Irrationally mad decision making to obtain the American Dream.

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Apple (AAPL) hits $140 & Southwestern Energy (SWN) hits $46 as I predicted in early May 09′

AAPL @ $140 from a low of almost $122 two weeks earlier.  I knew it was a minor set back and going into their expo/product annoucements for early June 09′ would make the stock wtih increasingly more buzz around people switching computers.  I think most investors and regular average Joe’s think Apple’s stock “hotness” is over, but I think it is really just half way through.  Apple first started with the iPods to gain customers, then got them hooked on their computers, then onto iPhones, then back to laptops, and now Apple just needs to offer the new home entertainment experience which they are getting close to with the iTV.  Their products keep improving and so will their stock.  The health of Steve Jobs the “visionary’ doesn’t help say if he did die or had to step down I’m sure that would put a downer on the stock.  In the meantime hower AAPL’s stock should rise again like GOOG.  I’m on with my targets hitting $140.  It should hit $145 before June 6th which is the predicted annoucements.  From there it could jump to $160-180 target price if really good news or a new product.

As for Southwestern Energy Company (SWN) it hit my target price of $46.  Recently moving in waves and now staying above the $40 price level.  If I was trading call options I would have made some killer profits in the 200-500% range with both stocks moving 10pts in a month up and down.

Both AAPL and SWN have received upgrades from respectable brokerage firms noted Goldman Sachs for AAPL.  This could be an unpredictable summer.  I was taught for the most summers and the stock market fall.  Basically “come May go away”, but since there is a BIG smiley face on most charts (big rising valley U) I would almost predict some stocks will hit new highs in the summer going into the fall.

My fingers are still crossed about the Hawaii Real Estate market.  I know eventually prices will increase, but I’d love to see some volatile high ones within the next year so I can sell my condo for a fat profit as planned because I got it for dirt cheap.  Another part of me says make your loot in the market, pay it off, and keep a long-term vacation home.  Well I’ll see what happens first.

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Hit my first stock target price prediction on Southwestern Energy Company (SWN) @ $41

SWN yesterday hit $41 and just today pulled back as typical, but definitely on a moving force. I believe the last time I spoke last week it was over $35.  What a great call option play, but I’ll have MY day and as long as I keep up with my numbers I should be more ready this fall.  It might just work out for me this time with the market poised to turn harder up with all of Fed. Bernanke’s talkin-the-talk, rumors being spread, some mediocre better numbers on economic reports, and stocks finally moving back up leaving their steeply discounted prices.  It bothers me a bit.  I admit it, I want to trade so bad.  I have to resist the powers and keep my promise to myself….man these months discipling myself not to trade have been hard.  I get these voices saying, “come on this one will work, you’ve been waiting for it, it will only be one trade…” I have to resist the evil within.  I’m sure it means fun and good intentions in it’s own evil mysterious universal ways but I need to stick to my big guns and keep them strapped in just a bit longer.

There will ALWAYs be trades in the future, big moves, small moves, and no moves.  Everyday the stock market goes up and down, sidways, and life goes on.  Today I’m a trader, tomorrow, and for the rest of my life.

I WILL MAKE LARGE PROFITS OFF YOU SWN, AAPL, NUE, GOOG, SPWR, FSLR, GME, and housing stocks your time is near!  You better be afraid market makers of this big Clint Eastword city slicker trader!  Be very afraid I will come back the Green Giant!

Other news on stocks – General Motors (GM) 1:100 reverse stock split.  What a joke.  NOW THATS A PUT OPTION PLAY!  This stock when it goes from $2 to $200 (your money cut in half) will start selling like girl scout cookies.  Oh, the put option on that baby will be one fat profit play mark my words.  ill do an update on it a few weeks after its split.  reverse stock splits are the worse.


Google (GOOG) @ $437 profited me $15,000 in 5 days off near month call options

Last week was an excellent week. My art was together doing its thing. The day I told myself I would sell out my profit went up to + $20,000, but I was at a major disadvantage because I had no phone to call my broker nor internet to sell out. I finally did get to sell out of my Nov and Oct 07 670 call options both well over 100% ROI in less than 5 days market days. I told myself I’d sit back now before jumping into a new trade. I might take a tiny bit of my profits such as $500 to go through GOOG earnings on Oct 18, 2007. The past 2 years GOOG jumped around $30 if it reported good results so if it was another good year my options should sell out the day of earnings profitably.

My eyes are back on Apple Inc. (AAPL @ $167). I think it has finally maken up its mind to start “moving” again. It is definitely capitalizing in on the iPhone and its monopoly. I am seeing more and more iPhones in peoples hands and personally I want one too! I currently have a Nano iPod and enjoy it very much without any problems. Earnings should be stellar with Apple also taking over the computer market currently staking a 25% stake in the share of all computers sold. Apple is hot right now. I’d like to be options and see it go to $200 price target. This may happen at its next expo in January of 2008.

Lastly the only other company I’m interested in is Sears Holding Company (SHLD @ $142) the retail sales reports scared the stock some, but many factors are coming into play to force the stock up going into major retail selling season. Historically on charts it doesn’t move much after mid-November it looks so I don’t know how much a play SHLD will be, but I will watch it for a trade.

The lady I’ve been interested in is awesome, but I don’t think she is interested in me. Maybe the friend deal? Lame. I got to dance with her at Octoberfest here in Honolulu. I had a blast and wish I could do more with her. I did send her flowers and she loved them for sure. I guess only time will tell if I have a fighting chance at her heart.

As for my trailor park my new manager is doing a great job and I plan to buy some new trailers on the lots to rent out more. The second park is still waiting for appraisals and contracts to be done. I bought a residential lot near Austin, TX for $1000. Its right in a major new and upcoming community with tons of golf courses. If I do retire is that what retired people do? Play golf all the time?

After watching Michael Moore’s “Sicko” I think I’m going to also buy land in Canada, France, and Cuba since the healthcare seems to be great and Cuba buying up Peso’s could be a great investment long-term.


Human Resoures – Not an easy job. Stocks – AAPL, SWN

Recently I’ve just started a fasttrack college course for an upper level Human Resources class. HR is much harder then I expected. I thought it would be cake! I give HR people much more credit now having to understand all the laws, rules, and regulations on hiring and planning your workforce. Being an HR takes brains I do not have to spare.

For stocks AAPL @ $138 has just been waiting for something to make it move. The news of its 1 millionth iPhone sale is good news to my options which are now in the negative again since I did not sell them when God gave me the choice to up a couple grand. I’m going to stick to my guns about AAPL stock moving much higher. I have to admit the $10 g’s I put into the options can not lose since that money is needed for another mobile home park I’m interested in buying. AAPL currently has a strong upward trend and I count on it to move much higher into Oct if more, many more, iPhones are sold. It’s a hot product and with the price reduction it should sell much more because a new “i” trend product. I’d like to make $20 g’s on AAPL options move the initial $10 g’s out into my escrow for my down payment and use the profits to buy more options. Another stock moving right along which has 100% broken it’s downward trend is SWN. SWN @ $42 now is steadily moving up with new $80 oil highs. Historically both stocks AAPL and SWN and NTRI have moved up end of August into October.

Currently I’m in “C” school for my military rate. It’s awesome. I’d really like to live the college dorm life even in my 30’s. Good food, exercise, computers labs, and young beautiful women. It doesn’t get much better then this. I feel so relaxed and no stress bothering me except getting business deals completed and selling out of stocks profitably.

So far I was wrong about SWN options since I bought them way way too early in Aug and now in Sept they will expire when the stock is just started to move up the past 6 days.
My NYX options that end is Sept have no chance since the stock is so hated. NYX should be a powerhouse and maybe one day it will be trading very high, but for now it doesn’t move past the $80’s.

I’m keeping an eye on NTRI which has moved down to $48 and now strong up into the $55’s. RIG @ $105 is still in the .31 PEG. Unbelieveable if you ask me.


stock market correction = uptrending

If you are a stock market follower you’d notice the different wording journalist are using such as “optimistic” that we hit our low just recently last Thursday Aug 16 to be exact. I was watching the market as AAPL was hitting $112’s and NYX was hitting $65’s. I was drawing my support lines because after the big red candle dropped a big white candle stood right next to it top to bottom and went right up with buyers looking for a golden opportunities. Since I’m still a student I really did not know which direction the market would go. On Friday stocks popped higher creating a doji star showing the market made up its mind. So now for the past almost 6 days the market has ran up with white candles breaking the downward trend since July 15th. I’m currently in AAPL JAN 200 CALLS up around 30% in my options +$3000 in 2 business days. I’m not going to sell at some crazy high number, but I am going to follow the major uptrend line until it is broken or bad news comes out, other wise I’m stick to my play. I’m very confident in Apple and until their next earnings call I’m going to trade it up to earnings or until I’m happy with my profit. I’d also love to be in SHLD and RIG Calls, but I’ve been taught to be in only one trade at a time even if there are other opportunities available. I need to stick to the rules and show some discipline or I’m never going to become a great trader.

Currently I’ve been looking at a trailor park to buy for $190,000. I’ve talked to many experts in this field and the price looks very good for what I’m getting which would be an 18 lot, 2.37 acre, with 18 park owned homes rented for $350-450 each, with all utilities established. It is around 20 minutes away from University of eastern Tennessee (Johnson City, TN). I’d really like to do the deal, but I want to get an outside property manager if I buy it. This is the advice I’ve gotten basically to get rid of any favoritism within the park. It would make some serious cashflow to my real estate portfolio. Between the 2 trailor parks I will eventually be receiving around a $50k net income a year more than my U.S. Coast Guard income so it would finally give me the choice of retirement at age 29. I still want to be a great trader, but it would give me choice even if I did not trade stock options.

I’m almost done with my 3 classes at HPU and will start another 5 online in the next two semesters. I want to double major by 2009 then do some pastry or music school or both when I get out. 2007 has been a very volatile year for my portfolio and my goal is to come out higher than last years or at least breaking even. Many of my penny stocks are worthless so I will have to sell them soon or I will be paying some serious taxes from gains I do not have anymore. Trends are looking good and the technicals are showing major buying right now so look out!


Apple Inc. (AAPL @ $126) big pull back expect lots of buying

Apple Inc. (AAPL) just recently took a big pull back at $126. I’d load up on shares if I wasn’t broke! hahahaha. Seriosly! Okay I’m not actually broke, but I definitely feel like I’m spent out to the max. For anyone interested in getting a bargain AAPL at $126 currently is because Apple Inc. is a great company that will keep earning profits even if the financial markets have a melt down because of its trendy very wanted products. AAPL current growth trends are off the charts by out selling the entire PC industry with its sleek charming Mac computer sales. All those iPods are finally paying off because those customers are switching to Macs. The iPhone will just be another diamond ring paying off big once it picks up and it will. Apple’s advertising on Tv works. The iPhone is awesome. Apple Inc. keeps turning heads with every new and old product they created improving everything about it, and Apple fans are great influence of more products being sold with mega word of mouth.

Even though currently on a 1 and 5 day chart AAPL looks glim and very bullish I expect bullish up ticks tomorrow or Monday back to the $135. IF AAPL continues to fall with the market (since the market IS falling) then better for me when I will have some capital saved up to buy it when it does start moving up again. I thought AAPL’s flame was over, but with new affordable Mac’s and the creation of the iPhone we could have another 2-5 years of upward growth for AAPL stock. This year I predict it to go well over $200 a share with increasing market share in the phone market and computer market. That currently would be a +$74 profit per share or around a 7000% profit on any option you buy now good until 2009.


HOKU, AAPL, SWN, NYX – Latest news on the trailor park

After HOKU earnings the stock plummeted to $8 and I totally expected it to fall. Everyone knew they weren’t going to show a profit and it is still very much a speculation stock because it hasn’t been able to start production yet. I’m with Jim Crammer about people rebuying it at a lower price and it moves up again throughout the year on its speculation of being the #1 for alternative energy. Our world is moving in that direction so I could only expect growth. As for AAPL it’s iPhone has been a success, but the market is turning over and its stock is finally starting to become submissive to all the selling. I’d buy AAPL later, but I see it moving much further down into the possible $110’s before it moves into the $200’s. If AAPL is able to continue momentum then I’d buy Calls on it if it moves past $150. Then it will be fighting the selling, but investors are true believers in it. It’s PEG score also has moved down to around 1.66 from over 2.00. So its value has gone up as well with its super profitable earnings. SWN’s charts have been showing a flip to oil/gas companies. Its major trend on the Daily and Weekly are going down with all smaller charts. Just yesterday it bumped up because it was slammed down into the Bollinger bands. I expect it to keep moving further down in the lower $30’s. I’m playing SEP 07 35 Puts on it currently up around 10%. I plan to sell out once it hits around $35 if I’m correct. NYX is always a confusing stock. You’d think this stock would be doing what ICE is doing, but it isn’t. I’m in Calls and I think I’m going to lose my entire $7,000 investment if by Sept. it doesn’t move higher than $87. At its current price of around $74 I’m left dumbfounded and believing in the stock that makes me seem living life a bit bicariously. NYX has had almost 4 major falls with small peaks. This stock has to pop high if on Aug 2nd earnings are awesome and profits are up. It should pop past $90 because there hasn’t been much news on it. So if it surprises investors and analysis it could finally get back in the game and be a more volatile stock like it use to be. If you are currently playing Puts on it you are probably a lot more correct and wise thinking then myself.

As for the good old trailor park I bought. I’ve been working with my property manager. I’ve been trying to get the cable tv hooked back up because it was disconnected before I could transfer it into my name. Two of the tenants are refusing to pay their rent because they are not receiving cable tv. Can you believe this? I’ve never heard of such a moron of a tenant in my life! I told him to turn off their electricity and gas that day until they paid their rent or enforce them to be evicted that week. I’m not going to tollerate this type of behavior. Business is business and you pay your rent regardless if you get cable tv or not. I pay for their housing and all utilities. Cable tv is a luxury. I only see future problems with very low income low education tenants like this in the future. I’m trying to move all the tenants in and rent the trailors properly with full leases, applications, and deposits so I don’t get shitted on. If I’m going to make this profitable I need to take the steps to make it profitable and not deal with unacceptable tenants.


Reading my stock market diary exactly 1 year ago…

Flipping through my market diary I find that many of my stock picks I follow are up around $20-30 pts or 25-40% in price. Specifically AAPL, NTRI, BA, GOOG, SWN, TGT, GME, FXI, and many others. I’m hoping to use some of my diary to get some excellent plays in coming this fall. The stock market has really been rising with todays big increase in the Dow Jones I wonder when the market will flip. Last year at this time oil was hitting highs of $76/BBL and currently we are around $71 from where it dipped at $61. Most of these stocks still have a low PEG score with low P/E. I’m curious if we will have a high priced stock market in the next year or two where we will see the majority of stocks priced over $200 including stocks not supposed to be priced that high which will eventually fall the hardest again.

Currently I’m checking out another real estate deal since this 5-unit apartment building fell through because the seller would not communicate with me so I could get escrow and my mortgage lender setup correctly to buy it. Another property I put on hold was a hotel unit for sale where the hotel pays you X dollars upfront for leasing it from you for 2 years giving you guaranteed rent up to 4 years then your unit goes in a pool to rent out and you collect from that. It is on the Hilton Head Island, GA. It is suppose to be a premier spot in the south east coast so I’m going to do some research on it. It costs $249,000 with a 10% down payment and I’d get back my closing costs plus another $30,000 with in 2 years of closing if I leased it to to the hotel company. But after the 2-4 years I’d be forced to put it into the pool to rent out and unless the hotel shows full occupancy 6-9 months out of the year long-term it might not be a good deal. I would earn $50,000 back in two years which would pay for my student loan of $40,000. It would produce $700/month cash flow if rented full occupancy 12 months a year. I’m going to discuss it with the seller today and think out my options. Even if I made $300/month continually after the 2-4 years it would still be a great secure cashflow.

Besides money life I went to check out a new room to rent and met two cools girls. I ended up not renting the room but asking one of the women out to breakfast and got a “yes”. I didn’t think it would be so easy. So luckily this saturday morning date will be a lot of fun. I’ve never asked out a girl on a date by checking out rooms for rent, but hey nerds theres an idea.


hi. i’m back, after a long quiet break.

My family just left Hawaii. I have my life back again. Only 1 week feels like eternity. It felt like the longest week I’ve ever had in hawaii. The days seemed very long and tiresome. I enjoyed spending some time with my siblings, but it became cumbersome and annoying getting everyone to agree on things to do, eat, and see. I thought they would go along with my plans but I was very very wrong thinking I was going to get away with my ideas. I’d say 50% of time was just arguing with them. It was a relief dropping them off at the airport. It is funny growing up as the youngest child. No one ever listens to you and things really don’t change as you get older. I just feel belittled all the time and they just tell me I’m negative. Sometimes you wonder if you really know your family because by the time you got old enough to think for yourself they were out of your life so they just know you as a hell-wild child! So yeah. I love them, in some family type way. I can’t even agree with my mom on stocks. She is trading and studying worse then I am. She holds and carries around her Jim Cramers “Mad Money” book religiously. She also watches his show taking every advice and new stock personally. I have not seen her buy one option on a stock she has actually found herself or personally interested in.

My family has always been poor. It is everyones goal to be rich, ironically we are all still very poor. Are mindsets subconciously still keep saying “I can’t I can’t” instead of “I can achieve this”. Now educational wise my sisters have very high achieving degrees, but financially they still think like lower middle class kids.

It has always been a driven goal in my life to help these teenagers think rich. I want to help them believe they can obtain money if they plan according and start young. Financially by comparison even losing much of all or should I say 90% of all my profits in the stock market doing bad trades I still have much to show for and have done very well financially planning and obtaining my money goals. My next big goal is to buy an apartment building to create a larger cashflow and long-term investment to build more equity in.

I haven’t been blogging much about stocks because I’ve been losing bad. My recent plan is to start with a $1000 and work my way back up again. I think my gutt tells me to trade Calls on AAPL on dips. Looking at RIMM, AAPL will likely go much higher and I believe with release of its iPhone product the stock is going to jump much higher. The summer should be shakey. I’m also going to keep trading NTRI. I like it a lot and its story shows it will keep moving up.

I still have losing trades open worth basically $0. I could close them out, but since 80% is stock and not options I’m willing to just let it stay in its zero coma until it either bankruptcies and deletes itself or something happens with an unknown surprise. I really want to pay off my car. This is my number one goal. I have $22k still left on the loan. These would give me an extra $400 to invest/save for something else.

I will be going on patrol again soon hoping to play Rich Dad Poor Dad’s Cashflow with other coasties to boost thier IQ’s just a tad bit in real estate and maybe even help one get involved.


Stocks, Stress, and Acupuncture

I just recently received my first acupuncture and coupling therapy or should I say rather relaxation time. I just got the massagers info off the internet and she was very friendly and willing to charge me a lower rate for my income. She first did massage, then coupling which is like heated suction on your back to take out acids, and then needle pins in my hands, feet, ears, and head. It is suppose to reduce or get rid of stress for a week. I’ve been pretty upbeat and I have to say more then usual. Even my roommates have told me last night I’ve done a 180, but I think it was more of just being in a good mood and joking the horror movie more than anything. I also got to jam out with my friend on our music project so that was awesome.

Stress recently has gotten the best of me because I’ve been trading so miserably, decreasing my networth day by day, and seeing the pearly gates of heaven burn burn burn infront of me.
If I plan to make a difference in the world with money I’m going to have to make it, not lose it.

I recently, or should I say finally, got my bran new custom 6’6″ classic fish surfboard. I’ll post pictures soon. It’s very wide and fat more than I expected, but very quick.

As for stocks there has been super profitable plays all that I did not trade because I am in over my head in losing dead end trades. I really don’t believe in investments. I laugh at people saying I’ll wait 10 years for a stock to move in my direction. For myself I’d be really old by then. Why would I want to wait 10 years I suppose it’s the same type of person that strictly invests in IRA’s, 401K’s, and planning on retiring after 20 years of military or civilian corporate employment. Well that isn’t me! I want to succeed in trading options now within a certain time frame so I can retire early, much earlier then my peers. I’m sick of working. Working is for droids. I want to “live” and I really mean that in the wholeness of “live” not just work my whole life for no real purpose.

Well enough on the philosophical approach.
Big gainers recently have been probably #1 AMZN and AAPL. More calm big movers for the liquid market would be the QQQQ’s. If you haven’t you really need to check out the big mega trend. Could this be a very bullish year or is the market ready to puke up some serious profits?
Many stocks turned this week after the Dow hit $13,000 level. My MAY 05 105 PUTS in FXI are going my way and all the main charts are lining up for a big fat fall on FXI’s big ass. Things can always change and I may still be wrong if I don’t sell soon for a negotiably decent profit of around 20% for the month.

Recently I’ve seen a change in momentum on WTVI.PK. Not a stock I’m too fond of but its not even a stock its just a penny stock. If it IS TRUE that they enrolled a real astonishing 50,000 new members then its a big milestone and accomplishment for the boring yet “trying” website. This could create major new buying and at $.0035 cents WTVI.PK isn’t cheap, but curiosity.
Will curiosity kill the cat again?


The Google monster gobbles another insect company up!

Google Inc. (GOOG @ $466) as you should know put in a bid for $3.1 billion for Double Click which could help increase the companies growth and monster advertising machine. GOOG is recently priced way below its target of the $550 price range and its PEG score is trading about under 1.00 which most analyst would consider it a bargain stock. Last year GOOG’s earnings were great and the stock sky rocketed up 35 pts and within 4 days dropped almost 40 pts. What does this mean? Maybe much of the stock price was already amped up into earnings and the stock price did reflect the earnings data which made the stock hype immediately start selling off. GOOG is the #1 tech/internet stock for the past 3 years. Although I can currently see the price steadily moving up with a strong trend I also feel GOOG will be hit the hardest when the next fly-by-night tech/.com’s come again. It isn’t like GOOG isn’t worth $466 and it does have billions in cash so it isn’t going bankrupt any time soon. Google is also doing the right things as a growing company to keep market share, sustain growth, and be around a very long time. But when the market does turn (maybe this summer?) I think GOOG is going to be hit hard again down to the low $400’s to possible $350’s to shoot back up to over $500 when the real investors step in that will drive the price back up. Also recently Google.com is starting to create a more personalized look for users like Yahoo.com uses. In away I think this is a bad idea, but also it could help generate more revenue for the giant if yahoo.com users would switch entirely to google.com if google.com gave that personalized web-home experience.

Earnings this week have been good so far expecially with McDonalds (non-tech) MCD @ $48. I previous said around 5 months back that MCD was a buy @ $43. MCD has steadily moved up the charts and showing positive growth for the giant franchise real estate/fastfood company.

Earnings I’m anxious to hear about is GRMN, AAPL, GOOG, BA, NTRI, and RIMM recently we already know increased profits. Bad news for AAPL that again they are delaying their new software Leopard and iPhone. I already know of many people ready to buy the iPhone regardless of price young and old. It is going to be a success. I hope they fix ANY and ALL bugs with it before it becomes internationally distributed. I know a select amount of individuals that do have ongoing problems with their iPods crashing or freezing and for the most part Apple had worked to satisfy those customers head on. Another company to look at for is Sears Holding Co. (SHLD) for retail sales outlook. Luxury retailers have been doing well again this year too. Many economists say the market will be a volatile choppy one and so far the waves have been pretty large. Look at NYX with it trading over 100 then down to 80 then back to 100 again. I’d consider that a sweet trade if I’d only focused on it. My concentration has been rather off the past 6 months and I need to get back into just focusing on stocks I previous traded before that I know much more about.

So far this year I’ve definitely ventured off into the hard rocky dangerous path by choice. It has helped my increase my goals faster, but also has worsened my ethics and rules for proper trading to live a long traders life. I’m slowly crippling myself the way I am trading and if I don’t start really pushing healthier trading habits I will die.


Fridays always seem to be bearish. – Week summary

It seems to me Fridays are always bearish or at least a great percentage. Every call option I’ve ever bought seems to drop on Friday. I believe I was even hinted from my mentor that Fridays stocks seem to fall after a week of traded on weakness and tiredness in the market place. I expected the market to continue falling after a small rally buying session after Feb 27’s predicted sell off. Fed Bernanke keeps trying to make investors stay optimistic about the economy’s neutral position and still solid fundamentals, but investors seem pretty gloomy. I’m gloomy, but today reading some old materials on the stock market I realized something significant which is that we are in “warnings season” when profits are lowered and companies warn about lower earnings. So I should be embracing this not being gloomy. I’m trading the wrong positions currently and that is probably why my portfolio is taking a beating. I’ve been very bad is the past 15 days I planned to pay off my car I instead traded all my money again.
“All aboard I’m all in” – for some reason I think like this and its getting to risky for my financial goals and health status.

I just recently purchased my first customized 6’6″ Classic 1970’s Fish surfboard. I’m going to have an awesome graphics design on the board with ironically my golden stock rules I keep forgetting or ignorning on the front so they are looking right at me while waiting for waves, and on the back I’m going to have a rising sun picture (like Japan’s rising sun flag) with the artwork called “rising sun” which is a male with wings stretched out taking off for hope on top of the rising sun image. Next to the male (possibly with a cartoonish image of my face) will be a mean bull on the left and a scared bear on the right. Under the drawing it will say “bull vs bear”.
This will be my stock market surfboard to remind me everytime I go surfing that I need to follow these rules to control the bulls and bears to be a master of the market. This might sound kind of nerdy and not very surfing imagery like, but surfing is a great time for quietness and memorization. The more I read those rules sitting out in the ocean the more I should live by them. I will post a picture of my board when its done.

Right now the market is shakey. This big sell off should spark a upwards rally, but we could be in for an extended decline. I think Apple Inc. in May starting to sell iPhone units will be a big help in pushing tech stocks like Apple higher, including Sony’s PS3 being a hot product with blue ray, Research and Motion’s phones, and Nintendo’s Wii performing and selling so well.

Speaking of “blue ray” this is definitely something to lookout for. I’m going to start researching companying manufacturing it and selling it because it will be the new HD picture formating tool of the future. Instead of DVD players you’ll start seeing Blue Ray players to show true HD picture which is now needed if you want to watch true HD movies/shows.


AAPL, RIMM, and MA down, entire market down, dumb Feds and rate hikes.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) headed lower to $83.20 down 3% (-$2.91). Definitely a hit today with the entire market going down after Fed chairmain Bernanke said the U.S. growth has been too quick and a rate hike will happen. I was very wrong about AAPL and did not take in the fact that a big Fed decision was going to be made today. If I would of not have traded AAPL it would of prevented a big loss moved by the market after the rate hike decision. Investors not happy about this sold off stocks without any buyers their to get in on. Mastercard reported today (MA) and dropped 10% to $103 like its previous earnings even beating analyst expectations with investors worried about profit growth. Looking at the technical chart it looks like buyers were confidently getting back in at a lower price level the last hour to buy back the stock at the $100-103 range. I think its a buying opportunity now to with a pull back from $118, but with the current market conditions I’d wait to make sure and see a climbing pattern to show the stock is still bullish.

See MA’s 55 minute and daily chart below: (Click to enlarge)

MA 55 minute chart

MA daily stock chart

As for AAPL, if the entire market doesn’t rally next week I will be 100% wrong about it. It’s previous year during the time it made a strong downtrend and then was broken in Feb just like this year. The down trend has been broken and AAPL is due for at least a mini-rally. It seems CEO Steve Jobs head is getting a little to ballooned up with his iPhone product and iTunes music store dominating the digital music market. I read a bloggers comment about how CEO Steve Jobs would never release a product until 1 month before shipping to keep it secret and he broke that rule with the iPhone giving it 6 months until its release. Now other companies like Samsung are duplicating the phone look and must likely ship the same time giving more consumers a “choice”. So I think the blogger made a good point there where if its released a month before its shipped it doesn’t give huge companies time to make a simular product to compete with Apple Inc’s product. I guess we’ll see how things work out. I’ve been hearing a lot of positive talk about this iTV even though everyone that talks about it doesn’t even really know what it is or what it does. Interesting huh? From my knowledge it is basically a digital library to simplize it. You can put all your iTunes downloads on it connect to your Tv set to watch it. My questions is aren’t computer monitor screens just as good or even better than Tv screens these days? I think its taking a step back. I think Apple Inc. should of offered a big flat screen with the iTv built in or of made that a choice. It just seems like a lot of unnecessary electronics that will clutter your room to me. I like Apple but I think we should be kicking the Tv set out by now. I watch my cable on my lapton, project, or on my flat screen computer monitor. I think the Tv is bulky and out of the question of having.

Below is AAPL’s 3% sell off and most likely start to a bear downtrend:
(Click to enlarge)
APPL 55 MINUTE CHART

Another stock trading more volatile then AAPL great for the experienced option trader is Research In Motion (RIMM) which also fell 3% today in the tech sector. Most of it’s buying opportunities have been in the $122-124 price range before it shoots back up to the $130’s.

See below in RIMM’s daily chart: (Click to enlarge)

RIMM daily stock chart


Buying Apple Inc. (AAPL). Why I’m bullish for AAPL & WTVI

If you bought Apple Inc. (AAPL) today at $86 I’m 100% confident tomorrows high will at least be $1-2 pts higher and close positive. I’m also confident AAPL stock has reversed finally to the upside and big buyers have stepped in. This is probably a short-term correct meaning it might go up for 3-4 days, but that is enough to make some money. If AAPL stock hits $89-90 by Friday I’m right. If it doesn’t then the stock is heading farther down quicker.

Check out this chart I have of AAPL. This is why I think a definite reverse in price is about to happen: (click on picture to enlarge)

aapl chart

Recently I’ve aquired half million shares of WTVI.PK and it is up around 65% within the past 3 days (which means up $.002 cents!). I plan to keep the stock until I think its a lemon or it hits $1 which ever comes first. I’m considering buying another half million, but I want to bring up my account first, meet my goals, and then buy more. I’m really excited about the company because Bill Gates backs the techology mix with social networking which is always a plus and the site definitely has something new to offer any consumer that has a wi-fi device that wants entertainment for free. I feel www.wi-fitv.com will provide this and get better at what they want to offer the more popular the site and service to members it becomes just like utube.com and myspace.com

The stock is making great buying moves. Current volume is going up every day and all the diluted floating shares are being bought up and that’s what I like to see. The companies market capital is only worth right now probably around $200,000 dollars. This isn’t even a million dollar company. So if they aren’t able to get advertisers and sponsors within 6-12 months this company will be worth $0 most likely because of bankruptcy.

Here is the daily and weekly chart of WTVI.pk – Both trend charts are showing a reverse in the stock price going up. It is currently hitting the bollinger bands on the daily which could make it come down, but if the stock is bullish and investors are buying in before the announcement then it should break through the BB. (Click on the pictures to enlarge.)

wtvi stock chart

wtvi weekly chart

If you’d like me to research your stock and blog about it shoot me an e-mail. -FN


Lower forecasts, weak earnings, missed earnings it all works for me.

Lately the market has been in a slump and I plan on it to keep falling with continuing conservative estimates for Q2 earnings, weak earnings, missed earnings, and price wars for the chip technology sector. Bad results are still profitable for me and easier to spot out. My 90 APR 2007 Put options on AAPL are up $1.20 or around 15% percent. I bought them at $90.53 and the stock price of AAPL is currently $86.70. They were up as much as 30% today, but the current downtrend of the market, its negative tone on earnings, and increasing oil prices kept me in the option since it is going in my favor. I definitely want to sell out soon, but I can wait because AAPL is still due for a bigger drop in stock price, I think below $80. I also own 75 Feb 07 Put options and they are up 25% percent, but not worth as much. My 70/30% earnings report options play didn’t work as I assumed it would. I think the smarter way of going about earnings is seeing what happens the day after and buy calls/options upon the results. With stocks either your right or wrong about the direction. Once you know the direction and the general market tone and where it is going the smart thing to do is trade with the current direction.

You can view stock charts of current technology and oil stocks trends I did (Click here).

Currently I really like NUE for steel and OIH and COP for oil stocks to buy to go up now. I think these are going to be the best plays for profiting in 2007 for the first 8 months.

I think AAPL could have a growth spurt later in the year once the iPhone is being sold and see how consumers respond to it. I already know I’m pretty likely to buy one because I really do not like my RAZOR. I like Cingular, just not the phone.


AAPL Earnings – Whammy! Plus life on the boat…

Life has been somewhat groggy here on the boat. My super duper options strategy did not work on AAPL. The stock did pop up 4 pts in afters just to be sold off by insiders to open much lower creating a doji start (lower opening gap). Well you know I don’t care. Okay. I was wrong the stock price didn’t goto $105 or higher as I was wishing so screw it I’m playing Puts on AAPL as far as it will go. Last year it has records earnings too just to have the stock price drop from the $90’s to the $65’s. I told my mom the price was going to drop no matter how good the earnings were and I was right, but she and the stupid iPhone news convinced me other wise to play a small position of calls.

I played a too far out of the money play at Feb 125 calls worth $0 now and a smaller way out of the money Put position of Feb 75 Puts and both go down. I’ve been finding this pattern of after earnings both out of the money options go down. This makes NO sense. I’m sure there is some reasoning behind it, but it makes my super plan fail fail fail.

I saw the charts turning around 2pm EST for AAPL making a small bull attempt just to go further down. I bought in at around $90.50 and currently its $89. My option is in the money (yes for once in my life time) APR 90 Puts. If it does anything like last year and the years before that its going to fall hard for a couple of months the move back up with its new iPhone product if it sells well. I’m not upset over being wrong even though it was a real money play. I was so sure AAPL would either fall very very hard or jump very very high. It did go down 6% but I was expecting a bit more dramatic hit then that. I suppose in the next few days it will be down another 10-15% if I’m correct. The chart indicators show a Put play with an engulfing red candle and a lower opening gap doji star with a reversal down hammer. My Feb 75 Puts probably will become profitable if AAPL really falls within the month which could make me two over 100% plays for Feb 07 beating my monthly increase of trading cash goals and closer to my $1 million trade mark.

As for ship life my new working schedule has made me a bit groggy, but I’m starting to get use to it. I’m making a couple of new friends I hope and finishing my qualifications to advance in rank within the next 6 months for a modest pay increase to increase my savings per month.
We will soon hit our next port call. I hope I come back with surfing pictures to blog about.

later -fn


I call this the 50/50 Earnings Report Scenario

The past couple of days I’ve been trying to figure out how to make a safe small trade that could potentially increase my chances of making it to $1 million in my 10 months goal is what I call the 50/50 earnings report scenario. You take a very volatile stock and buy 50% Puts and 50% Calls way out of the money to earn well over 100% the day before earnings is annouced. If the stock pops very high or low based on a surprise beating wall street analysts or missing analyst estimates you can make money either way. Because 50% of your money will be worth $0, but the other even 50% of your money could double making the 2 trades together profitable.

Say you take Apple Computer Inc. which has had a great year and expected to beat earnings with major increasing sales with new iPod units and iTunes music download service. Let’s also not forgetting the growing market share they are taking in their thriving computers sales of their newer computers. Apple’s price has been up and down on positive and negative news. Its also possible the stock could tank even if the earnings are good, believe me I’ve seen it happen with GRMN.

This time I’m going to play it cool. I’m going to play this earnings game smarter. Since I have received a fat profit with the stock this month I am only going to take a small bit of the profits to go through earnings. So say if the new price targets on AAPL are $110-120 and the price of 1/12/07 is $94 and I expected it to mildy go up 5% that would be around +5.20pts, but I expect AAPL to jump with this bullish market at least 10% making the stock open around $105 at least. If that did happen my way out of the money CALLS would be well over 100% and I could sell out being in the trade less than 1 day. Same options for a PUT. Say AAPL misses or beats but tanks 5-10% down to $80-85 I could still come out a winner. No matter which was the stock moves fast I will be write. If this trade works I could practically use it on every stock that reports earnings.

The math behind it for you to understand is this: The 50/50% earnings report scenario.

If I buy $500 worth of calls for .15 = 30 contracts
I also buy $500 worth of puts for .20 = 25 contracts

AAPL reports earnings = The price jumps up or down 10%
With $500 into 2 trades one will be practically = $0
But the other will be worth at least $2,000-3,000 more.

Summary of the math:

You take your profiting trade minus your loosing -$500 trade = Up +$2000-2500.
I call this the 50/50% earnings scenario trade. Now, if the stock doesn’t move at all you can just sell out of both positions most likely for a even trade with minimal losses except commission costs.

On January 16 I will buy into my positions and on January 17 after Apple Computer reports earnings I will either be +2,000 to add to my goal or just broke even and sell out of my trades.
I really do not think breaking even will be it with all the enthusiatic investors behind AAPL.

cheers, FN


Apple Computer CEO Steve Jobs could make AAPL stock fall hard

Lately Apple Computer Inc. has been getting some great reviews on it’s new product line for 2007 secretly done by AAPL CEO Steve Jobs. I think even earnings this year with selling the smaller iPod Shuffle to the masses could be a hit and we already know iTunes has done superb selling downloads just another cash growth machine from Apple. What we also hear about over and over is the AAPL stock options probe on Apple itself and going after the CEO of the company Steve Jobs. If CEO Steve Jobs is asked to step down or leave this could be dangerous for the stock price. I could see it falling more than 10% in a day. Recently after the hype about the new products from the Mac Expo 2007 the stock has been slowly treading down which isn’t strange because the stock is up around 12%. Some profits will be take off the table. I think it will go higher into earnings. I think it will be a very volatile year for Apple.
If the iPhone does very well and is a hit it could be the biggest trend setter yet since the iPod started in 2000. If CEO Jobs has to leave it will damage and hurt investors, but only for the short-term as long as Apple sustains its growth and products sell and produce earnings beating Wall Street Analyst estimates. AAPL currently trades at $95.

A former real Wall Street analyst blogger I found did a great job commeting on his Coffee Brew for Friday Jan 12. I like what he has to say. He sounds very knowledgeable about the market.
I’d read some of his posts and I think he is also right about Computer sales for the Tech Sector about AMD. I think you could see some change later in 2007.


Apple Computer iPhone, AAPL option trade, Condo Investments

Apple Computer’s announcement of its new iPhone and iTv was no surprise as the stock dropped 3 pts right before CEO Steve Jobs came out with the iPhone around noon PST. As soon as it was shown investors bought in confidence AAPL stock and it rose up 8%. The following day buyers that did not buy the first day tried to get in on the action raising the price another 5%. This is when I had the decision to sell my AAPL JAN 07 100 Calls and get out +$2000 instead of being negative -$4300 just 3 days before!

I’m pretty impressed by the sleek look of the new iPhone and I’m even considering changing my Cingular RAZR for it if it works easy. I keep my cell phone on me all the time and have a nano iPod and I actually really want my iPod in my phone. I think the iPhone idea is brilliant and will be a profit machine for growth for 2007 AAPL balance sheet. The only shortfall to the iPhone is its small harddrive for space. Until a new iPhone comes out I might not get it because its small 4/8gig harddrive is just not enough for all my songs, video podcasts, and data to store on it. This could be the new wave of ultra-small computer devices. Yes, Palm has been out for a while but it was more of a mini-desk organizer then a phone or music player. I owned the sweet Palm phone (silver) back in 2000 for $400 so buying a $500 iPhone really isn’t that big of deal. I do not find price a problem here. Just harddrive space at the moment I think will upset new iPhone users like myself.

As for the stock play I did on AAPL this trade definitely wasn’t the worst trade I’ve ever done because my GRMN trade being +300% and not selling before earnings Nov 15, 2006 is definitely the worst trade. This will have to be my 2nd worst trade of 2006 just because the smart thing would of been to buy these option contracts just days before the Mac Expo. I should of sold out at a $500 loss earlier and bought back in at $.20-30 per contract and bought over 100 and made such a bigger % and income from the trade probably half of my USCG salary in less that 3 days! I am journaling this for next time. What I did do which is good trading but isn’t bad either since it helped me get out profitable was I bought in increments when the stock price went down so my ending cost basis for my options was $1.22 per option and I sold my options at $2.05 giving me almost a 100% profit for around 35 trading days or about a month. Again, bad trading. I’m sure their are some investors that are reading this that are thinking this is a fantastic gain in such a short time, but believe me this is really bad trading, although I sold before earnings and didn’t hold my options being greedy. Because of this reason I have already improved 100% personally and more disciplined.

I saw AAPL starting to hit a ceiling today and thought to myself I’d rather have money in the bank right now then be wrong about tomorrow. I sold before the option pricing starting to go down with the close of the day. In after hours Cisco came out with a big “I’m sueing Apple over iPhone name patent”. So my thinking of I could be wrong tomorrow was a smart move. AAPL stock is pretty bullish right now so hitting $110 or even $120 by earnings is possible, but its also possible it could fall hard right after earnings. For this reason, today, I am happy in Hawaii.

My next trade will most likely be FXI Puts with its strong new trend downward all charts are showing a downtrend and lots of profit taking is happening. I don’t care to be right I just want to perform in my trading for 2007. I’d rather be wrong and sell out early and keep my money.

As for my Mexico property investment the new terms are better on a condo I looked at while I was there even closer to the beach I am in the process of putting a purchase contract on for $560,000 Pesos or converted to USD $52,000 and I’d have to put around $5000 into renovations then rent it for 4-6 months a year to break even. This condo is less expensive than the smaller home I would have liked to buy, but now I am thinking this is the better rental income investment over time.

Another idea I had was build a decent size log cabin on some land in Virginia and rent it out as a hunters lodge during hunting season, ski resort people looking for a private place, weekend retreaters, and churches for retreats. Right now I don’t feel I could really do it well without help and none of my family is really interested at the moment so I will make this a project for later possibly.

As for beginning the new year of 2007 I’m pretty happy being sold out of all my options and feel I have a fresh start of trading wiser and more disciplined this year. For one thing I’m going to stop depositing money into my stock account to trade. I’m just going to build up my savings, something I’ve never really done before. I’ll probably use that money to pay off my car loan because that would free up $400 a month I could keep saving and not worry about that loan payment by the time I’m out of the USCG.

I hope this was helpful to any young or old investors out there. Lesson today is not to be greedy and sell when you are happy.

An article I liked on Apple Computer’s hype and glory for the secretcy of it’s products was done great by a blogger from the Utility Belt. Also here is an article on the growing middle class of Mexico starting a mortgage boom that will help build Mexico’s growing economy by BusinessWeek Online. A good article on the iPhone and how it will definitely change the computer-phone industry by theStreet.com did a great job here.


Apple Computer (AAPL) the good news and bad news…

As you all have heard if you read any financial online news Apple Computer’s commity board has cleared CEO Steve Jobs of all the options probes, which lifted the stock price up 5% Friday to around $85. My options will become unsellable soon if this coming week Wed through Friday of 2007 AAPL does not move back to the $90’s now with a big kick of momentum. I feel the better decision to invest in would of been FXI index fund now around $112 which would of been the easier more trustworthy trend to follow, but there are not woulds and coulds in investing. Once your order has been taken you are in. Yes I had the option to get out early loosing only a few hundred dollars, but my darn concious has not been disciplined yet. I just don’t want to loose and I am starting to think because I don’t want to loose I actually loose not only my money I save to invest, but also my gaining confidence that I can be a successful long-term trader in the stock market. Sometimes I feel like there is no hope in my trading because I don’t know how to say no to trades I want to get into. There is no “Happy in Seatle” ever. I just want more more more. I ended up adding to loosing trades turning them into bigger loosers and when I do get out profitably I’m not happy with my results even if I get a big gain because I did not trade correctly how I was taught. I don’t want to keep learning lessons in the market. I want to make solid outstanding trades. I just need to become that solid outstanding disciplined trader able to accept to be a looser and let the market win sometimes because I’m learning many times you might not be correct so you have to get out when you are wrong.

Apple Computer after releasing CEO Steve Jobs from the option probe looked like it could come around until it unleased a handful of plaintiff lawsuits against AAPL’s “itunes and ipod monopoly”. I’d really like to punch the company or person in the face that has these claims. You know Apple was a nobody company back in the 1970’s and nobody really believed in it. It started with just college kids liking to program and make a difference in the home computer world with little money. They didn’t start out thinking they were going to dominate the world with a huge monopoly on music downloads, computers for artist and movie makers, and iPod players that consumers just want so bad. I’m sure every company in the back of their heads and in their mission statements wants to be successful with no limits to profits. Sure there is a lot of marketing involved this is what most any successful company does – Find out what consumers want to buy and Apple made big bucks doing just this – Great Ads for iTunes and iPods.

Apple computers stock and computers were really only bought by schools through the 1980’s (I remember using them and learning how to type on them in Middle School), and not until the 1990’s they were highly loved by musicians and artists. Until CEO Steve Jobs came out with the iPod around 2000 Apple was a nobody in the computer business with such a small niche. Now they have a product everybody loves and did a great job with it’s sales force and upgraded their computers to compete with PC’sto be bought by their new customers wanting only Apple and you have the right to throw a lawsuit against them? I guess it is your right, but I’d like the right to knock you out. So stop bitching and come out with own great product that you’ve worked secretly hard on and sell it to the world.

I see AAPL moving up or staying at the same price until earnings and see it still dropping unless Apple Computer creates new history for itself. It currently has a high PEG score over 2 times which means it’s being sold, although its EPS and growth looks really good to keep the stock moving up over time if it can keep momentum with new computer sales growth is the real key to Apple’s long-term success with new products.

I’ve recently been reading Cramer’s book “Mad Money” the new one and will be doing a review on it soon.
Cheers -FN