Irrationally mad decision making to obtain the American Dream.

Posts tagged “november 2010

SWN & Market fall hard Tuesday. – I was right about resistance but right to stick to my plan and take a loss.

So yes it still kills me that had I waited one more day holding my options I would of made 50% instead of lost it, but I stuck to my plan. SWN did fall below $37 to 36.67. However my sell point for my option only made it to .70 and not .75 so I would of had to been watching the market. The option ended up closing around .49 where I paid for it. So it’s a good thing I just sold. It does drive me nuts that I was correct in my thinking the market was due for a harder sell off but oh well I always have another day to trade my $380. I went to a meetup.com group last night for late night computer hackers. It was pretty cool. I kind of couldn’t focus because there were so many beautiful women. I’ll definitely have to go again. I wouldn’t say I got much done on my projects, but I got a start. SWN has started to regain some today. This Irish bailout is a new one to think about with China’s currency deal. They seem to be the biggest news pieces lately.

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SWN lots of resistance but no fall – most of the market fell – lost 40% of my account

So my gamble since let’s face it was a gamble that SWN showing tons of resistance to move higher and looking weak with lots of negative market pessimism would fall another .50-1.00 but didn’t. Sucks. My options immediately fell around 25%. I waited to see by 1pm if the market would head down which is did. Most stocks went negative except for my cheery SWN. Damn you SWN. The retail sales report which was slightly positive on Monday did not help me either wanting the market to dump stocks. I’ll take this loss in pride since I did sell out and did what I planned to do if wrong instead of taking a 100% loss. So now back to around $380 to trade. I’ve lost any profits I’ve made and with a smaller account makes it even harder to purchase in-the-money options. Yes, both plays I’ve done were out of the money options. I basically have enough for one contract. I need to look for a “great” play. I suppose I should always be looking for “great” plays to trade. I haven’t practiced trade in a while and I’m talking a few months then dived back into real money trades. Yes, I’m broke and yes nothing in my life is working out. I always thought or you would think if you are nice and volunteer all your time because you are unemployed something great would happen. Opportunities would burst into the air. The smell of green backs would rest on your pillow. No no no! I don’t think this trade was dumb. I did calculate my probabilities and even I know going into the trade I might only have a 25% being right since on Monday’s options usually going way down in value since the weekend past and time-value has decreased so if I’m wrong I’m really wrong. Well I’m getting better at control even if I’m losing money on this trade I showed myself I could sell at a loss instead of a 100% loss. Plus I’m trading money I shouldn’t even be trading. However I say fuck it because I need to go for gold.


SWN Call & Put Options – Up 200%, Market is taking profits (entire market up around 20% from Sept-Nov 2010)

I just recently sold my SWN Calls up 200% during this weeks move at my GTC target price. The trend continued up so two days later I repurchased SWN call options but within the first 7 market hours (within 2 days) the stock wasn’t moving and my instincts told me to sell for a small loss because the stock dropped a small bit. The charts were still trending up, but starting to look like the stock was getting sleepy and tired up 20% within 2 weeks (after earnings move). I sold my options. Today the stock is down 2%. So I was smart to sell it quickly. The news was becoming more negative with the G20 meeting and China currency deal. The entire market is moving down now and I repurchased SWN put options and plan to sell out Monday if the negative news continues and just ride the short trend. I plan if the market continues to move up this profit taking will be just 2-3 days. If I’m wrong then I’ll sell out Monday anyway. I figure since SWN was getting lots of “clouded doji stars” and spintops at the top it is probably a good indication that the stock traders and institutions are starting to sell some of the profit off and changing their minds if they have a big position. The technicals basically meant (if true) that a lot of resistance was at the $39 stock price level currently. I’m not saying the stock won’t go higher, but right now it should come back below $37 before moving higher. The stock was sitting at around $33 for a while therefor at $39 is up 20% rather quickly. I think it will move under $37 Monday through Tuesday if the entire market continues to downtrend until a final world wide decision is made on U.S. and China currencies.