Irrationally mad decision making to obtain the American Dream.

2007 option picks

Trailer parks, stocks (HOKU scientific), and assasinations

Pakistani President being assassinated with riots afterwards. I’m not so surprised. Do even Americans care? Do we? Is it just another scare tactic? Another cover-ups for something else? I don’t know who to trust these days, particular not the news. It definitely made a hit on our financial markets with our major averages down -1% today.

The only stock holding up in the positive was Apple Inc (AAPL @ $202). Impressive. Its new blockbuster deal with Fox to sell more selection of movies on its iTunes is really going to boost the stock price up into the Mac Expo Jan 14th then earnings I believe Jan 18th. My price target I think it will hit is at least $220. Up another 10%. I think we could see $300 or a big stock split by next year.

Another wild stock is HOKU Scientific (HOKU @ $11.81). Currently down around -7%, but it had a major run up of +20% so I’d expect some pull back. It made another BIG white candle showing there is major support and it is ready to move higher then $15 in my opinion and what I see on the charts. If it holds above $11.50 today I think we will see it hitting $15 first week of January 2008 and I will be sold out of my Jan 15 Call options up around +200% or more. I’ve been trading HOKU since around $9 then to $12 sold, then bought at $10.58 and waiting for it to move higher with my options to sell at a good price.

Trailer park news is in. The previous owner who sold it to me first offered me $3000 to buy it back. I Negotiated $7000 then we met at $5000. So I did it. Okay it didn’t work out. I probably lost around $15000 on the deal. What’s new? Well nothing new besides no girlfriends, no luxuries, no nice bachelor pad, or paid off debt to pursue my business ventures until I get one that sticks and works well. Some people might feel irritated or mad about this, I just gulp it down, and thank God already for when something really does happen for since I know it will. Just when? I’ve been reading the Bible lately. I don’t know if this has affected the owner actually offering me money to buy it back or not. In a weird way I feel I lucked out not just offering it back to him to get rid of the ongoing loss. This is the way I look at this: I’ve owned the park for around 6 months and made a total of $1500, lost a total of around $22000 (this includes initial down payment of $10,000 + $4200 worth of mortgage payments + $7000 worth of repairs and renovations). I’m only getting +$5000 back, but if I hold onto it for another 6 months with the little tenants I have an keep incurring bills I will actually lose another $6-7000. So in retrospective if I sell it back to him now and accept +$5000 I’d actually be gaining really +$12000 back. I look at this as a losing stock. I can either cut my losses now while I can see the picture and its not earning me any money and continually since I’m not there I have no control over getting the units rented or I can keep it and continually lose more and more money that I could of applied to pay off existing debt. I think my biggest problem here was that they were small trailers instead of single or double wides. About 1 month after I bought the park it hit me hard. Then again, with my risky investment ideas, I take full responsibility for buying the park without seeing it, without inspecting the trailers, and over valuating it. I guess I learned another hard lesson in my seventh year of continual business losses.

So now that the park is done for and I can move on with my life I plan to take any money I have left and apply to my car loan and pay it off first. Student loans second, and then put the rest in a savings account. If I do buy another piece of real estate it will strictly be a single family home or duplex. I found that even though buying a mobile home park can be very profit worthy, unless I am there to maintain it, advertise it, and do most of the repairs it will become more of a burden then improvement in my business ventures. I suppose I learn best by doing. Most people teach or talk about doing something their entire life, but never do it. I actually do it. So I guess I can expect more hardships and wise lessons.

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I couldn’t be 100% more wrong. Wishy-washy indecisiveness with markets

So all my short term plays yesterday would of failed today, 100% of them. Stocks have been going up and down each day as if each day is bearish or bullish day. What you think is going to happen next is probably the complete opposite.

Lets looks at Citigroup (C @ $31.32). The entire day the major headline was “Investment group buys 5% stake in Citigroup” basically optimistic positive news article thinking there must be a gem hidden in financials since this investment group is buying them even though again all these banks have billion dollar losses! Although Citigroup really failed to move everything else sure did. I can’t express how I feel about this volatility. If I was sitting at my computer all day and was willing to trade intraday I might really dig it, but when you are trying to trade short term weekly trades this jumpyness hurts. All of my stock market muscles are being broken, pulled, and weakened. I’ve yet to have a come back, make some touch downs, and get back into the game healthy. I’m hurt and probably will be on the stock market sidelines for a very long time. My account now says a balance of $300. “Wow”. Well that’s life for yah, well for me at least.

I’m going to read my bible tonight. I’m going to read it until I read myself to sleep. I’m not much of a bible reader, but I need to start learning better discipline then what I’ve been acting on lately. I know I’m putting what talent I do have trading stocks to the trashcan and if I keep it up I may never trade again because I won’t feel confident enough with so much regret.

Amazingly enough from what I was taught at the end of November stocks are suppose to have a run and move up. So maybe even with all this downside this is that run during the last week of Nov. and I’m playing Puts instead of Calls because I’m so confused. If you aren’t confused and you are making 100% profitable trades then I’d sure likely to know what you are doing.

Now as for practice trading goes I’ve actually have done pretty well for a large majority of my trades on paper. It just seems when I do it with real money I get greedy and then I get slaughtered. Seems like the past four days stocks have trades higher at least for technology. As for financials stocks of fallin except for today. When will all these billion dollar losses change the market? Are all the falling stock prices already priced into the billion lossed? Hmmm….


Choppy fall markets continue with late day sell offs and rollercoasters!

So I’m in San Diego, CA on my north patrol portal. This is my first of many I suppose if our boat keeps working. The stock market has been ruff as usually simular to Alaska waters. I uploaded many technical analysis on stocks charts so be sure to see them (flickr pics on right side).

So I’m thinking after looking at many charts that the markets trend is still going down.

My practice option trading would go something like this: [short term plays]

BUYING CALLS on:
Southwestern Energy Company (SWN @ $49) – hitting bottom BB’s with strong trend up with raising oil prices increasing more popularity for energy to increase.
GameStop Co. (GME @ $51) – following strong uptrend and has been sold off even though it is the number one electronics game retailer. Every kid, teenager, and dad goes to this store to buy new and used games. It’s hot, and going into christmas its sales should increasingly rise.

BUYING PUTS on:
Apple Inc. (AAPL @ $172) – Hot product, high price, but currently tech and the entire market makes this stock so vulnerable to any move and I think the next move will be down.
Sears Holding Co. (SHLD @ $107) – Super company, lowering peg, but it seems retail just isn’t the industry to be buying in at the moment. Big downtrends and probably will see lower prices before buying happens.
Macy’s (M @ $28) – Again. Mega store everyone knows, but not in the buying club at the moment. Is anything? Low peg, lots of value, but no buying into it.
Goldman Sachs (GS @ $207) – This financial stock even though has losses is one of the better value you ones that won’t be held down for too long. Low peg of .70, low PE, but the banking stocks are just in crutches. The only banking stock I think should outperform all the others besides losses is Bearsterns (BSC @ $91) because its book/price is $86. I think it will keep bouncing off this support price. Peg currently at 1.06. I think this is the best play if buying CALLS. BSC will be the first to back to its highs, at least I think.
Citigroup (C @ $31) – This stock is going to its grave in my opinion. Mega huge banking system that I feel hasn’t got credit for the billions it has lost yet. But nothing can beat Country Wide financial (CFC @ $8) – This thing is going to $1 in my opinion. Mega PUT stock. You could probably get rich playing PUTS on it if you were smart and had money left to trade.
Google (GOOG @ $666) – Note the price! Scary huh? Stock charts show GOOG flipping over and about to be sold, at least short term. Peg is 1.26 not bad for a $600 stock which really says something, its going higher!
Nutri Systems Inc (NTRI @ $25) – This stock just has big pops (big white canldes) and then tanks. Sell offs. Funny thing is that its peg is like only .36 or something right now. IF IF IF it proves still to have good growth next quarter this stock is going to jump probably 30-50% in one day. Sounds crazy, but I could see it happening being sold off like an ugly stock now, but it is also getting all these lawsuit cases which probably isn’t helping publicity to want to buy it either.
Mastercard (MA @ $181) – Hot stock, super product. They basically just make millions a day off dumb consumers spending credit cards and never paying them off. I’m really not sorry if you are one of them. You have a choice, which is why this stock is going higher, but in the mean time it looks like it is being sold off some.
Ocean Outrigger (RIG @ $129) – RIG looks ready to fall some. Major growth and long-term CALL play in my opinion with rising oil prices.
Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS @ $30) – recent +7% just went to 0%. Falling charts makes this a short-term PUT play. Lots of Tv advertising you should be noticing especially on ESPN. They want to be a number one sports retailer and they are doing the right things to get there and stay there for a while.
China International Index Fund (FXI @ $168) – This stock has been falling and will continue to with the markets/asia markets. Charts show more selling coming.


Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS @ $32) up 7% since my last post.

Dicks Sporting Goods stores (DKS @ $32) stock price is up 7% from after I reported on its earnings. The sporting goods retail stock has been slipping with all the other major giant retailers such as Sears Holding (SHLD @ $112) and Macy’s (M @ $30). Since earnings it has risen about $2 after being upgraded the second day after earnings by Citigroup (C @ $31). Practicing the play on options/real trade you would of made a 75% ROI on JAN 30 CALLS for DKS. Bought around $2 and sold around $3.50. Of course you would of traded this if you had your head screwed on straight and were not in demolishing belittling DEC 30 PUTS for Apple Inc. (AAPL @ $171.50) up probably 6 pts from where I bought the PUTS which are going to $0. Yes – yes – yes the likely hood that I could of took a small loss, well big to most people, at -$300 on a $1000 trade (-30%). I’m currently at a value of $250 for my 10 contracts. I think Apple is a hot company, but I was 100% sure this second run one the last until the New Year. I was definitely wrong. I think I need to take a long break from trading any stock. Even a majority of my stock practice plays are failing. I’ve also noticed all my very short-term plays (in and out within 1 1/2 day) for the most part 90% work earning an average of around 5-10% per trade because the stock market is currently going up and down so much that by the 4-7th day in my option practice trade my options intrinsic value is becoming less and less even if the stock is going my way. Something I think is what makes Dick’s Sporting Goods a “hot pick” that is bound to go up is because its brand name is advertised all over ESPN’s basketball and football games. It’s subconsciously telling little boys and girls all over the world to buy from Dick’s. I have a Dicks Sporting Goods in my hometown of Virginia Beach and I have to admit its really simple nice store with a very good selection priced for the average consumer.

Conclusions: Well my DEC PUT is good until December 21st so I have a little less than 30 days for Apple Inc. stock basically to fall to around $150 to become profitable and sell out. I am 100% against depositing money into my account. I just “feel” like I am going to lose it! And any trader’s book says if you feel like you are not 100% confident about your trade you probably should not be trading and likely to lose. I know I have better trading skills then what I have been actually putting out. I need to put more research into trading a stock – before I trade a stock. Currently trades I consider won’t work to practice on ARE WORKING so I know it isn’t 100% my error either. The market is definitely a bit nutty with all this bad credit mortgage news and thriving tech companies.

Below is a 55 minute chart of DKS to show movement:
DKS 55 minute chart
(Click on to enlarge)


UPDATE – Dicks Sporting Goods earnings – Emerging trend

After looking at Qcharts and seeing Dicks Sporting Goods stock emerging a new uptrend with its profitable earnings statement and raising its 2007 outlook I had to post the chart for anyone interested to see – what I see. What I see is on the weekly major trend chart DKS has been totally sold off with the market after its 2:1 stock split. Now at $30.54 it is showing bottom curves going up on the MACD, StockRSI, and Directional movement. So basically it is at the bottom of the trend starting to move up. The price has fallen around 10pts since the 2:1 stock split. The peg is at around 1.20. I would practice on 2008 DKS JAN 30 CALLS @ $30.54.
This looks like a super buy in my opinion.

Check out the full weekly trend chart with my analysis:

DKS weekly stock chart

(Click on picture to show full size)


Stocks will continue to fall – PUTS – AAPL, RIMM, BIDU, GOOG, C, SHLD, RIG

The stock market had a small run this week, but not enough to make back the money I lost in my huge Nov 07 call positions. I tell you the most annoying thing that can happen to you is when your co-worker rubs your lost in your face. My reaction like any other trader is to want to beat his ass and prove him wrong, but I have to admit he’s totally right. I did lose some big bucks, I told him, and now he’s rubbing it in my face. I suppose I deserve it in a little way just to have this 3rd party in retrospect show me “you are trading crappy and until you prove me wrong I can joke and not believe you” and I probably shouldn’t of told him. Recently my co-worker has been trading real money. He has already told me he has lost -$3500 real money. Of course he is blaming the brokerage website, the stock (BIDU in this case), and everything else except his own trading actions. I think the only real bright future I have going for me is that I can handle the loss and can take responsibility for my own actions. I lost the money because I waited waited waited just to see it vanish when I could of took a big loss, but still had money left over. I also noticed he has been depositing more money into his account after he loses. This is another thing he doesn’t understand about me. I have not deposited money into my account. I use what I’ve got or else you lose more. His wife does not know about this, I’m sure. He is newly married and even though I shared options investing with him I’m not going to take the blame for any of his future dumb actions. He will not practice trade, he doesn’t read up about market history, and he doesn’t listen. He’s very scholarly, but as he will find out it’s not about being smart it’s about trading with as much information to make the probability in your favor to be right and not just trading off “feelings” or acting cocky.

Speaking of “feelings” I have to say I’ve been overwhelmed with them recently. It is almost as my dreams have be yanked away from me. Paying off that $35,000 note would of been huge for me not having that payment making owning that trailer park much easier. So bad decisions create dead dreams, not to say it won’t be a success, but it would have been a better success paying it off and not trading the markets as I did.

As for real estate I’m suppose to be selling my 2bed/1bath home in Hampton, VA for $105,000 down from $119,900 to an investor who says he will pay cash (equity). This will be good so I can finally close on my second mobile home park. Hopefully, God, yes that great universal truth will be at my side on my next deal. I will be putting around $40k down from my home sale.

Oh yes, the stock market. I bought AAPL DEC 125 PUTS @ $1.17 today. I only had less than $1200 left in my account so it cost me just under that for around 10 contracts or a $1000 trade. This is my last money. In Pring’s Technical Analysis for Charting book it shows 3 trends from the years 1987 to 1989. The charts currently for November 2007 match exactly with this historical charts. Even some of the same things were happening like inflation, slowing growth, and selling less and less (such as homes in our case/construction). If this proves correct we just started to fall from the second bearish top meaning it will fall much more. Then supposedly it will have a run Dec 07 into Jan 08. In jan 08′ it will start to fall through 09′ a fall much steeper and longer then what has currently been taking place. If charts stick then I will be watching for short Call plays and longer Put plays. This AAPL Put option should only last until mid-DEC 07′ if charts pull through with all the negative news. Apple is a great company, but many great companies fall with the markets. It is when everything settles the best companies have unimaginable runs such is what happened in 2003 on after the big fall of 01′.

well later -fn


whiped out! – starting off with $1000 again – i got a poised Apple!

Well…Here I am starting at $1000 again. The only stock that didn’t go down on me was my spicy pickle franchising stock. It’s down -$200, but nothing compared to my Nov MSFT and AAPL out of the money options. I was totally whiped out and I mean clean. Oh well. It is just money right? I definitely should of been watching the Nas and Djia which I didn’t realize were trending down until my older sister told me why she thought the market was going down. It came to me so unexpected, but I guess I should of expected the exception happening. I’ve been heavily deep into watching technology industry charts that this sudden crash just got me. I’ve already taken $1000 to $10,000 many times so I’m pretty confident I can do it again with the market falling so hard playing some Puts and then waiting for it to stop and play call options on AAPL and RIMM all the way back up to their 52 week high’s. Apple (AAPL currently at $156!) is still a great company with everything going for it. New awesome sleek products going into international markets and selling many iPhones its new product everyone wants. Oh, and did I say christmas and iPods? I have good reason for it to go back up in price after tech has been sold off but it will be a little while before that happens. I find analyst are suddenly bearish on Google (GOOG @ $642!). Why? This stock is major growth power and low peg of 1.30. If GOOG drops to the $600’s which it probably will with a PEG near 1.00 that stock will become a major buying opportunity. It is just too bad options cost so dang much. I probably could only afford way out of the money for $1000. I’m still rooting on Apple.

So because of this disaster. I’ve lost my total account basically around $26,000 within 1 week when stocks started to fall after dumb Cisco’s report (CSCO). I definitely should of just took out my winnings and paid off some crap or bought another house. I guess I keep learning the hard way. It isn’t easy being so risky sometimes. I will not be able to buy off my note for $35,000.

A person just gave me another offer of $105,000 for my single family home so I’m going to take it. That will give me a $35,000 profit after owning it/renting it out for almost 3 years. So this will go as my down payment through a 1031 tax exchange for the bigger mobile home park for $190,000. I ending mortgage was around $58,000 so after all the costs I should have at least I hope $40,000 applied to the commercial mortgage. I could also of refinanced my current mortgage, kept the incoming rent of $725/month, and took out an equity loan of around $50,000 for the down payment on another 20-30 year note. This was also an option, but I figured if I only have to worry about 1 payment at a time this is better even though my currenter is pretty good about making all her payments. So now I will have to mobile home park mortgages. My first park in Savannah is getting there. We are finally getting some better renters and hopefully I will get it fully rented earning around $2000/month which is my goal. As for the second park my goal is to keep the gross at around $4500. After all bills I want to be earning at least a net profit of $24,000 year. So no matter what I’ll have a decent income even if I have not made consistant money in the stock market. I think my goal now is to just pay off my real estate so the cashflow will get higher.

As for the stock market. Well I’m all in with $1000 as soon as I find the right play.


November 2007 – an exception to a bullish year – market crashing

Well, my sister is right for once. She is very right indeed. I’ve read a lot of books and well wasn’t really watching ALL the charts just the my industry charts on tech. I have an icky feeling that we will see Apple (AAPL @ $172) and Research In Motion (RIMM @ $112) fall to august 2007 lows again. So AAPL could go as low as $120’s. This is scary but true. All of my Qcharts are flipping over on the big charts (weekly and daily). Next week we may see a little run, but 2007 is going to be an exception then that means stocks should fall even hard through the fall months. Everything is in play credit problems, real estate sales dropping, oil rising, the dollar weakening, oh and yeah all stock charts showing a bust. I probably should of been playing closer attention to the big dogs Dow Jones and Nasdaq + futures. Sometimes it just really sucks working a lot because you don’t give yourself fully to what could cost you a lot of money, which it has. I was playing Microsoft (MSFT @ 34.40) and AAPL @ 172 November 07 calls way out of the money expecting a strong run being a volatile year and going into bullish seasons. What I didn’t take into account was what the big market was doing which is going down. So now this minor, yet huge, error has cost me over $20,000 in losses in a rather very short time period of a week. I was joking with my sister and her husband, “do you know what can kill an erection? a $20,000 dollar loss in a few days”. At least I thought it was funny and so did they.

I suppose it is good I can laugh about losing so much money, especially when it is the only money I’ve got. I think to myself I do have next year to try again, build up some cash, and start trading. Maybe one day I’ll get this professional trader thing down. I still definitely have no discipline. So my next plan will be building a trading plan on having no discipline. Sounds whack right? Maybe I can make a style so I can still be safe trading with still a lack of discipline. I think thought long-term I will go broke if I don’t gain some skills. I’ve been getting better at selling at a loss even a big loss and getting out. As for my AAPL and MSFT nov calls that expire next week (5 more trading days) well my account is whiped so if there is a 2 day rally I plan to sell out profitably or not.

November 2007 is definitely an exception. It sure had me fooled. I don’t care what Jim Crammer says the market is going down further before it has another big run. My taxes are going to kill me this year. Plus now I don’t have the money to pay off my car, money to pay off my mobile note that I was given the chance to pay $35,000 for which is worth $80,000 and huge saving. I suppose when opportunity knocks and you don’t have the money you definitely beat yourself up a little bit subconciously.

There is no praying or hoping in the stock market. The picture and information is there. It is about calculating and making wise decisions on what is happening in the market. I was really wrong about a bullish November and I take full responsibility for my loss because I wasn’t looking at the “big picture”.

well cheers to 2008 I guess. I guess if I had money Puts right now would of been a fabulous choice.


Google (GOOG) @ $437 profited me $15,000 in 5 days off near month call options

Last week was an excellent week. My art was together doing its thing. The day I told myself I would sell out my profit went up to + $20,000, but I was at a major disadvantage because I had no phone to call my broker nor internet to sell out. I finally did get to sell out of my Nov and Oct 07 670 call options both well over 100% ROI in less than 5 days market days. I told myself I’d sit back now before jumping into a new trade. I might take a tiny bit of my profits such as $500 to go through GOOG earnings on Oct 18, 2007. The past 2 years GOOG jumped around $30 if it reported good results so if it was another good year my options should sell out the day of earnings profitably.

My eyes are back on Apple Inc. (AAPL @ $167). I think it has finally maken up its mind to start “moving” again. It is definitely capitalizing in on the iPhone and its monopoly. I am seeing more and more iPhones in peoples hands and personally I want one too! I currently have a Nano iPod and enjoy it very much without any problems. Earnings should be stellar with Apple also taking over the computer market currently staking a 25% stake in the share of all computers sold. Apple is hot right now. I’d like to be options and see it go to $200 price target. This may happen at its next expo in January of 2008.

Lastly the only other company I’m interested in is Sears Holding Company (SHLD @ $142) the retail sales reports scared the stock some, but many factors are coming into play to force the stock up going into major retail selling season. Historically on charts it doesn’t move much after mid-November it looks so I don’t know how much a play SHLD will be, but I will watch it for a trade.

The lady I’ve been interested in is awesome, but I don’t think she is interested in me. Maybe the friend deal? Lame. I got to dance with her at Octoberfest here in Honolulu. I had a blast and wish I could do more with her. I did send her flowers and she loved them for sure. I guess only time will tell if I have a fighting chance at her heart.

As for my trailor park my new manager is doing a great job and I plan to buy some new trailers on the lots to rent out more. The second park is still waiting for appraisals and contracts to be done. I bought a residential lot near Austin, TX for $1000. Its right in a major new and upcoming community with tons of golf courses. If I do retire is that what retired people do? Play golf all the time?

After watching Michael Moore’s “Sicko” I think I’m going to also buy land in Canada, France, and Cuba since the healthcare seems to be great and Cuba buying up Peso’s could be a great investment long-term.


mobile home park repairs, new manager – non-farm payroll report

My new manager for my mobile home park #1 has been a life saver. He is on his game, at least seems honest, and will not put up with bad tenants. If we can get the park fully rented again I will at least break even in the mean time until I can buy more trailers to fill the empty lots available to rent. I am in another deal to buy an 18 lot park, with 18 park owned trailers, all fully rented, for $190k. You might ask why am I buying another park if my first park has gone to shit and I’m not profiting yet? Well I’m pretty ambitious so I don’t let one park bring me down. It will work. I believe in it, the people helping me, and fixing it up to rent fully. So far I have bought a park that is known as the worst/drug heavy spot outside of town. How’s that to know you are a park owner of scum? Hmm…I guess it could be worst. I was once a young man that would run away from this type of situation, now I’m going to go head on and fix it so I will suceed. If I want to be powerful and successful I need to learn how to fix problems. This is definitely a problem and with a $80k mortgage I definitely need to fix it. I will blog more as more trailers are rented out with more progress.

As for stocks. I steadily keep losing my money. It is simply amazing how well I can lose money. I’m not saying I’ve always lost money, but recently since August 2007 I’ve made some big loss trades. I should be making BIG gains, but for some reason I’m not making the right decisions. Granted, I don’t have time to watch the market all day, buy and sell when I want, but I had plenty of opportunities to make a profit and get out without losing the bulk of my money. Now that my down payment I was using to create more money for a deal is down I’m going to have to work and think triple hard to bring my trading money up to where it was before basically $40,000. Currently at $3000 (minus the $6000 that really doesn’t count because its my down payment, well was $10000 I should say).

I admit my ambitious move to put $10k into a trade to earn $20k probably wasn’t the smartest move, but a 50% chance is pretty good I think. Now that the $10k is $6k I’ll have to work it extra hard. I’m already -$8k down for the entire year. Not one withdrawed profit yet. My $40k profit should of been taken out immediately to put into real estate. Dumb me. Well I guess I learn repeatedly the hard way as usual. If I was married and she know would it make it any different? Would she convience my thoughts otherwise not to re-trade the big profit? Probably.

I plan on trading SHLD in the retail season. SHLD has broken its major downtrend and a lot of positive buzz has been on the stock from a billionaire buying up 5% of the stock just recently.
Currently at $151 and a high of $170s I think or should I say by the facts and charts right now seems like a great time to get in. AAPL @161 just moved up finally of course (taking forever).
AAPL might be the better stock going to $200? Whatever I trade it has to move up or I need to sell my options. The time value of Calls slow the price movement up if the stock stays flat and falls. This I have learned. The recent non-farm payroll report boosted stocks HIGH. I should of NOT bought Put options knowing that there was a “rumor” that the payroll report was going to be higher then expected which is bullish. Again, dumb me. Hard learning.

As for the ladies. I took one charming lady interested in the finance field out to lunch. Haven’t heard back from her – going to send her some small flowers. Will this get me any attention? noticeable? probably unlikely, but it is worth the try.

later -fn


Human Resoures – Not an easy job. Stocks – AAPL, SWN

Recently I’ve just started a fasttrack college course for an upper level Human Resources class. HR is much harder then I expected. I thought it would be cake! I give HR people much more credit now having to understand all the laws, rules, and regulations on hiring and planning your workforce. Being an HR takes brains I do not have to spare.

For stocks AAPL @ $138 has just been waiting for something to make it move. The news of its 1 millionth iPhone sale is good news to my options which are now in the negative again since I did not sell them when God gave me the choice to up a couple grand. I’m going to stick to my guns about AAPL stock moving much higher. I have to admit the $10 g’s I put into the options can not lose since that money is needed for another mobile home park I’m interested in buying. AAPL currently has a strong upward trend and I count on it to move much higher into Oct if more, many more, iPhones are sold. It’s a hot product and with the price reduction it should sell much more because a new “i” trend product. I’d like to make $20 g’s on AAPL options move the initial $10 g’s out into my escrow for my down payment and use the profits to buy more options. Another stock moving right along which has 100% broken it’s downward trend is SWN. SWN @ $42 now is steadily moving up with new $80 oil highs. Historically both stocks AAPL and SWN and NTRI have moved up end of August into October.

Currently I’m in “C” school for my military rate. It’s awesome. I’d really like to live the college dorm life even in my 30’s. Good food, exercise, computers labs, and young beautiful women. It doesn’t get much better then this. I feel so relaxed and no stress bothering me except getting business deals completed and selling out of stocks profitably.

So far I was wrong about SWN options since I bought them way way too early in Aug and now in Sept they will expire when the stock is just started to move up the past 6 days.
My NYX options that end is Sept have no chance since the stock is so hated. NYX should be a powerhouse and maybe one day it will be trading very high, but for now it doesn’t move past the $80’s.

I’m keeping an eye on NTRI which has moved down to $48 and now strong up into the $55’s. RIG @ $105 is still in the .31 PEG. Unbelieveable if you ask me.


stock market correction = uptrending

If you are a stock market follower you’d notice the different wording journalist are using such as “optimistic” that we hit our low just recently last Thursday Aug 16 to be exact. I was watching the market as AAPL was hitting $112’s and NYX was hitting $65’s. I was drawing my support lines because after the big red candle dropped a big white candle stood right next to it top to bottom and went right up with buyers looking for a golden opportunities. Since I’m still a student I really did not know which direction the market would go. On Friday stocks popped higher creating a doji star showing the market made up its mind. So now for the past almost 6 days the market has ran up with white candles breaking the downward trend since July 15th. I’m currently in AAPL JAN 200 CALLS up around 30% in my options +$3000 in 2 business days. I’m not going to sell at some crazy high number, but I am going to follow the major uptrend line until it is broken or bad news comes out, other wise I’m stick to my play. I’m very confident in Apple and until their next earnings call I’m going to trade it up to earnings or until I’m happy with my profit. I’d also love to be in SHLD and RIG Calls, but I’ve been taught to be in only one trade at a time even if there are other opportunities available. I need to stick to the rules and show some discipline or I’m never going to become a great trader.

Currently I’ve been looking at a trailor park to buy for $190,000. I’ve talked to many experts in this field and the price looks very good for what I’m getting which would be an 18 lot, 2.37 acre, with 18 park owned homes rented for $350-450 each, with all utilities established. It is around 20 minutes away from University of eastern Tennessee (Johnson City, TN). I’d really like to do the deal, but I want to get an outside property manager if I buy it. This is the advice I’ve gotten basically to get rid of any favoritism within the park. It would make some serious cashflow to my real estate portfolio. Between the 2 trailor parks I will eventually be receiving around a $50k net income a year more than my U.S. Coast Guard income so it would finally give me the choice of retirement at age 29. I still want to be a great trader, but it would give me choice even if I did not trade stock options.

I’m almost done with my 3 classes at HPU and will start another 5 online in the next two semesters. I want to double major by 2009 then do some pastry or music school or both when I get out. 2007 has been a very volatile year for my portfolio and my goal is to come out higher than last years or at least breaking even. Many of my penny stocks are worthless so I will have to sell them soon or I will be paying some serious taxes from gains I do not have anymore. Trends are looking good and the technicals are showing major buying right now so look out!


Apple Inc. (AAPL @ $126) big pull back expect lots of buying

Apple Inc. (AAPL) just recently took a big pull back at $126. I’d load up on shares if I wasn’t broke! hahahaha. Seriosly! Okay I’m not actually broke, but I definitely feel like I’m spent out to the max. For anyone interested in getting a bargain AAPL at $126 currently is because Apple Inc. is a great company that will keep earning profits even if the financial markets have a melt down because of its trendy very wanted products. AAPL current growth trends are off the charts by out selling the entire PC industry with its sleek charming Mac computer sales. All those iPods are finally paying off because those customers are switching to Macs. The iPhone will just be another diamond ring paying off big once it picks up and it will. Apple’s advertising on Tv works. The iPhone is awesome. Apple Inc. keeps turning heads with every new and old product they created improving everything about it, and Apple fans are great influence of more products being sold with mega word of mouth.

Even though currently on a 1 and 5 day chart AAPL looks glim and very bullish I expect bullish up ticks tomorrow or Monday back to the $135. IF AAPL continues to fall with the market (since the market IS falling) then better for me when I will have some capital saved up to buy it when it does start moving up again. I thought AAPL’s flame was over, but with new affordable Mac’s and the creation of the iPhone we could have another 2-5 years of upward growth for AAPL stock. This year I predict it to go well over $200 a share with increasing market share in the phone market and computer market. That currently would be a +$74 profit per share or around a 7000% profit on any option you buy now good until 2009.


HOKU, AAPL, SWN, NYX – Latest news on the trailor park

After HOKU earnings the stock plummeted to $8 and I totally expected it to fall. Everyone knew they weren’t going to show a profit and it is still very much a speculation stock because it hasn’t been able to start production yet. I’m with Jim Crammer about people rebuying it at a lower price and it moves up again throughout the year on its speculation of being the #1 for alternative energy. Our world is moving in that direction so I could only expect growth. As for AAPL it’s iPhone has been a success, but the market is turning over and its stock is finally starting to become submissive to all the selling. I’d buy AAPL later, but I see it moving much further down into the possible $110’s before it moves into the $200’s. If AAPL is able to continue momentum then I’d buy Calls on it if it moves past $150. Then it will be fighting the selling, but investors are true believers in it. It’s PEG score also has moved down to around 1.66 from over 2.00. So its value has gone up as well with its super profitable earnings. SWN’s charts have been showing a flip to oil/gas companies. Its major trend on the Daily and Weekly are going down with all smaller charts. Just yesterday it bumped up because it was slammed down into the Bollinger bands. I expect it to keep moving further down in the lower $30’s. I’m playing SEP 07 35 Puts on it currently up around 10%. I plan to sell out once it hits around $35 if I’m correct. NYX is always a confusing stock. You’d think this stock would be doing what ICE is doing, but it isn’t. I’m in Calls and I think I’m going to lose my entire $7,000 investment if by Sept. it doesn’t move higher than $87. At its current price of around $74 I’m left dumbfounded and believing in the stock that makes me seem living life a bit bicariously. NYX has had almost 4 major falls with small peaks. This stock has to pop high if on Aug 2nd earnings are awesome and profits are up. It should pop past $90 because there hasn’t been much news on it. So if it surprises investors and analysis it could finally get back in the game and be a more volatile stock like it use to be. If you are currently playing Puts on it you are probably a lot more correct and wise thinking then myself.

As for the good old trailor park I bought. I’ve been working with my property manager. I’ve been trying to get the cable tv hooked back up because it was disconnected before I could transfer it into my name. Two of the tenants are refusing to pay their rent because they are not receiving cable tv. Can you believe this? I’ve never heard of such a moron of a tenant in my life! I told him to turn off their electricity and gas that day until they paid their rent or enforce them to be evicted that week. I’m not going to tollerate this type of behavior. Business is business and you pay your rent regardless if you get cable tv or not. I pay for their housing and all utilities. Cable tv is a luxury. I only see future problems with very low income low education tenants like this in the future. I’m trying to move all the tenants in and rent the trailors properly with full leases, applications, and deposits so I don’t get shitted on. If I’m going to make this profitable I need to take the steps to make it profitable and not deal with unacceptable tenants.


20,000 Visitor Mark – No Show Date – High flyin stocks

Well today I just went over 20,000 hits on my blog. Not much compared to most famous and more interesting blogs, but still remarkable. I’d like to make my blog over 100,000 hits within another year. I’m coming to the conclusion that I just need more blogable fun stuff so readers will come back.

As for my saturday morning date she was a no show text messaging me she would be too tired with no possible message of trying to go out to eat again =C so I guess I’m off to finding another lucky woman. You can not imagine how psyched out I was about getting this date. I was pretty bummed out so I almost slept the entire day. Positive thing is I got with my music partner and finished some songs we were working on. I’m hoping they will be good enough to perform once we get them down and shoot some video for backdrops.

Stocks have been high flyin. My instincts keep telling me these expensive stocks are going to fall hard during the summer, but for many stocks their PE and PEG are very close to their value. Some stocks Forward earnings are rediculous, but for most brand name stocks with great products they are priced right and should move higher. I feel we are going into antoher big uptrend market. If you look at most solid growth stocks all trends are gradually moving up and unless something chaotic happens in America the market should keep following up this year.

NTRI is still at a PEG of around .82 at $72. AAPL is only around 1.21 at $137.
It seems many traders are long on HOKU currently at $14. If HOKU doesn’t starting building its parts soon the stock might lose steam. If more contracts keep coming HOKU should realistically push over $20 which is why I’m long in my call options for JAN 08. I’m up $2000 on my $900 investment so I’m more then likely going to be selling my call options on the next jump, wait for it to fall some, then move back in again. Some other stocks to pay attention to is NSC @ $55 with 1 PEG and 15x P/E, PDE @ $39 with .39 PEG and 13x P/E, CAT @ $85 1.17 PEG and 14x P/E


Reading my stock market diary exactly 1 year ago…

Flipping through my market diary I find that many of my stock picks I follow are up around $20-30 pts or 25-40% in price. Specifically AAPL, NTRI, BA, GOOG, SWN, TGT, GME, FXI, and many others. I’m hoping to use some of my diary to get some excellent plays in coming this fall. The stock market has really been rising with todays big increase in the Dow Jones I wonder when the market will flip. Last year at this time oil was hitting highs of $76/BBL and currently we are around $71 from where it dipped at $61. Most of these stocks still have a low PEG score with low P/E. I’m curious if we will have a high priced stock market in the next year or two where we will see the majority of stocks priced over $200 including stocks not supposed to be priced that high which will eventually fall the hardest again.

Currently I’m checking out another real estate deal since this 5-unit apartment building fell through because the seller would not communicate with me so I could get escrow and my mortgage lender setup correctly to buy it. Another property I put on hold was a hotel unit for sale where the hotel pays you X dollars upfront for leasing it from you for 2 years giving you guaranteed rent up to 4 years then your unit goes in a pool to rent out and you collect from that. It is on the Hilton Head Island, GA. It is suppose to be a premier spot in the south east coast so I’m going to do some research on it. It costs $249,000 with a 10% down payment and I’d get back my closing costs plus another $30,000 with in 2 years of closing if I leased it to to the hotel company. But after the 2-4 years I’d be forced to put it into the pool to rent out and unless the hotel shows full occupancy 6-9 months out of the year long-term it might not be a good deal. I would earn $50,000 back in two years which would pay for my student loan of $40,000. It would produce $700/month cash flow if rented full occupancy 12 months a year. I’m going to discuss it with the seller today and think out my options. Even if I made $300/month continually after the 2-4 years it would still be a great secure cashflow.

Besides money life I went to check out a new room to rent and met two cools girls. I ended up not renting the room but asking one of the women out to breakfast and got a “yes”. I didn’t think it would be so easy. So luckily this saturday morning date will be a lot of fun. I’ve never asked out a girl on a date by checking out rooms for rent, but hey nerds theres an idea.


HOKU, new recent real estate, and juggling college classes

Currently in the world of the finance ninja he has purchased his second real estate deal. The property is an RV/Trailor park in Tennessee. He has also enrolled in 3 online college classes getting closer to finish his BA, and his stocks holdings have still not changed -$21,000.

Why not talk in the third person?

About 2 weeks ago I believe I purchased HOKU JAN 2008 17.5 CALL options. I should of actually put a GTC up 100%, but of course I didn’t. Currently I’m up around 50%. I feel the stock has much more room to grow and I bought tons of time so I could receive a larger return.
Although HOKU is doing well I only had $1000 to invest so due to my negative -$21000 balance on the stocks owned my networth is still very unhappy with my bad decisions during the new year of 2007 trading.

As for my real estate developments I already know what you are thinking. How can I be purchasing real estate with no money left and who would want to buy a trailor park? Well, I went to a real estate game club that plays Rich Dad Poor Dad’s Cashflow and they sell real estate university packages with a website and company that prepares real estate deals for you. I didn’t buy into it, but for a bran new person it might be a great idea. Personally buying real estate isn’t that hard expecially when you are paying all the closing costs for other people to do everything for you. I actually have been looking on ebay.com real estate listing and loopnet.com listings. They offer a site called investorconcierge.com where you have to pay $3000 just to see the listings. Honestly I think that is crazy because there are already millions of listings available you can do advanced searches on to find bargains to start a real estate portfolio. Also to have full access to the site and first picks on the properties that aren’t any better then any others you have to end up paying around $21,000. Now if you want to do that great, but I’d rather take $21,000 and buy a properties or properties with that money instead of waste it on a 40 CD audio/video course I’m never going to take the time to watch because I’m spending 100% of my time on the internet searching properties and talking to professionals about buying them. Setting up deals isn’t hard. If you can do math then you can figure out if the property you are looking at will make you money. Speaking of properties the RV/Trailor park I bought in Tennessee, a state I’ve only driven through going to California, I found off ebay.com. I usually try to avoid ebay, but most people selling properties there usually have no luck selling in town possibly because its too small with no buyers interested or there to flip a properties quickly for a resale for a quick gain, but the property might be still very underpriced for its value. This RV/trailor park came across as an awesome deal if all things work out of course. It has 1.5 acres of land off a main highway near town. It has 10 units with 6 currently being rented. The owner owned all 6 units which were included in the property of sale. Each unit rents for an average of $450/month. Doing some quick math that is $2700/month income. The owner was selling the full park for $90,000 and offered owner financing at 10% if he got the full $90,000 with a mortgage note of $700/month. The owner/landlord pays all utilities of water, sewage, electricity, and cable of around $600/month.
So the net profit off this property with only 6 units rented is $1400/month or $18,850/year because he rents them weekly not monthly so that is an extra 4 weeks of rent (before property management fee of 10% net will be $1100/month). This is more than a seamn or E-3 makes in the USCG or Navy. His auction was up for a little less than 15 days I believe more than enough time for other investors to catch their eye. I’m surprised no one bought it sooner then I did. I basically just did some research on the town, talked to the owner, and found a property manager to take over the property for me since I will be an absent owner. All the seller wanted was at least $10,000 down which was reasonable and my student loans I took out for college and investing since that is my main independent study came to use finally. Anyone can take out a $40,000 student loan from any major lender. It isn’t very hard and you can use them for many things as long as you are a full-time student. I plan to use the remaining amount for a 3rd property and the rest two buy 4 more trailors for the park. That’s right. Four more trailors only renting at $400/month each would increase my cashflow to $4300 with a net of over $2700/month. Most likely my utilities would go up some, but not likely to double. As for why would the owner sell it for so cheap? I asked him. His answer was reasonable. He said he bought it 3 years earlier and it was a dump and dead. He put 6 old cheap trailors on them and fixed them up and now looking to sell it to go onto another deal. I figure he must of not put more than $30,000 into the 6 trailors and the piece of land. So selling it for $90,000 3 years later is an awesome deal for him and myself since the park produces a very good income. I plan to pay off the remaining $80,000 I owe him on a note sooner to increase my cashflow another $700 which would make it around $2100 with only 6 units occupied. I’m pretty psyched about the deal and my property manager seems very sharp and willing to do a good job. The property manager will earn 10% of all rental income so he wants to help me get those other spots filled increasing his cashflow. I will collect my first rent next week around July 11th.
I plan to build it up, buy more trailors to rent, and pay off the note within 2-5 years.

I enrolled in 3 college online classes in HPU. I expect to get underway soon and will likely blog more occassionally because I have nothing better else to do stuck on the boat once my watch is finished. I study, write some music, and research stocks. This is a normal day underway after work. I like to sleep a lot too, but drills prevent sleep so you do everything else in between. I’m finally qualified so I’ll only have to train for drills which will open more time.

As for am I happy? Well that real estate deal even though it cost me $10,000 felt like buying a bran new car even though it is very new or pretty. I haven’t been very happy lately. Actually this girl I asked to dance and talked to at a concert is really bugging me. I really wish I’d gotten her phone number instead of giving her my fun looking business card! Well I guess I might learn next time, or not. I’m getting fat too. As for personal life fatness sucks. No ninja is quick or stealth-like getting fatter. I plan to exercise more, do more push-ups, and sit-ups, but I have yet to get started. Why? Hmm… a little bit of lazy-ness most likely… Underway you usually get fatter since all you do is eat. I plan to only eat cereal and soups. This should cut down and help me keep that extra sea fat off.

well aloha
-fn


Stocks, Stress, and Acupuncture

I just recently received my first acupuncture and coupling therapy or should I say rather relaxation time. I just got the massagers info off the internet and she was very friendly and willing to charge me a lower rate for my income. She first did massage, then coupling which is like heated suction on your back to take out acids, and then needle pins in my hands, feet, ears, and head. It is suppose to reduce or get rid of stress for a week. I’ve been pretty upbeat and I have to say more then usual. Even my roommates have told me last night I’ve done a 180, but I think it was more of just being in a good mood and joking the horror movie more than anything. I also got to jam out with my friend on our music project so that was awesome.

Stress recently has gotten the best of me because I’ve been trading so miserably, decreasing my networth day by day, and seeing the pearly gates of heaven burn burn burn infront of me.
If I plan to make a difference in the world with money I’m going to have to make it, not lose it.

I recently, or should I say finally, got my bran new custom 6’6″ classic fish surfboard. I’ll post pictures soon. It’s very wide and fat more than I expected, but very quick.

As for stocks there has been super profitable plays all that I did not trade because I am in over my head in losing dead end trades. I really don’t believe in investments. I laugh at people saying I’ll wait 10 years for a stock to move in my direction. For myself I’d be really old by then. Why would I want to wait 10 years I suppose it’s the same type of person that strictly invests in IRA’s, 401K’s, and planning on retiring after 20 years of military or civilian corporate employment. Well that isn’t me! I want to succeed in trading options now within a certain time frame so I can retire early, much earlier then my peers. I’m sick of working. Working is for droids. I want to “live” and I really mean that in the wholeness of “live” not just work my whole life for no real purpose.

Well enough on the philosophical approach.
Big gainers recently have been probably #1 AMZN and AAPL. More calm big movers for the liquid market would be the QQQQ’s. If you haven’t you really need to check out the big mega trend. Could this be a very bullish year or is the market ready to puke up some serious profits?
Many stocks turned this week after the Dow hit $13,000 level. My MAY 05 105 PUTS in FXI are going my way and all the main charts are lining up for a big fat fall on FXI’s big ass. Things can always change and I may still be wrong if I don’t sell soon for a negotiably decent profit of around 20% for the month.

Recently I’ve seen a change in momentum on WTVI.PK. Not a stock I’m too fond of but its not even a stock its just a penny stock. If it IS TRUE that they enrolled a real astonishing 50,000 new members then its a big milestone and accomplishment for the boring yet “trying” website. This could create major new buying and at $.0035 cents WTVI.PK isn’t cheap, but curiosity.
Will curiosity kill the cat again?


The Google monster gobbles another insect company up!

Google Inc. (GOOG @ $466) as you should know put in a bid for $3.1 billion for Double Click which could help increase the companies growth and monster advertising machine. GOOG is recently priced way below its target of the $550 price range and its PEG score is trading about under 1.00 which most analyst would consider it a bargain stock. Last year GOOG’s earnings were great and the stock sky rocketed up 35 pts and within 4 days dropped almost 40 pts. What does this mean? Maybe much of the stock price was already amped up into earnings and the stock price did reflect the earnings data which made the stock hype immediately start selling off. GOOG is the #1 tech/internet stock for the past 3 years. Although I can currently see the price steadily moving up with a strong trend I also feel GOOG will be hit the hardest when the next fly-by-night tech/.com’s come again. It isn’t like GOOG isn’t worth $466 and it does have billions in cash so it isn’t going bankrupt any time soon. Google is also doing the right things as a growing company to keep market share, sustain growth, and be around a very long time. But when the market does turn (maybe this summer?) I think GOOG is going to be hit hard again down to the low $400’s to possible $350’s to shoot back up to over $500 when the real investors step in that will drive the price back up. Also recently Google.com is starting to create a more personalized look for users like Yahoo.com uses. In away I think this is a bad idea, but also it could help generate more revenue for the giant if yahoo.com users would switch entirely to google.com if google.com gave that personalized web-home experience.

Earnings this week have been good so far expecially with McDonalds (non-tech) MCD @ $48. I previous said around 5 months back that MCD was a buy @ $43. MCD has steadily moved up the charts and showing positive growth for the giant franchise real estate/fastfood company.

Earnings I’m anxious to hear about is GRMN, AAPL, GOOG, BA, NTRI, and RIMM recently we already know increased profits. Bad news for AAPL that again they are delaying their new software Leopard and iPhone. I already know of many people ready to buy the iPhone regardless of price young and old. It is going to be a success. I hope they fix ANY and ALL bugs with it before it becomes internationally distributed. I know a select amount of individuals that do have ongoing problems with their iPods crashing or freezing and for the most part Apple had worked to satisfy those customers head on. Another company to look at for is Sears Holding Co. (SHLD) for retail sales outlook. Luxury retailers have been doing well again this year too. Many economists say the market will be a volatile choppy one and so far the waves have been pretty large. Look at NYX with it trading over 100 then down to 80 then back to 100 again. I’d consider that a sweet trade if I’d only focused on it. My concentration has been rather off the past 6 months and I need to get back into just focusing on stocks I previous traded before that I know much more about.

So far this year I’ve definitely ventured off into the hard rocky dangerous path by choice. It has helped my increase my goals faster, but also has worsened my ethics and rules for proper trading to live a long traders life. I’m slowly crippling myself the way I am trading and if I don’t start really pushing healthier trading habits I will die.


Wi-fiTv.com (WTVI.PK) following a minor uptrend, BA, NTRI

Wi-FiTv.com just came out with a new press release on posting wedding video. I have to admit this is something definitely I don’t see or hear about on the web. The company is either crazy for thinking this up (being a private more intimate memory) or they are brilliant and wedding video posting might be worth $$$. I guess in the months ahead as they establish themselves on the internet (because it doesn’t just happen overnight coming from experience). WTVI.PK stock price has been volatile because it is a penny stock and because of this you shouldn’t ever be afraid. You aren’t invested your next egg or childs college tuition, you are rather investing a few thousand dollars or the price of a nice flat screen Tv. It is a speculative company.

WTVI.PK has been starting to follow a minor uptrend and lets all hope it continues with increased buying in the stock (the only way it will go up). I noticed today much of the buying probably was from the press release from over 13 million shares traded. For such a small company many shares are traded because relatively any investor can buy a couple 100,000 shares for less than a couple thousand dollars which is hard to do with any dollar stock.
Current stock price is support in the .012 to .02 range. Click on picture to enlarge below.

WTVI.PK Daily Stock Chart

wtvi.pk daily stock chart

Current Boeing has created a large candle with increased 787 orders and follows a strong uptrend. Check out chart.

BA Daily Stock Chart

BA daily stock chart

Nutri Systems Inc. has recently popped after earnings and mildly traded lower from the volatile sudden increase. 200 million share buyback is in place by company and target has been raised to $76 from increased growth. Besides this the companies correction was good so investors could get back in at $44 stock price. If the stock does not hit $49 by the end of the week I’m selling off my options most likely if the stock trade reverses itself. Currently the trade has a good story, but NTRI hasn’t been picked up on yet or Jim Cramer. Today it traded lower but 8 minute chart shows its still bullish to move higher into the next trading day.

NTRI 8 minute stock chart

NTRI 8 minute stock chart

NTRI Daily stock chart

NTRI daily stock chart


Recent option plays BA and NTRI – Also WTVI, CCNG, TRMP

Recently Call Option plays I’m in are BA (Boeing Inc.) and NTRI (Nutri Systems Inc.). BA current trend has been modestly going up daily, receiving new orders, with a low PEG, high FWD earnings, and continual solid growth. BA closed at 89.51. I’m playing the APR 95 CALLS. As for NTRI it just recently surprised Wall Street with excellent earnings and growth. It gapped up and has recently fallen some to where I feel a good buying opportunity is pretty. Just recently in the past 3 days the stock has moved up 2 pts and it’s likely that some of that $200 million buyback program has started with the price traded towards it 52 week low with a good story to rise its price. Analyst have also priced it at $76 with its current growth. I bought JUN 50 CALLS. Did I also mention that NTRI current PEG is below 1.00 at .55 this is at bargain level for a stock this is receiving large growth. NTRI closed at 47.67. NTRI traded .25 higher after hours.

Currently TRMP raised the idea of selling out its Atlantic City, NJ casinos for a cash sale. TRMP up 8% on Friday 9th. Currently I’m in TRMP options long and after reviewing the PEG, FWD earnings, and current sales it doesn’t seem like a great company to buy at the moment. The thing Trump Casinos does have going for them is the brand name Trump, prime location, and current value of half billion dollars. TRMP closed at 18.19.

As for every speculators favorite company http://www.wi-fitv.com the company endlessly puts out new press releases, which is keeping investors involved, at the same time I want the company to start heavily advertising the website on the internet to really raise the traffic, new members, and increased advertising rates for banners and tv commercials. Currently the company values around $250k from the current stock price of $.015 which went up today 25%. WTVI is slowly forming a support price. It broke $.02 cents and I was highly disappointed, but most investors are right thinking it will probably drop into the sub-penny levels. Personally, this is bad for current investors and future ones. A steady gain in price is much healthier and investable. If you see a stock going down and staying down you don’t want to buy it no matter how good the story is on the stock. As for a stock slowly trailing and following WTVI is CCNG. CCNG is a collectables company probably worth more in capital and assets then WTVI, but trading many times lower in the sub-penny levels still. I would be surprised to see CCNG trading at below $.05 by the end of the year while receiving more orders to sell to retail and franchisers. It currently trades at $.0004. If you currently bought 1 million shares it would cost you only $400 plus commissions. That is right only $400 for 1 million shares. If the stock goes to even just $.01 cent you would make a $9600 profit almost 11x more then you put into it.

Another stock to take look at is PSPM a technology company that has created patents for lower energy using lightbulbs and currently highered WestingHouse’s veteran sales person.
The stock has steadily moved down, but if they do sell their licenses expect the capital of the company to be worth over $1 billion dollars. For this reason PSPM is really worth looking at.


Current option and penny stock plays I’m in.

Currently it looks like the Nasdaq could possibly be ready to start its next bull rally. Many stock charts are showing some selling, but long-term everyone is buying into different Tech sectors.

QQQQ’s Daily stock chart

qqqq stock chart

Recently I saw CCNG.OB was connected to WTVI.PK, but hasn’t been picked up yet. This company already has a good plan in place and is thinking ahead. They aren’t needy of wi-fitv.com to be a hit because they receive much of their business from other businesses buying their products to sell retail. It just recently had an order that will most likely give them repeat business and they are using an internet marketer which is a very smart thing to do if you want an internet presense to receive more exposure to big companies needing their products. I think they are taking the right steps to be successful. I also think their site is setup much nicer, more professional, and the image of the CEO is more updated and friendly stating “yeah I’m an older guy with a beard, but I’ve been in business for a long time and I can do the job right”. This is what it shows me. Alex’s picture from WTVI’s site looks to be from the 1980’s and its just a bad picture. I wish he’d update it. I see it as bad public view. If you say you are an internet video guru at least have a really nice looking image of yourself.

CCNG Daily stock chart

CCNG stock chart

Lately Casino’s have surprised me and they continue to profit and take peoples money. Atlantic City, NJ is making it more gambler friendly restructuring all the casinos and that is why I think LVS and TRMP are good casino plays. Currently the charts show a reversal in price for a possible move up either this month or in this year.

LVS Daily stock chart

LVS stock chart

TRMP Daily stock chart

TRMP stock chart

Last NYX exchange stock has been hammered down and recently shown some bullish trading. The DMI has just recently started to go down again when I saw it going up. This stock is kind of mixed and I’m a bit confused myself. The big trend shows it moving up and if Tech is in then I see this stock moving up higher.

NYX Daily Stock Chart

NYX stock chart


Technical analysis for LMT, CMG, OIH, and ALGN stock charts + More

Recently I’ve been doing some technical analysis on many stock charts. I’ve found LMT, CMG, OIH, and ALGN to be with best plays for trading stock options. Also a review on GOOG, AAPL, RIMM, WTVI.PK below with some information on our real estate bubble we have going on today.

Lockheed Martin Co. (LMT) has a strong uptrend and will continue until broken. The current bearish conditions aren’t effecting it, at least yet. (Click image to enlarge)

LMT Daily Chart

LMT stock chart

Chiptole Resturants Group (CMG) is looking like a short-term pullback to around $59. If it supports at that level then it should continue up its trend. So far it has done very well for a new IPO in this market. (Click image to enlarge)

CMG Daily Chart

CMG stock chart

Oil Holders Trust ETF fund follows oil. Currently oil has started to move again, but keeps getting pushes down. I see OIH short-term moving further down and would place Puts. Now for tomorrow it looks like OIH and oil that plunges 4% will pop higher – see my 55 minute chart. It’s direction shows upward morning movement. (Click image to englarge)

OIH Daily Chart

OIH daily stock chart

OIH 55 Minute Chart

OIH 55 minute stock chart

Align Technologies (ALGN) a teeth braces company has just recently bought out a partner, had a profitable quarter, was just upgraded, and is creating a strong uptrend. (Click image to enlarge)

ALGN Daily Chart

algn daily stock chart

Some other stocks you should take notice of right now is Google Inc. (GOOG) falling to $458 which looks like it will fall further before it is bought into again. GOOG is sliding down against the Bollinger bands so I’d expect it to have small rebounds down. Apple Inc. was just murded down to around $83 everyone keeps talking about how it is overvalued right now, Citigroup just upgraded it to a buy with a $105 price target with excellent commentary, and it is just about to come out with new products late Feb 07. These are all reasons I think its going to get out of its downtrend and crater-like chart. I feel RIMM which is moving volatile sideways will soon push past the $140 mark to hit its target once AAPL moves fast in the same direction. The stocks almost mirror each other in movement and news.

Another stock to take notice is WTVI.PK – Wi-fi Tv Inc. I’ve bought up around 853,000 shares and thats about all I’ll invest (around $3800 position). From everyone I’ve posted with on blog discussions the investors are very unhappy with how the company is going about getting channels, members, and an audience. So am I. The funny thing is all these people have bought shares and I guess you can say we are 100% gambling with where the company will go. So far my investment has gone up 100% from $.004 to .01 below is a stock chart of WTVI.PK. I think the stock will really move if the format of the site has really changed to welcome young people and uploaded better content to keep visitors watching the channels.
(Click image to enlarge)

WTVI Daily Chart

WTVI daily stock chart

I just recently read an article on Richdad.com’s site about the dollar falling and putting your money into gold and silver. I can’t agree or disagree because I don’t know much about buying fine metals, but what I do agree with is the real estate market is out of proportion and ready for a big bust. If you are ready you could make a fortune after the bust if you have money ready to pour into cheap fundamentally good real estate.


AAPL, RIMM, and MA down, entire market down, dumb Feds and rate hikes.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) headed lower to $83.20 down 3% (-$2.91). Definitely a hit today with the entire market going down after Fed chairmain Bernanke said the U.S. growth has been too quick and a rate hike will happen. I was very wrong about AAPL and did not take in the fact that a big Fed decision was going to be made today. If I would of not have traded AAPL it would of prevented a big loss moved by the market after the rate hike decision. Investors not happy about this sold off stocks without any buyers their to get in on. Mastercard reported today (MA) and dropped 10% to $103 like its previous earnings even beating analyst expectations with investors worried about profit growth. Looking at the technical chart it looks like buyers were confidently getting back in at a lower price level the last hour to buy back the stock at the $100-103 range. I think its a buying opportunity now to with a pull back from $118, but with the current market conditions I’d wait to make sure and see a climbing pattern to show the stock is still bullish.

See MA’s 55 minute and daily chart below: (Click to enlarge)

MA 55 minute chart

MA daily stock chart

As for AAPL, if the entire market doesn’t rally next week I will be 100% wrong about it. It’s previous year during the time it made a strong downtrend and then was broken in Feb just like this year. The down trend has been broken and AAPL is due for at least a mini-rally. It seems CEO Steve Jobs head is getting a little to ballooned up with his iPhone product and iTunes music store dominating the digital music market. I read a bloggers comment about how CEO Steve Jobs would never release a product until 1 month before shipping to keep it secret and he broke that rule with the iPhone giving it 6 months until its release. Now other companies like Samsung are duplicating the phone look and must likely ship the same time giving more consumers a “choice”. So I think the blogger made a good point there where if its released a month before its shipped it doesn’t give huge companies time to make a simular product to compete with Apple Inc’s product. I guess we’ll see how things work out. I’ve been hearing a lot of positive talk about this iTV even though everyone that talks about it doesn’t even really know what it is or what it does. Interesting huh? From my knowledge it is basically a digital library to simplize it. You can put all your iTunes downloads on it connect to your Tv set to watch it. My questions is aren’t computer monitor screens just as good or even better than Tv screens these days? I think its taking a step back. I think Apple Inc. should of offered a big flat screen with the iTv built in or of made that a choice. It just seems like a lot of unnecessary electronics that will clutter your room to me. I like Apple but I think we should be kicking the Tv set out by now. I watch my cable on my lapton, project, or on my flat screen computer monitor. I think the Tv is bulky and out of the question of having.

Below is AAPL’s 3% sell off and most likely start to a bear downtrend:
(Click to enlarge)
APPL 55 MINUTE CHART

Another stock trading more volatile then AAPL great for the experienced option trader is Research In Motion (RIMM) which also fell 3% today in the tech sector. Most of it’s buying opportunities have been in the $122-124 price range before it shoots back up to the $130’s.

See below in RIMM’s daily chart: (Click to enlarge)

RIMM daily stock chart


Reviewing stock market chart trends for Apple Computer (AAPL), Research In Motion (RIMM), Las Vegas Sands Casino (LVS), and Conoco-Phillips Oil (COP)

Below are some charts I saved for blog discussion. If you think I’m wrong about the direction of the stock then explain your “why” in the comments or if you think I’m right let me know also.

Below is RIMM’s Daily and Weekly chart.

First is Research In Motion (RIMM). Recently a large sell-off has probably been influened by a lot of reasons 1. Feb Bernanke comments, 2. Apple taking market share and AAPL self-off, and 3. Jim Cramers Mad Money showing saying to sell RIMM probably got fragile investors going. RIMM earnings aren’t until April 2007. Since the market is turning over right now and many over bought and higly priced stocks are getting a lot of profit taking. As you have seen with AAPL and RIMM as soon as fear is shown and investors are worried about loosing profit more selling happens bringing in a new trend of selling with worried investors. Just recently Fed Bernankes comments of a “fiscal crisis” is not what positive optimistic investors wanted to hear. That is a great reason to start buying Puts on all your favorite stocks.

rimm_18jan07_daily.JPG

rimm_18jan07_weekly.JPG

Below is AAPL’s Daily chart.

You can see Apple Computer’s doji star reversal sign with a opening low gap after earnings. You can also see volume being sold off and changing direction. For the past 5 years AAPL has moved down after Q1 earnings even if beating analyst. I expect AAPL to open lower again 1/19/07. It might move higher, but end lower.

aapl_18jan07_daily.JPG

Below is COP’s chart.

Conoco-Phillips has been trading sideways with good size Call and Put trades going both ways. Currently I think COP is going higher even with the recent Crude oil at below $50 BBL. We are going to be hitting a support level soon on crude. They oil companies are going to pay off congress or something. It will happen and oil will go higher again probably to $60. There has already been reported a cold-wave coming through the states and oil prices/bills are going to rise for next quarter. I think COP, as a company, stands out. This Call position might be too early. There is room for error here that COP could go lower, but I think my entry point is on the money.

COP chart

Below LVS’s chart.

Las Vegas Sands Casino company has done quite well and still growing. I remember when this stock was only $60. At that time it’s trend was going up on all charts. I was buying other options most likely for AAPL and some stocks I regret now trying to get more growth when LVS would of did it all with FXI. I think some profits are going to be taken off the table and this stock will be pushed down to $100 again before it moves higher unless it trades with the rest of the market down.

lvs_18jan07_daily.JPG

well let me know your thoughts to discuss leave a comment.
thanks, finance ninja


I call this the 50/50 Earnings Report Scenario

The past couple of days I’ve been trying to figure out how to make a safe small trade that could potentially increase my chances of making it to $1 million in my 10 months goal is what I call the 50/50 earnings report scenario. You take a very volatile stock and buy 50% Puts and 50% Calls way out of the money to earn well over 100% the day before earnings is annouced. If the stock pops very high or low based on a surprise beating wall street analysts or missing analyst estimates you can make money either way. Because 50% of your money will be worth $0, but the other even 50% of your money could double making the 2 trades together profitable.

Say you take Apple Computer Inc. which has had a great year and expected to beat earnings with major increasing sales with new iPod units and iTunes music download service. Let’s also not forgetting the growing market share they are taking in their thriving computers sales of their newer computers. Apple’s price has been up and down on positive and negative news. Its also possible the stock could tank even if the earnings are good, believe me I’ve seen it happen with GRMN.

This time I’m going to play it cool. I’m going to play this earnings game smarter. Since I have received a fat profit with the stock this month I am only going to take a small bit of the profits to go through earnings. So say if the new price targets on AAPL are $110-120 and the price of 1/12/07 is $94 and I expected it to mildy go up 5% that would be around +5.20pts, but I expect AAPL to jump with this bullish market at least 10% making the stock open around $105 at least. If that did happen my way out of the money CALLS would be well over 100% and I could sell out being in the trade less than 1 day. Same options for a PUT. Say AAPL misses or beats but tanks 5-10% down to $80-85 I could still come out a winner. No matter which was the stock moves fast I will be write. If this trade works I could practically use it on every stock that reports earnings.

The math behind it for you to understand is this: The 50/50% earnings report scenario.

If I buy $500 worth of calls for .15 = 30 contracts
I also buy $500 worth of puts for .20 = 25 contracts

AAPL reports earnings = The price jumps up or down 10%
With $500 into 2 trades one will be practically = $0
But the other will be worth at least $2,000-3,000 more.

Summary of the math:

You take your profiting trade minus your loosing -$500 trade = Up +$2000-2500.
I call this the 50/50% earnings scenario trade. Now, if the stock doesn’t move at all you can just sell out of both positions most likely for a even trade with minimal losses except commission costs.

On January 16 I will buy into my positions and on January 17 after Apple Computer reports earnings I will either be +2,000 to add to my goal or just broke even and sell out of my trades.
I really do not think breaking even will be it with all the enthusiatic investors behind AAPL.

cheers, FN


Apple Computer (AAPL) the good news and bad news…

As you all have heard if you read any financial online news Apple Computer’s commity board has cleared CEO Steve Jobs of all the options probes, which lifted the stock price up 5% Friday to around $85. My options will become unsellable soon if this coming week Wed through Friday of 2007 AAPL does not move back to the $90’s now with a big kick of momentum. I feel the better decision to invest in would of been FXI index fund now around $112 which would of been the easier more trustworthy trend to follow, but there are not woulds and coulds in investing. Once your order has been taken you are in. Yes I had the option to get out early loosing only a few hundred dollars, but my darn concious has not been disciplined yet. I just don’t want to loose and I am starting to think because I don’t want to loose I actually loose not only my money I save to invest, but also my gaining confidence that I can be a successful long-term trader in the stock market. Sometimes I feel like there is no hope in my trading because I don’t know how to say no to trades I want to get into. There is no “Happy in Seatle” ever. I just want more more more. I ended up adding to loosing trades turning them into bigger loosers and when I do get out profitably I’m not happy with my results even if I get a big gain because I did not trade correctly how I was taught. I don’t want to keep learning lessons in the market. I want to make solid outstanding trades. I just need to become that solid outstanding disciplined trader able to accept to be a looser and let the market win sometimes because I’m learning many times you might not be correct so you have to get out when you are wrong.

Apple Computer after releasing CEO Steve Jobs from the option probe looked like it could come around until it unleased a handful of plaintiff lawsuits against AAPL’s “itunes and ipod monopoly”. I’d really like to punch the company or person in the face that has these claims. You know Apple was a nobody company back in the 1970’s and nobody really believed in it. It started with just college kids liking to program and make a difference in the home computer world with little money. They didn’t start out thinking they were going to dominate the world with a huge monopoly on music downloads, computers for artist and movie makers, and iPod players that consumers just want so bad. I’m sure every company in the back of their heads and in their mission statements wants to be successful with no limits to profits. Sure there is a lot of marketing involved this is what most any successful company does – Find out what consumers want to buy and Apple made big bucks doing just this – Great Ads for iTunes and iPods.

Apple computers stock and computers were really only bought by schools through the 1980’s (I remember using them and learning how to type on them in Middle School), and not until the 1990’s they were highly loved by musicians and artists. Until CEO Steve Jobs came out with the iPod around 2000 Apple was a nobody in the computer business with such a small niche. Now they have a product everybody loves and did a great job with it’s sales force and upgraded their computers to compete with PC’sto be bought by their new customers wanting only Apple and you have the right to throw a lawsuit against them? I guess it is your right, but I’d like the right to knock you out. So stop bitching and come out with own great product that you’ve worked secretly hard on and sell it to the world.

I see AAPL moving up or staying at the same price until earnings and see it still dropping unless Apple Computer creates new history for itself. It currently has a high PEG score over 2 times which means it’s being sold, although its EPS and growth looks really good to keep the stock moving up over time if it can keep momentum with new computer sales growth is the real key to Apple’s long-term success with new products.

I’ve recently been reading Cramer’s book “Mad Money” the new one and will be doing a review on it soon.
Cheers -FN


2007 best stock picks for options trading

Updated! 1/12/07

2007 Stocks picks were easy to pick out at least from charts. 2006 stock picking was difficult because many of the stocks I was watching at the time traded very choppy and with the drop in May 06 to Aug 06 it caught many investors off guard. You could of threw a dart at any stock in Aug 06 and would of received excellent profitable returns on it. Last year this time Google flew to a new high then tanked. The second half of 2006 market has been very bullish that thinking the bears are hiding around the corner isn’t a possibility, but they are! At least I think so. I think some older stocks like Amazon.com are going to fly higher again while stocks that have been in the spotlight for a long time like Google.com, Sears Holding Co., and Apple Computers are going to fall the hardest at the top of their game. This is option investing so this is why I am interested in stocks that could fall hard meaning big profits and also pick stocks that I think will also go up in price.

[For my own practicing I’d buy these Call/Put options today at the current stock price as if I was for real. I will go over my top picks 6 months and 1 year after today to see if I was right about the direction of the stock or until I am happy with my profits. These Calls/Puts will be used on my 2007 best stock picks for trading options. (To make it easy I will buy 10 contracts (1000 shares) for each Call and Put) I may be incorrect during the short-term on these fluctuating stocks, but for the long-term before the end of 2007 I predict the following most profitable.]

2007 Top stock picks for Call Option Trades: (Meaning I believe these stocks will trade higher)

iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI @ $107.65) 1/3/07 hit $118 +10pts
FXI ETF Fund has been extremely strong in strength closely following our market trends but includes over 90 companies held in China that are growing with China’s economy. Big uptrend solid on all charts. Plus everyone knows how fast China is growing and with this ETF you own the companies that are receiving the profits. Possible dips but strong on uptrend.

Amazon.com (AMZN @ $39.80) Would sell. Weak around $38 1/12/07
I predict Amazon.com Co. to head north to $60 or close to this price level because solid earnings, increased profitability and revenue, and buyers are finally interested in the stock again. Yearly trends are forming into an upward trend. Two upward peaks have already happened. Amazon.com is a great place to buy theses off of. It has everything and consumers come back. If you look back at strong sales growth in AMZN when it does well the stock jumps and heads higher for months until the profit taking begins. AMZN is undervalued under $40.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG @ $56.25) 1/12/07 hit $58.20 +2pts
CMG is a new company and does simular family-like resturant but hip like Apple Bee’s and TGI Friday’s. Delicious food turning into a delicious stock investors are eating up. Although I feel $56 is actually high, CMG is setup to go higher and has a strong IPO trend. I see CMG moving to over $60.

Research in Motion (RIMM @ $127.62) 1/8/07 hit $142 +15pts
RIMM has been having an outstanding year with AAPL and technology sector. Robust profits and keeping market share. It has been pulling back, but trends have not been broken. I still am confident RIMM will hit back up to $140 then to $160 before it either has a stocksplit or falls from an “okay” quarter.

2007 Top stock picks for Put Option Trades: (Meaning I believe these stocks will trade lower)

Google.com (GOOG @ $458.00) Wrong about GOOG. At $455 it bottomed out. 1/12/06 hit $505 and rising. Buy with current uptrend going into earnings.
Google.com may goto $600, but indicators are showing it will go below $400 price level first. Google is loosing its fame and fans and the stock is being sold off.

Sears Holding Co. (SHLD @ $166.63) Also wrong about SHLD 1/8/07 bottomed at $165 now hit new year high 1/12/07 at $177 +10pts up and rising with strong retail sales. Buy going into earnings.
Chart indicators show a “Black Cloud” hovering on the top showing weakness in buying. Could be a large move downward into the $130’s.

Apple Computer (AAPL @ $81.51) Half correct so far about rising to fame with the Mac Expo going as high as $97 1/10/07 +16pts wait to see after earnings and what happens to CEO Jobs for options probe.
Apple Computer has shown the most evidence after earnings in January to come down. I think this year for Q1 Apple will have a great year, but investors will be selling while they are having a great year. Although I think short term into earnings Apple should perform well back into the 90’s, which hasn’t happened yet -10pts within the past 2 weeks I believe AAPL will have a rise to fame then crash and burn to around $65 support price in Feb-Mar 2007. Yearly charts are lined up to go down hard, but up short term on oversold stock. For the most part it seems most stocks are lined to sell off in 2007.

2007 Wild Cards – The Steel and Oil Industry could go either way. I predict the following.

OIH Oil Holdings (OIH @ $140.00) 1/11/06 hit $126 low +14pts on a PUT play, right, but maybe bottoming out to go higher with low $51BBL oil could rebound. I’d buy Puts at the moment and once the price lands around $120-130 I’d rebuy Calls. Charts currently show selling off. But big trend shows oil could be getting a lot more expensive very soon.

Nucor Corp. (NUE @ $55.54) 1/12/06 hit $56. Seems bottomed out and cratering to the upside. Earnings Jan 24. Never went lower then $54. I’d buy Puts at the moment and once the price hits $45 rebuy Calls. Downtrend currently, but long term steel could get more expensive very soon.