Pakistani President being assassinated with riots afterwards. I’m not so surprised. Do even Americans care? Do we? Is it just another scare tactic? Another cover-ups for something else? I don’t know who to trust these days, particular not the news. It definitely made a hit on our financial markets with our major averages down -1% today.
The only stock holding up in the positive was Apple Inc (AAPL @ $202). Impressive. Its new blockbuster deal with Fox to sell more selection of movies on its iTunes is really going to boost the stock price up into the Mac Expo Jan 14th then earnings I believe Jan 18th. My price target I think it will hit is at least $220. Up another 10%. I think we could see $300 or a big stock split by next year.
Another wild stock is HOKU Scientific (HOKU @ $11.81). Currently down around -7%, but it had a major run up of +20% so I’d expect some pull back. It made another BIG white candle showing there is major support and it is ready to move higher then $15 in my opinion and what I see on the charts. If it holds above $11.50 today I think we will see it hitting $15 first week of January 2008 and I will be sold out of my Jan 15 Call options up around +200% or more. I’ve been trading HOKU since around $9 then to $12 sold, then bought at $10.58 and waiting for it to move higher with my options to sell at a good price.
Trailer park news is in. The previous owner who sold it to me first offered me $3000 to buy it back. I Negotiated $7000 then we met at $5000. So I did it. Okay it didn’t work out. I probably lost around $15000 on the deal. What’s new? Well nothing new besides no girlfriends, no luxuries, no nice bachelor pad, or paid off debt to pursue my business ventures until I get one that sticks and works well. Some people might feel irritated or mad about this, I just gulp it down, and thank God already for when something really does happen for since I know it will. Just when? I’ve been reading the Bible lately. I don’t know if this has affected the owner actually offering me money to buy it back or not. In a weird way I feel I lucked out not just offering it back to him to get rid of the ongoing loss. This is the way I look at this: I’ve owned the park for around 6 months and made a total of $1500, lost a total of around $22000 (this includes initial down payment of $10,000 + $4200 worth of mortgage payments + $7000 worth of repairs and renovations). I’m only getting +$5000 back, but if I hold onto it for another 6 months with the little tenants I have an keep incurring bills I will actually lose another $6-7000. So in retrospective if I sell it back to him now and accept +$5000 I’d actually be gaining really +$12000 back. I look at this as a losing stock. I can either cut my losses now while I can see the picture and its not earning me any money and continually since I’m not there I have no control over getting the units rented or I can keep it and continually lose more and more money that I could of applied to pay off existing debt. I think my biggest problem here was that they were small trailers instead of single or double wides. About 1 month after I bought the park it hit me hard. Then again, with my risky investment ideas, I take full responsibility for buying the park without seeing it, without inspecting the trailers, and over valuating it. I guess I learned another hard lesson in my seventh year of continual business losses.
So now that the park is done for and I can move on with my life I plan to take any money I have left and apply to my car loan and pay it off first. Student loans second, and then put the rest in a savings account. If I do buy another piece of real estate it will strictly be a single family home or duplex. I found that even though buying a mobile home park can be very profit worthy, unless I am there to maintain it, advertise it, and do most of the repairs it will become more of a burden then improvement in my business ventures. I suppose I learn best by doing. Most people teach or talk about doing something their entire life, but never do it. I actually do it. So I guess I can expect more hardships and wise lessons.
After looking at Qcharts and seeing Dicks Sporting Goods stock emerging a new uptrend with its profitable earnings statement and raising its 2007 outlook I had to post the chart for anyone interested to see – what I see. What I see is on the weekly major trend chart DKS has been totally sold off with the market after its 2:1 stock split. Now at $30.54 it is showing bottom curves going up on the MACD, StockRSI, and Directional movement. So basically it is at the bottom of the trend starting to move up. The price has fallen around 10pts since the 2:1 stock split. The peg is at around 1.20. I would practice on 2008 DKS JAN 30 CALLS @ $30.54.
This looks like a super buy in my opinion.
Check out the full weekly trend chart with my analysis:
(Click on picture to show full size)
Well…Here I am starting at $1000 again. The only stock that didn’t go down on me was my spicy pickle franchising stock. It’s down -$200, but nothing compared to my Nov MSFT and AAPL out of the money options. I was totally whiped out and I mean clean. Oh well. It is just money right? I definitely should of been watching the Nas and Djia which I didn’t realize were trending down until my older sister told me why she thought the market was going down. It came to me so unexpected, but I guess I should of expected the exception happening. I’ve been heavily deep into watching technology industry charts that this sudden crash just got me. I’ve already taken $1000 to $10,000 many times so I’m pretty confident I can do it again with the market falling so hard playing some Puts and then waiting for it to stop and play call options on AAPL and RIMM all the way back up to their 52 week high’s. Apple (AAPL currently at $156!) is still a great company with everything going for it. New awesome sleek products going into international markets and selling many iPhones its new product everyone wants. Oh, and did I say christmas and iPods? I have good reason for it to go back up in price after tech has been sold off but it will be a little while before that happens. I find analyst are suddenly bearish on Google (GOOG @ $642!). Why? This stock is major growth power and low peg of 1.30. If GOOG drops to the $600’s which it probably will with a PEG near 1.00 that stock will become a major buying opportunity. It is just too bad options cost so dang much. I probably could only afford way out of the money for $1000. I’m still rooting on Apple.
So because of this disaster. I’ve lost my total account basically around $26,000 within 1 week when stocks started to fall after dumb Cisco’s report (CSCO). I definitely should of just took out my winnings and paid off some crap or bought another house. I guess I keep learning the hard way. It isn’t easy being so risky sometimes. I will not be able to buy off my note for $35,000.
A person just gave me another offer of $105,000 for my single family home so I’m going to take it. That will give me a $35,000 profit after owning it/renting it out for almost 3 years. So this will go as my down payment through a 1031 tax exchange for the bigger mobile home park for $190,000. I ending mortgage was around $58,000 so after all the costs I should have at least I hope $40,000 applied to the commercial mortgage. I could also of refinanced my current mortgage, kept the incoming rent of $725/month, and took out an equity loan of around $50,000 for the down payment on another 20-30 year note. This was also an option, but I figured if I only have to worry about 1 payment at a time this is better even though my currenter is pretty good about making all her payments. So now I will have to mobile home park mortgages. My first park in Savannah is getting there. We are finally getting some better renters and hopefully I will get it fully rented earning around $2000/month which is my goal. As for the second park my goal is to keep the gross at around $4500. After all bills I want to be earning at least a net profit of $24,000 year. So no matter what I’ll have a decent income even if I have not made consistant money in the stock market. I think my goal now is to just pay off my real estate so the cashflow will get higher.
As for the stock market. Well I’m all in with $1000 as soon as I find the right play.
Last week was an excellent week. My art was together doing its thing. The day I told myself I would sell out my profit went up to + $20,000, but I was at a major disadvantage because I had no phone to call my broker nor internet to sell out. I finally did get to sell out of my Nov and Oct 07 670 call options both well over 100% ROI in less than 5 days market days. I told myself I’d sit back now before jumping into a new trade. I might take a tiny bit of my profits such as $500 to go through GOOG earnings on Oct 18, 2007. The past 2 years GOOG jumped around $30 if it reported good results so if it was another good year my options should sell out the day of earnings profitably.
My eyes are back on Apple Inc. (AAPL @ $167). I think it has finally maken up its mind to start “moving” again. It is definitely capitalizing in on the iPhone and its monopoly. I am seeing more and more iPhones in peoples hands and personally I want one too! I currently have a Nano iPod and enjoy it very much without any problems. Earnings should be stellar with Apple also taking over the computer market currently staking a 25% stake in the share of all computers sold. Apple is hot right now. I’d like to be options and see it go to $200 price target. This may happen at its next expo in January of 2008.
Lastly the only other company I’m interested in is Sears Holding Company (SHLD @ $142) the retail sales reports scared the stock some, but many factors are coming into play to force the stock up going into major retail selling season. Historically on charts it doesn’t move much after mid-November it looks so I don’t know how much a play SHLD will be, but I will watch it for a trade.
The lady I’ve been interested in is awesome, but I don’t think she is interested in me. Maybe the friend deal? Lame. I got to dance with her at Octoberfest here in Honolulu. I had a blast and wish I could do more with her. I did send her flowers and she loved them for sure. I guess only time will tell if I have a fighting chance at her heart.
As for my trailor park my new manager is doing a great job and I plan to buy some new trailers on the lots to rent out more. The second park is still waiting for appraisals and contracts to be done. I bought a residential lot near Austin, TX for $1000. Its right in a major new and upcoming community with tons of golf courses. If I do retire is that what retired people do? Play golf all the time?
After watching Michael Moore’s “Sicko” I think I’m going to also buy land in Canada, France, and Cuba since the healthcare seems to be great and Cuba buying up Peso’s could be a great investment long-term.
Recently I’ve just started a fasttrack college course for an upper level Human Resources class. HR is much harder then I expected. I thought it would be cake! I give HR people much more credit now having to understand all the laws, rules, and regulations on hiring and planning your workforce. Being an HR takes brains I do not have to spare.
For stocks AAPL @ $138 has just been waiting for something to make it move. The news of its 1 millionth iPhone sale is good news to my options which are now in the negative again since I did not sell them when God gave me the choice to up a couple grand. I’m going to stick to my guns about AAPL stock moving much higher. I have to admit the $10 g’s I put into the options can not lose since that money is needed for another mobile home park I’m interested in buying. AAPL currently has a strong upward trend and I count on it to move much higher into Oct if more, many more, iPhones are sold. It’s a hot product and with the price reduction it should sell much more because a new “i” trend product. I’d like to make $20 g’s on AAPL options move the initial $10 g’s out into my escrow for my down payment and use the profits to buy more options. Another stock moving right along which has 100% broken it’s downward trend is SWN. SWN @ $42 now is steadily moving up with new $80 oil highs. Historically both stocks AAPL and SWN and NTRI have moved up end of August into October.
Currently I’m in “C” school for my military rate. It’s awesome. I’d really like to live the college dorm life even in my 30’s. Good food, exercise, computers labs, and young beautiful women. It doesn’t get much better then this. I feel so relaxed and no stress bothering me except getting business deals completed and selling out of stocks profitably.
So far I was wrong about SWN options since I bought them way way too early in Aug and now in Sept they will expire when the stock is just started to move up the past 6 days.
My NYX options that end is Sept have no chance since the stock is so hated. NYX should be a powerhouse and maybe one day it will be trading very high, but for now it doesn’t move past the $80’s.
I’m keeping an eye on NTRI which has moved down to $48 and now strong up into the $55’s. RIG @ $105 is still in the .31 PEG. Unbelieveable if you ask me.
Apple Inc. (AAPL) just recently took a big pull back at $126. I’d load up on shares if I wasn’t broke! hahahaha. Seriosly! Okay I’m not actually broke, but I definitely feel like I’m spent out to the max. For anyone interested in getting a bargain AAPL at $126 currently is because Apple Inc. is a great company that will keep earning profits even if the financial markets have a melt down because of its trendy very wanted products. AAPL current growth trends are off the charts by out selling the entire PC industry with its sleek charming Mac computer sales. All those iPods are finally paying off because those customers are switching to Macs. The iPhone will just be another diamond ring paying off big once it picks up and it will. Apple’s advertising on Tv works. The iPhone is awesome. Apple Inc. keeps turning heads with every new and old product they created improving everything about it, and Apple fans are great influence of more products being sold with mega word of mouth.
Even though currently on a 1 and 5 day chart AAPL looks glim and very bullish I expect bullish up ticks tomorrow or Monday back to the $135. IF AAPL continues to fall with the market (since the market IS falling) then better for me when I will have some capital saved up to buy it when it does start moving up again. I thought AAPL’s flame was over, but with new affordable Mac’s and the creation of the iPhone we could have another 2-5 years of upward growth for AAPL stock. This year I predict it to go well over $200 a share with increasing market share in the phone market and computer market. That currently would be a +$74 profit per share or around a 7000% profit on any option you buy now good until 2009.
Well today I just went over 20,000 hits on my blog. Not much compared to most famous and more interesting blogs, but still remarkable. I’d like to make my blog over 100,000 hits within another year. I’m coming to the conclusion that I just need more blogable fun stuff so readers will come back.
As for my saturday morning date she was a no show text messaging me she would be too tired with no possible message of trying to go out to eat again =C so I guess I’m off to finding another lucky woman. You can not imagine how psyched out I was about getting this date. I was pretty bummed out so I almost slept the entire day. Positive thing is I got with my music partner and finished some songs we were working on. I’m hoping they will be good enough to perform once we get them down and shoot some video for backdrops.
Stocks have been high flyin. My instincts keep telling me these expensive stocks are going to fall hard during the summer, but for many stocks their PE and PEG are very close to their value. Some stocks Forward earnings are rediculous, but for most brand name stocks with great products they are priced right and should move higher. I feel we are going into antoher big uptrend market. If you look at most solid growth stocks all trends are gradually moving up and unless something chaotic happens in America the market should keep following up this year.
NTRI is still at a PEG of around .82 at $72. AAPL is only around 1.21 at $137.
It seems many traders are long on HOKU currently at $14. If HOKU doesn’t starting building its parts soon the stock might lose steam. If more contracts keep coming HOKU should realistically push over $20 which is why I’m long in my call options for JAN 08. I’m up $2000 on my $900 investment so I’m more then likely going to be selling my call options on the next jump, wait for it to fall some, then move back in again. Some other stocks to pay attention to is NSC @ $55 with 1 PEG and 15x P/E, PDE @ $39 with .39 PEG and 13x P/E, CAT @ $85 1.17 PEG and 14x P/E
2007 Stocks picks were easy to pick out at least from charts. 2006 stock picking was difficult because many of the stocks I was watching at the time traded very choppy and with the drop in May 06 to Aug 06 it caught many investors off guard. You could of threw a dart at any stock in Aug 06 and would of received excellent profitable returns on it. Last year this time Google flew to a new high then tanked. The second half of 2006 market has been very bullish that thinking the bears are hiding around the corner isn’t a possibility, but they are! At least I think so. I think some older stocks like Amazon.com are going to fly higher again while stocks that have been in the spotlight for a long time like Google.com, Sears Holding Co., and Apple Computers are going to fall the hardest at the top of their game. This is option investing so this is why I am interested in stocks that could fall hard meaning big profits and also pick stocks that I think will also go up in price.
[For my own practicing I’d buy these Call/Put options today at the current stock price as if I was for real. I will go over my top picks 6 months and 1 year after today to see if I was right about the direction of the stock or until I am happy with my profits. These Calls/Puts will be used on my 2007 best stock picks for trading options. (To make it easy I will buy 10 contracts (1000 shares) for each Call and Put) I may be incorrect during the short-term on these fluctuating stocks, but for the long-term before the end of 2007 I predict the following most profitable.]
2007 Top stock picks for Call Option Trades: (Meaning I believe these stocks will trade higher)
iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI @ $107.65) 1/3/07 hit $118 +10pts
FXI ETF Fund has been extremely strong in strength closely following our market trends but includes over 90 companies held in China that are growing with China’s economy. Big uptrend solid on all charts. Plus everyone knows how fast China is growing and with this ETF you own the companies that are receiving the profits. Possible dips but strong on uptrend.
Amazon.com (AMZN @ $39.80) Would sell. Weak around $38 1/12/07
I predict Amazon.com Co. to head north to $60 or close to this price level because solid earnings, increased profitability and revenue, and buyers are finally interested in the stock again. Yearly trends are forming into an upward trend. Two upward peaks have already happened. Amazon.com is a great place to buy theses off of. It has everything and consumers come back. If you look back at strong sales growth in AMZN when it does well the stock jumps and heads higher for months until the profit taking begins. AMZN is undervalued under $40.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG @ $56.25) 1/12/07 hit $58.20 +2pts
CMG is a new company and does simular family-like resturant but hip like Apple Bee’s and TGI Friday’s. Delicious food turning into a delicious stock investors are eating up. Although I feel $56 is actually high, CMG is setup to go higher and has a strong IPO trend. I see CMG moving to over $60.
Research in Motion (RIMM @ $127.62) 1/8/07 hit $142 +15pts
RIMM has been having an outstanding year with AAPL and technology sector. Robust profits and keeping market share. It has been pulling back, but trends have not been broken. I still am confident RIMM will hit back up to $140 then to $160 before it either has a stocksplit or falls from an “okay” quarter.
2007 Top stock picks for Put Option Trades: (Meaning I believe these stocks will trade lower)
Google.com (GOOG @ $458.00) Wrong about GOOG. At $455 it bottomed out. 1/12/06 hit $505 and rising. Buy with current uptrend going into earnings.
Google.com may goto $600, but indicators are showing it will go below $400 price level first. Google is loosing its fame and fans and the stock is being sold off.
Sears Holding Co. (SHLD @ $166.63) Also wrong about SHLD 1/8/07 bottomed at $165 now hit new year high 1/12/07 at $177 +10pts up and rising with strong retail sales. Buy going into earnings.
Chart indicators show a “Black Cloud” hovering on the top showing weakness in buying. Could be a large move downward into the $130’s.
Apple Computer (AAPL @ $81.51) Half correct so far about rising to fame with the Mac Expo going as high as $97 1/10/07 +16pts wait to see after earnings and what happens to CEO Jobs for options probe.
Apple Computer has shown the most evidence after earnings in January to come down. I think this year for Q1 Apple will have a great year, but investors will be selling while they are having a great year. Although I think short term into earnings Apple should perform well back into the 90’s, which hasn’t happened yet -10pts within the past 2 weeks I believe AAPL will have a rise to fame then crash and burn to around $65 support price in Feb-Mar 2007. Yearly charts are lined up to go down hard, but up short term on oversold stock. For the most part it seems most stocks are lined to sell off in 2007.
2007 Wild Cards – The Steel and Oil Industry could go either way. I predict the following.
OIH Oil Holdings (OIH @ $140.00) 1/11/06 hit $126 low +14pts on a PUT play, right, but maybe bottoming out to go higher with low $51BBL oil could rebound. I’d buy Puts at the moment and once the price lands around $120-130 I’d rebuy Calls. Charts currently show selling off. But big trend shows oil could be getting a lot more expensive very soon.
Nucor Corp. (NUE @ $55.54) 1/12/06 hit $56. Seems bottomed out and cratering to the upside. Earnings Jan 24. Never went lower then $54. I’d buy Puts at the moment and once the price hits $45 rebuy Calls. Downtrend currently, but long term steel could get more expensive very soon.