sooner or later. I’m really curious what is happening with First Solar – FSLR. Man this stock has been hit hard with Google – GOOG. Both stocks have fallen around -$80 points. Talk about a killing if you were playing Put Options on both of these stocks from the start. You are talking about a small fortune.

Apple recently will have news of new products and price decreases analyst say/think. I can already assume the price will drop if they do lower prices because that lowers margines and growth in big money long-term. It isn’t like bran new products with big margins that grows the capital. Now they are lowering prices which will reflect AAPL stock price lowering. If the low this year was around $112 I believe and its currently around $159. Then if this news is all true of lowering prices even if the iPhone is a hit then buying Puts maybe the smartest action.

My current options in SWN OCT calls are dead and I’ll leave it at that. My account is back to zero. When will I ever have the discipline and be prepared to actually sell out and buy in the new direction I don’t know. Maybe when I have the time to just watch and actually take the action. Seeing these huge slides, no money to trade, and no real time just sucks. These swings are huge and option traders “should” be making money, but then again if you are wrong and you won’t admit it then you probably won’t have enough money left to trade.

Besides all that crap because it is just crap in my life not working out. I think I’m going to use all my GI Bill money for the next 3 years once I’m out to go to school full-time and since now you get BAH too I can actually stash money away in account for another real estate deal while going to school. I’m pretty psyched. Schools like www.fullsail.com and www.nyfa.com are available and fully paid for. I think it would be fun to attend. I’m also considering The Texas Culinary Academy in Austin. I want to hit a big city where I might be able to make a living somehow until my trading starts earning instead of losing. I need to stay positive damnit. I admit its hard, very hard when I just keep fucking losing, yeah. I’m pissed today.


stock market blues? i’m just as lost in these turbulent confused times.

Okay I’ve been reading about these subprime loan blues but are they really making the markets continue to fall? I’m really confused because we received a real 2 week rally in August and now everything is breaking that rally and about to fall lower lower lower. This should not be happening. American’s think the markets are doing bad and they are overly negative which I think is why we haven’t been able to get through this mess yes. Companies are doing good and in return it should be reflected into employees pay working for them. Companies are losing profits they are still growing even if slow growth, it’s still growth not negative growth!!!

I don’t even think any wall street traders went of vacation this year. During labor day weekend and throughout the week the market has had some wild swings not no volume slow days. So I’m lost on where they market will go. Will we have a real crash this year in October as always anticipated? I have to admit my 4 years in the military following the markets has been a roller coaster ride. Last year caught me extremely off guard from the past 5 years I’ve watched the market. So will this year be a surprise too?

I suppose many traders have the stock market blues. Charts were lined up 2 weeks ago to see a positive correction, now, not the same. As you can see my picks from two weeks ago the only winner is HOKU. HOKU just changed its supply contract with China and that is basically the big deal that moved the stock today. Besides that stocks are in a slump especially AAPL hitting supporting $160’s and GOOG hitting supporting $450’s. FSLR is another trippy stock. Now at $230???? Just a week ago is was floating in the $280’s. I have to admit this isn’t a good sign.

Another thing I thougth about is real estate bubble crap. Well lets just SAY home prices do go down more will this hurt landlords rental prices at the current rate? Will our rent keep rising or will it be effected if the economy is really hurting? Because if market rental rates stay the same then the cheaper homes become the better opportunity it will become for investors to buy up more real estate and rent them out at a fat profit and bigger cashflow to their portfolio.

This week I’m going to play puts on all the same stocks except HOKU and see how that works out into next week to see if the stocks are going sideways or downtrend more. Currently my real options SWN OCT 40 Calls are worth $1 and down -200%. Yeah. That sucks and makes no sense, but it isn’t just SWN it’s the entire industry.

call and put practice plays:

put and call plays

put and call plays


Bought V May 85 Calls I-T-M. Thinking a soon sell-off…

I love Visa (V) and I bought 1 contract today at $4. This IPO has a higher PE + double the capitilization of Mastercard (MA) so it should surpass MA in price currently at $298! With Visa @ $86 seems very undervalued and at a bargain price now publicly offered in my opinion especially with a bigger better branded name on more credit cards.

I bought another SWN SEP 40 Call @ $6.10 (same price) so now I have two contracts with the price currently hovering around $7.50 a contract. My GTC is at $8.10 even though I want to raise it I’d rather put it in a faster moving stock like Visa.

I’ve got this subconcious feeling looking at some over inflated stock price charts that some big stocks are ready to sell-off by investors taking a breather and dealing with other factors such as their homes falling in price such as First Solar, Bidu, and Google. Yeah, I know major growth stocks with good stories, but my daily and weekly charts seem to indicate engulfing bearish candles and if within reason (week) or so they don’t move up much higher then they should follow the current down trend further down. I would short them, but I’ve been burned way too many times losing money. So until I see a big break in trend or big move I will not listen to my gutt and instead not trade the stocks at all to be safe then sorry.

I’m extremely confident that AAPL, SWN, and V will continue a strong uptrend with of course dips and pull backs in the markets, but will go UP without reason for big reasons that are making the stocks $$$.

My order on V MAY 85 Calls:
5/6/2008 10:45:47 AM (ET):
Symbol: .VEQ
Description: V MAY 85 Call
Stock: V at 86.93
Action: Bought To Open
Quantity: 1 contract(s)
Price: $4.00
Commission: $14.95
Reg Fees: $0.00
Net Amt: $414.95

GTC @ $8 +100% <— Goal time within 3-7 days


what’s up with apple options. up +6, but option -1.50?

Hmmmm….I thought I would be checking out of my option today, but instead of it moving with the price increase it actually fell in price. I do understand options are adjusted in price, but this usually happens on mondays or end of the month. I’m a bit confused of why my option is now not 6-7 dollars at the strike price of $175. I suppose I’ll have to wait for Apple to make a full move to $175 to sell out at a reasonable profit. I’m definitely glad I didn’t go 100% in with my money because all the May options seems adjusted today by the market maker. That bastard. This is the first time the stock goes up and my options go down dramatically (-25%). Now AAPL at $169 (bought around $163) and waiting for Friday’s movement. With MSFT’s unhappy earnings being a major player in the market it might bring down other tech stocks such as AAPL.

I find it funny that all those blog posters on buying apple inc. on a dip never got a chance unless it dips next week. I think since it had a positive day after earnings that it will continually go up in price for a while with less pull backs proving its a major player in computer sales.

As for now I have to wait until I’m in the money to sell out about up 100%. Two stocks I want to play long-term are Southwestern Energy which just went through a 2:1 stocksplit and moving up at $40 and Visa (V) a new financial credit stock which is highly more popular then Mastercard (MA) and trading at $71. If I had a choice of investing all my money it would be divided between these two stocks and not Apple. I like Apple, but the technology market is weird, although people are always going to use their credit cards and with ever increasing cars oil is still needed and natural resources means big profit.


Apple (AAPL) reversal chart, India business revenue, SEO for keikisitters.com

So AAPL looks like a shiney sweet reversal play in my opinion. On the 3 month chart on Finace.yahoo.com shows definitely upward movement breaking the major trend and the price hitting $140 says a lot about the character and personality of the stock that it will be moving much higher much quicker. I don’t know this for 100% sure, but from other stocks I’ve watched right now with all this new merger/buyout/fed news stocks are ready to make a little run. I plan to buy AAPL Jul 160-200 Calls. My SWN 55 PUTs expired to $0 even though the stock hit $56. I also didn’t get sold out at .25 when it hit my order. It must have been quick. My NTRI options are still in play but $0 right now. I really don’t know what to expect from that stock. I made some shitty decisions that turned out into worst decisions when I chose not to sell my options at a loss now a full loss. I’m telling myself to buy Apple because its been beaten down and its still a rich stock full of postive stories although I am seeing a loss of favoritism in their iPhone projects. People that were once big on getting them now can download the program to make their own phone like a Blackberry (RIMM) phone into an iPhone. I’m thinking the same. I checked it out. It’s cool and all but I can get a neat blackberry that turns into the iPhone for $100 and save $400. Sooooooo as soon as I see a decent pull back in AAPL’s stock from the weekly move that went from $120’s to $140’s. I’m going to buy my options with months and months in advance. Since the stock is expensive getting to buy them in-the-money might not happen, but I’m going to try with what I just deposited of my $3500 worth of rental income for the past 5 months. It is my personal trading mission to make my money back to continue trading with $1,000 into $100,000.

As for my india business venture called Meyer & Ryan International Corporation has won 2 major bids creating over $5000 of revenue for our first month in business. We may profit about half that I think. I’ll probably won’t see my income from it for a while. We are making good contact by using Skype and e-mail. It would be awesome to continually generate $5000-10000 a month from these major computer projects and also soon more staffing income from recruiting.

Lastly I’ve been helping out a lot with Keikisitters.com doing free SEO marketing on the site and giving the owner pointers on where to go with it. I don’t know if she will take my advice and experience or not, but I’m not making a penny. After recently doing a lot of working on figuring out how to profit on her website for her I’ve come to the conclusion that I either #1 need to become a direct competition and start my own babysitting online service or #2 ensure she includes me in a contract on the future company profits. I’ve been broke too long and I really help too many other people in their lives. I’m just waiting for one person really to motivate and help me! =D Well that’s enough of my complaining. I hope she enjoys her high traffic site with my expert marketing tactics.

chao. – fn


No internet!!! – Bought NTRI APR 20 CALLS after earnings, whoops.

Okay I’ve had no internet on the boat since patroling back from Alaska to Hawaii so far. I’m finally able to login and post somethings I’ve been meaning to get around to.

Bought Nutri System after its stock dropped -25% @ $17. Now I consider it a mistake. I was thinking, “well what if it drops again, and again”, but it was pushing through the bollinger bands so I was convinced it would spring back up and move up from being sold off so quickly. Wrong again. Buying Puts on it (you know the trend is your friend) would have been the correct thing to do. I still own the CALLS because I could not sell out. The trade isn’t over yet. I highly likely even with a poor outlook the company still creates continual growth and with one positive news piece the stock with its sold off part should rise which my goal is to $18-19 before dropping again in which I would be sold out. NTRI has done this many times with hard drops. It creates a small peak before dropping lots more and that is what I’m going after. A hard trade? Yes, I picked a very difficult trade.

Here’s my order and it’s logged in my $1000 trade log:

Completed on 2/20/2008 12:21:41 PM (ET):

Symbol: .NSIDD
Description: NTRI APR 20 Call
Stock: NTRI at 17.00
Action: Bought To Open
Quantity: 2 contract(s)
Price: $0.85
Commission: $14.95
Reg Fees: $0.00
Net Amt: $184.95

As for my SWN MAR 55 PUT’s I’ve found surprises with the energy industry and again I’m trying to break its trend! What is wrong with my thinking! I find myself constantly trying to trade against the trend when I see a trade. I don’t understand how at the time I feel convinced these are my best trades when they are really sour entry points specifically for these types of trades. The energy industry is still high right now. On weekly charts its at the top and what I see most important is “spinner candles” forming near the top and this usually indicates a change in trend. I could be wrong. It seems to me 100% that after its big run up from $49 to $64 it would fall some, but another factor a BIG factor I have to keep in mind is that it has earnings Feb 29th. Shit. Realistically this stock should profit off all these high prices and move higher just like RIG did. So knowing this knowledge even if I have a sharp loss if I can keep only $100 because it hasn’t fallen into earnings or just has not fallen with news or oil problems I 1000% should NOT go through its earnings.

My NTRI calls have until the end of April so I actually feel pretty safe although I don’t want to be in a trade more than 2 weeks.


Good news! no no no Bad news! WTF? Surprise open, revised practice trading

So I have to admit today’s open when I opened Yahoo! Finance was just a big slap to the face to me. Everything showed the market was going to open lower and then on Tuesday across the board stocks make a big fat white candle moving up the first 3-4 hours of the day creating a doji evening star breaking the 10 day trend, raising or following up the daily trend, and keeping the weekly in motion. By the end of the day, the last 3 hours, stocks seemed to slowly fall and retrace back below the bollinger bands and the Dow Jones falls hard after oil goes over $100/bbl. It just shows you can’t predict what is going to happen and if you can’t predict or at least come to a sensible conclusion to make trades off of how can I make a trade even last longer then 1 day without forming some type of loss if it doesn’t go my way? This is mine boggling to a trader like me who is trying to write a better trading system (at least on paper). Currently stocks, at least energy – oil, are steadily moving up from January through Feburary 2008. It’s a shock. Shouldn’t stocks still be falling?

Walmart earnings – were they really THAT good? This my view of Walmart and its profits and revenues it discounted all its products meaning small margin for profit and sure more revenues, but not much increase in cash profits coming in. So why did the market take Walmarts news as the best thing ever and raise the entire market up just to get punched back by oil?

Commodities – duh! Of course prices are going up in all commodities because HELLO move over USA now China and India are taking over in major growth and need things to build, eat, and live a higher standard quality of life. I don’t see commodities as a good thing going up because the more expensive prices go up the less consumers are willing to spend and sooner or later since demand will be less in the US companies will shift most of their business to faster growing countries such as China and India.

So, yeah, wtf? My SWN 55 MAR PUT has been hammered. Am I out? No. Why? Personally something smells fishy in the markets and for the most part when oil moves high actually energy stocks first initially fall a lot with the market then move back up (because it makes them generate more profits of course creating bigger margins). So I’m not out. Yes, all my charts are showing the stock moving higher, does this make me a moron for not selling? Maybe. I also think this could be a big reverse where a stock jumps higher but then falls harder the following days. I don’t need a miracle, I just need the markets to make up their mind realize the economy does suck and fall as they should.

Nutri System earnings – wow! I guess it’s a good thing I forgot because I was too busy to watch the stock and put in a CALL option trade on NTRI earnings. The stock “beat” analyst estimates but shouted fear and panic saying “falling profits, lowering outlook 2008” which made the stock fall -30% after hours. This would have been a most disasterous trade. So thank you God for taking my mind off trading since I already knew SWN moved up +5% (bad news for a PUT option). NTRI peg is at .39!!!! But now with a second falling profit outlooks it feels good to play PUTS on it because this stock now with full-blown negative press and no good outlook should fall even more making it an easy short PUT option trade.

Practice Trading Plan – recently doing over 100 practice paper trades a day on 8 different industry has become more of a fun task it has become a JOB, a full-time job clearly. I’m struggling to keep up while also doing my military job and my college classes at HPU. Clearly I need to paper trade less and focus more on just a few stocks. Basically my old plan was practice trading 8 different industries a day and following them a week. Each day I’d do 8 new stocks within the same industries, but it builds up quickly to a stack high pile of papers. I feel I’m not gaining any new widsom from this even though I thought doing more practice trading work on the same 8 industries would help me spot trends and better trades quicker. I think if I did trading full-time I could easily do this why watching the market for the entire day, but I basically give trading 30 minutes to 2 hours a day which is my time limit. I have to figure out my trades after the market closes. Such as today I watched SWN move up 1pt to 2pts to 3pts. This could of been an acceptable real trade if I could have traded it intraday, but I’m working.
I have no excuses so my practice trading plans need to be revised to a better system. Okay I’ve got it. I’ll stick with my 8 different industries but only do those 8 trades a week so instead of around 240-400 trades a month (practice) I will focus extremely hard and consistent on only 32. My goal was to follow day movement to see if a stock moves down or up statistically more on one day then another going Monday to Monday. Then I can review and see how the stock moved throughout the trading week to see if I can find any patterns I could use to trade the stock with a better chance of it moving my way the following day to be sold out quicker.

-fn


Bought Southwestern Energy MAR 55 PUT – short play

My second $1000 trade was on SWN. I made my decision off the daily and 233 minute chart moving down and the 3 and 5 minute charts white candles hitting the upper bollinger bands as an entry point for the stock to continue pulling back from its 5 day run up. Although my trade is currently down 1.45 from my 1.75 purchase if I’m correct and SWN pushes down a bit further before hitting its big trend I should sell out at my planned GTC order of $2.50. That is my goal at least. If I’m wrong about the direction Monday I should sell out as soon as possible, but I think SWN has a higher likely probably chance of pulling back more since it’s close on Friday was below the high close of the week on Thursday. It created a long wick (bad, becuase that’s more bullish with about 10 white candles during the smaller minute charts) created a T like wick. Since it did close below even with my option price moving down with the negative pessimistic news in the markets it should help sell off some more from the past days decent news.

My order details:
Friday @ 1:23 PM
Symbol: .SWNOK
Description: SWN MAR 55 Put
Stock: SWN at 59.49
Action: Bought To Open
Quantity: 5 contract(s)
Price: $1.75
Commission: $14.95
Reg Fees: $0.00
Net Amt: $889.95

Another trade I’m looking at is NTRI earnings on Tuesday FEB 19th. If NTRI moves up into the close before earnings I will likely do a $100-200 trade going through earnings playing CALLS. This stock has NO reason to push down further because even with less growth because of diet drugs, it’s growth in general should still increase. It’s growth to earnings ratio is extremely low. Personally I think if NTRI gives any type of surprise people that dumped the stock might check it out again if it proves even some type of growth and limited losses.


new stock chart trends updated (right – CHART TRENDS)

I’ve uploaded about 20 of the stocks I watch daily, where the trend I think it is going, and commentary on the chart for my reference to see if I was right or wrong for future new charts.

charts updated: (put curser over chart picture and it will give name of stock)
aapl, atvi, rimm, goog, bidu, fxi, dks, hans, hoku, rig, swn, inp, ttm, ma, c, and more.