Irrationally mad decision making to obtain the American Dream.

ROI

Market falls on a Monday – big earnings week

Surprisingly the market fell hard today steadily throughout the day. With the market going against the sell off on Thursday I figured it would continually go up throughout the weekend, but this was not the case. Google (GOOG @ 620) fell with major search engine Bidu (BIDU @ 334). I see good buying opportunities with a possible pop tomorrow since at the end of the day there was a quick late buying interest. If you saw Apple Inc. it spiked straight up the last 30 minutes with “3 white soldiers”. I’m playing a small position in AAPL OCT 07 170 Calls @ 2.06 and I have my GTC order at $2.60 which would make me a 25% ROI if I’m sold out tomorrow morning. If AAPL doesn’t move I’m going to sell myself out of the position.

This week will hold Google earnings. The king of Tech in my opinionGOOG is the stock to be watching because its growth has been huge each year. For the past two years GOOG jumped 30 points during Oct earnings release. I plan to trade only a $500 trade right before close of the earnings annoucement on Oct 18th.

As for dating life. I think this new girl I’m interested in works more then I do and that is a problem. It is great to see such a productive person, but I don’t know when we would ever have time to see each other.

My roommates plan on adding an additional 4th person to our 1 bedroom apartment. Yes, you heard me right. Four people in this tiny 1 bedroom. Currently I’m the only one working. They are getting annoying playing video games and drinking 40’s. I do not know how much longer I will last, but since I’m leaving on patrol again for a few months I can deal plus rent will only be 200-300/month or I could just move all my shit out again which is what I’m thinking I just might do instead and pay $125 in storage fees.

Last thing taking 3 classes, doing stock stuff, trying to meet ladies, living with 2 other guys cramped in a small apartment, and on top of that finding free time has started to add up. Did I also mention trying to buy this second park while my first one is about to become what I can an “end” investment. If I’m unable to rent this place I will take it as a lost and practically give it way because I’m not going to let it turn into a negative cashflow business which it currently is. I’m not giving up on it yet, but I told the property manager if we can get it fully rented by Dec 07 then I’m going to have to shut the entire park down and put it up for sale. I have a feeling this week is going to be a very tiresome week. Big money comes with big stress when theres no one to help you relax…

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Google (GOOG) @ $437 profited me $15,000 in 5 days off near month call options

Last week was an excellent week. My art was together doing its thing. The day I told myself I would sell out my profit went up to + $20,000, but I was at a major disadvantage because I had no phone to call my broker nor internet to sell out. I finally did get to sell out of my Nov and Oct 07 670 call options both well over 100% ROI in less than 5 days market days. I told myself I’d sit back now before jumping into a new trade. I might take a tiny bit of my profits such as $500 to go through GOOG earnings on Oct 18, 2007. The past 2 years GOOG jumped around $30 if it reported good results so if it was another good year my options should sell out the day of earnings profitably.

My eyes are back on Apple Inc. (AAPL @ $167). I think it has finally maken up its mind to start “moving” again. It is definitely capitalizing in on the iPhone and its monopoly. I am seeing more and more iPhones in peoples hands and personally I want one too! I currently have a Nano iPod and enjoy it very much without any problems. Earnings should be stellar with Apple also taking over the computer market currently staking a 25% stake in the share of all computers sold. Apple is hot right now. I’d like to be options and see it go to $200 price target. This may happen at its next expo in January of 2008.

Lastly the only other company I’m interested in is Sears Holding Company (SHLD @ $142) the retail sales reports scared the stock some, but many factors are coming into play to force the stock up going into major retail selling season. Historically on charts it doesn’t move much after mid-November it looks so I don’t know how much a play SHLD will be, but I will watch it for a trade.

The lady I’ve been interested in is awesome, but I don’t think she is interested in me. Maybe the friend deal? Lame. I got to dance with her at Octoberfest here in Honolulu. I had a blast and wish I could do more with her. I did send her flowers and she loved them for sure. I guess only time will tell if I have a fighting chance at her heart.

As for my trailor park my new manager is doing a great job and I plan to buy some new trailers on the lots to rent out more. The second park is still waiting for appraisals and contracts to be done. I bought a residential lot near Austin, TX for $1000. Its right in a major new and upcoming community with tons of golf courses. If I do retire is that what retired people do? Play golf all the time?

After watching Michael Moore’s “Sicko” I think I’m going to also buy land in Canada, France, and Cuba since the healthcare seems to be great and Cuba buying up Peso’s could be a great investment long-term.


stock market correction = uptrending

If you are a stock market follower you’d notice the different wording journalist are using such as “optimistic” that we hit our low just recently last Thursday Aug 16 to be exact. I was watching the market as AAPL was hitting $112’s and NYX was hitting $65’s. I was drawing my support lines because after the big red candle dropped a big white candle stood right next to it top to bottom and went right up with buyers looking for a golden opportunities. Since I’m still a student I really did not know which direction the market would go. On Friday stocks popped higher creating a doji star showing the market made up its mind. So now for the past almost 6 days the market has ran up with white candles breaking the downward trend since July 15th. I’m currently in AAPL JAN 200 CALLS up around 30% in my options +$3000 in 2 business days. I’m not going to sell at some crazy high number, but I am going to follow the major uptrend line until it is broken or bad news comes out, other wise I’m stick to my play. I’m very confident in Apple and until their next earnings call I’m going to trade it up to earnings or until I’m happy with my profit. I’d also love to be in SHLD and RIG Calls, but I’ve been taught to be in only one trade at a time even if there are other opportunities available. I need to stick to the rules and show some discipline or I’m never going to become a great trader.

Currently I’ve been looking at a trailor park to buy for $190,000. I’ve talked to many experts in this field and the price looks very good for what I’m getting which would be an 18 lot, 2.37 acre, with 18 park owned homes rented for $350-450 each, with all utilities established. It is around 20 minutes away from University of eastern Tennessee (Johnson City, TN). I’d really like to do the deal, but I want to get an outside property manager if I buy it. This is the advice I’ve gotten basically to get rid of any favoritism within the park. It would make some serious cashflow to my real estate portfolio. Between the 2 trailor parks I will eventually be receiving around a $50k net income a year more than my U.S. Coast Guard income so it would finally give me the choice of retirement at age 29. I still want to be a great trader, but it would give me choice even if I did not trade stock options.

I’m almost done with my 3 classes at HPU and will start another 5 online in the next two semesters. I want to double major by 2009 then do some pastry or music school or both when I get out. 2007 has been a very volatile year for my portfolio and my goal is to come out higher than last years or at least breaking even. Many of my penny stocks are worthless so I will have to sell them soon or I will be paying some serious taxes from gains I do not have anymore. Trends are looking good and the technicals are showing major buying right now so look out!


HOKU, AAPL, SWN, NYX – Latest news on the trailor park

After HOKU earnings the stock plummeted to $8 and I totally expected it to fall. Everyone knew they weren’t going to show a profit and it is still very much a speculation stock because it hasn’t been able to start production yet. I’m with Jim Crammer about people rebuying it at a lower price and it moves up again throughout the year on its speculation of being the #1 for alternative energy. Our world is moving in that direction so I could only expect growth. As for AAPL it’s iPhone has been a success, but the market is turning over and its stock is finally starting to become submissive to all the selling. I’d buy AAPL later, but I see it moving much further down into the possible $110’s before it moves into the $200’s. If AAPL is able to continue momentum then I’d buy Calls on it if it moves past $150. Then it will be fighting the selling, but investors are true believers in it. It’s PEG score also has moved down to around 1.66 from over 2.00. So its value has gone up as well with its super profitable earnings. SWN’s charts have been showing a flip to oil/gas companies. Its major trend on the Daily and Weekly are going down with all smaller charts. Just yesterday it bumped up because it was slammed down into the Bollinger bands. I expect it to keep moving further down in the lower $30’s. I’m playing SEP 07 35 Puts on it currently up around 10%. I plan to sell out once it hits around $35 if I’m correct. NYX is always a confusing stock. You’d think this stock would be doing what ICE is doing, but it isn’t. I’m in Calls and I think I’m going to lose my entire $7,000 investment if by Sept. it doesn’t move higher than $87. At its current price of around $74 I’m left dumbfounded and believing in the stock that makes me seem living life a bit bicariously. NYX has had almost 4 major falls with small peaks. This stock has to pop high if on Aug 2nd earnings are awesome and profits are up. It should pop past $90 because there hasn’t been much news on it. So if it surprises investors and analysis it could finally get back in the game and be a more volatile stock like it use to be. If you are currently playing Puts on it you are probably a lot more correct and wise thinking then myself.

As for the good old trailor park I bought. I’ve been working with my property manager. I’ve been trying to get the cable tv hooked back up because it was disconnected before I could transfer it into my name. Two of the tenants are refusing to pay their rent because they are not receiving cable tv. Can you believe this? I’ve never heard of such a moron of a tenant in my life! I told him to turn off their electricity and gas that day until they paid their rent or enforce them to be evicted that week. I’m not going to tollerate this type of behavior. Business is business and you pay your rent regardless if you get cable tv or not. I pay for their housing and all utilities. Cable tv is a luxury. I only see future problems with very low income low education tenants like this in the future. I’m trying to move all the tenants in and rent the trailors properly with full leases, applications, and deposits so I don’t get shitted on. If I’m going to make this profitable I need to take the steps to make it profitable and not deal with unacceptable tenants.


What is good property management?

Recently I bought this trailor park and problems are arousing weekly which doesn’t surprise me, but my property manager is starting to annoy me. I’ve been setting up a bank account in the county where the real estate is being held and it has been very cumbersome. My property manager and owner that sold me the property has been emailing me non-stop with gas leaks, dead cable lines, broken AC window units, and needed new flooring in trailors. I don’t like to think of myself as a slum-lord, but I feel most of these problems can be fixed by the tenants and the gas company. Isn’t the gas company suppose to fix gas leaks. It sounds like a problem they need to fix. If the cable doesn’t work or the connection is messed up you don’t fix it the cable guy comes out and since you are paying for it they check it out. I guess in Tennessee everything is the owners problem? I think not. So far I’ve bought a new AC unit, 100 YDs of flooring, and about to have to pay for a gas guy to repair what is sounds like major gas leaks. Personally I’m starting to think my property manager is doing a shitty job and I’m about to fire him because he should be getting the companies to fix their own equipment connected to my trailors. He is doing a great job at telling me all this and I know I need to have the money ready to fund all his property management duties, but is this good property management?

I have another property manager in Virginia that has it much easier because she only needs to deal with one tenant in single family residence, but she always comes up with solutions not to fix the problems. I actually like her style much more. Her downsides are communication. She does not email me. Email is my #1 form of communication and she rarely replies to anything I write her and does not provide a more personally daily checked email. What fascinates me is that she is a real estate agent just like this other property manager and doesn’t search for other properties in the area for me to buy when I’d be giving her the commission.

The positives about the property manager is Tennessee is that he will respond daily by email. Now he might misspell almost 1 word in every sentence he writes, but even I have grammar problems. He kind of writes how he talks in his very westernly-southern accent and it almost worries me. Should I be worried? Is he a person really to trust? Do I really need a property manager who is very educated to run my park successfully? I think the answer is no to most of these answers. So for the most part I trust hes going to get me tenants in and I hope he is going to search for additional trailors to fill the lot. I’ve already went online at OnedollarSigns.com, which offer very affordable mini-billboards signs for effective marketing I feel that will get all my trailors fully rented again. I’m working on getting 6 month leases as a minimum for secured rent. If I can get 10 units rented at $450/month then that is $4500/month cash flow and after expenses I’d net around $3000. So as long as my current property manager puts all my signs along my road frontage and maybe some others near by to collect interest, he fixes the gas leaks, and gets the flooring in to rent the trailor then I’ll be happy even if it costs me a bit more then I want in repairs.

So what is good property management? It could be the way you like to run your properties and that reflecting in your property management. For me I like a property manager that knows what is needed and not necessary. I think it is also what kind of property you are renting. I am renting a “full-service trailor park”. So I am expected to pay all the bills and more, but how much more? I get the feeling my tenants are going to try to find problems so I keep telling my property manager to only cover what we have to or we raise the rent. What are your thoughts?

Lastly, I have received all the Deed of Trust and promissary note on the property and will complete the deal this week.


Reading my stock market diary exactly 1 year ago…

Flipping through my market diary I find that many of my stock picks I follow are up around $20-30 pts or 25-40% in price. Specifically AAPL, NTRI, BA, GOOG, SWN, TGT, GME, FXI, and many others. I’m hoping to use some of my diary to get some excellent plays in coming this fall. The stock market has really been rising with todays big increase in the Dow Jones I wonder when the market will flip. Last year at this time oil was hitting highs of $76/BBL and currently we are around $71 from where it dipped at $61. Most of these stocks still have a low PEG score with low P/E. I’m curious if we will have a high priced stock market in the next year or two where we will see the majority of stocks priced over $200 including stocks not supposed to be priced that high which will eventually fall the hardest again.

Currently I’m checking out another real estate deal since this 5-unit apartment building fell through because the seller would not communicate with me so I could get escrow and my mortgage lender setup correctly to buy it. Another property I put on hold was a hotel unit for sale where the hotel pays you X dollars upfront for leasing it from you for 2 years giving you guaranteed rent up to 4 years then your unit goes in a pool to rent out and you collect from that. It is on the Hilton Head Island, GA. It is suppose to be a premier spot in the south east coast so I’m going to do some research on it. It costs $249,000 with a 10% down payment and I’d get back my closing costs plus another $30,000 with in 2 years of closing if I leased it to to the hotel company. But after the 2-4 years I’d be forced to put it into the pool to rent out and unless the hotel shows full occupancy 6-9 months out of the year long-term it might not be a good deal. I would earn $50,000 back in two years which would pay for my student loan of $40,000. It would produce $700/month cash flow if rented full occupancy 12 months a year. I’m going to discuss it with the seller today and think out my options. Even if I made $300/month continually after the 2-4 years it would still be a great secure cashflow.

Besides money life I went to check out a new room to rent and met two cools girls. I ended up not renting the room but asking one of the women out to breakfast and got a “yes”. I didn’t think it would be so easy. So luckily this saturday morning date will be a lot of fun. I’ve never asked out a girl on a date by checking out rooms for rent, but hey nerds theres an idea.


Trailor park success to be or not to be?

Well all I’ve got to say to yaw financial blog readers out there ya hear is that my good old trailor park will be a success becomes I’m going to make it one. I’m a proud trailor park owner. Below is a picture of some of my lots of trailors I own that will generate my future retirement with the right plans to help people and help myself. (Click to enlarge picture)

trailor park

I’m currently collecting enough cashflow to pay my mortgage, property manager, and all utilities.
What I feel I need to do as a landlord and real estate investor is to sell off my trailors as “home ownership” to the tenants to create long-term tenants that will fix up their own trailors over the time they own it and receive a small tax break on their taxes for interest they paid on their mortgage note. Then I’d receive longer-term tenants leasing the land the trailor is own. If they defaulted on their loan I’d foreclose on them and take back the trailor since I’m the bank.
I’d inflate the prices on the trailors I sell on my land to create low enough payments to be more affordable then they are currently renting them for to create an incentive to buy the home they are in. I’d still pay all utilities (water, gas, electricity, cable) as a full service trailor/rv park, but I would not have to pay for upgrading and repairing the trailors saving me a lot of money. I’d also be able to sell my mortgage notes at a discount to investors to earn back my initial investment of $10,000 and possibly a lot more. My goal is to buy 4 more trailors on the 4 empty lots and sell all 10 for at least $10-15k each collecting my mortgage note cashflow plus my land rent of around $200 a lot. If I could pull this task off with my property manager cooperating and on his game I should be able to pull off around a $3,500 net cashflow.

As easy as it sounds it is not in the least. I do understand great costs will be ahead. I am already redoing the flooring in a couple of trailors and some cosmetics to sell them. I’m also paying for better upkeep of the land they are on for better curb or should I say trailor appeal.
I’m hooking up a coin operated dryer and washer to increase my income. I know the tenants will use them and I’m actually considering building a mini-laundry mat on my property because its a major road and there aren’t any near by. I figure if I invested in at least 5 of each washer and dryer and charged $2.00 a load it could be worth building a small structure just for having people come, park, and wash their clothes, plus having my own tenants using them.

I took out a loan and I’m trying to use the least of it as possible. Unless buying more trailors I don’t want to invest anymore then $20,000 into the property because I want to pay back my loan before the payments are due. At the same time I need to create a master plan to make this trailor park a success in a rather small town in no-where Tennessee. There is a lot of traffic daily near my piece of land and many apartments are near it so a small laundry mat could possibly be a good idea to own. Have any thoughts?


HOKU, new recent real estate, and juggling college classes

Currently in the world of the finance ninja he has purchased his second real estate deal. The property is an RV/Trailor park in Tennessee. He has also enrolled in 3 online college classes getting closer to finish his BA, and his stocks holdings have still not changed -$21,000.

Why not talk in the third person?

About 2 weeks ago I believe I purchased HOKU JAN 2008 17.5 CALL options. I should of actually put a GTC up 100%, but of course I didn’t. Currently I’m up around 50%. I feel the stock has much more room to grow and I bought tons of time so I could receive a larger return.
Although HOKU is doing well I only had $1000 to invest so due to my negative -$21000 balance on the stocks owned my networth is still very unhappy with my bad decisions during the new year of 2007 trading.

As for my real estate developments I already know what you are thinking. How can I be purchasing real estate with no money left and who would want to buy a trailor park? Well, I went to a real estate game club that plays Rich Dad Poor Dad’s Cashflow and they sell real estate university packages with a website and company that prepares real estate deals for you. I didn’t buy into it, but for a bran new person it might be a great idea. Personally buying real estate isn’t that hard expecially when you are paying all the closing costs for other people to do everything for you. I actually have been looking on ebay.com real estate listing and loopnet.com listings. They offer a site called investorconcierge.com where you have to pay $3000 just to see the listings. Honestly I think that is crazy because there are already millions of listings available you can do advanced searches on to find bargains to start a real estate portfolio. Also to have full access to the site and first picks on the properties that aren’t any better then any others you have to end up paying around $21,000. Now if you want to do that great, but I’d rather take $21,000 and buy a properties or properties with that money instead of waste it on a 40 CD audio/video course I’m never going to take the time to watch because I’m spending 100% of my time on the internet searching properties and talking to professionals about buying them. Setting up deals isn’t hard. If you can do math then you can figure out if the property you are looking at will make you money. Speaking of properties the RV/Trailor park I bought in Tennessee, a state I’ve only driven through going to California, I found off ebay.com. I usually try to avoid ebay, but most people selling properties there usually have no luck selling in town possibly because its too small with no buyers interested or there to flip a properties quickly for a resale for a quick gain, but the property might be still very underpriced for its value. This RV/trailor park came across as an awesome deal if all things work out of course. It has 1.5 acres of land off a main highway near town. It has 10 units with 6 currently being rented. The owner owned all 6 units which were included in the property of sale. Each unit rents for an average of $450/month. Doing some quick math that is $2700/month income. The owner was selling the full park for $90,000 and offered owner financing at 10% if he got the full $90,000 with a mortgage note of $700/month. The owner/landlord pays all utilities of water, sewage, electricity, and cable of around $600/month.
So the net profit off this property with only 6 units rented is $1400/month or $18,850/year because he rents them weekly not monthly so that is an extra 4 weeks of rent (before property management fee of 10% net will be $1100/month). This is more than a seamn or E-3 makes in the USCG or Navy. His auction was up for a little less than 15 days I believe more than enough time for other investors to catch their eye. I’m surprised no one bought it sooner then I did. I basically just did some research on the town, talked to the owner, and found a property manager to take over the property for me since I will be an absent owner. All the seller wanted was at least $10,000 down which was reasonable and my student loans I took out for college and investing since that is my main independent study came to use finally. Anyone can take out a $40,000 student loan from any major lender. It isn’t very hard and you can use them for many things as long as you are a full-time student. I plan to use the remaining amount for a 3rd property and the rest two buy 4 more trailors for the park. That’s right. Four more trailors only renting at $400/month each would increase my cashflow to $4300 with a net of over $2700/month. Most likely my utilities would go up some, but not likely to double. As for why would the owner sell it for so cheap? I asked him. His answer was reasonable. He said he bought it 3 years earlier and it was a dump and dead. He put 6 old cheap trailors on them and fixed them up and now looking to sell it to go onto another deal. I figure he must of not put more than $30,000 into the 6 trailors and the piece of land. So selling it for $90,000 3 years later is an awesome deal for him and myself since the park produces a very good income. I plan to pay off the remaining $80,000 I owe him on a note sooner to increase my cashflow another $700 which would make it around $2100 with only 6 units occupied. I’m pretty psyched about the deal and my property manager seems very sharp and willing to do a good job. The property manager will earn 10% of all rental income so he wants to help me get those other spots filled increasing his cashflow. I will collect my first rent next week around July 11th.
I plan to build it up, buy more trailors to rent, and pay off the note within 2-5 years.

I enrolled in 3 college online classes in HPU. I expect to get underway soon and will likely blog more occassionally because I have nothing better else to do stuck on the boat once my watch is finished. I study, write some music, and research stocks. This is a normal day underway after work. I like to sleep a lot too, but drills prevent sleep so you do everything else in between. I’m finally qualified so I’ll only have to train for drills which will open more time.

As for am I happy? Well that real estate deal even though it cost me $10,000 felt like buying a bran new car even though it is very new or pretty. I haven’t been very happy lately. Actually this girl I asked to dance and talked to at a concert is really bugging me. I really wish I’d gotten her phone number instead of giving her my fun looking business card! Well I guess I might learn next time, or not. I’m getting fat too. As for personal life fatness sucks. No ninja is quick or stealth-like getting fatter. I plan to exercise more, do more push-ups, and sit-ups, but I have yet to get started. Why? Hmm… a little bit of lazy-ness most likely… Underway you usually get fatter since all you do is eat. I plan to only eat cereal and soups. This should cut down and help me keep that extra sea fat off.

well aloha
-fn


Current stock market conditions + NTRI, JSDA, GOOG

For the first trading day of April stocks are up probably from fund managers buying them up, but on 233min, Daily, and Weekly charts I don’t see any stock trades. It almost looks as if stocks are starting to turn over to fall or have a bearish rally. The two stocks that come out that do show a continuing uptrend are NTRI @ $53 and JSDA @ $22. Jones Soda Inc (JSDA) is currently up 10% so I’d wait to buy into this “hot stock” at the moment. To read more on it check this out. It is being compared to Hansen Inc. (HANS @ $38) to be the next big beverage profit machine. Google (GOOG @ $456) looks like it is turning over on the Daily chart, but the 233min chart shows it has been sold off and possible ready for its next run. As you see in the 55 minute chart below it shows GOOG being sold off for the past 7 days and today created two white soldiers that broke the short-term trend down. Possibly tomorrow we might see a large spread.

GOOG 55 Minute Technical Chart (click on chart to enlarge)

goog stock chart

I sold out of my NTRI JUL 50 CALLS today for a 30% profit in 1 month holding the option. It was a bad trade, I’m actually in a crap load of bad option plays, I should of waited and not bought into any position in the current market condition. So now I’m in a bind to slowly wait for stocks to swing in my favor to sell out at breaking even or profitable. For instance my BA APR 95 CALLS are definitely not going the way I thought Boeing Co. would move. It has already received around 5-7 big orders and the stock, although moved to $91, has not reflected all the positive news that will boost its earnings and increase its capital. BA sits at $89 pissing me off. I feel my option will run worthless and then in June its bullish historial run will happen so I definitely got in to early unless I am “lucky” this month to get a quick big run to sell me out of my position profitably. BA does look like it is at its low for its stock trend going up and down so it might have a run soon. Another option I bought NYX SEP 115 CALLS stock went down to $82 now back up to $97 talk about major loss. Again, if I would of waited for a better play I could of bought it way low and made a small fortune within a months time. Lessons I suppose you can only learn from losing money and trading during times you should be waiting on the sidelines of the field anxious to play. I do have a lot of time left in the CALL, but once it hits $105 I should be sold out + 100% though I could of been up around +500% if I waited to buy when there was a true reversal in momentum.

As for my two penny stocks CCNG.OB and WTVI.PK. They are doing what penny stocks do basically blow up and die. Although both companies are following through with their plans, gorwing their business, what they aren’t doing is growing investors confidence. both positions are down -50 to -75% and I’m not happy and will have to wait much longer to profit once they have respectable moves if they make any real money to surprise new investors to buy their stock. I plan to rebuy both CCNG.OB at the .0001 level. Recently a stock trader has mentioned ETIM.PK and its pretty funny that a company is selling “collectable casket/urns” nonetheless people actually do but crazy stuff for pets expecially. I liked the website and I’ll have to review more. People do die everyday and so do pets with limited lifespans so I could see how it could be a profitable business even when your “core” customers die too!


Recent option plays BA and NTRI – Also WTVI, CCNG, TRMP

Recently Call Option plays I’m in are BA (Boeing Inc.) and NTRI (Nutri Systems Inc.). BA current trend has been modestly going up daily, receiving new orders, with a low PEG, high FWD earnings, and continual solid growth. BA closed at 89.51. I’m playing the APR 95 CALLS. As for NTRI it just recently surprised Wall Street with excellent earnings and growth. It gapped up and has recently fallen some to where I feel a good buying opportunity is pretty. Just recently in the past 3 days the stock has moved up 2 pts and it’s likely that some of that $200 million buyback program has started with the price traded towards it 52 week low with a good story to rise its price. Analyst have also priced it at $76 with its current growth. I bought JUN 50 CALLS. Did I also mention that NTRI current PEG is below 1.00 at .55 this is at bargain level for a stock this is receiving large growth. NTRI closed at 47.67. NTRI traded .25 higher after hours.

Currently TRMP raised the idea of selling out its Atlantic City, NJ casinos for a cash sale. TRMP up 8% on Friday 9th. Currently I’m in TRMP options long and after reviewing the PEG, FWD earnings, and current sales it doesn’t seem like a great company to buy at the moment. The thing Trump Casinos does have going for them is the brand name Trump, prime location, and current value of half billion dollars. TRMP closed at 18.19.

As for every speculators favorite company http://www.wi-fitv.com the company endlessly puts out new press releases, which is keeping investors involved, at the same time I want the company to start heavily advertising the website on the internet to really raise the traffic, new members, and increased advertising rates for banners and tv commercials. Currently the company values around $250k from the current stock price of $.015 which went up today 25%. WTVI is slowly forming a support price. It broke $.02 cents and I was highly disappointed, but most investors are right thinking it will probably drop into the sub-penny levels. Personally, this is bad for current investors and future ones. A steady gain in price is much healthier and investable. If you see a stock going down and staying down you don’t want to buy it no matter how good the story is on the stock. As for a stock slowly trailing and following WTVI is CCNG. CCNG is a collectables company probably worth more in capital and assets then WTVI, but trading many times lower in the sub-penny levels still. I would be surprised to see CCNG trading at below $.05 by the end of the year while receiving more orders to sell to retail and franchisers. It currently trades at $.0004. If you currently bought 1 million shares it would cost you only $400 plus commissions. That is right only $400 for 1 million shares. If the stock goes to even just $.01 cent you would make a $9600 profit almost 11x more then you put into it.

Another stock to take look at is PSPM a technology company that has created patents for lower energy using lightbulbs and currently highered WestingHouse’s veteran sales person.
The stock has steadily moved down, but if they do sell their licenses expect the capital of the company to be worth over $1 billion dollars. For this reason PSPM is really worth looking at.


Bought back WTVI.PK @ $.023 – WTVI Marketing Plan

In WTVI’s latest press release the company does not say when they will use the $1 million dollars either before or after May 1st at least they have a plan now. A marketing plan that isn’t specified yet its a plan. I wrote WTVI asking them to please specify on how they will use the money whether it be on banner Ads, Google Ads, Overture, Linking, TV, Radio, or Pop Up Windows. I’d like to see their Ads when they come out to build their user database.

Currently at around $.018 to .025 I feel their is support and that is why I bought back some shares back like I planned to do when the stock dropped to a price where I felt it should be at. I would of waited to drop lower, but the price has been bouncing back up anything below $.02 so I purchased today at $.023. Once WTVI starts generating some revenue from advertising (when they get paid advertising) the stock will be worth at least $.10. With a little bit of hype, press releases, new investors buying stock, and growing user base the stock has a likely hood of rising to $.20 cents by May 1st. This is a BIG “IF” the company does aggressively market their website, new users come back to the site to use it again, and advertisers also agree that the wi-fitv.com site will also generate them revenue. Even at $.10 to .20 cents is an excellent profit on any amount of shares you have.

I’d really like to see the companies management come out with with a press release saying they are going to buy back as many shares as possible. It would show that the chairman and employees believe in their own company not just speculative short selling investors. Even if the chairman said he was buying back $10,000 worth I’d see that as showing he has credibility in what he says he is going to do.

Another stock following WTVI’s pattern, but has not been bought up by investors that is generating business currently is CCNG.OB (Charts of it are below also).

Below is Charts of WTVI 55 Minute, 233 Minute, Daily, and Weekly stock chart:

55 Minute

wtvi 55 minute stock chart

233 Minute

wtvi 233 minute stock chart

Daily

wtvi daily stock chart

Weekly

wtvi weekly stock chart

CCNG, a product company, offer collectables for business to business retail and consumer retail (through wi-fitv.com and internet marketing) has started to receive orders. The company has also been in business many years and has recently gone on the pinksheets to grow the company. The currently price of the stock at $.0008 does not reflect the revenue it is already receiving. I estimate the stock to be worth at least $.01 – .05 depending on continued growth, residual orders, and paying off debt. Below are some stock charts of the 55, daily, and weekly.

CCNG.OB stock charts:

55 Minute

CCNG 55 minute stock chart

Daily

CCNG daily stock chart

Weekly

CCNG weekly stock chart


I am triumph! I am a king on valentines day! My first real adult disciplined trade.

Okay so I’m up $45,000 so far in my WTVI trade and the candlesticks are extremely large hitting BB’s and for the past couple of days its been straight upward movement. I’m expecting some type of pullback but I could be wrong. I thought to myself it doesn’t matter if I’m wrong and the stock would of made me a millionaire or if the stock drops to nothing and I regret not selling. So I thought to myself what is $45,000 worth to me? Well the biggest thing that came to my mind is that its one years worth of full-time income at my current rank in the USCG. With that said I immediately got out a dice and said “if it rolls even I’m holding it and if it rolls odd then I’m selling it”. It rolled a five and odd number. I was asking God subconsciously what should I do even though I knew I should sell it. I thought this is the first time I would put greed aside and conquer victory early instead of at the last minute. I feel like I’ve grown up and gone on to second grade with this trade. I ended up selling WTVI at $.047 and made +$38k within the 6 business days I held it. I feel great. I’m not going to regret if the the stock moves higher and higher. $38k to me is a years worth of income, can pay off my car, half of my last mortgage, or use it for a better opportunity down the road. I believe WTVI traded a bit lower, but I don’t even care. To tell you the truth I don’t even want to look up the stock symbol for at least a week so it won’t get to me.

I was actually down -$3200 bucks in an AAPL option trade gone bad which will all expire today worthless. I was told Feb through May are the hardest months to trade and its true. I think what I’m best at is technical analysis, but even that doesn’t work well during these choppy times. Since this trade worked out and I didn’t get over greedy on this 900% + trade I survive another day in the traders world. My account has reached close to my May 07′ goal of $48,000 on my way to $1 million.
I’m not worried about $1 million anymore. I feel so good about just getting out of this trade and paying off my new car possibly in less than 6 months of buying it for $24,000. That my friend is power. I’m putting aside around $10,000 just for taxes and I plan to leave only $2000 in my account to start trading again instead of a higher number just so I dont’ get greedy and buy really big positions that will make me lose quicker.

I feel triumph, victorious, the king of valentines day, and I feel I finally made a real good trade because I was very right about the charts, right buy in price, company hype and selling before actual news comes out, and most of all not being greedy and selling out early.

cheers to me!


Discussions on Google.finance.com have taken off about WTVI

Since I started the first discussion and talked about how I saw the stock price slowly rising for WTVI by chart technical analysis others have came out posting too. I’m glad more discussion is being done on the company since its only blog site
http://wi-fitvchannelsales.blogspot.com
does not allow investors, interested parties, or a simple reader reply back to any of the blogs posted. It says “team members only” meaning sales associates in a nutshell. I think this is pretty lame. If you are going to have a blog for your company anyone and everyone should be allowed to say what they want professionally. I suppose even Wi-fitv.com can’t stop finance.google.com or my stock market blog. They should offer universal blogging on their site.

So far since I bought WTVI.PK off only technical analysis I was right about the MACD, DMI, and buy momentum. Someone has quoted it being at $.05 by Friday and I think that is a good possibility. I’d rather it move up slowly, but if it turns into a bust after Feb 19th then I think many of these shares will be sold off. But if Wi-fitv.com is even a bit realisitc about updating its site format, uploaded videos for channels, and marketing the site the stock will definitely see spikes in the price which is good for me =). I would of not bought this company not even accepted if for $0 because the site didn’t even make me want to stay on it. Nothing interesting, no online members, and all the channels were so boring and ridiculously not realistic for a “tv show”. Usually when you pay $25,000 for a channel you have a tv show format and you try to make your audience keep watching, but this was definitely not the case on these channels.

Wi-fi wireless technology is booming and video on demand over the internet is increasing with major growth so wi-fitv.com is right to say they are in the right spot for explosion. Here’s a recently I read backing wi-fi wireless technologies full strength and some companies you might want to take note in. Scroll down to where it talks about wireless technology and backbone companies. Click here for Yahoo! Finance article.

To find my posts on finance.google.com WTVI discussion board click here.

Let me know your thoughts if you have any new news on the company or if you think it has a fighting chance and why.

-FN


My monthly saving should get easier with less trading…

Recently with my plan to see how far I can get gains as close to 100% a month on my initial investment of $2000 I should be able to save more money in my checking and savings accounts by not depositing more money into my trading account. So far my $2000 has grown to around $8000 in 3 months.

I was putting every extra couple hundred dollars into my OptionsXpress.com trading account to trade options with, but recently I put an end to that because I was just loosing it all. I feel if I give myself certain amount to trade and that is all I get for a long time psychologically maybe I will trade more disciplined and do more solid trades. So far it has worked and money has been building back up in my bank accounts.

So far I have $2700 saved up in my savings account and $1800 in my checking account. If I do not deposit any bi-weekly paychecks into my trading account I should be able to build an extra $1500 a month into my checking and $725 a month into my savings. A total of around $2225 a month or over $24,000 for 2007.

My car note still has $24,000 on it and I’d like to pay it off first and second my mortgage that I receive a rental income on which is still $58,800. My car note is 8.25% and my home 6.5% so paying off my car note first would be the economical choice to save money. My question is should I apply all my extra money to it monthly or pay it off at the end of the year in one lump sum? I guess psychologically if I see it being paid down each month I’ll keep paying it off while if I just leave a big fat sum of money I might start thinking “spending and buying” or even “this might be the big trade” and loose it all on something dumb materialistic things or a bad trade. So, paying off my car monthly with a larger amount probably would be the smarter choice.

If I trade less and focus on just those few I should have less losses and I’m taught it’s not about having big gains, but having very small losses. Recently I receive a big gain then big loss. If I could just stop the cycle of big loss it would really speed up my money goals in trading.

If anyone has any suggestions on what to pay off first my house or my car please comment.
My car has a 7 year note and my house a 30 year mortgage. I could finish paying off my house in 3 years and then have my car note left for 4 more years. Tell me what you think.


FOMC Meeting – The Fed Effect on the Stock Market

Well we are heading into the FOMC meeting where everyone gets nervous about things we already know, Feds not going to cut rates any lower, duh! Most likely when the Feds make a statement to the public annoucing they will not be cutting rates for the entire year at first the stock market will panic and then come to its senses because its already been a known fact that has been engrained into our daily stock market media news.

Current prices in Hawaii’s home market (the housing sector of the market) is tanking putting smiles on cheap investors like me. I wouldn’t call a 240 sqft studio with $400/condo fees for $136,000 cheap, but compared to just 2 months ago the sellers were asking $160,000 which is a big cut. Hundreds of homes and condos in Hawaii’s high priced selling market are finally coming down because buyers aren’t willing to pay those prices and they are truly not affordable making renting the smarter choice. Now I am actually looking to buy again getting approved for a new loan. If I do get qualified I will buy something in the middle of downtown Waikiki near the surfing beaches and shops for a prime rental unit later down the road. Even if my mortgage and condo fees together cost me $1500/month I can easily rent it for $3,000/month or $750/week to vacationers looking for a hot spot to stay in. Average hotel room is $150-300/night so for $100/night it is a bargain to own and use as a rental. Now I just need to get approved.

The Fed meeting will more likely increase rates so you really want to buy before this happens. If rates go down that is a good thing to lockin on a 30 year fixed mortgage. My current income is only around $44,000 plus if I do anything part-time might add another $6,000 a year. If I make any serious chunks of money in trading stock options I use that to pay off my mortgage or car first. I’m hoping to advance and get a nice $500 extra pay raise a month before 2008. Depending on how the Fed talks positive or negative on the current economy stocks could stay flat or turn sharply in either direction. This is basically the Fed’s effect on investors in the market making them panic or be confident about their portfolio. It really doesn’t matter for me I just want to know a fixed answer from them.

Another thing I’d like to mention in this blog with my condo buying info is that now because I did buy my first new car and have a $430/month payment it will hurt me most likely in borrowing power to buy a condo. The fact is I don’t want to get something that will gobble up my entire paycheck at the same time if I buy something else to rent out I will still have that new mortgage plus the cost I will have to pay to rent my own place in hawaii which will most likely come out to the same or more. I’d really like to own a condo in Hawaii. I blog about if I able to get one or not with the lowered prices soon. If I get a second job that would be an extra stream of income to pay off my car which I want to do first to increase my cashflow again.

Currently the market isn’t doing much but recently OIL energy stocks are really showing a change in direction and I’m playing PUTS on OIH. I basically need it to hit around $129 to call me out to make 25%. I also think NUE, AAPL, and CMG are about to head higher.


Lower forecasts, weak earnings, missed earnings it all works for me.

Lately the market has been in a slump and I plan on it to keep falling with continuing conservative estimates for Q2 earnings, weak earnings, missed earnings, and price wars for the chip technology sector. Bad results are still profitable for me and easier to spot out. My 90 APR 2007 Put options on AAPL are up $1.20 or around 15% percent. I bought them at $90.53 and the stock price of AAPL is currently $86.70. They were up as much as 30% today, but the current downtrend of the market, its negative tone on earnings, and increasing oil prices kept me in the option since it is going in my favor. I definitely want to sell out soon, but I can wait because AAPL is still due for a bigger drop in stock price, I think below $80. I also own 75 Feb 07 Put options and they are up 25% percent, but not worth as much. My 70/30% earnings report options play didn’t work as I assumed it would. I think the smarter way of going about earnings is seeing what happens the day after and buy calls/options upon the results. With stocks either your right or wrong about the direction. Once you know the direction and the general market tone and where it is going the smart thing to do is trade with the current direction.

You can view stock charts of current technology and oil stocks trends I did (Click here).

Currently I really like NUE for steel and OIH and COP for oil stocks to buy to go up now. I think these are going to be the best plays for profiting in 2007 for the first 8 months.

I think AAPL could have a growth spurt later in the year once the iPhone is being sold and see how consumers respond to it. I already know I’m pretty likely to buy one because I really do not like my RAZOR. I like Cingular, just not the phone.


Reviewing stock market chart trends for Apple Computer (AAPL), Research In Motion (RIMM), Las Vegas Sands Casino (LVS), and Conoco-Phillips Oil (COP)

Below are some charts I saved for blog discussion. If you think I’m wrong about the direction of the stock then explain your “why” in the comments or if you think I’m right let me know also.

Below is RIMM’s Daily and Weekly chart.

First is Research In Motion (RIMM). Recently a large sell-off has probably been influened by a lot of reasons 1. Feb Bernanke comments, 2. Apple taking market share and AAPL self-off, and 3. Jim Cramers Mad Money showing saying to sell RIMM probably got fragile investors going. RIMM earnings aren’t until April 2007. Since the market is turning over right now and many over bought and higly priced stocks are getting a lot of profit taking. As you have seen with AAPL and RIMM as soon as fear is shown and investors are worried about loosing profit more selling happens bringing in a new trend of selling with worried investors. Just recently Fed Bernankes comments of a “fiscal crisis” is not what positive optimistic investors wanted to hear. That is a great reason to start buying Puts on all your favorite stocks.

rimm_18jan07_daily.JPG

rimm_18jan07_weekly.JPG

Below is AAPL’s Daily chart.

You can see Apple Computer’s doji star reversal sign with a opening low gap after earnings. You can also see volume being sold off and changing direction. For the past 5 years AAPL has moved down after Q1 earnings even if beating analyst. I expect AAPL to open lower again 1/19/07. It might move higher, but end lower.

aapl_18jan07_daily.JPG

Below is COP’s chart.

Conoco-Phillips has been trading sideways with good size Call and Put trades going both ways. Currently I think COP is going higher even with the recent Crude oil at below $50 BBL. We are going to be hitting a support level soon on crude. They oil companies are going to pay off congress or something. It will happen and oil will go higher again probably to $60. There has already been reported a cold-wave coming through the states and oil prices/bills are going to rise for next quarter. I think COP, as a company, stands out. This Call position might be too early. There is room for error here that COP could go lower, but I think my entry point is on the money.

COP chart

Below LVS’s chart.

Las Vegas Sands Casino company has done quite well and still growing. I remember when this stock was only $60. At that time it’s trend was going up on all charts. I was buying other options most likely for AAPL and some stocks I regret now trying to get more growth when LVS would of did it all with FXI. I think some profits are going to be taken off the table and this stock will be pushed down to $100 again before it moves higher unless it trades with the rest of the market down.

lvs_18jan07_daily.JPG

well let me know your thoughts to discuss leave a comment.
thanks, finance ninja


AAPL Earnings – Whammy! Plus life on the boat…

Life has been somewhat groggy here on the boat. My super duper options strategy did not work on AAPL. The stock did pop up 4 pts in afters just to be sold off by insiders to open much lower creating a doji start (lower opening gap). Well you know I don’t care. Okay. I was wrong the stock price didn’t goto $105 or higher as I was wishing so screw it I’m playing Puts on AAPL as far as it will go. Last year it has records earnings too just to have the stock price drop from the $90’s to the $65’s. I told my mom the price was going to drop no matter how good the earnings were and I was right, but she and the stupid iPhone news convinced me other wise to play a small position of calls.

I played a too far out of the money play at Feb 125 calls worth $0 now and a smaller way out of the money Put position of Feb 75 Puts and both go down. I’ve been finding this pattern of after earnings both out of the money options go down. This makes NO sense. I’m sure there is some reasoning behind it, but it makes my super plan fail fail fail.

I saw the charts turning around 2pm EST for AAPL making a small bull attempt just to go further down. I bought in at around $90.50 and currently its $89. My option is in the money (yes for once in my life time) APR 90 Puts. If it does anything like last year and the years before that its going to fall hard for a couple of months the move back up with its new iPhone product if it sells well. I’m not upset over being wrong even though it was a real money play. I was so sure AAPL would either fall very very hard or jump very very high. It did go down 6% but I was expecting a bit more dramatic hit then that. I suppose in the next few days it will be down another 10-15% if I’m correct. The chart indicators show a Put play with an engulfing red candle and a lower opening gap doji star with a reversal down hammer. My Feb 75 Puts probably will become profitable if AAPL really falls within the month which could make me two over 100% plays for Feb 07 beating my monthly increase of trading cash goals and closer to my $1 million trade mark.

As for ship life my new working schedule has made me a bit groggy, but I’m starting to get use to it. I’m making a couple of new friends I hope and finishing my qualifications to advance in rank within the next 6 months for a modest pay increase to increase my savings per month.
We will soon hit our next port call. I hope I come back with surfing pictures to blog about.

later -fn


50/50% earnings report scenario – The great idea continues – Update

Well guys it seems I have a bit of depressing news on my research and option practice plays on my 50/50% earnings report scenario play…Out of 5 earnings report only 1 worked to receive a +27% gain in 1 day, which was Wells Fargo earnings. Even on my higher priced stocks around $50 the movement wasn’t anymore then 2-3% so the options BOTH went down interesting enough if the stock moved up or down, which doesn’t make any sense to me. I bought next months options (Feb 2007). If I don’t buy far out of the money then I’d have to have a large movement in the option to just break even where as out of the money possibly with a higher priced stock the movement could be a bit more volatile moving the option faster. So far in my practice plays I haven’t see a profitable trade to my liking.

I really belive this type of trade can work. I just need to fine tune it. Apple Computer’s earnings is tomorrow and I know with all the excitement behind it will either pop high and go higher or tank. What I did learn from my practice plays is that it has to be modified in the direction you want it to work. So if I think AAPL @ $97 will go higher after earnings then I should buy a higher pecentage of Call options and a lower amount of Put options for the insurance just in case I’m wrong. So this is exactly what I did going into earnings 75/25%.
If I’m wrong I feel it was a profitable chance worth taking. I feel even if I only make at least +$300 its profitable. Today after hours I’ll see what happens with AAPL.

As for now the 50/50% play hasn’t worked like I dreamed it would. I suppose every trader would of been doing it. I am going to keep doing my research practicing this play in my log book for every name bran company name until earnings season is over to see if I can fine tune it down to make it work or at least see how my options change before and after earnings.

cheers – fn


Apple Computer iPhone, AAPL option trade, Condo Investments

Apple Computer’s announcement of its new iPhone and iTv was no surprise as the stock dropped 3 pts right before CEO Steve Jobs came out with the iPhone around noon PST. As soon as it was shown investors bought in confidence AAPL stock and it rose up 8%. The following day buyers that did not buy the first day tried to get in on the action raising the price another 5%. This is when I had the decision to sell my AAPL JAN 07 100 Calls and get out +$2000 instead of being negative -$4300 just 3 days before!

I’m pretty impressed by the sleek look of the new iPhone and I’m even considering changing my Cingular RAZR for it if it works easy. I keep my cell phone on me all the time and have a nano iPod and I actually really want my iPod in my phone. I think the iPhone idea is brilliant and will be a profit machine for growth for 2007 AAPL balance sheet. The only shortfall to the iPhone is its small harddrive for space. Until a new iPhone comes out I might not get it because its small 4/8gig harddrive is just not enough for all my songs, video podcasts, and data to store on it. This could be the new wave of ultra-small computer devices. Yes, Palm has been out for a while but it was more of a mini-desk organizer then a phone or music player. I owned the sweet Palm phone (silver) back in 2000 for $400 so buying a $500 iPhone really isn’t that big of deal. I do not find price a problem here. Just harddrive space at the moment I think will upset new iPhone users like myself.

As for the stock play I did on AAPL this trade definitely wasn’t the worst trade I’ve ever done because my GRMN trade being +300% and not selling before earnings Nov 15, 2006 is definitely the worst trade. This will have to be my 2nd worst trade of 2006 just because the smart thing would of been to buy these option contracts just days before the Mac Expo. I should of sold out at a $500 loss earlier and bought back in at $.20-30 per contract and bought over 100 and made such a bigger % and income from the trade probably half of my USCG salary in less that 3 days! I am journaling this for next time. What I did do which is good trading but isn’t bad either since it helped me get out profitable was I bought in increments when the stock price went down so my ending cost basis for my options was $1.22 per option and I sold my options at $2.05 giving me almost a 100% profit for around 35 trading days or about a month. Again, bad trading. I’m sure their are some investors that are reading this that are thinking this is a fantastic gain in such a short time, but believe me this is really bad trading, although I sold before earnings and didn’t hold my options being greedy. Because of this reason I have already improved 100% personally and more disciplined.

I saw AAPL starting to hit a ceiling today and thought to myself I’d rather have money in the bank right now then be wrong about tomorrow. I sold before the option pricing starting to go down with the close of the day. In after hours Cisco came out with a big “I’m sueing Apple over iPhone name patent”. So my thinking of I could be wrong tomorrow was a smart move. AAPL stock is pretty bullish right now so hitting $110 or even $120 by earnings is possible, but its also possible it could fall hard right after earnings. For this reason, today, I am happy in Hawaii.

My next trade will most likely be FXI Puts with its strong new trend downward all charts are showing a downtrend and lots of profit taking is happening. I don’t care to be right I just want to perform in my trading for 2007. I’d rather be wrong and sell out early and keep my money.

As for my Mexico property investment the new terms are better on a condo I looked at while I was there even closer to the beach I am in the process of putting a purchase contract on for $560,000 Pesos or converted to USD $52,000 and I’d have to put around $5000 into renovations then rent it for 4-6 months a year to break even. This condo is less expensive than the smaller home I would have liked to buy, but now I am thinking this is the better rental income investment over time.

Another idea I had was build a decent size log cabin on some land in Virginia and rent it out as a hunters lodge during hunting season, ski resort people looking for a private place, weekend retreaters, and churches for retreats. Right now I don’t feel I could really do it well without help and none of my family is really interested at the moment so I will make this a project for later possibly.

As for beginning the new year of 2007 I’m pretty happy being sold out of all my options and feel I have a fresh start of trading wiser and more disciplined this year. For one thing I’m going to stop depositing money into my stock account to trade. I’m just going to build up my savings, something I’ve never really done before. I’ll probably use that money to pay off my car loan because that would free up $400 a month I could keep saving and not worry about that loan payment by the time I’m out of the USCG.

I hope this was helpful to any young or old investors out there. Lesson today is not to be greedy and sell when you are happy.

An article I liked on Apple Computer’s hype and glory for the secretcy of it’s products was done great by a blogger from the Utility Belt. Also here is an article on the growing middle class of Mexico starting a mortgage boom that will help build Mexico’s growing economy by BusinessWeek Online. A good article on the iPhone and how it will definitely change the computer-phone industry by theStreet.com did a great job here.


New 2007 year begins with negative news from Fed, also Apple’s big week, sell-off on Asia ETF’s?

First off the Santa Claus rally did happen ending 2006, but Fed news for 2007 this week made investors sell. Investors were not to happy hearing rates will not be cut and possibly rates to go up later in the year. I think this should be expected if the Feds are trying to balance the sheet with inflation. We are way behind on inflation. Although if interest rates rise higher and inflation goes higher that is a signal for a bearish looking market to come. The recent oil drop to $55 BBL and Steel stocks way below their 52 week lows are starting to hit support. Take OIH Oil Trust @ $129 and NUE Steel @ $54. If you expecially look at NUE charts it shows a correction is starting to take place with a reversal hammer to go up with a long stick down showing the stock being bought up in the past week. Also my Puts. NUE hasn’t gone down past $54. It went from $60 to $58 to $54 and again I was up 25% but because I didn’t sell out when I was up the option is down because it is getting near expiration date with the stock supporting at $54. I took my first loss today because if I am going to start the New Year off right then I need to sell my options not doing anything for me, which brings me to Apple. Apple’s Mac week is next week which should bring up its stock price with good news from it because it seems Apple has really gone out of its way to make a “bang” this year for customers. Even its website keeps its new products mysterious and creates excitement for Apple users. Apple earnings is January 17, 2007. Profits on iTunes downloads and new iPods are predicted to ramp up sales and show a surprise. Right now my option is down -150% and I need to bring it up to at least to break even at $1.42. The option price even with the current good news raising the price to $86 has done little for raising the price back up.

One big lesson I’ve learned with options and buying out of the money in the same month of expiration is that once you are up 10-30% in the option when you are right the first 2-3 days get out immediately with your profits and don’t wait for the stock price to move further. I was correct in my AAPL, NUE, and AMAT options but because I did not sell them immediately after I was right I’ve lost on all 3 of them. As Cramer says you haven’t made any money until you sell and it’s in your bank account.

Recently China’s ETF purely liquid fund FXI has vomated out 10% of profits. FXI hit a high of $118 and just recently in the past 2 days fallen over -13pts. If you look at the charts the stock is one huge line up from skyrocketing up with buying. Even I feel some selling is going to go on. I still think FXI is going higher, but the stock price could come down past the $90’s for now. It’s predicted that if China’s markets have a sell-off in the new year that for the next couple of months the stock will go to half its current stock price. If that was true then that would be a very profitable PUT option play on FXI. I am going to examine that charts on it to see if the sell-off reversal is going to hold and more profit taking will happen. Currently FXI is up 80% and falling. Jim Cramer says in his internet articles that since Asia’s companies are so liquid that owning the ETF fund makes it even more risky unless you can wait for it to come down and buy back into it. I even have a friend who bought FXI around $93. I asked him if he sold it when it his $112 or even $118 he said he didn’t. I would of sold for that type of profit. Now he does own the stock. I’d never buy the stock I’d buy the Call options which would of been worth a couple thousand right now even with the fall. But now with a new trend it might even be easier to play it down then to play it up.
As for the new year my first port call was Manzanillo, Mexico. It was beautiful although the surf wasn’t going off in town I heard there was surf farther north or south. I checked out 5 different properties for sale and really liked this smaller 1bed/1bath with huge lot overlooking the Santiago bay. It was actually a really nice casa that just need a bit of upgrades to make it a really great rental, but I am currently finding it very hard to get a loan that makes it profitable to own it and rent it out. I first thought mortgage of $600-700 would be okay because I’d have to get out a second loan with a mortgage of $200 around to make upgrades like new electrical, upgrade kitchen, and furniture to make it a turn-key rental that is just 3 blocks to the beach and 5 minutes from downtown shops. So now with the only loan I can receive at 20 years at 9.9% mexican rate which would be over $700 month not including all my taxes, insurances, and bank trust fees a year + my second loan over $200/m for cosmetic upgrades to make somebody want to rent it I am finding it might not be the best investment right now. Even if I could rent out easily for $1000 a month for a solid 6 months out of the year that still leaves me with $900 X 6 month = $5,400 out of my pocket a year to pay for something that isn’t rented possibly or even possibly for 1 whole year would be over $10,000 which could be saved in an account. Long-term if the property rises 10% a year because the town is growing and many projects are being built their my return on investmetn could be 30% in 3 years by the time I get out of the military I could have $30,000 in equity built up if I sold it and could cash out. I’d really like to talk to a professional about this, but don’t know who to talk to because most people do not understand investments like this. I can get this loan, but I just don’t want to struggle with payments since in 3 years I am out of the military I’d be up to $2,000 a month in mortgage and car loan bills! This is not good. It would only be good if I could sell my property for a good size gain or pay off my first mortgage and my car loan only leaving one big bill left. If I am able to rent it a solid 6 months out of the year for possible more that would help on my payments, but I’d like to live in something I own in the end.

So I still have more port calls to make. I might find a better deal somewhere else. It would just be awesome to live so close to the beach where great surfing waves are. I just want to make wiser decisions because I want to be either debt free or have great investments in 3 years. If I make wrong decisions it could bring on the pain and put me again behind schedule in retiring early and young.


2007 best stock picks for options trading

Updated! 1/12/07

2007 Stocks picks were easy to pick out at least from charts. 2006 stock picking was difficult because many of the stocks I was watching at the time traded very choppy and with the drop in May 06 to Aug 06 it caught many investors off guard. You could of threw a dart at any stock in Aug 06 and would of received excellent profitable returns on it. Last year this time Google flew to a new high then tanked. The second half of 2006 market has been very bullish that thinking the bears are hiding around the corner isn’t a possibility, but they are! At least I think so. I think some older stocks like Amazon.com are going to fly higher again while stocks that have been in the spotlight for a long time like Google.com, Sears Holding Co., and Apple Computers are going to fall the hardest at the top of their game. This is option investing so this is why I am interested in stocks that could fall hard meaning big profits and also pick stocks that I think will also go up in price.

[For my own practicing I’d buy these Call/Put options today at the current stock price as if I was for real. I will go over my top picks 6 months and 1 year after today to see if I was right about the direction of the stock or until I am happy with my profits. These Calls/Puts will be used on my 2007 best stock picks for trading options. (To make it easy I will buy 10 contracts (1000 shares) for each Call and Put) I may be incorrect during the short-term on these fluctuating stocks, but for the long-term before the end of 2007 I predict the following most profitable.]

2007 Top stock picks for Call Option Trades: (Meaning I believe these stocks will trade higher)

iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI @ $107.65) 1/3/07 hit $118 +10pts
FXI ETF Fund has been extremely strong in strength closely following our market trends but includes over 90 companies held in China that are growing with China’s economy. Big uptrend solid on all charts. Plus everyone knows how fast China is growing and with this ETF you own the companies that are receiving the profits. Possible dips but strong on uptrend.

Amazon.com (AMZN @ $39.80) Would sell. Weak around $38 1/12/07
I predict Amazon.com Co. to head north to $60 or close to this price level because solid earnings, increased profitability and revenue, and buyers are finally interested in the stock again. Yearly trends are forming into an upward trend. Two upward peaks have already happened. Amazon.com is a great place to buy theses off of. It has everything and consumers come back. If you look back at strong sales growth in AMZN when it does well the stock jumps and heads higher for months until the profit taking begins. AMZN is undervalued under $40.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG @ $56.25) 1/12/07 hit $58.20 +2pts
CMG is a new company and does simular family-like resturant but hip like Apple Bee’s and TGI Friday’s. Delicious food turning into a delicious stock investors are eating up. Although I feel $56 is actually high, CMG is setup to go higher and has a strong IPO trend. I see CMG moving to over $60.

Research in Motion (RIMM @ $127.62) 1/8/07 hit $142 +15pts
RIMM has been having an outstanding year with AAPL and technology sector. Robust profits and keeping market share. It has been pulling back, but trends have not been broken. I still am confident RIMM will hit back up to $140 then to $160 before it either has a stocksplit or falls from an “okay” quarter.

2007 Top stock picks for Put Option Trades: (Meaning I believe these stocks will trade lower)

Google.com (GOOG @ $458.00) Wrong about GOOG. At $455 it bottomed out. 1/12/06 hit $505 and rising. Buy with current uptrend going into earnings.
Google.com may goto $600, but indicators are showing it will go below $400 price level first. Google is loosing its fame and fans and the stock is being sold off.

Sears Holding Co. (SHLD @ $166.63) Also wrong about SHLD 1/8/07 bottomed at $165 now hit new year high 1/12/07 at $177 +10pts up and rising with strong retail sales. Buy going into earnings.
Chart indicators show a “Black Cloud” hovering on the top showing weakness in buying. Could be a large move downward into the $130’s.

Apple Computer (AAPL @ $81.51) Half correct so far about rising to fame with the Mac Expo going as high as $97 1/10/07 +16pts wait to see after earnings and what happens to CEO Jobs for options probe.
Apple Computer has shown the most evidence after earnings in January to come down. I think this year for Q1 Apple will have a great year, but investors will be selling while they are having a great year. Although I think short term into earnings Apple should perform well back into the 90’s, which hasn’t happened yet -10pts within the past 2 weeks I believe AAPL will have a rise to fame then crash and burn to around $65 support price in Feb-Mar 2007. Yearly charts are lined up to go down hard, but up short term on oversold stock. For the most part it seems most stocks are lined to sell off in 2007.

2007 Wild Cards – The Steel and Oil Industry could go either way. I predict the following.

OIH Oil Holdings (OIH @ $140.00) 1/11/06 hit $126 low +14pts on a PUT play, right, but maybe bottoming out to go higher with low $51BBL oil could rebound. I’d buy Puts at the moment and once the price lands around $120-130 I’d rebuy Calls. Charts currently show selling off. But big trend shows oil could be getting a lot more expensive very soon.

Nucor Corp. (NUE @ $55.54) 1/12/06 hit $56. Seems bottomed out and cratering to the upside. Earnings Jan 24. Never went lower then $54. I’d buy Puts at the moment and once the price hits $45 rebuy Calls. Downtrend currently, but long term steel could get more expensive very soon.