Irrationally mad decision making to obtain the American Dream.

stock options

My advice – take the intraday 30 minute smart money trade – Apple (AAPL) Put Option

Okay, today was a roller-coaster ride trading Apple (AAPL). At around 11am I saw it down -5 and everything in me said trade it. By the time I got in at 11:30 it was already down -8.5 going in the direction I wanted. I purchased Feb 475 Puts in-the-money at $7.60. In less than 10 minutes I was up +$700 at $9.40. So this is the point where if I was highly intelligent and disciplined I would have took the $700 smart money off the table IMMEDIATELY. I don’t even earn this in a week, actually I don’t even earn this period because I’m currently unemployed. I was watching the charts and within 5 minutes the trade was already going against me and I was in a negative position. All the big charts scream SELL on Apple and were forming bearish looking technicals. I almost sold around 12:30pm for almost -$1000 loss! Yes, you heard that right up $700 then down $1000 probably in no less than an hour. So, I felt it would be my job today to sit and stare at my computer screen all day and only get out if it went above the major downtrend. Well it never did. It was just light afternoon trading going up. As soon as the real traders got back from their lunches AAPL immediately started to trade down again. I’m glad I at least had the patience to wait it out but I’ve waited trades out before and lost thousands of dollars so I prefer not to.

Guess what? Although Apple traded -12 points down for the close I decided to be patience and stay in the trade. From the research I looked at from the big trend and every time there is a big red candle at the top of the 3-5-20 day close a second down day should*** follow. Now what I didn’t take into effect was the Presidents State of the Union Address tonight. SHIT. But it seems historically the market pulls-back after it for Obama so that would be in my best interest. I’ll be watching AAPL closely likely to jump and then fall and sell out once it seems to hit some residence. It hit a new low today and under $468 which is why I stayed in it. I’m up +$760. If it continues to fall tomorrow and the entire market doesn’t rise up a lot then I should be up +$2000 or sell immediately if I’ve got the guts to.

apple AAPL


AAPL, GOOG, PCLN – bounce back up – plan to continue to fall

In my previous post after the continue trending change in AAPL, GOOG, and PCLN I see them moving down further. News articles have already come up to scare off Apple investors. A bounce back from its previous sharp fall is normal. We’ll truly know a peak has been hit if AAPL big +30pt move dies by the end of the week. However, practicing these 3 helped me pick out the weakest of the litter – Google. Google has been moving like a slug in the crowd and falling harder when taking hits. For this reason out of my 3 practice trades I would trade my life on I would choose Google put options. I intuitively feel it has the most loose too because it has tried so hard to become everything and take over large markets. It is still a search engine and advertising engine, but it’s beginning to spread itself thinner and get into more trouble. Also it doesn’t really MAKE anything. Everything is digital even though it did buy Motorola it sounds just like to make them stronger instead of actually innovating a product line with a whole lot of money.

See chart below – As you can see GOOG moved the least with it’s friends.
which stock is the best to buy in 2012?

My current practice options must be down at least -80% but that’s okay because I’m smart to be practicing my theories instead of using real money like I use to. My expected bounce back on Apple that I knew was going to happen but could’t confirm did happen today. For the most part if a stock takes such a big dive, it’s still worth tons in free cash, and it’s a top tier company it DOES bounce back however from YEARS of watching the market if it is at a super high run up peak if it isn’t able to recapture it’s highs investors and big traders start considering to make million$ trading the other way down because ladies and gentleman you can earn just as much as not more shorting or put options on a stock – some awesome instrumental tools as a knowledgeable trader.


stock market correction = uptrending

If you are a stock market follower you’d notice the different wording journalist are using such as “optimistic” that we hit our low just recently last Thursday Aug 16 to be exact. I was watching the market as AAPL was hitting $112’s and NYX was hitting $65’s. I was drawing my support lines because after the big red candle dropped a big white candle stood right next to it top to bottom and went right up with buyers looking for a golden opportunities. Since I’m still a student I really did not know which direction the market would go. On Friday stocks popped higher creating a doji star showing the market made up its mind. So now for the past almost 6 days the market has ran up with white candles breaking the downward trend since July 15th. I’m currently in AAPL JAN 200 CALLS up around 30% in my options +$3000 in 2 business days. I’m not going to sell at some crazy high number, but I am going to follow the major uptrend line until it is broken or bad news comes out, other wise I’m stick to my play. I’m very confident in Apple and until their next earnings call I’m going to trade it up to earnings or until I’m happy with my profit. I’d also love to be in SHLD and RIG Calls, but I’ve been taught to be in only one trade at a time even if there are other opportunities available. I need to stick to the rules and show some discipline or I’m never going to become a great trader.

Currently I’ve been looking at a trailor park to buy for $190,000. I’ve talked to many experts in this field and the price looks very good for what I’m getting which would be an 18 lot, 2.37 acre, with 18 park owned homes rented for $350-450 each, with all utilities established. It is around 20 minutes away from University of eastern Tennessee (Johnson City, TN). I’d really like to do the deal, but I want to get an outside property manager if I buy it. This is the advice I’ve gotten basically to get rid of any favoritism within the park. It would make some serious cashflow to my real estate portfolio. Between the 2 trailor parks I will eventually be receiving around a $50k net income a year more than my U.S. Coast Guard income so it would finally give me the choice of retirement at age 29. I still want to be a great trader, but it would give me choice even if I did not trade stock options.

I’m almost done with my 3 classes at HPU and will start another 5 online in the next two semesters. I want to double major by 2009 then do some pastry or music school or both when I get out. 2007 has been a very volatile year for my portfolio and my goal is to come out higher than last years or at least breaking even. Many of my penny stocks are worthless so I will have to sell them soon or I will be paying some serious taxes from gains I do not have anymore. Trends are looking good and the technicals are showing major buying right now so look out!


HOKU, new recent real estate, and juggling college classes

Currently in the world of the finance ninja he has purchased his second real estate deal. The property is an RV/Trailor park in Tennessee. He has also enrolled in 3 online college classes getting closer to finish his BA, and his stocks holdings have still not changed -$21,000.

Why not talk in the third person?

About 2 weeks ago I believe I purchased HOKU JAN 2008 17.5 CALL options. I should of actually put a GTC up 100%, but of course I didn’t. Currently I’m up around 50%. I feel the stock has much more room to grow and I bought tons of time so I could receive a larger return.
Although HOKU is doing well I only had $1000 to invest so due to my negative -$21000 balance on the stocks owned my networth is still very unhappy with my bad decisions during the new year of 2007 trading.

As for my real estate developments I already know what you are thinking. How can I be purchasing real estate with no money left and who would want to buy a trailor park? Well, I went to a real estate game club that plays Rich Dad Poor Dad’s Cashflow and they sell real estate university packages with a website and company that prepares real estate deals for you. I didn’t buy into it, but for a bran new person it might be a great idea. Personally buying real estate isn’t that hard expecially when you are paying all the closing costs for other people to do everything for you. I actually have been looking on ebay.com real estate listing and loopnet.com listings. They offer a site called investorconcierge.com where you have to pay $3000 just to see the listings. Honestly I think that is crazy because there are already millions of listings available you can do advanced searches on to find bargains to start a real estate portfolio. Also to have full access to the site and first picks on the properties that aren’t any better then any others you have to end up paying around $21,000. Now if you want to do that great, but I’d rather take $21,000 and buy a properties or properties with that money instead of waste it on a 40 CD audio/video course I’m never going to take the time to watch because I’m spending 100% of my time on the internet searching properties and talking to professionals about buying them. Setting up deals isn’t hard. If you can do math then you can figure out if the property you are looking at will make you money. Speaking of properties the RV/Trailor park I bought in Tennessee, a state I’ve only driven through going to California, I found off ebay.com. I usually try to avoid ebay, but most people selling properties there usually have no luck selling in town possibly because its too small with no buyers interested or there to flip a properties quickly for a resale for a quick gain, but the property might be still very underpriced for its value. This RV/trailor park came across as an awesome deal if all things work out of course. It has 1.5 acres of land off a main highway near town. It has 10 units with 6 currently being rented. The owner owned all 6 units which were included in the property of sale. Each unit rents for an average of $450/month. Doing some quick math that is $2700/month income. The owner was selling the full park for $90,000 and offered owner financing at 10% if he got the full $90,000 with a mortgage note of $700/month. The owner/landlord pays all utilities of water, sewage, electricity, and cable of around $600/month.
So the net profit off this property with only 6 units rented is $1400/month or $18,850/year because he rents them weekly not monthly so that is an extra 4 weeks of rent (before property management fee of 10% net will be $1100/month). This is more than a seamn or E-3 makes in the USCG or Navy. His auction was up for a little less than 15 days I believe more than enough time for other investors to catch their eye. I’m surprised no one bought it sooner then I did. I basically just did some research on the town, talked to the owner, and found a property manager to take over the property for me since I will be an absent owner. All the seller wanted was at least $10,000 down which was reasonable and my student loans I took out for college and investing since that is my main independent study came to use finally. Anyone can take out a $40,000 student loan from any major lender. It isn’t very hard and you can use them for many things as long as you are a full-time student. I plan to use the remaining amount for a 3rd property and the rest two buy 4 more trailors for the park. That’s right. Four more trailors only renting at $400/month each would increase my cashflow to $4300 with a net of over $2700/month. Most likely my utilities would go up some, but not likely to double. As for why would the owner sell it for so cheap? I asked him. His answer was reasonable. He said he bought it 3 years earlier and it was a dump and dead. He put 6 old cheap trailors on them and fixed them up and now looking to sell it to go onto another deal. I figure he must of not put more than $30,000 into the 6 trailors and the piece of land. So selling it for $90,000 3 years later is an awesome deal for him and myself since the park produces a very good income. I plan to pay off the remaining $80,000 I owe him on a note sooner to increase my cashflow another $700 which would make it around $2100 with only 6 units occupied. I’m pretty psyched about the deal and my property manager seems very sharp and willing to do a good job. The property manager will earn 10% of all rental income so he wants to help me get those other spots filled increasing his cashflow. I will collect my first rent next week around July 11th.
I plan to build it up, buy more trailors to rent, and pay off the note within 2-5 years.

I enrolled in 3 college online classes in HPU. I expect to get underway soon and will likely blog more occassionally because I have nothing better else to do stuck on the boat once my watch is finished. I study, write some music, and research stocks. This is a normal day underway after work. I like to sleep a lot too, but drills prevent sleep so you do everything else in between. I’m finally qualified so I’ll only have to train for drills which will open more time.

As for am I happy? Well that real estate deal even though it cost me $10,000 felt like buying a bran new car even though it is very new or pretty. I haven’t been very happy lately. Actually this girl I asked to dance and talked to at a concert is really bugging me. I really wish I’d gotten her phone number instead of giving her my fun looking business card! Well I guess I might learn next time, or not. I’m getting fat too. As for personal life fatness sucks. No ninja is quick or stealth-like getting fatter. I plan to exercise more, do more push-ups, and sit-ups, but I have yet to get started. Why? Hmm… a little bit of lazy-ness most likely… Underway you usually get fatter since all you do is eat. I plan to only eat cereal and soups. This should cut down and help me keep that extra sea fat off.

well aloha
-fn


Wi-fiTv.com (WTVI.PK) following a minor uptrend, BA, NTRI

Wi-FiTv.com just came out with a new press release on posting wedding video. I have to admit this is something definitely I don’t see or hear about on the web. The company is either crazy for thinking this up (being a private more intimate memory) or they are brilliant and wedding video posting might be worth $$$. I guess in the months ahead as they establish themselves on the internet (because it doesn’t just happen overnight coming from experience). WTVI.PK stock price has been volatile because it is a penny stock and because of this you shouldn’t ever be afraid. You aren’t invested your next egg or childs college tuition, you are rather investing a few thousand dollars or the price of a nice flat screen Tv. It is a speculative company.

WTVI.PK has been starting to follow a minor uptrend and lets all hope it continues with increased buying in the stock (the only way it will go up). I noticed today much of the buying probably was from the press release from over 13 million shares traded. For such a small company many shares are traded because relatively any investor can buy a couple 100,000 shares for less than a couple thousand dollars which is hard to do with any dollar stock.
Current stock price is support in the .012 to .02 range. Click on picture to enlarge below.

WTVI.PK Daily Stock Chart

wtvi.pk daily stock chart

Current Boeing has created a large candle with increased 787 orders and follows a strong uptrend. Check out chart.

BA Daily Stock Chart

BA daily stock chart

Nutri Systems Inc. has recently popped after earnings and mildly traded lower from the volatile sudden increase. 200 million share buyback is in place by company and target has been raised to $76 from increased growth. Besides this the companies correction was good so investors could get back in at $44 stock price. If the stock does not hit $49 by the end of the week I’m selling off my options most likely if the stock trade reverses itself. Currently the trade has a good story, but NTRI hasn’t been picked up on yet or Jim Cramer. Today it traded lower but 8 minute chart shows its still bullish to move higher into the next trading day.

NTRI 8 minute stock chart

NTRI 8 minute stock chart

NTRI Daily stock chart

NTRI daily stock chart


Recent option plays BA and NTRI – Also WTVI, CCNG, TRMP

Recently Call Option plays I’m in are BA (Boeing Inc.) and NTRI (Nutri Systems Inc.). BA current trend has been modestly going up daily, receiving new orders, with a low PEG, high FWD earnings, and continual solid growth. BA closed at 89.51. I’m playing the APR 95 CALLS. As for NTRI it just recently surprised Wall Street with excellent earnings and growth. It gapped up and has recently fallen some to where I feel a good buying opportunity is pretty. Just recently in the past 3 days the stock has moved up 2 pts and it’s likely that some of that $200 million buyback program has started with the price traded towards it 52 week low with a good story to rise its price. Analyst have also priced it at $76 with its current growth. I bought JUN 50 CALLS. Did I also mention that NTRI current PEG is below 1.00 at .55 this is at bargain level for a stock this is receiving large growth. NTRI closed at 47.67. NTRI traded .25 higher after hours.

Currently TRMP raised the idea of selling out its Atlantic City, NJ casinos for a cash sale. TRMP up 8% on Friday 9th. Currently I’m in TRMP options long and after reviewing the PEG, FWD earnings, and current sales it doesn’t seem like a great company to buy at the moment. The thing Trump Casinos does have going for them is the brand name Trump, prime location, and current value of half billion dollars. TRMP closed at 18.19.

As for every speculators favorite company http://www.wi-fitv.com the company endlessly puts out new press releases, which is keeping investors involved, at the same time I want the company to start heavily advertising the website on the internet to really raise the traffic, new members, and increased advertising rates for banners and tv commercials. Currently the company values around $250k from the current stock price of $.015 which went up today 25%. WTVI is slowly forming a support price. It broke $.02 cents and I was highly disappointed, but most investors are right thinking it will probably drop into the sub-penny levels. Personally, this is bad for current investors and future ones. A steady gain in price is much healthier and investable. If you see a stock going down and staying down you don’t want to buy it no matter how good the story is on the stock. As for a stock slowly trailing and following WTVI is CCNG. CCNG is a collectables company probably worth more in capital and assets then WTVI, but trading many times lower in the sub-penny levels still. I would be surprised to see CCNG trading at below $.05 by the end of the year while receiving more orders to sell to retail and franchisers. It currently trades at $.0004. If you currently bought 1 million shares it would cost you only $400 plus commissions. That is right only $400 for 1 million shares. If the stock goes to even just $.01 cent you would make a $9600 profit almost 11x more then you put into it.

Another stock to take look at is PSPM a technology company that has created patents for lower energy using lightbulbs and currently highered WestingHouse’s veteran sales person.
The stock has steadily moved down, but if they do sell their licenses expect the capital of the company to be worth over $1 billion dollars. For this reason PSPM is really worth looking at.


Apple Computer (AAPL) the good news and bad news…

As you all have heard if you read any financial online news Apple Computer’s commity board has cleared CEO Steve Jobs of all the options probes, which lifted the stock price up 5% Friday to around $85. My options will become unsellable soon if this coming week Wed through Friday of 2007 AAPL does not move back to the $90’s now with a big kick of momentum. I feel the better decision to invest in would of been FXI index fund now around $112 which would of been the easier more trustworthy trend to follow, but there are not woulds and coulds in investing. Once your order has been taken you are in. Yes I had the option to get out early loosing only a few hundred dollars, but my darn concious has not been disciplined yet. I just don’t want to loose and I am starting to think because I don’t want to loose I actually loose not only my money I save to invest, but also my gaining confidence that I can be a successful long-term trader in the stock market. Sometimes I feel like there is no hope in my trading because I don’t know how to say no to trades I want to get into. There is no “Happy in Seatle” ever. I just want more more more. I ended up adding to loosing trades turning them into bigger loosers and when I do get out profitably I’m not happy with my results even if I get a big gain because I did not trade correctly how I was taught. I don’t want to keep learning lessons in the market. I want to make solid outstanding trades. I just need to become that solid outstanding disciplined trader able to accept to be a looser and let the market win sometimes because I’m learning many times you might not be correct so you have to get out when you are wrong.

Apple Computer after releasing CEO Steve Jobs from the option probe looked like it could come around until it unleased a handful of plaintiff lawsuits against AAPL’s “itunes and ipod monopoly”. I’d really like to punch the company or person in the face that has these claims. You know Apple was a nobody company back in the 1970’s and nobody really believed in it. It started with just college kids liking to program and make a difference in the home computer world with little money. They didn’t start out thinking they were going to dominate the world with a huge monopoly on music downloads, computers for artist and movie makers, and iPod players that consumers just want so bad. I’m sure every company in the back of their heads and in their mission statements wants to be successful with no limits to profits. Sure there is a lot of marketing involved this is what most any successful company does – Find out what consumers want to buy and Apple made big bucks doing just this – Great Ads for iTunes and iPods.

Apple computers stock and computers were really only bought by schools through the 1980’s (I remember using them and learning how to type on them in Middle School), and not until the 1990’s they were highly loved by musicians and artists. Until CEO Steve Jobs came out with the iPod around 2000 Apple was a nobody in the computer business with such a small niche. Now they have a product everybody loves and did a great job with it’s sales force and upgraded their computers to compete with PC’sto be bought by their new customers wanting only Apple and you have the right to throw a lawsuit against them? I guess it is your right, but I’d like the right to knock you out. So stop bitching and come out with own great product that you’ve worked secretly hard on and sell it to the world.

I see AAPL moving up or staying at the same price until earnings and see it still dropping unless Apple Computer creates new history for itself. It currently has a high PEG score over 2 times which means it’s being sold, although its EPS and growth looks really good to keep the stock moving up over time if it can keep momentum with new computer sales growth is the real key to Apple’s long-term success with new products.

I’ve recently been reading Cramer’s book “Mad Money” the new one and will be doing a review on it soon.
Cheers -FN


Monster Growth on Monster Energy drink made by Hansen Co. (HANS)

I was viewing Krispy Kreme Donuts (KKD) earnings report on Yahoo! Finance and then went on to read an article on it, through that article I read an article on Hansens Monster Energy (HANS) drink with anaylst thinking it will be the next KKD on its quick rise and possible hard down fall because HANS stock price has gone up 6,000%. Monster Energy drink sales and energy drink trends were being related to KKD by anaylst, but I beg to differ. I do not see how you can relate a dessert food with an energy drink. I do not think a Krispy Kreme Donut consumer thinks they are going to think and focus sharper or get a boost of energy to stay awake where as Monster Energy drink consumers do. They say energy drinks are just a trend. I do not think this is the case because many new companies are coming out with their own energy drinks to take shelf space away from the big guys Monster and Red Bull Energy drink. Lately, new energy drinks such as Rockstar, Who’s Your Daddy, and even Hulk Hogan’s “Hogan Energy” have hit the shelves besides Coffee Caffiene drinks like Starbuck’s (SBUX) Double Shot. Energy drinks are rich with sugar, caffiene, and ginseng. Other ingredients include some minerals and vitamins if you are lucky.

Currently HANS is ranked #2 as the fastest growing companies in Fortune’s 100 Fastest Growing Companies this year. HANS just recently created a partnership with Anheuser-Busch to help Bar and Resturant Sales, increase distribution, increase market position to make Monster Energy Drink #1 over it’s main competitor Red Bull Energy drink. HANS current stock price is around $34 which is 20 times it’s forward earnings statement projections. HANS Monster Energy Drink is considered to overtake Red Bull’s market position to dominate as #1 in Energy Drink sales by June 2008. I feel there is still room for HANS to go higher then its $52 stock price high on growth and earnings projections for the company. The company beginning stock price was around $.07 cents. Talk about a turn around story for a penny stock starting in 1996 and 10 years later your stock being worth probably around $1 million. I feel their is still growth, stocksplits, and possible buyout for Hansens by a bigger company like Coke or Pepsi. The 1 month chart shows HANS could possible pull back some more, but if you are buying long the 1-5 year charts show a bullish uptrend with still more upside. The 10 year chart expecially shows HANS being sold-off hard at the 52 week highs showing increase buying just recently. I will do another review on this stock in a couple of months to see where its at.

What do I drink? Personally underway to stay wake during those late hour shifts I have bought around 4 12-Pack cases of Red Bull. I don’t necessary like them (the taste), but they do give me a caffiene boost to focus on my work, surfing the internet, and studying stocks. I am going to try out Monster Energy drink soon. I hope it’s relatively the same price for more drink. If so I’d switch because Red Bull is such a small can. I’d like to have more to drink and more to boost me awake!


Apple (AAPL) iTunes Store receives 90% of PAID Video Downloads

I found this paragraph interesting on an off subject source on video downloads for the movie industry:

Of paid downloads, 62% was TV content, 24% was music video content and 6% was mainstream movie content. Where were consumers buying these downloads? About 90% percent came from Apple Computer’s iTunes store, with 5% coming from movie-subscription site Vongo, 3% from movie download service Movielink and less than 1% from movie download service CinemaNow. ”

For the full news article click here.

This came from:  www.Forbes.com

Apple Computer is currently trading lower and lower.  I find it painful because I see on the charts the next day it will trade lower and I rebuy Calls at lower points waiting for a big buy back, but I think these dumb anaylst are still pissed about backdating options, iPhone name being taken by Cisco (CSCO), no show for financial reports, and Jim Cramer’s opinionating voice is not moving Apple up like any other stock he would usually vouch for.  Jim Cramer keeps saying everything is misleading and Apple is worth more and creating major growth.  I am with him completely, but currently the public investor is selling it off.  So until an institution comes in with “strong buy” (of course while the load up on it first to make the real profit) I will have to patiently wait for the 50% solid run that will go up into earnings.  Problem is “time decay” with call options when you are dumb like me and buy this month for maximum profitability and maximum loss…   Smart thing to do buy lots of time and deep in the money, oh yeah but that would of been the right thing to do.  Shit.  I can’t stand being young and immature.


Garmin (GRMN), Research in Motion (RIMM), Apple Computer (AAPL), NUE, and China Energy Security

Hi.  I read in the news today that General Electric (GE @ $37.36) and Westinghouse Electric Co. will be receiving mega big multi-billion dollar contracts to build nuclear reactors throughout asia specifically the mother herself China.  Since I found this ETF Index Asia fund on China (FXI) I’ve been very bullish that it will continue to move in the $120 to high $140’s.  If you just look at the big picture of China building a New Yorker City every month that can add up to a lot of booming business turning China into an economic powerhouse.  China has billions of people that will be needing and wanting what American’s take for granted.  GE will be building many nuclear reactors to create energy security for these new huge cities.  Yes, there is still communisim but it is regulated and small entrepreneurship is being granted to business people.  Businesses are underway and paving the way to a better society for its people.  FXI index fund invests in many electric, water, cable, oil, and many other companies already in China that are China businesses making big profits because China is building itself, proving it wants to be number #1.

Notes on other stocks: 

Research in Motion (RIMM) was just recently at $125 and I told my sister it was a good buying level because I felt the support price and a possible stock split in the near future.  Just 3 days later it’s at $138.  That is up $13.  If you owned Call options you are looking at a 50-300% return within a week.  Pretty good if you ask me!  No I wasn’t in them because I was already in a position and didn’t have as much money to invest because I was a smart person and paid off some of my mortgage first.  I can also note that anaylst are very bullish because RIMM has been beating earnings expectations and target prices have been raised to $160-175. 

Apple Computer (AAPL) stock price has been hit by negative news on iTunes music store song downloadsRumors are that growth is -65%, but anaylst think differently with CEO Steve Jobs that this data is incorrect.  The rumors is spread even more because AAPL is delaying its financial reports cleaning up it’s predated stock options scandal problem.  I feel AAPL just wants to clean up the stock options error and move on as soon as possible.  Anaylst say the low 80’s stock price now is a buying position opportunity and that iPod sales are key to solid earnings.  I really think many anaylst are forgetting computer sales growth with AAPL.  There has been a buying surge on their computer sales growth and computer users are switching now to Mac’s trying them out.  This could be mega huge for AAPL sales growth adding to iPod sales and music downloads.   I own AAPL and buying more into my position going into AAPL earnings Jan 17, 2006.

Also I still feel NUE Steel maker will be dropping harder and lower soon with its warnings for earnings.  Warnings is bad and there is also been out news that Steel makers will be receiving lower profits due to new laws on taxes and imports to help lower Auto Makers costs.  So sell stell and buy auto stocks?  Maybe.  Chart indicators show a reversal to go down also.  Now patience comes into play.  The stock has moved sideways straight across since warnings more then likey it will move to the $55 zone soon.

Lastly Garmin GPS Products (GRMN) having been a hit being built into new cars like GM and although earnings weren’t fantastic they did prove the company is still in its growth stage.  GRMN is getting much media attention to I might ad and their marketing has been effective on Tv ads through posters in boat shops and add-ons in cars and trucks.  I see big things.  They will be splitting their stock 2:1 on Dec 16 (tomorrow).  The stock has moved to my target I predicted and felt it would goto by Jan 07 which is $53-55 dollars.  It currently hit $55.  Another good stock or stock option play you would of made around 10% if you bought the stock and around 100% if you owned the options.  I feel when that price hits $25-28 after it splits stock brokers will be telling their clients to buy buy buy.  The stock isn’t any cheaper, the company hasn’t changed, and now you just own two instead of 1.  But for the new investor they are going to think they are getting a steal.  I see the price going past the $30’s in 2007 for an easy 10-20% gain if the GRMN is able to keep analyst happy and a possible surprise in earnings could really boost this stock back into the $50-80’s again. 

All stocks depend on the market and where it is going.  I’m even curious.  I have no idea.  The charts show the stock market looks to keep moving up.  I feel there is a breaking point for all stocks.  Stocks like GOOG and RIMM which I feel are really expensive may actually be cheap right now, but soon oh very soon I feel where I am going to become a million is when high rolling stocks drop and that drop is going to be the key to buying Puts and make the big money coming down.  Patience and having the funds at the right time is also important.  Right now the stock market, economic reports, and attitude is optimistic to keep moving.  So run with everyone else now but don’t take advice read and be insightful because it’s YOUR money on the line.

Cheers -P


Market moves down – Apple Computer (AAPL) and McDonald’s (MCD) stock reviews

About a week or more ago I predicted the market to move further down with profit takings and technical data indicators.  Although I played Calls on AAPL going up because so many upgrades and hype rumors helping boost its shares, Puts would of been the more profitable and the right choice.  I suppose finally the market gave AAPL a hang over and its down to $86.  I looked at the Daily year chart and AAPL is still riding up it’s trend line from July 2006 and it hasn’t broke yet.  Also the simple moving averages are still in line with the prive movement.  It still can move down before hitting the trend line breaking it.  Now I’m not saying it won’t move to $100.  I think it is very likely with increasing sales on everything it does (music downloading, iPods, and fresh improving computer sales) I’m just right now it looks down.  I’d wait to see a reversal pop up or big white candle buying sign saying “BUY ME HERE”.  Where?  I currently am in a loosing position and I should of sold out 4 days ago, duh!  But my personality and stock selling maturity appearantly still has not improved.  I’ve been breaking too many rules lately that I’ve been taught.  My oldest sister even tells me she can’t help me or do team work if I don’t follow the rules exactly as they are written.  What am I suppose to do being so dang risky!  I shoot big guns in the market and yes they shoot back even bigger and hit me harder!  A very good bullet proof vest would be wearing the rules on my chest.  If I am going to break the rules then I’m going to buy call/put options with tons of time value so I can breath easier through volatile price changes because -$1-3 pts on a stock is a big percentage change when owning a stock option.  I think not breaking the rules would be the right choice again.  The real question is how much money from my “could be big savings bank account” am I will to give up to trade in the stock market and receive a Harvard college price education?  For me my stock market education is everything, but I’m starting to think I should be doing more “homework practice plays with no money” then trading all my real hard earned money. 

I’ve currently decided to buy McDonald’s MCD at the $43 stock price for June 2007 55 CALLS @ .10.  My order hasn’t been processed yet so it might not be sold to me but I shall wait or buy more @ $.15 later if the stock keeps its price.  McDonalds has been doing very keeping their stores clean, modernizing them, offering healthier foods, keeping an excellent $1 menu, and increasing same-store sales with positive earnings news and upgrades on the corporate company.  It also has a strong upward trend since July 2003.  I can also note MCD has been pretty flat since October 2006 and only recently popped in December 2006 on upgrades and same-stores sales increasing.

Although MCD is a fast-food giant and probably not the healthiest for burgers still customers love its food, prices, and fast service.

I will also note about myself that I am now presently underway crusing in the Pacific ocean with my USCG cutter for around 3 months.  My internet is slow, but I will still update my blog, networthiq, and current trade holdings.  I am still optimistic on making 1 solid 100% trade a month to reach my goal of $100k to $1 Million.  I just need to learn how to stop trading after I reach my monthly goal so I don’t loose any money I make in profits.  I find getting into stocks options are easy.  The hard part is selling off the greed taking some profit and getting out quicker.

I will be doing more practice trades during this time since I can not trade on the boat due to the new hours I work and slow connection.  If I can add new funds to my portfolio I will to save money out of my pay check.  I’m hoping to save $5,000 out of my pay checks by March 2007.  I think it would be best to put towards paying off my car.  Best*

I will also be looking for a new place to live.  I hope I find a perfect match in my budget to keep saving money on housing costs to put it towards my stock market education and goals.

-P


Positive Non-Farm employment reports – AAPL, RIMM, SHLD, FXI, JMBA

 (Technically charts are below)

Non-Farm Payroll economic employment reports showed that the economy is still alive and the word used in the market today “robust heading into the holiday season”.  This was postive news to investors to keep buying.  Today it said stocks were overbought I feel they have been oversold.  On the charts RIMM, AAPL, SHLD, FXI, and JMBA all show for this weeky a slowly heading downwards trend line even with some positives today.  AAPL and JMBA were the only ones that closed at a positive stock price.  But my AAPL option trade is in for its death if investors are really selling off AAPL just because the rumor is now Apple Computers iPhone might be delayed.  I am hoping not.  I want Apple to show it off (if they actually are going to have one) at the Mac World conference in Jan 2007 before their earnings.  I see people buying Apple computers left and right.  Even my mother asked me if she should get one!  I said most definitely!  I have one myself and it’s easy to use, doesn’t crash, and more unique then a PC.  Although AAPL took a hit in its Daily trend up lately going from $93 to $87 I’m not worried.  Instinctively AAPL should hit a support price around $85 and keep treading higher

Since many people are bearish on Jamba Juice I am going to follow the stock, its reports, and its movement.  Maybe the company won’t grow and only Hawaiian health freaks like the products.  I haven’t really been in the mainland living for almost a year now.  If I’m right this stock should grow 100-300% within the next few years creating mega profiting on leap year options and holding the common stock.

There wasn’t much other news in the stock market today.  Friday for most stocks closed positive from bullish employment report investors were hesitant to hear and now that they have heard it the market should keep moving in the optimistic direction.  We should see some buying next week with the Bulls.

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DJIA & NASDAQ will follow uptrend into Jan 2007

I’ve made up my mind.   The past few trading days the market has continued to move up with more positive merger news.   I feel the stock market will move higher finally hitting that DJIA $13,000 mark the Bulls really want to see.  On merger monday Bank of NY buys financial securities giant Mellon Financial off weighing Pfizer’s bad news of it’s drug halt the market still optimistically continued up.  Both bank stocks moved higher.  As for Pfizer’s drop of 12% I do not think that will last for long.  The stock price could continue to move a bit further down, but Pfizer is also a giant and a drug profit machine.  With new Democrat house in control new regulations and laws pharma companies could be in for a problem.  Republicans have been really creating corporate profit machines with the right tax laws helping out Mr. Big Corporate America.  I see PFE moving from $24.90 regaining its price of $27-30 within the year depending on if Pfizer comes out with another wonder drug or patients start staying alive instead of dieing!

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AAPL earnings in January – New products – Strong holiday sales

I just recently decided that I have been ignoring Apple Computers stock way too much.  I watch it everyday and I consider it one of my expert stocks.  I’m trading companies I really shouldn’t be trading in right now like MSO and AMAT which are acting like snails and aren’t moving, sadly I can’t even sell out.  I decided for my 100% trade of the month I would buy AAPL calls going into earnings Jan 07.  The rumors and the news predict very strong sales for Apple Computer, a possible new iPod phone surprise – read apple phone patent news,  and Microsofts Zune is not selling showing that the iPod’s advertising is still pushing sales higher then ever.  Plus don’t foget Apple’s itunes and imusic store selling millions of songs each quarter.  Another positive note to add to this winning companies story is the strong increase in its Mac Pro being sold more then ever.  I’ve even read a couple of blogs where people that use to hate everything about Mac’s now want one more then ever just because they switched to Intel chips with the new software OS X that can switch between Windows XP applications and Mac OS software.  For these reasons I’m choosing this stock of Dec 06 for my 100% trade towards my $40,000 goal on the way to $1 Million.  I can also note that AAPL also just received a price target upgrade to $108.  If AAPL does anything like RIMM did with earnings and products the price could well go into the $120’s leaving plently of room for me to trade the stock going up and down earning 100%.

Well that’s it for now. -P


Sold out of FXI up 20% today. Market still looks to move downward.

Sold out of my FXI position at $1.35.  I bought two more contracts yesterday at $.45 averaging my option price to $1.08 profiting myself today up 20%.  I saw it start to move down and the Nasdaq was dropping faster so I thought the right decision since I didn’t know if this was a slight correction or a continuing downward trend was to sell and see what happens tomorrow.  If stocks will move higher they will open higher and continue to trade higher tomorrow.  If they open lower then they will go lower at least from my chart anaylsis. 

I was pretty convinced FXI would move back up, but I was fortunate that the Bulls stepped in buying at low 3% off prices and made stocks trade higher today.  I’m actually happy with my 20% even though it has probably been the smallest return in months, although its a positive return!  Not a negative or $0 worth nothing option and remember this was a Dec 06 option!  Meaning if the market continuing to go down my option would of been worthless day by day to finally $0.  Thank you God, although I know you don’t move the market, but I am thankful for bigger players buying in.


Miserably happy today – Right about the direction of the market wrong about my trade.

Well lets start off by saying I was wrong on my trade for FXI Dec 06 96 Calls.  I was right about the market following down opening either high or low.  It opened lower but much lower then expected and stocks did move higher throughout the day with the DJIA and NASDAQ.  But I was wrong because it didn’t pop later to find out that the Chinese Yen fell creating also a sell off in Chinese stocks helping ETF index fund FXI drop sharper.  It did move up the rest of the day but it totally made my day suck.  I don’t like being wrong but I can except it.  I know now not to make this type of trade again.  I’m stuck in the position because it’s basically at a totally loss.  My 100% compound interest trade did not work so I am basically at a 100% loss.  =-(  Now if I was smart I would of went with an easier trade yesterday, Apple.  You see when the entire market tanked AAPL was up $1 and I knew knew knew that it would change negative once the stock investors hit a reality check.  Thirty minutes later I re-checked the stock qoute and it was $.16 then -$.80 then finally -$2.00!!!  My intuition to buy PUTS on it would of been the CORRECT thing to do and I would off been up 100% in my trade in 1 day.    Now I’m the opposite. 

When I woke up this morning at 4:30 AM to see how the market opened I only got two hours of sleep the night before because I took this huge nap early in the day.  I couldn’t wait to see my position up so I could close it out.  When I saw FXI @ -$3.00 I wanted to puke.  I was so wrong and it was taking forever to move up in the day.  It didn’t move like AAPL down $1 then up +$1 by the end of the day.  So since I was up early I left to get some grub around 5:30 AM at Jack In the Box fastfood joint.  Before I arrived I killed a smoke in my car getting a high trying to ease my mind about my bad trade.  I haven’t smoked a cigarrette in two days.  I finally arrived 5 minutes later.  I got my favorite Meaty Egg Burrito combo with a big hashbrown and coffee.  It tastes yummy and totally delicious.  I was happy for like 10 minutes eating my food inside the store.  I love eating early in the morning before I do work or when I am traveling it gives me a sense of fun as I felt as a kidDrinking coffee is also fun and makes me feel like this early morning adult worker.  I end up going to work and boxing out at the gym early morning as soon as I get to work.  My stomache wasn’t too happy about excercising.  I check my stock quote again through out the day and see it moving up but not into the positive when I thought it would go.  Disappointed I am today so miserably happy, seriously, in myself. 

If I was you I wouldn’t even read this financial stock options trading blog.  I hope you are learning something, but I’m loosing money and that isn’t very good trading for you to be interested in.  Hahaha.  Don’t worry I’m not done yet.  I have 3 more years to correct my mistakes, if I can and do, and finally meet my goal of $1 million dollars.


Nasdaq QQQQ Index Drops with Wal-Marts rare sales decline creating concerns for worried investors.

Although the QQQQ Index is hitting all time highs and has a strong uptrend with 5 small bullish rally peaks I believe todays sell on the market was a warning to take profits off the table if you own stock.  I feel QQQQ’s will pop higher next morning Nov 28th then continue to sell lower breaking a major trend up.  My reasons are selling off in Dec 06 to extract money for taxe purposes.  Also a long run up and selling at highs.  I’d buy back into QQQQ after it bottoms out and it starts to have a bullish rally again in 2007.  I’m going to be buying PUT positions on this QQQQ index as soon as the market and charts show I am correct. 

Wal-marts rare sales decline for Nov 06 created a negative push on the market today to make investors with big profits to sell taking them off the table with mixed news on sales.  Investors are worried about consumer spending and retail stocks now.  I expect the market to either open lower go high then down or open real high and keep following downward tomorrow.  If you read the articles it pushes towards “healthy profit taking” which is what I think with a push from Wal-Marts sales reports created a selling effect on the stock market to really sell off hard like it did.

I was also right about the FXI China Index PUTS.   I bought CALLS on them today to pop higher and sell out immediately for a friendly profit.  I don’t see FXI following a U.S. market downtrend because they are China market related and move slowly with China and are slightly effected, but effected as seen today with the 1-3% drop on stocks.

 Now the market could open lower tomorrow, but I feel that’s highly unlikely because of such a big percentage mark sold off today making buyers scream buy tomorrow then sell real fast for a profit.  So if the market down pop higher then start to go down you could still get into PUT positions on most stocks.

QQQQ Index strong bull trend with first large red candle signaling a reversal in a reversal selling month:

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Garmin Co. to keep with tech uptrend. Lots of advertisement for GPS units.

GRMN after earnings tanked like SHLD, but has really made a move up.  I really thought it would continue downwards, but its earnings was confusing.  GRMN is like the Starbucks (SBUX) of GPS units.  They are in many new cards and their advertising campaign is huge.  I could only imagine how much they are paying for TV advertising.  I see a GRMN GPS commercial at least once a half an hour watching cable TV.  I think this will really push to make consumers think they “need” their product in return wanting it for the holidays as a gift for an upgrade to their car.  Below is a chart showing technical reasons backing the price increase after earnings going up.  I see it going to $52 to $55 in the near future.

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The attack of the ROBOTS in Japan!

I was reading an article on a company creating a robot for excess of $250,000 to use as customer service for businesses greeting and informing customers.  I find it pretty cool yet scarey to replace human being jobs.  I guess regular people aren’t cutting it and the robot is starting to take our place.  Click here to read the full article.

Below is “Ubiko” the worker robot.

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Thank you Dell Computer for beating analyst expectations.

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Again, thank you Dell Computer.  When Dell beat earnings expectations the entire market after hours lifted up by next morning it opened some retail and tech stocks much higher.  I was focused on Sears Holding Co. (SHLD) after it tanked being such a good company making profitable earnings.  SHLD was creeping up since earnings but no sudden big movement but still upwards positive on the stock price.  I still thought buying Call options at the $172 stock price was a good level to get into.  So yesterday I bought the Dec 06 180 Calls at 1.50 planning on waiting for 2-3 days movement to hit my sell point at 4.00.  I’m excited to say this morning Dell earnings helped smack SHLD’s butt and made it up all the way to $180 selling me out around $179 at 4.00 profiting myself +$11,000

Now what to do?  Pay off my second note on my home which is $14,900.  I told myself the first time I get my account over $15,000 again I would take that money and pay off a home note and trade the remaining amount of money back up to that level again.  I believe making $700 to $40,000 in 4 months even if I am using profits as long as I make $40,000 that is my goal.  I might have to be extending my $40,000 goal because I can not trade while underway on my ship which I will be soon for around 2-3 months.  That would make it more like 7 months, still exciting and awesome if I can make my goal which I will because I know I can.

My account now is around $17,000 + all my bad trades or should I say non-moving stocks that haven’t done anything for me.  I told myself with my remaining amount of money I am going to trade expensive high quality stocks like SHLD, GOOG, NYX, FXI, MA, NUE, and AAPL that move consistantly and trade a like to catch trend movements.  I’ve built $2000 into $20,000 before when I knew nothing about stock options and traded penny stocks and dollar stocks which I recommend not doing because its very difficult. 

I trade risky so my if I do profit I profit much higher.  My SHLD trade lasted one day and made 175% which to the average investors that knows little about traded but doing understand what a return is would be blown away.  I’m blown away, but not that much since I’ve made much higher returns just recently and over the years.  I want to get to a point where I have a good deal of money and my trading activity becomes more stable with less risk.  Right now being young I know I can take the risk so I am trading like a wild gun.

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Using Java in wordpress, do you know how?

Hi.  I want to get my networthiq java window in the left hand corner but am having trouble posting java script anywhere to have it saved.  Is there a way around this or do I have to upgrade to make this happen?

 <script language=”javascript” type=”text/javascript” src=”http://www.networthiq.com/api/badge.ashx?u=financeninja&h=150&w=160&c=00CC00″></script>


50% Stock Options Trading Rule & Bullish Market Attitude

First of all I want to make a note that a reader made a valid point that I was trading 100% of my money.  True.  I am trading incorrectly and creating 100% risk for myself.  I feel I am able to take a such a big risk because I am young, still learning, I have the extra money, and lastly I request nobody does what I am doingTrading correctly if you only used 50% of your money to buy stock or stock options you can only loose 50% still having 50% remain.  If you loose that you still have 50%.  You last longer in this stock market game.  Recently I’ve lost over 75% of my money in my current holdings although I have not sold out yet.  Realistically I don’t expect to gain that 75% back on any given trade because my recent trades besides APPL JAN 07 85 CALLS.  APPL has been my best pick playing PUTS and CALLS and I’ve traded it not wisely either.  I admit I’ve been a sucky trader these past 2 months.  I’m in AMAT JAN 07 22.50 CALLS and they are worth $0 right now with a $5000 investment in it.  Personally I really thought with semi-conductors doing so well and AMAT being the leader in it’s industry going into earnings it would of had a stronger run.  Hence why I created it as a pick.  For the past 2 days it has created a run into earnings I just bought it too far before earnings because I thought there would be more of a run.  Now I know – To trade it later into earnings next quarters earnings.  Since it is worth $0 I am going through earnings unless by some chance the stock has a very bullish run up around 10% tomorrow which is very unlikely.  I can’t really loose anymore since its already gone and I have 2 more months in the options.  I can’t sell it either because there is no one to buy it at the moment.  On the other side having 4 days left in my GRMN Nov 06 60 CALLS, my enitrely WORST trade of 2006 because I was up 400% and did not sell it because of greed going into earnings, I have these 4 days.  A very bullish candle came up today and investors were re-buying GRMN with all the bullish tones in the market today.  Possibly just possibly if it has a good move in the next two following days I can still sell out of the calls with a small profit but get my money back.  I’ve been very foolish.  I want to help people, but first I need to help myself and get my mental side disciplined to sell sell sell when I am right and my trade goes into a sweet profit.  As for MSO DEC 06 30 CALLS I am also surprised every time it hits $22 it keeps coming down.  Across the board stocks have been going sideways before these economic reports.  With a positive note from the feds I believe now stocks will continue there second big move in there yearly trend going up. 

My worst trade of 2006:  Not selling my 400% up GRMN NOV 06 CALLS

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My mother sold out of her GOOG CALLS today and I’m very proud of her.  I believe she made around 3-5 points profits per contract.  You go mom!  Although GOOG went down she was convinced it would go higher and so did I.  She also could of had better trades following GOOG sideways up and down movement, but with patience she profited.

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My youngest (age 29) sister is recently buying her second house.  The second child in my family, second to myself, buying her first house.  My sisters were pretty stunned when their baby brother bought a home and then flipped it and turned into a rental income within a couple of months.  You go big sis!  Your house is beautiful and have fun in it.

Other news in my life is softball.  I’ve been playing the my USCG team for the past two weeks and its been a blast.  I’ve always dreamed about getting to play on a softball team, drink beer, and enjoy the game itself.  I give myself kudos for finally doing it.  My fellow co-workers I think are finally getting to know me a bit better because I like to stay low profile at work.  I’m going to make it an effort to continue playing until I’m finished in Hawaii with my boat.  Some other great news today is passing my tests to advance to Petty Officer second class.  By the time I make it within a year that will be another extra $500 to trade monthly to help me get to my goals.

The market has really created a bullish market attitude and I would tell anyone right now is a good time to buy many well-known retail and technology stocks.  I feel they are the best play.  Do your research with charts, company events, stock news, and how other stocks in its industry are doing also.  I feel I am about to have a come back just being patient and waiting out the currently sideways dips.

Some negative news that I have realized is that if I would of not traded around $1000 a month since the beginning of the year of Jan 2006 I would of paid off my second home mortgage of $15k.  That being said I realized I’m going to start putting half to my account and half to my mortgage.  Less bills the more saving and wealth I can create. 

Well good luck in the big game of options trading. -P


MSO settlement, Apple’s new iPod, AMAT earnings

I don’t like to use hope in the stock market.  It isn’t a good word to use because you either have a conviction that your stock is going up or down with technicals or fundamentals.  I feel if you “hope” then you are just betting as a gambler in the stock market.

 I was pretty convinced MSO, GRMN, AAPL, and AMAT were slowly going to move up.  It is only November 9th.  Most technical charts have been showing stocks flipping over and about to head down unless something else otherwise very bullish happenings…  This year could be different.  Like one year when everybody thought Wal-mart was going to go up with positive earnings into the holiday season the stock did the complete opposite.  Sometimes I get that feeling about right now.  For the most part stocks have created a large bullish white candle up such as AMAT and AAPL, but the market has been so sideways instead of going up into the season.  I’ve read in a book that if the stock market isn’t making sense then stay out until it does.  I think this statement is profound.  You shouldn’t trade if you don’t know where the market is going.

AAPL is getting big consumer demand for its new iPod shuffle boosting its stock higher creating a new white bullish candle.  AMAT earnings are November 15th and just recently technically it seems somebody big bought in for the run and new downgrades but a price target of $21.  MSO’s new settlement of $15 mil is a bummer even though Martha is paying $5 mil out of her own pocket taking the stock away from its high of $22.50 down to around $21.  GRMN is getting lots of bad reviews expecially by stock mover Jim Cramer though it seems to slowly be going back up.

My GRMN trade has really disturbed meI was up over 400%.  My ego thought or was convinced I should say that GRMN earnings were going to be positive and make the stock jump higher.  NOT!  Now my GRMN options are worth $0 (-$2600 investment).  I feel so dumb.  I don’t want this to happen again.  I don’t think anyone reads my blog, but if someone did I don’t know who would keep reading after reading a guy is up $6k and doesn’t sell.  I seriously believed my option was going to be worth more.  The greed got to me so bad.  I wanted to pay off my second mortgage or my new car that greed got the best of me and turned me into a big looser!

I promised myself if I can sell out of AMAT, AAPL, and MSO successfully I am going to donate at least 10% to some youth community organization.  I also believe the more you give the more you shall receive back.

I read a book about the city of Babylon.  I wish I still had the book.  I need to get read it again it had a lot of wise advice.

I’m going to make my goal or I’m not going to allow myself to trade real money for 2 months.  I love tradingIt’s one thing I really enjoy.

I’ve recently created a profile on this blog search engine called Technorati

Technorati Profile


Here come the Bears marching down Democrat blvd.

Now the mid-term elections are over and sadly the Democrats have the power.  You can expect a Democratic President next election also.  This is bad news for the stock market or at least my take.  From what I’ve see Democrats don’t help and push big business which creates jobs and lifts the market and the economy.  Don’t get me wrong I even consider myself very democratic, but when it comes to making money in the market the only seats and president I want are Republicans.  There is no more uncertainty in the market.  The votes have been made.  If you’ve been reading much of the market news you will keep hearing over and over again problems with big corporate companies.  Yes, companies are coming out with better than expected earnings, but problems still keep leaking out.  I feel if the market will push on companies will also have to tighten up and be more optimistic. Now that Democrats hold power it will be a fight for big business and spending lots of money to keep pushing the economy.  I wonder how well companies will do into the next year.  Taxes could change again and that could reflect in corporate profiting. Recently a shipmate I was teaching a bit about options to found some index funds I think investors shoud take noting of.  He came across http://www.ishares.com iShares is an ETF index funds managing company.  Just from seeing what holdings in the index funds, the possible growth, and the cost of an option I was very intrigued.  I am mostly interested in the international and global market index funds for Japan, China, and Korea.  The growth in China in phenominal compared to the USA and investing in it right now is the right time.  Over 2-3 years ago even my mentor was talking about investing in companies that have business in China.  I will begin investing in is FXI China Growth Index Fund.  The index has been steadly growing and is still very young.  The option prices are very affordable. Index funds are more liquid larger and are kind of like a big mutual fund but trades like a stock with options.  I’ve traded the QQQQ and OEX.  If the USA was growing like China the QQQQ’s would be in the $60-80 price range.  It kind of shows that growth truly is slowing within the US economy and its time to look for investments that will move elsewhere.

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Gambling on Garmin’s earnings – An eye opener

Today before the market opened Garmin Co. (GRMN) released its earnings.  As I woke up, went to work, got dressed, and dashed to a computer to check GRMN stock quote my face turned pale.  My heart literally stopped and I sat dead stairing at the computer screen.  GRMN @ $45 down -7pts.   Talk about a great way to start off your day at work.   Looked at my portfolio down -$10,000.  All I could think was “fuck shit fuck shit” repeatedly in my head over and over.  There wasn’t anything I could do about it now so I went to get some milk since I knew I couldn’t hold down a full breakfast.

Previously on Thursday Oct 26 I had the option to get out in GRMN up +$6000 profitably and I didn’t because I really believed earnings were going to pop up positively like all the other tech companies.  Everybody has been putting out better than expected earnings why wouldn’t GRMN?  My mother even told me to sell.  Up 300% and I think anyone else would too.  I didn’t consider myself being greedy.  I wanted to follow the profit trail because my trend line wasn’t broken and there was no negative news in its sector.  Even on Tuesday Oct 31 I had the options to get up 100% with +$2500, still I didn’t.  I feel now if anyone is actually reading this real live stock options trading journal that the writer and traders of this journal must be totally psycho not to sell.   I think I am.  What is wrong with me?  I broke two major rules I learned.  1.  If you are up 100% get out and 2. Never go through earnings unless you are only using a small portion of your profits.  I really broke both big time.  I feel I received my punishment 10 fold.  My account is now low again.  I built it really fast and I also lose just as much really fast the way I trade.  I really need to learn how to change my habits.

 I just recently attended a Stephen Covey workshop on “The Seven Habits of Highly Successful People”.  Although I do not consider myself a highly successful person I really do need to change my bad habits or should I say gambling habits when trading stocks. I only gamble stocks when I trade with 100% of my money. I do not feel buying and selling options is gambling most people think it is, it only is when you make it a gamble.

When you follow the rules you aren’t gambling quoted by my mother.  She is right.  Very right.  If I had followed two simple rules my account would of been doubled right now and I could sit back and not feel horrible about myself loosing all that hard earning money it took me to do in 2 months.   So from $700 to around $17,000 down to $13,000 now at $3,000.  Shit.  I really don’t have much emotional ties to it.  Yes I had to work and put my money into the account, but its just money to me.  I don’t spend it all I want to do is multiply it.  Shit happens, expecially when you break big rules being a gun slinger dieing young.

Don’t give up on me.  I’m coming back.  I plan to not go through earnings a second time with any of my options unless its with a very small portion of the profits I received.


Martha Stewart Living Co. (MSO) Earnings and Oil stocks

Okay.  First of all I’m starting to dislike wordpress.com because I typed a long summary of MSO earnings and other stocks and again it has been whiped clear and my work deleted.

Lets try again:

Martha Steward Living Co. earnings was what I expected.  Earnings are much better with increased revenues because of all the new companies taking up Ad space in her magazines, Tv show, online, and product sales doing great.  I think her products are marketed great.  Profits increase up to 45% and debt is going down.  If MSO can keep this up they should become debt free and have a cash flow business in the near future.  The stock rose 5% up to around $21.20 for the day.  There is no reason the stock shouldn’t keep stepping up closer to $25-27 share.  On the charts it has already created a massive breakout uptrend.  I believe its only half way to where it is going to go.   I’m think by January 2007 it could be at $30 if they keep increasing revenue and decreasing debt including beating anaylst opinions like they did today.

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Next earnings is Garmin Co.  If they beat anaylst I expect the stock to hit $56 Thursday.  At that point I should be selling out if I’m smart and not greedy like I was last Thursday when I could of sold out up $6k and got back in Monday to have 2 better trades then 1.

Look for Apple (APPL) to rise too with its new iPod shuffle just in time for the holiday season.  More iPods sold increase also revenue at iTunes for its iMusic sales.  The new Intel Power Macs are coming out too which many Mac lovers want.  So give it to them!

Oil is moving now with the market.  I saw a bullish turn in OIH today at a support price of $130 then it moved right up to a close of $134.  Oil is at $57.50 BBL which is also a support buying price.  I want to get into OIH Calls once I have another $1000 to invest with.  I see OIH hitting $145 in the near future.

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Crude oil drops below $61 barrel / energy stocks fall more.

So my predictament on SWN and OIH stock/options held true.  OIH just recently hit $120 and SWN down near $27 if you had PUT options you would of made a small fortune in between my first post and yesterday.   Energy stocks have rebounded a bit today with OIH and SWN at $129 and $30 again on the bump up entering on Monday you would of made a couple of points on both up to today.  I still believe oil and energy to tank lower.  The stocks are tired.  One stock that does surprise me in energy that is going into its earnings late October is EOG Resources.  It has not moved down the percent like other energy stocks.  It usually follows SWN but not the past month.  It could be late and soon move hard down. 

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 Currently I’m very bullish on Apple (AAPL @ $76), Broadcom (BRCM @ $47), AMD (AMD @ $25), Microsoft (MSFT @ $27), Research In Motion (RIMM @ $85- Could be falling back to $75), and Garmin GPS products (GRMN @ $47).  It seems tech is the place to be going into the fall/christmas trading season.

Other stocks I believe that have lots of UP potential because of new growth, opportunity,  and economy are Martha Stewart Living Co. (MSO @ $17), AMAT Industries (AMAT @ $17), and Garmin Co. (GRMN @ $47).

 Out of those stocks I believe the 2 to be most profitable to the upside through Jan 2007 are Apple Computers (AAPL @ $76) and Garmin CO. (GRMN @ $47).

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 I will research and review my stocks again soon.  I’m pretty optimistic the DJIA will hit $11,500 by end of Nov 2006 if interest rates are not raised and oil keeps sinking or stays around $60 a barrel.

NOV 24, 2006 update on my predictions on the current stocks = all correct except for AMAT and MSO which were my most speculative stocks which have traded higher but have not really followed the big market upward trend.  Trading any of those currently would of been an increase of 10-15% on stock price and 100-1000% on a call/put option.