Irrationally mad decision making to obtain the American Dream.

Posts tagged “bsc

Choppy fall markets continue with late day sell offs and rollercoasters!

So I’m in San Diego, CA on my north patrol portal. This is my first of many I suppose if our boat keeps working. The stock market has been ruff as usually simular to Alaska waters. I uploaded many technical analysis on stocks charts so be sure to see them (flickr pics on right side).

So I’m thinking after looking at many charts that the markets trend is still going down.

My practice option trading would go something like this: [short term plays]

BUYING CALLS on:
Southwestern Energy Company (SWN @ $49) – hitting bottom BB’s with strong trend up with raising oil prices increasing more popularity for energy to increase.
GameStop Co. (GME @ $51) – following strong uptrend and has been sold off even though it is the number one electronics game retailer. Every kid, teenager, and dad goes to this store to buy new and used games. It’s hot, and going into christmas its sales should increasingly rise.

BUYING PUTS on:
Apple Inc. (AAPL @ $172) – Hot product, high price, but currently tech and the entire market makes this stock so vulnerable to any move and I think the next move will be down.
Sears Holding Co. (SHLD @ $107) – Super company, lowering peg, but it seems retail just isn’t the industry to be buying in at the moment. Big downtrends and probably will see lower prices before buying happens.
Macy’s (M @ $28) – Again. Mega store everyone knows, but not in the buying club at the moment. Is anything? Low peg, lots of value, but no buying into it.
Goldman Sachs (GS @ $207) – This financial stock even though has losses is one of the better value you ones that won’t be held down for too long. Low peg of .70, low PE, but the banking stocks are just in crutches. The only banking stock I think should outperform all the others besides losses is Bearsterns (BSC @ $91) because its book/price is $86. I think it will keep bouncing off this support price. Peg currently at 1.06. I think this is the best play if buying CALLS. BSC will be the first to back to its highs, at least I think.
Citigroup (C @ $31) – This stock is going to its grave in my opinion. Mega huge banking system that I feel hasn’t got credit for the billions it has lost yet. But nothing can beat Country Wide financial (CFC @ $8) – This thing is going to $1 in my opinion. Mega PUT stock. You could probably get rich playing PUTS on it if you were smart and had money left to trade.
Google (GOOG @ $666) – Note the price! Scary huh? Stock charts show GOOG flipping over and about to be sold, at least short term. Peg is 1.26 not bad for a $600 stock which really says something, its going higher!
Nutri Systems Inc (NTRI @ $25) – This stock just has big pops (big white canldes) and then tanks. Sell offs. Funny thing is that its peg is like only .36 or something right now. IF IF IF it proves still to have good growth next quarter this stock is going to jump probably 30-50% in one day. Sounds crazy, but I could see it happening being sold off like an ugly stock now, but it is also getting all these lawsuit cases which probably isn’t helping publicity to want to buy it either.
Mastercard (MA @ $181) – Hot stock, super product. They basically just make millions a day off dumb consumers spending credit cards and never paying them off. I’m really not sorry if you are one of them. You have a choice, which is why this stock is going higher, but in the mean time it looks like it is being sold off some.
Ocean Outrigger (RIG @ $129) – RIG looks ready to fall some. Major growth and long-term CALL play in my opinion with rising oil prices.
Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS @ $30) – recent +7% just went to 0%. Falling charts makes this a short-term PUT play. Lots of Tv advertising you should be noticing especially on ESPN. They want to be a number one sports retailer and they are doing the right things to get there and stay there for a while.
China International Index Fund (FXI @ $168) – This stock has been falling and will continue to with the markets/asia markets. Charts show more selling coming.

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Markets jump on HPQ share buyback, but what about all the other bad news?

I’m a bit blown away how the market pops open so high, to trade higher, then fall, and finally to look like a last buy back in. The market sure is choppy for the fall time. The majority of the PUT positions I practiced on Monday actually sold out by the end of the day profitable 10-30% up then closing negative. Apple for instance – if you check out the charts it shows many doji-spinner stars showing indecision. The stock doesn’t know to go up or down, but from the fundamentals, 50-day MA, 200-day MA, and current trend it could be moving down much further soon, or at least this is what I believe especially during December.

The last 30 minutes the market shooted up then suddenly sold off I guess the last 10 minutes of that 30 minutes of the day. My predictions would be that the market will drop lower tomorrow if it was a quick sell off because the Fed’s say, “hey the economy still is having slow growth” + Oil going to higher levels + bad home constructions and sales + did I say unemployment is predicted to raise because of the slower growth. Remember when you have slow growth or slow sales especially in the resturant industry you need to start letting people off their usual shifts early. If the store is selling it can’t keep its workers on the clock if the sales are coming in to use the labor. This is just plain economical common sense. So it does make sense that unemployment should rise if sales are down, construction is down, retail sales are down, because employers should be cutting hours short or laying off workers.

Recession? Likely, but technology is still growing getting positive results. Retail is very much sold off way below 50-day and 200-day averages with favorable PEG scores even if earnings are slow (SHLD @ $111 and M @ $28). So I don’t think recession is coming yet, but cycles are starting to change. The Fed can’t keep cutting rates forever and will likely soon raise them probably next year to manage inflation because currently with super low rates we are generating stagflation with slow growth. I maybe wrong, but at least in textbooks usually after the 4th cut on interest rates then rates will start to rise again. Some Financial stocks are really favorable right now (GS @ $212 – PEG of .69 and BSC @ $93 – PEG of 1.10 and book/sales price of $86, it is almost worth its BOOK PRICE!)

As for my options. My DEC 125 AAPL Puts are down around -60%. Not good. It will probably be my last trade for a long time. So if it doesn’t work and Apple Inc. doesn’t fall then I think I will be just practice trading for a good year or until the entire market down trends with a firm trend and the indecision is gone and the decision to SELL SELL SELL in investors eyes will be common commentary on Yahoo! Finance’s frontpage.