Apple Inc. (AAPL) earnings disappointment was pretty predictable with all these other big tech players falling also after good earnings. I don’t like to say “I told you so”, but this stock has been ready to fall hard. From the beginning of the year 2008 this stock has just trembled at every market moving news. Since it did not move UP into its big deal Mac Expo and analyst were boo-hooing the new products that should of made ANY Apple investor worried. Other Apple speculators are saying, “I’m buying AAPL on sell off” well I think they are very wrong on that decision. When a stock has fallen, then falls harder, you are going to buy it on the rush of a sell of? Are you crazy? For a prized stock that is falling there is good reason not to be buying.
This sums it up quoted in an associated press article:
“Apple’s guidance has historically been conservative, but such a divergence from Wall Street’s estimate rattled investors already skittish about the economy.”
“Tuesday’s stock plunge was likely worsened, Snorek said, by the exodus of a large number of investors who had hoped Apple’s stock would be a refuge from the economic pressures hurting the overall stock market.” – Jordan Robertson, AP Technology Writer
One good point is that Apple Inc. guidance is ALWAYS “conservative” so since they told investors their outlook would show some slower growth (duh!!! look at whats going on with other consumer growth stocks and their partner AT&T (T)) no wonder why AAPL dropped after earnings (just like the stock does many times over). Now will AAPL’s stock fall more? I’m sure of it. Will it continue on big charts to move up with hot products? Most definitely. This is a short-term hard down move, but likely to continue so if I was you or myself I wouldn’t be in a buying position of Apple Inc. anytime soon until the economy shows some recovery and Tech stocks show a real correction and real buying from bigger institutions. AT&T reported consumers slowed on buying bigger plans and defaulted on normal ones. Hello! This just proves that slow growth should happen on the iPhone since consumers can already not affoard their normal cellular plans.
Look at Hansen Foods (HANS) stocks has been falling with its major Monster Energy Drink brans, especially big in the X-Games, has been falling hard even with a peg of 1.06. This stock still has a bright growth future, but now are teenagers buying less $2 energy drinks? (or is it really the parents lower on cash so don’t buy the more expensive brand drinks?)
Oil prices at the pump haven’t changed much. I think most automobile consumersr are getting used to $3 gasoline prices which are liked to get a boost again with increasing oil prices that shouldn’t slow down anytime soon which will keep boosting profits for stocks like Southwestern Energy (SWN @ 51) and Ocean Outriggers (RIG @ $124).
I think solar stocks like First Solar (FSLR) and HOKU Scientific (HOKU @ $9.20) are likely to fall until a new President is in place and makes a real energy plan to keep boosting production and make solar “special” again. If you have been reading the reports 2009 will be a HUGE year for solar companies just because by then their new production plants will be made and producing tons of polycillicon very wanted in the industry going up in price making these small solar companies worth and valued you more in stock price (then they currently are).
But back to Apple Inc. I like the new laptop Air, I might even buy me one because they are the first to use flash memory for the harddrive. If you aren’t a computer nerd this means faster processing times, less harddrive crashes, and more efficient system. This could be a huge seller. Who cares that it is thin. It uses a flash harddrive and of course very sleek and hot looking. I don’t know how far Apple Inc. will drop, but I’m think below $100 (which would create a peg of 1.00). Where do I think it will be by November 2008 earnings? Hmm. Depends if these rate cuts do the trick and creates more money so people keep buying gadgets. If Apple continues to take more market share there is no reason its stock won’t stop charging pass $200 again. I think realistically Apple might do a 2:1 stocksplit since they just lost $40 billion in share holder value, maybe a split at $100, might get people think to buy it at $50 is cheap (even though its the same price/value). I like Apple. It really trys to innovate and create “new” and that is a company anyone wants to own. I should note the downgrade it got today just throws “warning signs” for future downtrend. Downgrade on Apple? Are you crazy analyst, well not so crazy at least for now…
Quote cited from:
Yahoo! Finance Associated Press Article on Apple Earnings
Okay okay! Yes I know I have not blogged in probably 2 months. Bad on my part, but it didnt’ seem like anyone even reads my blog anyway. More of a gesture to myself when I do right and wrong. From my past underway trip a co-worker, who is now out of the military, found this stock HOKU at $4.25. The company is actually located only 20 minutes from the place I live now. My friend, I’ll call him PO, was telling me about contracts HOKU was going to receive later in the year, now. I didn’t think much of it. “Now” the contracts have been completed and are starting. This HOKU stock that was $4.25 then is now trading over $9. It is up 100%. I’m pretty proud of my friend. He bought it around $5 and was worried it was going to fall, but was psyched and sold it when it popped over $7. So I congradulated him on his successful trade. Only recently HOKU’s stock PEG and P/E has been shown with the new contracts reflecting in its new price movement. At $9 it still has a PEG score of .19 and PE of only 8 times earnings. All I can say is WOW! It’s market cap currently is only $158 million, but it is on a growth streak. Since it has 2 contracts now I would not be surprised to see more come with currently over $1 billion in work orders. What is even better is that it trades options so I can buy a leap option on it for under $1 still.
Mentally I’ve been in a dead zone, not knowing where to start, and every practice trading coming to a halt of problems. I definitely have not been on my game. I feel I’ve got now game. My trading has been getting weaker instead of getting stronger. I just can not figure out why I keep trading worse and worse. I start practice trades and dont’ finish them or find it agonizing to finish them because I’m so wrong. I mean how wrong can you get when there is only a 50% chance of being wrong. I was taught that it doesn’t matter if you are wrong or right what matters is knowing what happened so you can use it in your favor the next time you do that trade. I just don’t know exactly what I’m doing. I try trading stocksplits, spinoffs, earnings, annoucing products/shows, and world market moving news and some how I keep ending up on the losing side of the table.
There is also another point I want to make here that makes me sound 100% foolish trading my own plan for the market. I told myself last year when I lost tons of money to not trade after January and not until at least September. If you haven’t read any of my blog posts then I’ll inform you that I have been very actively trading when I told myself to stay out of the game to warm up and prepare myself after the summer. I find myself a foolish unprofessional mess.
I have made some mad money, but I’ve also lost some insane needed money to increase my wealth. I keep fucking up. It basically comes down to that. Now I wonder. I see a value growth stock such as HOKU and wonder is it the next TASR (TASER) which will run up and die or like an energy drink that gets a lot of buzz, a lot of publicity, and increases its market share and holds ground? Will it sky rocket and dive down during the summer or will continually move up and be a sufficient trade? Being only .19 and 8 times earnings I don’t see how I can go wrong, but it has moved up 100% in the past 2 months. I don’t want to get on the wrong side. Should I be playing Puts? It just doesn’t make any sense with such value.