Irrationally mad decision making to obtain the American Dream.

Posts tagged “NTRI

after -777pt DJIA drop predictable “sold off” rebound begins

I didn’t even realize how low stocks sold off until I saw today before the open. I would have traded short-term like 1 day in/out call options on them especially the good stocks. But if you watched GOOG today it dropped again to all new lows. Scary. Very scary, but awesome at the same time if you were playing intraday put options on it. I’ve noticed in my optionsxpress account now whenever I am looking at financial stocks basically all of them say “no short selling allowed”. They are really starting to protect companies too much. If a trader is short selling a company then he is betting on the company falling for good reasons. In the real free markets there should be short selling. If the trader is wrong he’ll lose all his money so the trader must no something.

Although I expect the market to continue falling I can bet the market with such a large drop and even a large come back +5% across the board on indexes will move up one more day before they continue you to fall. Now that I think about it they may just rally into Thursday when the Senate votes on the bail. A great economic blog called Giving Up Control makes some real points about the bailout, congress, and wolves disguised in clothes.

Here are my call option plays for tomorrow:

practice call option trades

practice call option trades

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SWN, RIG, NTRI remain strong. Google’s new G1 could be a hit for the stock (GOOG)

stocks seemed silent today and the day before (tue/wed) opened up high for high hopes and then were kind of let down after i suppose all the traders realized now this $700+ billion bailout will be really done by politics. that’s a laugh. it could be weeks or months if they make the decision or never, and who really believe’s fed chairman bernanke anymore? he says if we don’t do it right now then huge side effects will happen. well what if all that bad stuff really doesn’t happen and we let the loser’s lose and not get their pay package? remember, the tax payers are paying for this not the bad CEO’s walking away with their $30 million retirement package. so what to do, who will make the final decision, will their be sometype of real active plan? if i’m going to be paying for anything i sure do hope i get a part of whatever i’m buying.

i’ve been seeing strong reversal uptrend on my charts last week once investors thought the bailout would be quick. what if it isn’t quick? i could really see markets turning if a decision isn’t made. indecision, from my experience, will leave the markets in chaos. they need an answer. i hope its a good one for, EVERYONE. screw those CEO’s that made bad decisions, don’t give them any money or it is like rewarding them.

google’s new G1 could be a hit for the stock not because they are entering the phone market, but because it gets more advertising payment clicks for the company. GOOG also wants their phone to adapt the markets instead of controling it. all these things are great for innovation keeping GOOG a hot stock to watch. likely if people actually get it stock should surpass $500 again easy with all the advertising money it will receive on the mobile market.


put option practice plays – winning stocks i think that hit bottom

currently i’m trading all my favorite stocks as put option practice plays because we just had a mega short rally, the mini bubble burst, all stocks have doji evening stars, and show signs of at least short-term downtrend movement. however glancing at a few stock charts and know how much growth some stocks are STILL having i think HANS, NTRI, and AAPL are real winners and aren’t going to move much down anymore. For one thing HANS and NTRI have been stuck on the bottom for a while and they are slowly starting an uptrend. As for AAPL it has been on a bumpy ride, but going into the Christmas holiday shopping season it should have a better quarter in Jan 09′. Plus AAPL is selling millions of iPhones, regardless of a reduction in price, it is gaining growth market daily. NTRI and HANS are also at the top of Fortunes 100 fastest growing companies. NTRI has been having sour quarters, but still growing so when it does have a very good quarter the stock price could really run. ICE has a huge evening start stretching huge support and resistance on both sides. SWN and RIG are strong currently in energy sector. I think after this third top going down will be a strong support area and that will be the bottom for at least energy, excluding stocks like FSLR which I think could fall a lot more down. RIG has actually broken it’s downtrend so if SWN and RIG are positive this week I would think it is going to be the real bottom and start playing calls up.

see put option practice plays below:

put option practice trades

put option practice trades

Currently where financial institutions are going I would keep playing it a put until things really change. It seems tax payers are really going to burn for corporate errors again instead of the companies paying for their own problems. I admit if a person bought a home they couldn’t afford and they lost it I’m okay with that. It is not the banks fault, it is the customers fault for being stupid. But when the bank screws up I do not think it is fair when the big American federal reserve bank bails them out if it isn’t going to bail out the American working class (although if they did I would want a free house too).


working on a trading system…brain as food…new friends

Well I just finished watching Hannibal the movie. It really makes me wonder what brain as food actually tastes like. Is it more on the fatty chicken taste or tofu tasting?? I think if offered some I’d be a weirdo and eat someones brain. maybe I would gain some insight into their life..probably not. At least in the movie and brain in general looks too fatty and squishy looking for my tastes. Now thinking…. Since it is very tender it might actually taste similar to a very tender steak. Anyone offering their brain for a taste test? 😉

I’ve been thinking a lot, trading, and not recording anything down. bad bad bad. I need to get back to working on a stock trading system. An individualized customized system for myself and only myself. I need to get back to writing in my stock market diary and jotting down the “why’s” I’m missing really great data right now going on in the markets.

I’ve come to the conclusion that a smart thing for me to do to help me from not trading stocks I can’t really predict is to start putting my stocks into different categorizations like: stocks definitely moving down, stocks definitey moving up, stocks definitely moving sideways, and unpredictable stocks that commonly trade and make me confused.

For instance AAPL commonly trades right back up after a 2-3 days hit falling down in the $150’s (now back at $164!). NTRI is a very unpredictable stock. Trust me. I traded it to go down but it has moved back up 3 pts since I bought my Puts even though it should be falling or at least I “thought” it should be. I was very wrong even after it fell 5% today. Now I did real the company was buying back stock. Even at that point I was like, “duh, sell the puts now with this company action” but I remained in them. Maybe I’m right long-term but I only have like maybe 6 more days until my options EXPIRE! So I’m going to sell out today for a big loss around a 60-70% loss of my money. yes yes yes, how do I expect to hit $10,000 when I can’t even get back $1000! hee hee. =D leave that up to me. My AMAT calls are working out. Currently up 100% but still not at my goal to sell. Charts are looking sweet for the stock and the market seems like it is slowly turning to the upside even with recent bad news plus AMAT is going into earnings August 12th. I plan to sell my options for whatever they are at on the 11th. I’m starting to learn it doesn’t matter really if you are doing a $10,000 trade or $200 trade if you can’t stop your loss when the market has proven YOU (me) WRONG then you are a really skinny loser more then anyone else. After so many losses, big losses, I’m starting to learn if I want to win long-term in this game like my teacher taught me I need to cut losses asap!….. now why is it so hard for me to? I think my life has been around losing for so long and I’m so use to it I guess I accept it.

Did I tell you I just got dumped by my girlfriend? Yeah, losing there again too in the relationship field. I’m curious really, I wouldn’t even want to date such a loser….so I suppose she had good reason to dump my ass. If I ever expect glory and the high life somehow I’m going to need to start learning winning techniques, attitudes, and most of all how to work on completing winning trades.

Meanwhile I think I met a new friend. I met him at a group costume party and we have similar interests. I found out he lives in the condo next to mine! I mean how cool is that.
Anyway he is one of those really smart uniquely gifted types I completely envy…. Things somehow just fall perfectly into his lap because, well, he is just damn good at what he does naturally after years of work… He is currently working on an iPhone application called xhunt. xhunt is basically a treasure hunt application in which the iPhone user sees a picture and has to find the location and take a picture of themselves with it. The new 3G iPhone has exact GPS so once the user finds the location in the xHunt clue they win or can say they were at that spot in which another user created the treasure hunt. It is a great idea and I plan on being in on many. I’d love to be apart of his team somehow but lets face it i’m just not very great at anything. i’m a jack of all trades, but great at none. so where does that leave me?

well check out his new killer iPhone application here at his sight Logic High.


Mad with myself, Internet Droid I am. – NTRI 17.5 Aug Puts

Okay you know you are an internet droid when you can not stop physically leave the computer for a bathroom break. At a certain point of needing to take a major dump, you can physically feel your terd and hearing it say, “hey let me out, make me happy and free” because you are so fully involved in searching the internet for “nothing”. I sit here at my watch on work and it has been almost 8 hours non-stop searching through various craiglist.org categories for some internet treasure whether it be the “Free” Ads or “Talent gig’s” even though I really have zero talent. Even when it comes to finances I’m really no ninja yet. I am on my path to becoming a real ninja master. I’m daily assassined by masters of the markets.

I mean what have I really accomplished in the past hours and hours browsing the internet for nothing? I’ve replied to 50 something free listings, looked at 10 real estate properties I can’t afford at the moment to invest in, wrote 10 e-mails to people I don’t even get a real response back from, ate one cherry blow pop, drank 1 red bull, 1 dr. pepper soda, opened 4 pieces of mail, checked all my online bank accounts, read some blogs, and now I’m eating French Burnt Peanuts…

I’m mad with myself lately because I’m in NTRI 17.5 Aug Puts. I thought it was a great play. All the charts were down, but now can I be wrong? My options are likely down 50%. I couldn’t stay and watch them so I could not get out. What I’m mad most about is the market. This stock popped up in the last half hour yesterday and for what??? The general market went up but no news would have made this stock go up so much. What is more interesting is that it went down the same amount it went up! This same thing happened the day before but it ended up opening higher anyway. I really don’t ever understand stocks, maybe you don’t have to be a great options trader. One thing I do know is if I don’t get down a good method of being able to constantly be profitable I’m going to be forced to stay within the military another 4 years. I want success in my life just as my poop wants to finally exit my body and be flushed down some mysterious black hole into it’s own heaven of poopy friends.

So as I listen to some old dramatic Moby eating French Burnt Peanuts I wonder what the world awaits for me, but I already know it doesn’t have anything waiting for me except myself to create whatever I want to happen is up to me! And that sucks sometimes when you are more of an itnernet droid then an internet creator. I think I’m much better at making things happen for others and helping them create great worlds then create my own. I don’t know if this is a curse or just needing to find the flower spray to clean up the smell of my own poop that has become like a slave stuck to my toilet.

Anyone have any suggestions for talent-less people who are good at inspiring others, but have a hard time inspiring a bit of real tangible success in their own lives?


NTRI APR 2008 CALLS sold out with positive news on stock

I was lucky and that’s about it with a big news piece on Nutrisystems getting a new CEO and saying new revenue will be much more positive. This news brought the stock up 25% from $15 up to $19.90. My options were sold out right over $19 so I was very fortunate to take a small loss and get sold out before they expired.

Symbol: .NSIDD
Description: NTRI APR 20 Call
Stock: NTRI at 19.74
Action: Sold To Close
Quantity: 2 contract(s)
Price: $1.00
Commission: $14.95
Reg Fees: $0.01
Net Amt: $185.04

Still in positions for AAPL MAY & QQQQ MAY 2008 Calls. Currently up 50% in AAPL calls.
A strong trend is building in Apple after the new iPhone annoucement and lots of positive news on all the earnings the company is making.


Apple (AAPL) reversal chart, India business revenue, SEO for keikisitters.com

So AAPL looks like a shiney sweet reversal play in my opinion. On the 3 month chart on Finace.yahoo.com shows definitely upward movement breaking the major trend and the price hitting $140 says a lot about the character and personality of the stock that it will be moving much higher much quicker. I don’t know this for 100% sure, but from other stocks I’ve watched right now with all this new merger/buyout/fed news stocks are ready to make a little run. I plan to buy AAPL Jul 160-200 Calls. My SWN 55 PUTs expired to $0 even though the stock hit $56. I also didn’t get sold out at .25 when it hit my order. It must have been quick. My NTRI options are still in play but $0 right now. I really don’t know what to expect from that stock. I made some shitty decisions that turned out into worst decisions when I chose not to sell my options at a loss now a full loss. I’m telling myself to buy Apple because its been beaten down and its still a rich stock full of postive stories although I am seeing a loss of favoritism in their iPhone projects. People that were once big on getting them now can download the program to make their own phone like a Blackberry (RIMM) phone into an iPhone. I’m thinking the same. I checked it out. It’s cool and all but I can get a neat blackberry that turns into the iPhone for $100 and save $400. Sooooooo as soon as I see a decent pull back in AAPL’s stock from the weekly move that went from $120’s to $140’s. I’m going to buy my options with months and months in advance. Since the stock is expensive getting to buy them in-the-money might not happen, but I’m going to try with what I just deposited of my $3500 worth of rental income for the past 5 months. It is my personal trading mission to make my money back to continue trading with $1,000 into $100,000.

As for my india business venture called Meyer & Ryan International Corporation has won 2 major bids creating over $5000 of revenue for our first month in business. We may profit about half that I think. I’ll probably won’t see my income from it for a while. We are making good contact by using Skype and e-mail. It would be awesome to continually generate $5000-10000 a month from these major computer projects and also soon more staffing income from recruiting.

Lastly I’ve been helping out a lot with Keikisitters.com doing free SEO marketing on the site and giving the owner pointers on where to go with it. I don’t know if she will take my advice and experience or not, but I’m not making a penny. After recently doing a lot of working on figuring out how to profit on her website for her I’ve come to the conclusion that I either #1 need to become a direct competition and start my own babysitting online service or #2 ensure she includes me in a contract on the future company profits. I’ve been broke too long and I really help too many other people in their lives. I’m just waiting for one person really to motivate and help me! =D Well that’s enough of my complaining. I hope she enjoys her high traffic site with my expert marketing tactics.

chao. – fn


Good news! no no no Bad news! WTF? Surprise open, revised practice trading

So I have to admit today’s open when I opened Yahoo! Finance was just a big slap to the face to me. Everything showed the market was going to open lower and then on Tuesday across the board stocks make a big fat white candle moving up the first 3-4 hours of the day creating a doji evening star breaking the 10 day trend, raising or following up the daily trend, and keeping the weekly in motion. By the end of the day, the last 3 hours, stocks seemed to slowly fall and retrace back below the bollinger bands and the Dow Jones falls hard after oil goes over $100/bbl. It just shows you can’t predict what is going to happen and if you can’t predict or at least come to a sensible conclusion to make trades off of how can I make a trade even last longer then 1 day without forming some type of loss if it doesn’t go my way? This is mine boggling to a trader like me who is trying to write a better trading system (at least on paper). Currently stocks, at least energy – oil, are steadily moving up from January through Feburary 2008. It’s a shock. Shouldn’t stocks still be falling?

Walmart earnings – were they really THAT good? This my view of Walmart and its profits and revenues it discounted all its products meaning small margin for profit and sure more revenues, but not much increase in cash profits coming in. So why did the market take Walmarts news as the best thing ever and raise the entire market up just to get punched back by oil?

Commodities – duh! Of course prices are going up in all commodities because HELLO move over USA now China and India are taking over in major growth and need things to build, eat, and live a higher standard quality of life. I don’t see commodities as a good thing going up because the more expensive prices go up the less consumers are willing to spend and sooner or later since demand will be less in the US companies will shift most of their business to faster growing countries such as China and India.

So, yeah, wtf? My SWN 55 MAR PUT has been hammered. Am I out? No. Why? Personally something smells fishy in the markets and for the most part when oil moves high actually energy stocks first initially fall a lot with the market then move back up (because it makes them generate more profits of course creating bigger margins). So I’m not out. Yes, all my charts are showing the stock moving higher, does this make me a moron for not selling? Maybe. I also think this could be a big reverse where a stock jumps higher but then falls harder the following days. I don’t need a miracle, I just need the markets to make up their mind realize the economy does suck and fall as they should.

Nutri System earnings – wow! I guess it’s a good thing I forgot because I was too busy to watch the stock and put in a CALL option trade on NTRI earnings. The stock “beat” analyst estimates but shouted fear and panic saying “falling profits, lowering outlook 2008” which made the stock fall -30% after hours. This would have been a most disasterous trade. So thank you God for taking my mind off trading since I already knew SWN moved up +5% (bad news for a PUT option). NTRI peg is at .39!!!! But now with a second falling profit outlooks it feels good to play PUTS on it because this stock now with full-blown negative press and no good outlook should fall even more making it an easy short PUT option trade.

Practice Trading Plan – recently doing over 100 practice paper trades a day on 8 different industry has become more of a fun task it has become a JOB, a full-time job clearly. I’m struggling to keep up while also doing my military job and my college classes at HPU. Clearly I need to paper trade less and focus more on just a few stocks. Basically my old plan was practice trading 8 different industries a day and following them a week. Each day I’d do 8 new stocks within the same industries, but it builds up quickly to a stack high pile of papers. I feel I’m not gaining any new widsom from this even though I thought doing more practice trading work on the same 8 industries would help me spot trends and better trades quicker. I think if I did trading full-time I could easily do this why watching the market for the entire day, but I basically give trading 30 minutes to 2 hours a day which is my time limit. I have to figure out my trades after the market closes. Such as today I watched SWN move up 1pt to 2pts to 3pts. This could of been an acceptable real trade if I could have traded it intraday, but I’m working.
I have no excuses so my practice trading plans need to be revised to a better system. Okay I’ve got it. I’ll stick with my 8 different industries but only do those 8 trades a week so instead of around 240-400 trades a month (practice) I will focus extremely hard and consistent on only 32. My goal was to follow day movement to see if a stock moves down or up statistically more on one day then another going Monday to Monday. Then I can review and see how the stock moved throughout the trading week to see if I can find any patterns I could use to trade the stock with a better chance of it moving my way the following day to be sold out quicker.

-fn


Can you explain the solar sector to me? Gained back 70% of my position in First Solar (FSLR) today. Nope I’m not out yet!

Okay. If you are like a stock wizard or professional and for some crazy reason your reading my posts that show me notoriously multiple times over I’m very wrong on stock directions then please comment on the stocks in the solar sector. All my charts showed First Solar (FSLR currently @ $189 + up to $191 after hours up +10%) being technically going up. All the charts had a smooth easy riding sloping uptrend which broke the daily downtrend.

The following day I got hammered losing around 40% of the capital in the trade or $400. Yes I could of sold out and kept $600 to stay alive for my next trade, but there was no reason for FLSR to go down. It was just negative market news bring down the stock. Furthermore FSLR dived all the way down to $165! What a Put play that would have been if I would have just changed positions since I saw realistically the day after I bought it the stock was showing a “dark cloud” a bearish signal showing downwards movement. So I saw my option price go down to losing 90% of its value. Just recently yesterday it broke the 55 minute downtrend and going up again today I’m back at 70% the value of my 1 contract or around $700. In after hours trading FSLR moved up another 1% or +2 pts to $191. I bought the contract at $196. Now that time is strongly against me and I haven’t sold out within 2-3 days of my planned trade I’m forced to see if FSLR will move over $200 as planned going into 4Q results as planned on Wednesday Feb. 13th. This CALL trade was based on movement going into results. Analysts (ZACKS) are currently predicting a surprise for First Solar results. In the position that it doesn’t given stellar surprising results this stock could be extremely punished or shoots up another 10%. I currently need the boost to sell out of my GTC at $20. I’m currently 13 points away in my options so technically the stock would have to move like 20 points or around to the price of $210 within 2 days. Yes, not realistic, I agree too. So if it does spike again tomorrow the day before the results I am going to sell out likely either breaking even or +10-20% ROI. If bad market news comes out and pushes FSLR down I might be forced to hold it through the results. I’d rather miss a move then kiss all my $1000 trade money good by.

Is it that ZACK’s predicts a surprise in FSLR which made it move +10% today? Did buyers just jump in with the stock pushed down a lot? I noticed HOKU at $10.21 also moved around +8% today. I can also agree solar stocks are super volatile right now, but what moved them for these past two days starting this week. It is driving me nuts. I think the next $1000 trade I do will be on a much less volatile stock like NUE, AAPL, EOG, SWN, RIG, BAC. These stocks do move with swings but not -40 pts down then +40pts up in about only 1 week like FSLR has. Good grief! One day when I can watch the market all day I will trade on such a big move and move with the direction in real time. I’m sure many traders are rich just trading such a move off FSLR. Also coming up is Nutri Systems (NTRI @ $24) earnings. The stock has been shorted heavily although with a peg of like .40 and still a lot of growth because diets are a fad. Diets have been going on for centuries! NTRI actually might surprise investors on results and this stock could zoom up in price. All of the damage has already hammered the stock down with bad news and bears eating at it. In a few days analyst could be wrong and institutions buy into the stock again. This stock was in the $70’s before it tanked. It is currently at $24 hitting a low of $20. One of my strategic plans is to buy CALL options on it and go through earnings with only $100 in the trade or 1 contract. Something very small of my $1000 so just in case the stock blows or doesn’t move I will not lose much.


Choppy fall markets continue with late day sell offs and rollercoasters!

So I’m in San Diego, CA on my north patrol portal. This is my first of many I suppose if our boat keeps working. The stock market has been ruff as usually simular to Alaska waters. I uploaded many technical analysis on stocks charts so be sure to see them (flickr pics on right side).

So I’m thinking after looking at many charts that the markets trend is still going down.

My practice option trading would go something like this: [short term plays]

BUYING CALLS on:
Southwestern Energy Company (SWN @ $49) – hitting bottom BB’s with strong trend up with raising oil prices increasing more popularity for energy to increase.
GameStop Co. (GME @ $51) – following strong uptrend and has been sold off even though it is the number one electronics game retailer. Every kid, teenager, and dad goes to this store to buy new and used games. It’s hot, and going into christmas its sales should increasingly rise.

BUYING PUTS on:
Apple Inc. (AAPL @ $172) – Hot product, high price, but currently tech and the entire market makes this stock so vulnerable to any move and I think the next move will be down.
Sears Holding Co. (SHLD @ $107) – Super company, lowering peg, but it seems retail just isn’t the industry to be buying in at the moment. Big downtrends and probably will see lower prices before buying happens.
Macy’s (M @ $28) – Again. Mega store everyone knows, but not in the buying club at the moment. Is anything? Low peg, lots of value, but no buying into it.
Goldman Sachs (GS @ $207) – This financial stock even though has losses is one of the better value you ones that won’t be held down for too long. Low peg of .70, low PE, but the banking stocks are just in crutches. The only banking stock I think should outperform all the others besides losses is Bearsterns (BSC @ $91) because its book/price is $86. I think it will keep bouncing off this support price. Peg currently at 1.06. I think this is the best play if buying CALLS. BSC will be the first to back to its highs, at least I think.
Citigroup (C @ $31) – This stock is going to its grave in my opinion. Mega huge banking system that I feel hasn’t got credit for the billions it has lost yet. But nothing can beat Country Wide financial (CFC @ $8) – This thing is going to $1 in my opinion. Mega PUT stock. You could probably get rich playing PUTS on it if you were smart and had money left to trade.
Google (GOOG @ $666) – Note the price! Scary huh? Stock charts show GOOG flipping over and about to be sold, at least short term. Peg is 1.26 not bad for a $600 stock which really says something, its going higher!
Nutri Systems Inc (NTRI @ $25) – This stock just has big pops (big white canldes) and then tanks. Sell offs. Funny thing is that its peg is like only .36 or something right now. IF IF IF it proves still to have good growth next quarter this stock is going to jump probably 30-50% in one day. Sounds crazy, but I could see it happening being sold off like an ugly stock now, but it is also getting all these lawsuit cases which probably isn’t helping publicity to want to buy it either.
Mastercard (MA @ $181) – Hot stock, super product. They basically just make millions a day off dumb consumers spending credit cards and never paying them off. I’m really not sorry if you are one of them. You have a choice, which is why this stock is going higher, but in the mean time it looks like it is being sold off some.
Ocean Outrigger (RIG @ $129) – RIG looks ready to fall some. Major growth and long-term CALL play in my opinion with rising oil prices.
Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS @ $30) – recent +7% just went to 0%. Falling charts makes this a short-term PUT play. Lots of Tv advertising you should be noticing especially on ESPN. They want to be a number one sports retailer and they are doing the right things to get there and stay there for a while.
China International Index Fund (FXI @ $168) – This stock has been falling and will continue to with the markets/asia markets. Charts show more selling coming.