Irrationally mad decision making to obtain the American Dream.

Posts tagged “C

noteable stocks – apple (aapl), wells fargo (wfc), citigroup (c)

Some notable stocks I’ve been journaling over the past few weeks are:

Apple (AAPL @ $100) – up 10% and stock price has held above $80 since the economy got worse.

Wells Fargo (WFC @ $14.50) – Since Warren Buffett made some positive comments on it saying investors will be surprised by better earnings (plus I should mention the positive news on Citigroup) the stock is up 40%.

Citigroup Bank (C @ 2.50) – Positive news on profit in 2009 and on since biggest plunge 3/6 stock is up 100% and will likely continue to climb.

Spicy Pickle (SPKL @ .20) – Not really super big news buzz worthy but for a really really little guy this companies “image” and confidence might make it the next Panera Bread/Star Bucks/Quiznos. They aren’t waiting on the economy to get better they are being innovative and open thinking taking action now to still grow and build their business.

-fn

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when government steps in to bailout market surges up

it seems like when ever the government bails out another company in this case being Citigroup (c) with a “rescue plan” or rumor of one the stock market surged up in the last 30 minutes of trading of the “good” news or is it? look at the automakers…. is it fair that the government only bails out selective companies? i don’t care what the government does i really don’t have much control over it’s decision but i do have control over my stock option trades. i do think if a company made really bad financial decisions then they should go down. let the strongest and smartest survive. so if the asian auto market takes over the usa because they have better management and cutting costs then say good bye to our automakers that created the industry because they don’t know how to “change” with the industry. we need a company that is going to make a big change for the environment and put their business on the line. hydrogen cars have already been made, why not in full production? just stop making normal cars and make better clean energy cars and price them same and i bet people would start buying them like hotcakes because same cost and less gas needed. the problem, oil. politicians still make mega kickbacks on oil so until we don’t bail out oil we are screwed for new innovations in the auto market.

i thought the market was finally going to move up 2 weeks ago, but it continued down some more.
SWN hit $22! bounced back up to $26 and i plan for it to hit $28-30 this would be a definite call option trade if for real. GOOG at $261. wow. hard times i guess on these once big high flying stocks…


market still confused what to do…this week call practice plays only -20%. bailout plan a success? wall st. doesn’t think so.

my call practice plays probably would have done better the day after but i was busy. what happens when you are busy a miss 2 days in the market? more losses for not paying attention. i still had only -20% which still isn’t bad compared to my overall picks and total sum profit %.
i figured the stock market would tank after the final decision has been made on the bailout plan. i didn’t think it would really make a big difference, though if wall street did favor the bill it should have made the market jump higher. so now that the market has fallen, complete opposite of what the news told us, now we are heading into a real october crash. it’s already in pure downward spiral, but will likely dive even deeper. what a mess for a new president. i was for Palin for a long time. well, she’s just freaken hot there i said it, but Obama is the right choice.

here are my call practice plays 9/3 – 10/3 sept/oct end of month.

as you can see it was about 50/50. energy still seems to be bright and wells fargo buying wachovia helped make a big move. wachovia’s a great bank. i wouldn’t be surprised to see it go back to $20-30 once it starts running properly again or make wells fargo worth more. i’m sure citi bank is having a fiss over this only offering $2 billion and wachovia opted out of it. i’m sure there will be hassles over legal issues between all three banks. i’m sure its just a power trip.


new stock chart trends updated (right – CHART TRENDS)

I’ve uploaded about 20 of the stocks I watch daily, where the trend I think it is going, and commentary on the chart for my reference to see if I was right or wrong for future new charts.

charts updated: (put curser over chart picture and it will give name of stock)
aapl, atvi, rimm, goog, bidu, fxi, dks, hans, hoku, rig, swn, inp, ttm, ma, c, and more.


new trend chart technical analysis for January 11, 2008 stocks

I’ve got the time to upload some new trend charts I’m studying to see them just click on the flickr trend picture column or click here to see my flickr page of all my trend charts.

trend charts include: AAPL, ATVI, C, DKS, FXI, HOKU, HANS, MA, INP, TTM, YHOO, GOOG, RIG, SWN, RIMM

check out INP. I’ve seen this stock go from $48 to now $112. Like FXI I think it still has much room to grow with small downs and big moves up with India’s major growth. I believe TTM will start to follow india stocks with its new plan for $2500 car.

check out AAPL. will it get support at current price levels ($172)? major trend will be breached soon if Mac Expo 08′ and earning on january 18th do not give investors reasons to keep charging the stock up. If you look at any other tech stock right now BIDU, GOOG, RIMM charts show in favor of major downtrend to form if negative opinions continue on the economy.

btw – only 70 pages left of Alan Greenspans book! great book and very insightful.


I couldn’t be 100% more wrong. Wishy-washy indecisiveness with markets

So all my short term plays yesterday would of failed today, 100% of them. Stocks have been going up and down each day as if each day is bearish or bullish day. What you think is going to happen next is probably the complete opposite.

Lets looks at Citigroup (C @ $31.32). The entire day the major headline was “Investment group buys 5% stake in Citigroup” basically optimistic positive news article thinking there must be a gem hidden in financials since this investment group is buying them even though again all these banks have billion dollar losses! Although Citigroup really failed to move everything else sure did. I can’t express how I feel about this volatility. If I was sitting at my computer all day and was willing to trade intraday I might really dig it, but when you are trying to trade short term weekly trades this jumpyness hurts. All of my stock market muscles are being broken, pulled, and weakened. I’ve yet to have a come back, make some touch downs, and get back into the game healthy. I’m hurt and probably will be on the stock market sidelines for a very long time. My account now says a balance of $300. “Wow”. Well that’s life for yah, well for me at least.

I’m going to read my bible tonight. I’m going to read it until I read myself to sleep. I’m not much of a bible reader, but I need to start learning better discipline then what I’ve been acting on lately. I know I’m putting what talent I do have trading stocks to the trashcan and if I keep it up I may never trade again because I won’t feel confident enough with so much regret.

Amazingly enough from what I was taught at the end of November stocks are suppose to have a run and move up. So maybe even with all this downside this is that run during the last week of Nov. and I’m playing Puts instead of Calls because I’m so confused. If you aren’t confused and you are making 100% profitable trades then I’d sure likely to know what you are doing.

Now as for practice trading goes I’ve actually have done pretty well for a large majority of my trades on paper. It just seems when I do it with real money I get greedy and then I get slaughtered. Seems like the past four days stocks have trades higher at least for technology. As for financials stocks of fallin except for today. When will all these billion dollar losses change the market? Are all the falling stock prices already priced into the billion lossed? Hmmm….


Choppy fall markets continue with late day sell offs and rollercoasters!

So I’m in San Diego, CA on my north patrol portal. This is my first of many I suppose if our boat keeps working. The stock market has been ruff as usually simular to Alaska waters. I uploaded many technical analysis on stocks charts so be sure to see them (flickr pics on right side).

So I’m thinking after looking at many charts that the markets trend is still going down.

My practice option trading would go something like this: [short term plays]

BUYING CALLS on:
Southwestern Energy Company (SWN @ $49) – hitting bottom BB’s with strong trend up with raising oil prices increasing more popularity for energy to increase.
GameStop Co. (GME @ $51) – following strong uptrend and has been sold off even though it is the number one electronics game retailer. Every kid, teenager, and dad goes to this store to buy new and used games. It’s hot, and going into christmas its sales should increasingly rise.

BUYING PUTS on:
Apple Inc. (AAPL @ $172) – Hot product, high price, but currently tech and the entire market makes this stock so vulnerable to any move and I think the next move will be down.
Sears Holding Co. (SHLD @ $107) – Super company, lowering peg, but it seems retail just isn’t the industry to be buying in at the moment. Big downtrends and probably will see lower prices before buying happens.
Macy’s (M @ $28) – Again. Mega store everyone knows, but not in the buying club at the moment. Is anything? Low peg, lots of value, but no buying into it.
Goldman Sachs (GS @ $207) – This financial stock even though has losses is one of the better value you ones that won’t be held down for too long. Low peg of .70, low PE, but the banking stocks are just in crutches. The only banking stock I think should outperform all the others besides losses is Bearsterns (BSC @ $91) because its book/price is $86. I think it will keep bouncing off this support price. Peg currently at 1.06. I think this is the best play if buying CALLS. BSC will be the first to back to its highs, at least I think.
Citigroup (C @ $31) – This stock is going to its grave in my opinion. Mega huge banking system that I feel hasn’t got credit for the billions it has lost yet. But nothing can beat Country Wide financial (CFC @ $8) – This thing is going to $1 in my opinion. Mega PUT stock. You could probably get rich playing PUTS on it if you were smart and had money left to trade.
Google (GOOG @ $666) – Note the price! Scary huh? Stock charts show GOOG flipping over and about to be sold, at least short term. Peg is 1.26 not bad for a $600 stock which really says something, its going higher!
Nutri Systems Inc (NTRI @ $25) – This stock just has big pops (big white canldes) and then tanks. Sell offs. Funny thing is that its peg is like only .36 or something right now. IF IF IF it proves still to have good growth next quarter this stock is going to jump probably 30-50% in one day. Sounds crazy, but I could see it happening being sold off like an ugly stock now, but it is also getting all these lawsuit cases which probably isn’t helping publicity to want to buy it either.
Mastercard (MA @ $181) – Hot stock, super product. They basically just make millions a day off dumb consumers spending credit cards and never paying them off. I’m really not sorry if you are one of them. You have a choice, which is why this stock is going higher, but in the mean time it looks like it is being sold off some.
Ocean Outrigger (RIG @ $129) – RIG looks ready to fall some. Major growth and long-term CALL play in my opinion with rising oil prices.
Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS @ $30) – recent +7% just went to 0%. Falling charts makes this a short-term PUT play. Lots of Tv advertising you should be noticing especially on ESPN. They want to be a number one sports retailer and they are doing the right things to get there and stay there for a while.
China International Index Fund (FXI @ $168) – This stock has been falling and will continue to with the markets/asia markets. Charts show more selling coming.


Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS @ $32) up 7% since my last post.

Dicks Sporting Goods stores (DKS @ $32) stock price is up 7% from after I reported on its earnings. The sporting goods retail stock has been slipping with all the other major giant retailers such as Sears Holding (SHLD @ $112) and Macy’s (M @ $30). Since earnings it has risen about $2 after being upgraded the second day after earnings by Citigroup (C @ $31). Practicing the play on options/real trade you would of made a 75% ROI on JAN 30 CALLS for DKS. Bought around $2 and sold around $3.50. Of course you would of traded this if you had your head screwed on straight and were not in demolishing belittling DEC 30 PUTS for Apple Inc. (AAPL @ $171.50) up probably 6 pts from where I bought the PUTS which are going to $0. Yes – yes – yes the likely hood that I could of took a small loss, well big to most people, at -$300 on a $1000 trade (-30%). I’m currently at a value of $250 for my 10 contracts. I think Apple is a hot company, but I was 100% sure this second run one the last until the New Year. I was definitely wrong. I think I need to take a long break from trading any stock. Even a majority of my stock practice plays are failing. I’ve also noticed all my very short-term plays (in and out within 1 1/2 day) for the most part 90% work earning an average of around 5-10% per trade because the stock market is currently going up and down so much that by the 4-7th day in my option practice trade my options intrinsic value is becoming less and less even if the stock is going my way. Something I think is what makes Dick’s Sporting Goods a “hot pick” that is bound to go up is because its brand name is advertised all over ESPN’s basketball and football games. It’s subconsciously telling little boys and girls all over the world to buy from Dick’s. I have a Dicks Sporting Goods in my hometown of Virginia Beach and I have to admit its really simple nice store with a very good selection priced for the average consumer.

Conclusions: Well my DEC PUT is good until December 21st so I have a little less than 30 days for Apple Inc. stock basically to fall to around $150 to become profitable and sell out. I am 100% against depositing money into my account. I just “feel” like I am going to lose it! And any trader’s book says if you feel like you are not 100% confident about your trade you probably should not be trading and likely to lose. I know I have better trading skills then what I have been actually putting out. I need to put more research into trading a stock – before I trade a stock. Currently trades I consider won’t work to practice on ARE WORKING so I know it isn’t 100% my error either. The market is definitely a bit nutty with all this bad credit mortgage news and thriving tech companies.

Below is a 55 minute chart of DKS to show movement:
DKS 55 minute chart
(Click on to enlarge)