A person just recently commented on my last post that he “hopes” I stayed in the trade. Actually this entire morning before turning on my computer every single time the word “hope” came as a thought for my GTC order @ $13 came into my head I would try to come up with another word or think another reason rather then hope. Hope is truly a gamblers word. I want to delete it from my personal trading vocabulary. Any other word sounds better used then hoping an investment goes up or down, if I am hope it’s likely a low probability bad trade.
Description: FSLR FEB 210 Call
Stock: FSLR at 219.20
Action: Sold To Close
Quantity: 1 contract(s)
Reg Fees: $0.02
Net Amt: $1,285.03
Total days in trade = 8
Total commissions = $30
Total profit = $300
Net profit = $270 or +27% ROI of $1000
I did not exit the position until after earnings since I did know this stock had a range of up to $280, and if earnings was a surprise this -100pt drop currently at yesterdays $175 stock price could definitely move some points. Now I would consider to use the word luck in this trade just because my option yesterday was at $3 something and I lowered my GTC order since time decay I knew was going to be a big factor in being sold out immediately. It was lucky that the stock went up +44 pts and at the HIGH of my FEB 210 CALL option the call price was $13.30. This means if I had not lowered my call option price to $13 I would have never been sold out immediately in the morning as had I thought in my minds trading plan. The call option price is currently holding at $13 around the $219 stock price. If I would have kept the call option price up 100% at $20 GTC order with the wasted week of time decay and expiration friday even with the stock hitting my goal of $205-220 the call option did not reflect the major in-the-money movement because the call only is good for a remaining two more days.
Sooooo…… I can keep doing is say thank you God. This dude was looking out for me. I’m not only lucky. This call option went up +10 pts so anyone that “gambled” on the high odds likely that First Solar was going to do well because many other solar sector stocks were doing well made out great. I don’t care that I made a profit of 27%. I think now this $1000 trade has been my worst trade even though I made back my money and some profit. Why? You might ask? Well the stock moved down -40 pts, then up +40pts, then down -14pts, then finally up +44 points. As you can see during the 8 days I held on to this option this stock moved a total of 138 pts, and I only traded ONE WAY because I let myself get stock once the stock fell and I did not sell out due to not being able to trade. I basically looked at the major trend of FLSR going up and traded the call going into earnings 2/13 that way. If anything happened ups/down there isn’t much I could do about just keeping in a GTC with my “conviction” that FSLR would move my way, which it did but it didn’t do it as fast as I thought it would. I thought it would move higher faster and then by earnings or day of earnigns lose some points because all the hype and profits were factored already in to the stock price. I’m definitely not a super religious person, but if God is giving me some stress relief this is it!
My next $1000 trade will likely be a less volatile stock. It seems to me the personality of FSLR runs close to AAPL just recently in the past year. Any news highly affects this stock. I need to find a stock I can set up and it will follow through at least technically since most of my trading is off technical charts with fundamental future news that might move a stock. I’m almost certain if I wait to trade until March that a clear trend will be shown even if trading something sideways. One thing I do know is energy stocks should advance higher with oil likely to surpass 100/barrell again.
February 13, 2008 | Categories: $1000 options trade, First Solar, FSLR FEB 210 CALL, FSLR technical chart, hope is bad trading, lucky trade, trading stock options | Tags: $1000 option trade, blog, First Solar, FSLR FEB 210 CALL, FSLR technical stock chart, God, hope, lucky, trading | 6 Comments
So since FSLR fell going into earnings a whopping -14 pts closing just above yesterdays big white candle move up +16 pts. I suspect bad earnings to happen since investors seemed to panicly sell out of the stock before earnings release at 8am before the market open tomorrow. All solar sector stocks dropped heavily today, so it may not just be First Solar, but investors aren’t buying into earnings which are supposedly to be a “surprise”. Think about it though, if analyst say there might be a surprise is it really a surprise anymore? If someone tells you are going to have a “surprise” birthday party it isn’t much of a surprise once it actually happens….hmmm this could be painful tomorrow waking up to see what happens after the release….very painful since my contract is currently at $3.50. It moved up to $10 today but my GTC order was at $13. Shit.
February 13, 2008 | Categories: $1000 options trade, First Solar, fslr, FSLR FEB 210 CALL, FSLR technical chart | Tags: $1000 option trade, blog, First Solar, FSLR FEB 210 CALL, FSLR technical stock chart, trading | 2 Comments
Can you explain the solar sector to me? Gained back 70% of my position in First Solar (FSLR) today. Nope I’m not out yet!
Okay. If you are like a stock wizard or professional and for some crazy reason your reading my posts that show me notoriously multiple times over I’m very wrong on stock directions then please comment on the stocks in the solar sector. All my charts showed First Solar (FSLR currently @ $189 + up to $191 after hours up +10%) being technically going up. All the charts had a smooth easy riding sloping uptrend which broke the daily downtrend.
The following day I got hammered losing around 40% of the capital in the trade or $400. Yes I could of sold out and kept $600 to stay alive for my next trade, but there was no reason for FLSR to go down. It was just negative market news bring down the stock. Furthermore FSLR dived all the way down to $165! What a Put play that would have been if I would have just changed positions since I saw realistically the day after I bought it the stock was showing a “dark cloud” a bearish signal showing downwards movement. So I saw my option price go down to losing 90% of its value. Just recently yesterday it broke the 55 minute downtrend and going up again today I’m back at 70% the value of my 1 contract or around $700. In after hours trading FSLR moved up another 1% or +2 pts to $191. I bought the contract at $196. Now that time is strongly against me and I haven’t sold out within 2-3 days of my planned trade I’m forced to see if FSLR will move over $200 as planned going into 4Q results as planned on Wednesday Feb. 13th. This CALL trade was based on movement going into results. Analysts (ZACKS) are currently predicting a surprise for First Solar results. In the position that it doesn’t given stellar surprising results this stock could be extremely punished or shoots up another 10%. I currently need the boost to sell out of my GTC at $20. I’m currently 13 points away in my options so technically the stock would have to move like 20 points or around to the price of $210 within 2 days. Yes, not realistic, I agree too. So if it does spike again tomorrow the day before the results I am going to sell out likely either breaking even or +10-20% ROI. If bad market news comes out and pushes FSLR down I might be forced to hold it through the results. I’d rather miss a move then kiss all my $1000 trade money good by.
Is it that ZACK’s predicts a surprise in FSLR which made it move +10% today? Did buyers just jump in with the stock pushed down a lot? I noticed HOKU at $10.21 also moved around +8% today. I can also agree solar stocks are super volatile right now, but what moved them for these past two days starting this week. It is driving me nuts. I think the next $1000 trade I do will be on a much less volatile stock like NUE, AAPL, EOG, SWN, RIG, BAC. These stocks do move with swings but not -40 pts down then +40pts up in about only 1 week like FSLR has. Good grief! One day when I can watch the market all day I will trade on such a big move and move with the direction in real time. I’m sure many traders are rich just trading such a move off FSLR. Also coming up is Nutri Systems (NTRI @ $24) earnings. The stock has been shorted heavily although with a peg of like .40 and still a lot of growth because diets are a fad. Diets have been going on for centuries! NTRI actually might surprise investors on results and this stock could zoom up in price. All of the damage has already hammered the stock down with bad news and bears eating at it. In a few days analyst could be wrong and institutions buy into the stock again. This stock was in the $70’s before it tanked. It is currently at $24 hitting a low of $20. One of my strategic plans is to buy CALL options on it and go through earnings with only $100 in the trade or 1 contract. Something very small of my $1000 so just in case the stock blows or doesn’t move I will not lose much.
February 11, 2008 | Categories: $1000 options trade, 2008 hoku trade, 2008 stock trends, First Solar, FSLR FEB 210 CALL, NTRI, nutri systems earnings, solar sector commentary | Tags: $1000 option trade, blog, First Solar, FSLR FEB 210 CALL, FSLR technical stock chart, HOKU, NTRI, nutri systems earning, solar sector commentary, trading | 3 Comments
First $1000 trade
FSLR @ $196.58 – 1 Contract of FEB 210 CALL @ $10 ($1000 plus commission). This looks like the highest probability trade so far.
Notes listed on chart. All of my charts are going up and pushing through BB’s lines building momentum into Feb 13th financial results to be shown. My GTC is up 100% @ $20 or ($2000 sale).
I expect FSLR to move around 20 points in 1 week average 5 pt move a day. My option would have to move around 12 pts to sell me out.
Now I would of liked to wait a little bit longer to get into the trade, but I waited till after all the wild trades were done and entered the trade at 11:11 A.M. EST so I’d make the first move was done to see where it would keep going. I expect it to move past 210 by Friday Feb. 8th and be sold out at $20.
Exact trade details:
Description: FSLR FEB 210 Call
Stock: FSLR at 196.58
Action: Bought To Open
Quantity: 1 contract(s)
Reg Fees: $0.00
Net Amt: $1,014.95
February 4, 2008 | Categories: $1000 options trade, First Solar, fslr, FSLR FEB 210 CALL, FSLR technical chart, trading stock options | Tags: $1000 option trade, blog, First Solar, FSLR FEB 210 CALL, FSLR technical stock chart, trading | 6 Comments