Irrationally mad decision making to obtain the American Dream.

Ackman vs. Icahn – AAPL, NFLX, GOOG, HLF, MJNA – Stocks pumped and dumped!

The Ackman vs. Icahn billionaire investor battle over Herbal Life (HLF) has kept my interest since Dec. 2012 when it all began. I have made and lost money trying to figure out which direction the stock will go. I currently purchased a small call position going into earnings. From experience, actually being a direct seller in a network marketing company such as Herbal Life, I know they aren’t pyramid schemes as much as people like to accuse them of being. If that was true then our government and any corporate structure is the same visual pyramid looking scheme – a person on the top and then it fills wider and wider into the bottom feeders. After HLF earnings were released I was crossing my fingers for the best but since the stock didn’t jump 10-20% (because it proved Icahn won his bet and Ackman will likely lose his $1 billion short bet since the company isn’t going bust) – but since it didn’t pop it made me curious. All I could think up is that both stakes have already been priced into the stock with solid earnings. There is this 11am conference call tomorrow and everyone seems to be making a big deal over it even though the earnings were already announced today…It doesn’t add up. The top level managers aren’t going to say anything much different then what is already reported. HLF seems to have a lot of support and current trends show it moving up since Icahn went public on his larger stake. Within 3 days I should be sold out or it could be pumped and dumped over this anticipated event tomorrow afternoon…Yikes.

This brings me to trading and picking stocks in general. I’m horrible at it. I see stocks constantly moving up and up and up with no real technical indicators. They just move up and everything at least on the charts doesn’t show me any real entry/buying point. So what do I choose? AAPL. Apple continues to swing. It has been hitting this daily trend and bouncing back up. But I wonder is 3 falls a charm to fall further – harder – down down down? I currently purchased deep calls since technically it shows it is still going up a new trend even though it is still below the big falling weekly/daily trend. I’m predicting Apple will pop up 10-15pts within the next 3 days because if it doesn’t then I’m dead wrong and its head to fall 20-40 more points. This just doesn’t make sense for a company that is the big dog, most analyst sound bullish on it, and it’s popular with consumers. If anything when* it’s ready it will move up considerably and I’m waiting to get on that ride early.

Now stocks that I should be trading calls on but they move at a turtle consistent upward pace without much pull-back that it scares me to buy in which are GOOG and NFLX. Good grief. These damn stocks are making money and of course I’m not trading them. I have this bad luck. I’m not kidding. I swear. I get into a perfectly good trade with everything saying it’s moving up and then I swear as soon as I enter it falls! I don’t get it. I’ve found if I’m patient I can get out of it profitably – usually – but these two stocks have moved a lot and that keeps me away from trading calls on them even though they keep going up big every day.  I’m only trading Apple because I feel it has room to move but in actually GOOG and NFLX are probably safer more reliable trades because they aren’t so talked about and hated for being who they are. AAPL, however, is currently hated for cash hoarding and lack of new products. Does GOOG or NFLX really have any new products? NO! But that’s Mr. Market for you.

Last MJNA, Medical Marijuana, which I have followed for 3 months. I almost invested $7000 which would of turned into $30,000 over 1 month but I didn’t do the trade – I traded stupid Apple and others which ran me more into the ground. The stock has fallen and currently has received criticism calling it a scam company. I have a feeling the guy who wrote this lengthly article claiming everyone in the company to be a scam and “pump and dump” (which I couldn’t agree more on the second part) was likely pumped and dumped himself on the stock. I usually find angry analyst/stock traders that lost on the trade. He likely bought it high and now it’s half. He’s pissed and letting it all out. The company definitely has real products and patents. It’s not really a product stock it owns patents and earns royalties off them. I think any company in the growing marijuana industry is currently being pumped and dumped because they are hot items. I still would like to invest in this company as soon as the stock starts moving up its trend again. I think I’d purchase it above $.40 but since I’m not interested in holding stocks it probably wouldn’t be worth my time even if it doubled/tripled in price in which I would also dump it on new investors. It’s much easier to trade options on a stock that moves then a penny stock that will waste your time. I’d rather wait for it to be $100 and trade options on it once it moves daily.

On the record people who invest in the market should realize and not be so stupid that real estate and stocks are constantly being pumped an dumped. Buy low – sell high. Sounds great, but buying and the right entry is critical so do your best. hahah. You just might get dumped.

Until next time reporting on my AAPL & HLF call options…

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