Irrationally mad decision making to obtain the American Dream.

apple aapl stock

Apple (AAPL) does -17pts Wed – Fri – The Big Downtrend Continues even though all the Bulls want it to go up again.

So AAPL @ $445 was either going to move higher at $457 where I expected it to bounce back up with support but it fell more instead. If you look at the Weekly / Daily chart it’s 100% in a downtrend and the recent continued fall has only supported more of a fall which I think will be even harder possibly going under $400. Things that could change this? Some really new products. Better growth and lower margins in April earnings. Sometimes no matter what a stock just falls because the big traders are making lots of money on the move so until they want it to change direction it will continue its trend. So remember “The trend is your friend”. All the charts are beginning to cross-over with big red candles but from experience this is a choppy time. One day it looks like a fat put option the next day it looks like  just a pull-back and continuing uptrend (see NSC). Seems like tech will continue up (besides AAPL which is like the ugly ducking at the moment) however housing/materials/energy seem* to be changing direction which could be great shorting trades but I’m just going to keep my eye on them at the moment and if and when it feels right I’ll dive in head first.

Downtrend charts (AAPL, TOL, EOG) – Transitioning (NSC) – Uptrend still (GOOG)

 

 


AAPL, GOOG, & PCLN continue fall from peak after subtle expected pop.

So in my two earlier posts I first analyzed and came to a long waited gut conclusion with these weekly faster and bigger moves that the top peaks of a few fat stocks looked like they were ready to sell off. Particularly Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), and Priceline (PCLN). I predicted a pop after the quick fall on Monday for all three stocks to having a buying opportunity especially on AAPL Tuesday. On Tuesday and Wednesday the stocks popped up. Then I planned on Thursday into Friday, if I was correct about the possible new downtrend starting to begin, to show after the initial quick trade on Tuesday. Today, all three stocks got hammered except GOOG.

However, with GOOG I find an exception because it hasn’t moved back up as quickly like AAPL and PCLN. GOOG seems like it is a turtle slowly going down a hill whereas AAPL and PCLN are like college frat kids jumping off into deep blue lagoon abysses. 

After Wednesday I initially thought GOOG out of the three would have been the best practice trade to follow in and trade on real money, but after two seeing all three continue to fall I’d say it’s safe that all three are in for a short-term stock price correction.

Now on Friday even the MSFT did well in earnings I don’t think it’s going to affect my stocks. All three stocks will likely fall another 10 points into next monday.

Currently here are the 3 practice put options I have in play:
(bought on close of the 16th – the better trade would have been the close on the 18th)

AAPL 555 MAY PUT @ $20.44 / currently at $16.55

GOOG 610 MAY PUT @ $19.40 / currently at $19.50 (still likely the weakest and best put play)

PCLN 655 MAY PUT @ $20.50 / currently at $12.17

And I’m going to add an QQQ NASDAQ index put option due to how heavily these 3 stocks can weight on the QQQ index because it is ALSO at it’s peak high which has been squatting at the price of $65-67.

Buy QQQ 66 MAY PUT @ $1.42 (close of 4/19/12). QQQ’s are slow but likely the least amount risk out of these 3 larger options as seen just by the movement of the options except for Google because it hasn’t moved much only slowly falling. However, if GOOG continues to drift downwards it could have a sudden couple of big falls.


Hit my first stock target price prediction on Southwestern Energy Company (SWN) @ $41

SWN yesterday hit $41 and just today pulled back as typical, but definitely on a moving force. I believe the last time I spoke last week it was over $35.  What a great call option play, but I’ll have MY day and as long as I keep up with my numbers I should be more ready this fall.  It might just work out for me this time with the market poised to turn harder up with all of Fed. Bernanke’s talkin-the-talk, rumors being spread, some mediocre better numbers on economic reports, and stocks finally moving back up leaving their steeply discounted prices.  It bothers me a bit.  I admit it, I want to trade so bad.  I have to resist the powers and keep my promise to myself….man these months discipling myself not to trade have been hard.  I get these voices saying, “come on this one will work, you’ve been waiting for it, it will only be one trade…” I have to resist the evil within.  I’m sure it means fun and good intentions in it’s own evil mysterious universal ways but I need to stick to my big guns and keep them strapped in just a bit longer.

There will ALWAYs be trades in the future, big moves, small moves, and no moves.  Everyday the stock market goes up and down, sidways, and life goes on.  Today I’m a trader, tomorrow, and for the rest of my life.

I WILL MAKE LARGE PROFITS OFF YOU SWN, AAPL, NUE, GOOG, SPWR, FSLR, GME, and housing stocks your time is near!  You better be afraid market makers of this big Clint Eastword city slicker trader!  Be very afraid I will come back the Green Giant!

Other news on stocks – General Motors (GM) 1:100 reverse stock split.  What a joke.  NOW THATS A PUT OPTION PLAY!  This stock when it goes from $2 to $200 (your money cut in half) will start selling like girl scout cookies.  Oh, the put option on that baby will be one fat profit play mark my words.  ill do an update on it a few weeks after its split.  reverse stock splits are the worse.


HOKU Scientifc holds at $11.56 & Apple AAPL

So HOKU stock has been supporting well at the $11.50 level. I’m curious if stocks will pop high after the New Year. HOKU’s recent move has created a second large white engulfing bullish candle for the past week when it fell. I expect AAPL @ $199 to really move between the Mac expo and earnings. If I’m smart as soon as I’m sold out I will buy next months options for AAPL probably $20 dollars out of the money.

I’m currently working on transferring all my utilities over, paying off any outstanding balances, and looking towards the future of my enterprise.

I’m currently in Juneau, Alaska for my port call. Its extremely cold and pretty. I did some crazy binge drinking my first night meeting some old friends that live here. It was great, but Tequila can really wake you up in a dangerous panicky sweat in the morning. I had a great nap after passing out again on the bed at my friends house. We rocked out and made some songs too. He’s probably one of the most funniest guys I know. We ate at some great gourme pizza places, russian meat dumplings, and had tasty crisp Alaskan local beer amber, IPA, and bocker dark (like tar almost it tasted like, yummy).

-fn