Irrationally mad decision making to obtain the American Dream.

Posts tagged “amat

my big 2009 stock picks – new option practice trades going into new year

hello. how has your stock trading been going these days? currently I’m reading the Dick Davis Dividend. a big fat book with a lot of “i don’t knows” in it. i’m about only 30 pages in to it. definitely a slow read and waiting for the good stuff. i’ve never known a writer so interested in summer camp. i couldn’t stand the ones i was a counselor at so i suppose its how much you dig it.

for my 2009 big stock picks (For myself):

i have a strong conviction that X Steel (X) currently at $38 is going back up up up. it just recently broke its downtrend and slow like a crater tippy toeing back up. i could be wrong and like mr. davis “i don’t know” because there are so many “ifs” in the market that change circumstances, but for now if i bet my life on it i’d buy X call options and the stock (covered calls). even in a slow economy we are still building and so is many growing countries such as china and india. other stocks i see ripe are Apple (AAPL) at $98. it recently hit $110. i see everyone with an iPod and many people i know and people i meet talk about how they want to buy an apple computer. when you go into their mall show room retail stores its stuffed with helpful workers and masses of interested potential and current apple fans. i think another star is AMAT Technologies (AMAT). currently at $10 it is one of those innovative companies and with obama’s energy bill it should strike some wicked fat solar contracts. southwestern energy company (SWN) is always knocking its head with the trend. if you look at the charts its broke its trend and has been moving sideways. its currently on its low so i expect it to move past $30 again currently at $28+ a share. lastly the credit card companies Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V) are both on a tidal wave and likely profiting from this credit mess and consumers going back to credit card use not home equity for all those christmas presents this year for the kiddies. V at $52 still new to the stock market exchange is likely to move quicker past $60 i think.

for my stock trades i’m currently still up +690% since august 2008. if i would have sold out of my last option trades sooner i would have been up more but because i neglected them i lost over 130% on those trades, but that’s okay i’m back in practicing again and that is what counts. i just need to keep practicing even when I see a stock like HOKU at $2.89 and I want to be in it. the more practicing i do the closer and sooner i will get to my goal of understand my stocks better to trade them with less risk and what pisses me off the most is telling me trading in the stock market is gambling. it isn’t if you take real calculated risks which i am practicing on this year.

see recent practice trades going into new year 2009:
12-12-08-fn1

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after -777pt DJIA drop predictable “sold off” rebound begins

I didn’t even realize how low stocks sold off until I saw today before the open. I would have traded short-term like 1 day in/out call options on them especially the good stocks. But if you watched GOOG today it dropped again to all new lows. Scary. Very scary, but awesome at the same time if you were playing intraday put options on it. I’ve noticed in my optionsxpress account now whenever I am looking at financial stocks basically all of them say “no short selling allowed”. They are really starting to protect companies too much. If a trader is short selling a company then he is betting on the company falling for good reasons. In the real free markets there should be short selling. If the trader is wrong he’ll lose all his money so the trader must no something.

Although I expect the market to continue falling I can bet the market with such a large drop and even a large come back +5% across the board on indexes will move up one more day before they continue you to fall. Now that I think about it they may just rally into Thursday when the Senate votes on the bail. A great economic blog called Giving Up Control makes some real points about the bailout, congress, and wolves disguised in clothes.

Here are my call option plays for tomorrow:

practice call option trades

practice call option trades


working on a trading system…brain as food…new friends

Well I just finished watching Hannibal the movie. It really makes me wonder what brain as food actually tastes like. Is it more on the fatty chicken taste or tofu tasting?? I think if offered some I’d be a weirdo and eat someones brain. maybe I would gain some insight into their life..probably not. At least in the movie and brain in general looks too fatty and squishy looking for my tastes. Now thinking…. Since it is very tender it might actually taste similar to a very tender steak. Anyone offering their brain for a taste test? 😉

I’ve been thinking a lot, trading, and not recording anything down. bad bad bad. I need to get back to working on a stock trading system. An individualized customized system for myself and only myself. I need to get back to writing in my stock market diary and jotting down the “why’s” I’m missing really great data right now going on in the markets.

I’ve come to the conclusion that a smart thing for me to do to help me from not trading stocks I can’t really predict is to start putting my stocks into different categorizations like: stocks definitely moving down, stocks definitey moving up, stocks definitely moving sideways, and unpredictable stocks that commonly trade and make me confused.

For instance AAPL commonly trades right back up after a 2-3 days hit falling down in the $150’s (now back at $164!). NTRI is a very unpredictable stock. Trust me. I traded it to go down but it has moved back up 3 pts since I bought my Puts even though it should be falling or at least I “thought” it should be. I was very wrong even after it fell 5% today. Now I did real the company was buying back stock. Even at that point I was like, “duh, sell the puts now with this company action” but I remained in them. Maybe I’m right long-term but I only have like maybe 6 more days until my options EXPIRE! So I’m going to sell out today for a big loss around a 60-70% loss of my money. yes yes yes, how do I expect to hit $10,000 when I can’t even get back $1000! hee hee. =D leave that up to me. My AMAT calls are working out. Currently up 100% but still not at my goal to sell. Charts are looking sweet for the stock and the market seems like it is slowly turning to the upside even with recent bad news plus AMAT is going into earnings August 12th. I plan to sell my options for whatever they are at on the 11th. I’m starting to learn it doesn’t matter really if you are doing a $10,000 trade or $200 trade if you can’t stop your loss when the market has proven YOU (me) WRONG then you are a really skinny loser more then anyone else. After so many losses, big losses, I’m starting to learn if I want to win long-term in this game like my teacher taught me I need to cut losses asap!….. now why is it so hard for me to? I think my life has been around losing for so long and I’m so use to it I guess I accept it.

Did I tell you I just got dumped by my girlfriend? Yeah, losing there again too in the relationship field. I’m curious really, I wouldn’t even want to date such a loser….so I suppose she had good reason to dump my ass. If I ever expect glory and the high life somehow I’m going to need to start learning winning techniques, attitudes, and most of all how to work on completing winning trades.

Meanwhile I think I met a new friend. I met him at a group costume party and we have similar interests. I found out he lives in the condo next to mine! I mean how cool is that.
Anyway he is one of those really smart uniquely gifted types I completely envy…. Things somehow just fall perfectly into his lap because, well, he is just damn good at what he does naturally after years of work… He is currently working on an iPhone application called xhunt. xhunt is basically a treasure hunt application in which the iPhone user sees a picture and has to find the location and take a picture of themselves with it. The new 3G iPhone has exact GPS so once the user finds the location in the xHunt clue they win or can say they were at that spot in which another user created the treasure hunt. It is a great idea and I plan on being in on many. I’d love to be apart of his team somehow but lets face it i’m just not very great at anything. i’m a jack of all trades, but great at none. so where does that leave me?

well check out his new killer iPhone application here at his sight Logic High.