Irrationally mad decision making to obtain the American Dream.

swn

SWN Call & Put Options – Up 200%, Market is taking profits (entire market up around 20% from Sept-Nov 2010)

I just recently sold my SWN Calls up 200% during this weeks move at my GTC target price. The trend continued up so two days later I repurchased SWN call options but within the first 7 market hours (within 2 days) the stock wasn’t moving and my instincts told me to sell for a small loss because the stock dropped a small bit. The charts were still trending up, but starting to look like the stock was getting sleepy and tired up 20% within 2 weeks (after earnings move). I sold my options. Today the stock is down 2%. So I was smart to sell it quickly. The news was becoming more negative with the G20 meeting and China currency deal. The entire market is moving down now and I repurchased SWN put options and plan to sell out Monday if the negative news continues and just ride the short trend. I plan if the market continues to move up this profit taking will be just 2-3 days. If I’m wrong then I’ll sell out Monday anyway. I figure since SWN was getting lots of “clouded doji stars” and spintops at the top it is probably a good indication that the stock traders and institutions are starting to sell some of the profit off and changing their minds if they have a big position. The technicals basically meant (if true) that a lot of resistance was at the $39 stock price level currently. I’m not saying the stock won’t go higher, but right now it should come back below $37 before moving higher. The stock was sitting at around $33 for a while therefor at $39 is up 20% rather quickly. I think it will move under $37 Monday through Tuesday if the entire market continues to downtrend until a final world wide decision is made on U.S. and China currencies.

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Dow continues to rise. SWN up 10% after earnings – Nov 10′, Gold on the rise

SWN @ $36 is up 10% since earnings and moving with the Dow and strong trends of gas prices going up. It has a huge reserve keeping the company profitable. The Dow continues to rise even though fairs of inflation continue to rise with the U.S. dollar weakening. GOOG and AAPL I feel are also getting a boost. I continually see more ipads being used in the NYC subway. For around every 20 riders I see someone holding an ipad and 15 others wearing ipods and around 10 of those holding iphones. Apple Inc. is definitely still in growth saturating the market and has a mighty fan base. Current I’ve been following Gold also at 1391 ounce. I joined My Gold Rush USA, a gold home based business opportunity, where you can get 10% of gold American Eagle Coins. That is kind of a big deal when you think of a discount of 10% on $1445 an ounce for American Eagle coins that is $144.50 in gold discount. For more information on getting these coins at a discount check out My Gold Rush USA.


markets continue to rally over weak dollar – SWN earnings

well I suppose everyone is a bit confused, but I continue to trade with the trend. they say our dollar is going to junk level. i highly doubt that anytime soon and these economists are over analyzing data.

however i actually had a scary dream the markets crashed a huge percent and i only had the next day to get out of a call position or my account would be wiped out.

today though the markets continue to go up and i’m playing and earnings trade with Southwestern Energy (SWN) the stock has done much. it’s earnings is Oct 28th. it is actually at a 52 week low period something i did not even taken into the equation when trading it with real money. damnit. well it’s a bad sign. it has moved up 10% and going into winter it earns more money, but going into earnings this could mean the stock is weaker than i expected. i guess i’ll see this thursday.


Apple (AAPL) hits $140 & Southwestern Energy (SWN) hits $46 as I predicted in early May 09′

AAPL @ $140 from a low of almost $122 two weeks earlier.  I knew it was a minor set back and going into their expo/product annoucements for early June 09′ would make the stock wtih increasingly more buzz around people switching computers.  I think most investors and regular average Joe’s think Apple’s stock “hotness” is over, but I think it is really just half way through.  Apple first started with the iPods to gain customers, then got them hooked on their computers, then onto iPhones, then back to laptops, and now Apple just needs to offer the new home entertainment experience which they are getting close to with the iTV.  Their products keep improving and so will their stock.  The health of Steve Jobs the “visionary’ doesn’t help say if he did die or had to step down I’m sure that would put a downer on the stock.  In the meantime hower AAPL’s stock should rise again like GOOG.  I’m on with my targets hitting $140.  It should hit $145 before June 6th which is the predicted annoucements.  From there it could jump to $160-180 target price if really good news or a new product.

As for Southwestern Energy Company (SWN) it hit my target price of $46.  Recently moving in waves and now staying above the $40 price level.  If I was trading call options I would have made some killer profits in the 200-500% range with both stocks moving 10pts in a month up and down.

Both AAPL and SWN have received upgrades from respectable brokerage firms noted Goldman Sachs for AAPL.  This could be an unpredictable summer.  I was taught for the most summers and the stock market fall.  Basically “come May go away”, but since there is a BIG smiley face on most charts (big rising valley U) I would almost predict some stocks will hit new highs in the summer going into the fall.

My fingers are still crossed about the Hawaii Real Estate market.  I know eventually prices will increase, but I’d love to see some volatile high ones within the next year so I can sell my condo for a fat profit as planned because I got it for dirt cheap.  Another part of me says make your loot in the market, pay it off, and keep a long-term vacation home.  Well I’ll see what happens first.


Thinking positive about the likelyhood of Wed’s bad economic news

Well we have a line up of great bad news that will likely make the market drop tomorrow regardless of HPQ’s good earnings for tech. Building permits, CORE CPI, CPI, Housing Starts, and FOMC minutes. I’d like all of these to be horrible econimic reports telling the same story we’ve been hearing since the the beginning of the new year 2008. Housing is down, building is down (because of the high cost of commodities rising), and most importantly the fed minutes scare investors out of stocks making SWN fall so my PUTS which I initially thought was the best position will still go in my thought out direction! Muhahah. I am evil, well not really, but I’d like to see some selling off of stocks tomorrow (no offense moomin with your big portfolio, and can you explain what “honeyweek” is?).


Bought Southwestern Energy MAR 55 PUT – short play

My second $1000 trade was on SWN. I made my decision off the daily and 233 minute chart moving down and the 3 and 5 minute charts white candles hitting the upper bollinger bands as an entry point for the stock to continue pulling back from its 5 day run up. Although my trade is currently down 1.45 from my 1.75 purchase if I’m correct and SWN pushes down a bit further before hitting its big trend I should sell out at my planned GTC order of $2.50. That is my goal at least. If I’m wrong about the direction Monday I should sell out as soon as possible, but I think SWN has a higher likely probably chance of pulling back more since it’s close on Friday was below the high close of the week on Thursday. It created a long wick (bad, becuase that’s more bullish with about 10 white candles during the smaller minute charts) created a T like wick. Since it did close below even with my option price moving down with the negative pessimistic news in the markets it should help sell off some more from the past days decent news.

My order details:
Friday @ 1:23 PM
Symbol: .SWNOK
Description: SWN MAR 55 Put
Stock: SWN at 59.49
Action: Bought To Open
Quantity: 5 contract(s)
Price: $1.75
Commission: $14.95
Reg Fees: $0.00
Net Amt: $889.95

Another trade I’m looking at is NTRI earnings on Tuesday FEB 19th. If NTRI moves up into the close before earnings I will likely do a $100-200 trade going through earnings playing CALLS. This stock has NO reason to push down further because even with less growth because of diet drugs, it’s growth in general should still increase. It’s growth to earnings ratio is extremely low. Personally I think if NTRI gives any type of surprise people that dumped the stock might check it out again if it proves even some type of growth and limited losses.


new stock chart trends updated (right – CHART TRENDS)

I’ve uploaded about 20 of the stocks I watch daily, where the trend I think it is going, and commentary on the chart for my reference to see if I was right or wrong for future new charts.

charts updated: (put curser over chart picture and it will give name of stock)
aapl, atvi, rimm, goog, bidu, fxi, dks, hans, hoku, rig, swn, inp, ttm, ma, c, and more.


Apple Inc. (AAPL) @ $155 falls -10% after hours to $137 on earnings, my reasoning on AAPL

Apple Inc. (AAPL) earnings disappointment was pretty predictable with all these other big tech players falling also after good earnings. I don’t like to say “I told you so”, but this stock has been ready to fall hard. From the beginning of the year 2008 this stock has just trembled at every market moving news. Since it did not move UP into its big deal Mac Expo and analyst were boo-hooing the new products that should of made ANY Apple investor worried. Other Apple speculators are saying, “I’m buying AAPL on sell off” well I think they are very wrong on that decision. When a stock has fallen, then falls harder, you are going to buy it on the rush of a sell of? Are you crazy? For a prized stock that is falling there is good reason not to be buying.

This sums it up quoted in an associated press article:

“Apple’s guidance has historically been conservative, but such a divergence from Wall Street’s estimate rattled investors already skittish about the economy.”

“Tuesday’s stock plunge was likely worsened, Snorek said, by the exodus of a large number of investors who had hoped Apple’s stock would be a refuge from the economic pressures hurting the overall stock market.” – Jordan Robertson, AP Technology Writer

One good point is that Apple Inc. guidance is ALWAYS “conservative” so since they told investors their outlook would show some slower growth (duh!!! look at whats going on with other consumer growth stocks and their partner AT&T (T)) no wonder why AAPL dropped after earnings (just like the stock does many times over). Now will AAPL’s stock fall more? I’m sure of it. Will it continue on big charts to move up with hot products? Most definitely. This is a short-term hard down move, but likely to continue so if I was you or myself I wouldn’t be in a buying position of Apple Inc. anytime soon until the economy shows some recovery and Tech stocks show a real correction and real buying from bigger institutions. AT&T reported consumers slowed on buying bigger plans and defaulted on normal ones. Hello! This just proves that slow growth should happen on the iPhone since consumers can already not affoard their normal cellular plans.

Look at Hansen Foods (HANS) stocks has been falling with its major Monster Energy Drink brans, especially big in the X-Games, has been falling hard even with a peg of 1.06. This stock still has a bright growth future, but now are teenagers buying less $2 energy drinks? (or is it really the parents lower on cash so don’t buy the more expensive brand drinks?)

Oil prices at the pump haven’t changed much. I think most automobile consumersr are getting used to $3 gasoline prices which are liked to get a boost again with increasing oil prices that shouldn’t slow down anytime soon which will keep boosting profits for stocks like Southwestern Energy (SWN @ 51) and Ocean Outriggers (RIG @ $124).

I think solar stocks like First Solar (FSLR) and HOKU Scientific (HOKU @ $9.20) are likely to fall until a new President is in place and makes a real energy plan to keep boosting production and make solar “special” again. If you have been reading the reports 2009 will be a HUGE year for solar companies just because by then their new production plants will be made and producing tons of polycillicon very wanted in the industry going up in price making these small solar companies worth and valued you more in stock price (then they currently are).

But back to Apple Inc. I like the new laptop Air, I might even buy me one because they are the first to use flash memory for the harddrive. If you aren’t a computer nerd this means faster processing times, less harddrive crashes, and more efficient system. This could be a huge seller. Who cares that it is thin. It uses a flash harddrive and of course very sleek and hot looking. I don’t know how far Apple Inc. will drop, but I’m think below $100 (which would create a peg of 1.00). Where do I think it will be by November 2008 earnings? Hmm. Depends if these rate cuts do the trick and creates more money so people keep buying gadgets. If Apple continues to take more market share there is no reason its stock won’t stop charging pass $200 again. I think realistically Apple might do a 2:1 stocksplit since they just lost $40 billion in share holder value, maybe a split at $100, might get people think to buy it at $50 is cheap (even though its the same price/value). I like Apple. It really trys to innovate and create “new” and that is a company anyone wants to own. I should note the downgrade it got today just throws “warning signs” for future downtrend. Downgrade on Apple? Are you crazy analyst, well not so crazy at least for now…

Quote cited from:
Yahoo! Finance Associated Press Article on Apple Earnings


new trend chart technical analysis for January 11, 2008 stocks

I’ve got the time to upload some new trend charts I’m studying to see them just click on the flickr trend picture column or click here to see my flickr page of all my trend charts.

trend charts include: AAPL, ATVI, C, DKS, FXI, HOKU, HANS, MA, INP, TTM, YHOO, GOOG, RIG, SWN, RIMM

check out INP. I’ve seen this stock go from $48 to now $112. Like FXI I think it still has much room to grow with small downs and big moves up with India’s major growth. I believe TTM will start to follow india stocks with its new plan for $2500 car.

check out AAPL. will it get support at current price levels ($172)? major trend will be breached soon if Mac Expo 08′ and earning on january 18th do not give investors reasons to keep charging the stock up. If you look at any other tech stock right now BIDU, GOOG, RIMM charts show in favor of major downtrend to form if negative opinions continue on the economy.

btw – only 70 pages left of Alan Greenspans book! great book and very insightful.


Choppy fall markets continue with late day sell offs and rollercoasters!

So I’m in San Diego, CA on my north patrol portal. This is my first of many I suppose if our boat keeps working. The stock market has been ruff as usually simular to Alaska waters. I uploaded many technical analysis on stocks charts so be sure to see them (flickr pics on right side).

So I’m thinking after looking at many charts that the markets trend is still going down.

My practice option trading would go something like this: [short term plays]

BUYING CALLS on:
Southwestern Energy Company (SWN @ $49) – hitting bottom BB’s with strong trend up with raising oil prices increasing more popularity for energy to increase.
GameStop Co. (GME @ $51) – following strong uptrend and has been sold off even though it is the number one electronics game retailer. Every kid, teenager, and dad goes to this store to buy new and used games. It’s hot, and going into christmas its sales should increasingly rise.

BUYING PUTS on:
Apple Inc. (AAPL @ $172) – Hot product, high price, but currently tech and the entire market makes this stock so vulnerable to any move and I think the next move will be down.
Sears Holding Co. (SHLD @ $107) – Super company, lowering peg, but it seems retail just isn’t the industry to be buying in at the moment. Big downtrends and probably will see lower prices before buying happens.
Macy’s (M @ $28) – Again. Mega store everyone knows, but not in the buying club at the moment. Is anything? Low peg, lots of value, but no buying into it.
Goldman Sachs (GS @ $207) – This financial stock even though has losses is one of the better value you ones that won’t be held down for too long. Low peg of .70, low PE, but the banking stocks are just in crutches. The only banking stock I think should outperform all the others besides losses is Bearsterns (BSC @ $91) because its book/price is $86. I think it will keep bouncing off this support price. Peg currently at 1.06. I think this is the best play if buying CALLS. BSC will be the first to back to its highs, at least I think.
Citigroup (C @ $31) – This stock is going to its grave in my opinion. Mega huge banking system that I feel hasn’t got credit for the billions it has lost yet. But nothing can beat Country Wide financial (CFC @ $8) – This thing is going to $1 in my opinion. Mega PUT stock. You could probably get rich playing PUTS on it if you were smart and had money left to trade.
Google (GOOG @ $666) – Note the price! Scary huh? Stock charts show GOOG flipping over and about to be sold, at least short term. Peg is 1.26 not bad for a $600 stock which really says something, its going higher!
Nutri Systems Inc (NTRI @ $25) – This stock just has big pops (big white canldes) and then tanks. Sell offs. Funny thing is that its peg is like only .36 or something right now. IF IF IF it proves still to have good growth next quarter this stock is going to jump probably 30-50% in one day. Sounds crazy, but I could see it happening being sold off like an ugly stock now, but it is also getting all these lawsuit cases which probably isn’t helping publicity to want to buy it either.
Mastercard (MA @ $181) – Hot stock, super product. They basically just make millions a day off dumb consumers spending credit cards and never paying them off. I’m really not sorry if you are one of them. You have a choice, which is why this stock is going higher, but in the mean time it looks like it is being sold off some.
Ocean Outrigger (RIG @ $129) – RIG looks ready to fall some. Major growth and long-term CALL play in my opinion with rising oil prices.
Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS @ $30) – recent +7% just went to 0%. Falling charts makes this a short-term PUT play. Lots of Tv advertising you should be noticing especially on ESPN. They want to be a number one sports retailer and they are doing the right things to get there and stay there for a while.
China International Index Fund (FXI @ $168) – This stock has been falling and will continue to with the markets/asia markets. Charts show more selling coming.


Human Resoures – Not an easy job. Stocks – AAPL, SWN

Recently I’ve just started a fasttrack college course for an upper level Human Resources class. HR is much harder then I expected. I thought it would be cake! I give HR people much more credit now having to understand all the laws, rules, and regulations on hiring and planning your workforce. Being an HR takes brains I do not have to spare.

For stocks AAPL @ $138 has just been waiting for something to make it move. The news of its 1 millionth iPhone sale is good news to my options which are now in the negative again since I did not sell them when God gave me the choice to up a couple grand. I’m going to stick to my guns about AAPL stock moving much higher. I have to admit the $10 g’s I put into the options can not lose since that money is needed for another mobile home park I’m interested in buying. AAPL currently has a strong upward trend and I count on it to move much higher into Oct if more, many more, iPhones are sold. It’s a hot product and with the price reduction it should sell much more because a new “i” trend product. I’d like to make $20 g’s on AAPL options move the initial $10 g’s out into my escrow for my down payment and use the profits to buy more options. Another stock moving right along which has 100% broken it’s downward trend is SWN. SWN @ $42 now is steadily moving up with new $80 oil highs. Historically both stocks AAPL and SWN and NTRI have moved up end of August into October.

Currently I’m in “C” school for my military rate. It’s awesome. I’d really like to live the college dorm life even in my 30’s. Good food, exercise, computers labs, and young beautiful women. It doesn’t get much better then this. I feel so relaxed and no stress bothering me except getting business deals completed and selling out of stocks profitably.

So far I was wrong about SWN options since I bought them way way too early in Aug and now in Sept they will expire when the stock is just started to move up the past 6 days.
My NYX options that end is Sept have no chance since the stock is so hated. NYX should be a powerhouse and maybe one day it will be trading very high, but for now it doesn’t move past the $80’s.

I’m keeping an eye on NTRI which has moved down to $48 and now strong up into the $55’s. RIG @ $105 is still in the .31 PEG. Unbelieveable if you ask me.


SouthWestern Energy Company (SWN) + Nutrisystem Inc. (NTRI) Forecast

Stock Alert: Southwestern Energy Company (SWN @ $40)

Search back the google chart from 2003 every end of Jul up to now and the only year that was not consistent was year 2007 when instead of moving up in Aug it moved up in Oct. My bets are on meeting its $50-60 price target before 2008. All profits are up, revenues are revised with previous shale mill up and running again, and its PEG for 5 year is down to 1.06 showing more value in the current price. I might also say its only receiving Buy and Buy with higher and higher target estimates with Oil moving higher and higher in price this company should still considerable profit from alternative fuels. Southwestern Energy Company convinces me through technicals, news, analyst upgrades, and low PEG with high PE and higher earnings predictions that this stock will move higher. If I’m write I should be a bit wealthier.

If you are thinking about buying Calls for Nutrisystem Inc. (NTRI @ $56) you are probably thinking right. I don’t own any options right now with NTRI, but waiting for charts to signal a buy after some movement. The PEG is at a staggering low .68!!!! Talk about value with growth and profits. I bought CALLS on NTRI when the stock was around $47 and sold after it hit around $51 because it was just jumping up and down. Now I kick myself in the balls seeing it hit over $65, but I sold and made some and “won the lottery” in the system. Now with the PEG which is my main predictor where or if they stock goes higher is in a great zone under 1.00. With summer trading I feel I should hold out until at least Sept. If I see some buybacking in it then I’ll buy Calls then. Right now the market is being weird as usually. It’s august a time I try to buy calls and lose all my money because I didn’t buy Puts.

What kills me even more are the gas drillers like NE and GFE and RIG which all PEG’s are under .40 and some .28!!! Almost book value growth to earnings. And there forecasts for earnings are higher then the PE’s shown which is a very good thing. I’m just waiting until I’m complete sure where I think the stock will go. RIG a hot stock is currently getting hit and its broken through a major trend pushing down. NTRI is a weightloss stock. I suspect nothing more then yoyo stock holders.


HOKU, AAPL, SWN, NYX – Latest news on the trailor park

After HOKU earnings the stock plummeted to $8 and I totally expected it to fall. Everyone knew they weren’t going to show a profit and it is still very much a speculation stock because it hasn’t been able to start production yet. I’m with Jim Crammer about people rebuying it at a lower price and it moves up again throughout the year on its speculation of being the #1 for alternative energy. Our world is moving in that direction so I could only expect growth. As for AAPL it’s iPhone has been a success, but the market is turning over and its stock is finally starting to become submissive to all the selling. I’d buy AAPL later, but I see it moving much further down into the possible $110’s before it moves into the $200’s. If AAPL is able to continue momentum then I’d buy Calls on it if it moves past $150. Then it will be fighting the selling, but investors are true believers in it. It’s PEG score also has moved down to around 1.66 from over 2.00. So its value has gone up as well with its super profitable earnings. SWN’s charts have been showing a flip to oil/gas companies. Its major trend on the Daily and Weekly are going down with all smaller charts. Just yesterday it bumped up because it was slammed down into the Bollinger bands. I expect it to keep moving further down in the lower $30’s. I’m playing SEP 07 35 Puts on it currently up around 10%. I plan to sell out once it hits around $35 if I’m correct. NYX is always a confusing stock. You’d think this stock would be doing what ICE is doing, but it isn’t. I’m in Calls and I think I’m going to lose my entire $7,000 investment if by Sept. it doesn’t move higher than $87. At its current price of around $74 I’m left dumbfounded and believing in the stock that makes me seem living life a bit bicariously. NYX has had almost 4 major falls with small peaks. This stock has to pop high if on Aug 2nd earnings are awesome and profits are up. It should pop past $90 because there hasn’t been much news on it. So if it surprises investors and analysis it could finally get back in the game and be a more volatile stock like it use to be. If you are currently playing Puts on it you are probably a lot more correct and wise thinking then myself.

As for the good old trailor park I bought. I’ve been working with my property manager. I’ve been trying to get the cable tv hooked back up because it was disconnected before I could transfer it into my name. Two of the tenants are refusing to pay their rent because they are not receiving cable tv. Can you believe this? I’ve never heard of such a moron of a tenant in my life! I told him to turn off their electricity and gas that day until they paid their rent or enforce them to be evicted that week. I’m not going to tollerate this type of behavior. Business is business and you pay your rent regardless if you get cable tv or not. I pay for their housing and all utilities. Cable tv is a luxury. I only see future problems with very low income low education tenants like this in the future. I’m trying to move all the tenants in and rent the trailors properly with full leases, applications, and deposits so I don’t get shitted on. If I’m going to make this profitable I need to take the steps to make it profitable and not deal with unacceptable tenants.