Well we have a line up of great bad news that will likely make the market drop tomorrow regardless of HPQ’s good earnings for tech. Building permits, CORE CPI, CPI, Housing Starts, and FOMC minutes. I’d like all of these to be horrible econimic reports telling the same story we’ve been hearing since the the beginning of the new year 2008. Housing is down, building is down (because of the high cost of commodities rising), and most importantly the fed minutes scare investors out of stocks making SWN fall so my PUTS which I initially thought was the best position will still go in my thought out direction! Muhahah. I am evil, well not really, but I’d like to see some selling off of stocks tomorrow (no offense moomin with your big portfolio, and can you explain what “honeyweek” is?).
I’ve uploaded about 20 of the stocks I watch daily, where the trend I think it is going, and commentary on the chart for my reference to see if I was right or wrong for future new charts.
Apple Inc. (AAPL) earnings disappointment was pretty predictable with all these other big tech players falling also after good earnings. I don’t like to say “I told you so”, but this stock has been ready to fall hard. From the beginning of the year 2008 this stock has just trembled at every market moving news. Since it did not move UP into its big deal Mac Expo and analyst were boo-hooing the new products that should of made ANY Apple investor worried. Other Apple speculators are saying, “I’m buying AAPL on sell off” well I think they are very wrong on that decision. When a stock has fallen, then falls harder, you are going to buy it on the rush of a sell of? Are you crazy? For a prized stock that is falling there is good reason not to be buying.
This sums it up quoted in an associated press article:
“Apple’s guidance has historically been conservative, but such a divergence from Wall Street’s estimate rattled investors already skittish about the economy.”
“Tuesday’s stock plunge was likely worsened, Snorek said, by the exodus of a large number of investors who had hoped Apple’s stock would be a refuge from the economic pressures hurting the overall stock market.” – Jordan Robertson, AP Technology Writer
One good point is that Apple Inc. guidance is ALWAYS “conservative” so since they told investors their outlook would show some slower growth (duh!!! look at whats going on with other consumer growth stocks and their partner AT&T (T)) no wonder why AAPL dropped after earnings (just like the stock does many times over). Now will AAPL’s stock fall more? I’m sure of it. Will it continue on big charts to move up with hot products? Most definitely. This is a short-term hard down move, but likely to continue so if I was you or myself I wouldn’t be in a buying position of Apple Inc. anytime soon until the economy shows some recovery and Tech stocks show a real correction and real buying from bigger institutions. AT&T reported consumers slowed on buying bigger plans and defaulted on normal ones. Hello! This just proves that slow growth should happen on the iPhone since consumers can already not affoard their normal cellular plans.
Look at Hansen Foods (HANS) stocks has been falling with its major Monster Energy Drink brans, especially big in the X-Games, has been falling hard even with a peg of 1.06. This stock still has a bright growth future, but now are teenagers buying less $2 energy drinks? (or is it really the parents lower on cash so don’t buy the more expensive brand drinks?)
Oil prices at the pump haven’t changed much. I think most automobile consumersr are getting used to $3 gasoline prices which are liked to get a boost again with increasing oil prices that shouldn’t slow down anytime soon which will keep boosting profits for stocks like Southwestern Energy (SWN @ 51) and Ocean Outriggers (RIG @ $124).
I think solar stocks like First Solar (FSLR) and HOKU Scientific (HOKU @ $9.20) are likely to fall until a new President is in place and makes a real energy plan to keep boosting production and make solar “special” again. If you have been reading the reports 2009 will be a HUGE year for solar companies just because by then their new production plants will be made and producing tons of polycillicon very wanted in the industry going up in price making these small solar companies worth and valued you more in stock price (then they currently are).
But back to Apple Inc. I like the new laptop Air, I might even buy me one because they are the first to use flash memory for the harddrive. If you aren’t a computer nerd this means faster processing times, less harddrive crashes, and more efficient system. This could be a huge seller. Who cares that it is thin. It uses a flash harddrive and of course very sleek and hot looking. I don’t know how far Apple Inc. will drop, but I’m think below $100 (which would create a peg of 1.00). Where do I think it will be by November 2008 earnings? Hmm. Depends if these rate cuts do the trick and creates more money so people keep buying gadgets. If Apple continues to take more market share there is no reason its stock won’t stop charging pass $200 again. I think realistically Apple might do a 2:1 stocksplit since they just lost $40 billion in share holder value, maybe a split at $100, might get people think to buy it at $50 is cheap (even though its the same price/value). I like Apple. It really trys to innovate and create “new” and that is a company anyone wants to own. I should note the downgrade it got today just throws “warning signs” for future downtrend. Downgrade on Apple? Are you crazy analyst, well not so crazy at least for now…
Quote cited from:
Yahoo! Finance Associated Press Article on Apple Earnings
I’ve got the time to upload some new trend charts I’m studying to see them just click on the flickr trend picture column or click here to see my flickr page of all my trend charts.
trend charts include: AAPL, ATVI, C, DKS, FXI, HOKU, HANS, MA, INP, TTM, YHOO, GOOG, RIG, SWN, RIMM
check out INP. I’ve seen this stock go from $48 to now $112. Like FXI I think it still has much room to grow with small downs and big moves up with India’s major growth. I believe TTM will start to follow india stocks with its new plan for $2500 car.
check out AAPL. will it get support at current price levels ($172)? major trend will be breached soon if Mac Expo 08′ and earning on january 18th do not give investors reasons to keep charging the stock up. If you look at any other tech stock right now BIDU, GOOG, RIMM charts show in favor of major downtrend to form if negative opinions continue on the economy.
btw – only 70 pages left of Alan Greenspans book! great book and very insightful.
Recently I’ve just started a fasttrack college course for an upper level Human Resources class. HR is much harder then I expected. I thought it would be cake! I give HR people much more credit now having to understand all the laws, rules, and regulations on hiring and planning your workforce. Being an HR takes brains I do not have to spare.
For stocks AAPL @ $138 has just been waiting for something to make it move. The news of its 1 millionth iPhone sale is good news to my options which are now in the negative again since I did not sell them when God gave me the choice to up a couple grand. I’m going to stick to my guns about AAPL stock moving much higher. I have to admit the $10 g’s I put into the options can not lose since that money is needed for another mobile home park I’m interested in buying. AAPL currently has a strong upward trend and I count on it to move much higher into Oct if more, many more, iPhones are sold. It’s a hot product and with the price reduction it should sell much more because a new “i” trend product. I’d like to make $20 g’s on AAPL options move the initial $10 g’s out into my escrow for my down payment and use the profits to buy more options. Another stock moving right along which has 100% broken it’s downward trend is SWN. SWN @ $42 now is steadily moving up with new $80 oil highs. Historically both stocks AAPL and SWN and NTRI have moved up end of August into October.
Currently I’m in “C” school for my military rate. It’s awesome. I’d really like to live the college dorm life even in my 30’s. Good food, exercise, computers labs, and young beautiful women. It doesn’t get much better then this. I feel so relaxed and no stress bothering me except getting business deals completed and selling out of stocks profitably.
So far I was wrong about SWN options since I bought them way way too early in Aug and now in Sept they will expire when the stock is just started to move up the past 6 days.
My NYX options that end is Sept have no chance since the stock is so hated. NYX should be a powerhouse and maybe one day it will be trading very high, but for now it doesn’t move past the $80’s.
I’m keeping an eye on NTRI which has moved down to $48 and now strong up into the $55’s. RIG @ $105 is still in the .31 PEG. Unbelieveable if you ask me.
Stock Alert: Southwestern Energy Company (SWN @ $40)
Search back the google chart from 2003 every end of Jul up to now and the only year that was not consistent was year 2007 when instead of moving up in Aug it moved up in Oct. My bets are on meeting its $50-60 price target before 2008. All profits are up, revenues are revised with previous shale mill up and running again, and its PEG for 5 year is down to 1.06 showing more value in the current price. I might also say its only receiving Buy and Buy with higher and higher target estimates with Oil moving higher and higher in price this company should still considerable profit from alternative fuels. Southwestern Energy Company convinces me through technicals, news, analyst upgrades, and low PEG with high PE and higher earnings predictions that this stock will move higher. If I’m write I should be a bit wealthier.
If you are thinking about buying Calls for Nutrisystem Inc. (NTRI @ $56) you are probably thinking right. I don’t own any options right now with NTRI, but waiting for charts to signal a buy after some movement. The PEG is at a staggering low .68!!!! Talk about value with growth and profits. I bought CALLS on NTRI when the stock was around $47 and sold after it hit around $51 because it was just jumping up and down. Now I kick myself in the balls seeing it hit over $65, but I sold and made some and “won the lottery” in the system. Now with the PEG which is my main predictor where or if they stock goes higher is in a great zone under 1.00. With summer trading I feel I should hold out until at least Sept. If I see some buybacking in it then I’ll buy Calls then. Right now the market is being weird as usually. It’s august a time I try to buy calls and lose all my money because I didn’t buy Puts.
What kills me even more are the gas drillers like NE and GFE and RIG which all PEG’s are under .40 and some .28!!! Almost book value growth to earnings. And there forecasts for earnings are higher then the PE’s shown which is a very good thing. I’m just waiting until I’m complete sure where I think the stock will go. RIG a hot stock is currently getting hit and its broken through a major trend pushing down. NTRI is a weightloss stock. I suspect nothing more then yoyo stock holders.