Irrationally mad decision making to obtain the American Dream.

HOKU Scientific – I’m pretty psyched about this one.

Okay okay! Yes I know I have not blogged in probably 2 months. Bad on my part, but it didnt’ seem like anyone even reads my blog anyway. More of a gesture to myself when I do right and wrong. From my past underway trip a co-worker, who is now out of the military, found this stock HOKU at $4.25. The company is actually located only 20 minutes from the place I live now. My friend, I’ll call him PO, was telling me about contracts HOKU was going to receive later in the year, now. I didn’t think much of it. “Now” the contracts have been completed and are starting. This HOKU stock that was $4.25 then is now trading over $9. It is up 100%. I’m pretty proud of my friend. He bought it around $5 and was worried it was going to fall, but was psyched and sold it when it popped over $7. So I congradulated him on his successful trade. Only recently HOKU’s stock PEG and P/E has been shown with the new contracts reflecting in its new price movement. At $9 it still has a PEG score of .19 and PE of only 8 times earnings. All I can say is WOW! It’s market cap currently is only $158 million, but it is on a growth streak. Since it has 2 contracts now I would not be surprised to see more come with currently over $1 billion in work orders. What is even better is that it trades options so I can buy a leap option on it for under $1 still.

Mentally I’ve been in a dead zone, not knowing where to start, and every practice trading coming to a halt of problems. I definitely have not been on my game. I feel I’ve got now game. My trading has been getting weaker instead of getting stronger. I just can not figure out why I keep trading worse and worse. I start practice trades and dont’ finish them or find it agonizing to finish them because I’m so wrong. I mean how wrong can you get when there is only a 50% chance of being wrong. I was taught that it doesn’t matter if you are wrong or right what matters is knowing what happened so you can use it in your favor the next time you do that trade. I just don’t know exactly what I’m doing. I try trading stocksplits, spinoffs, earnings, annoucing products/shows, and world market moving news and some how I keep ending up on the losing side of the table.

There is also another point I want to make here that makes me sound 100% foolish trading my own plan for the market. I told myself last year when I lost tons of money to not trade after January and not until at least September. If you haven’t read any of my blog posts then I’ll inform you that I have been very actively trading when I told myself to stay out of the game to warm up and prepare myself after the summer. I find myself a foolish unprofessional mess.

I have made some mad money, but I’ve also lost some insane needed money to increase my wealth. I keep fucking up. It basically comes down to that. Now I wonder. I see a value growth stock such as HOKU and wonder is it the next TASR (TASER) which will run up and die or like an energy drink that gets a lot of buzz, a lot of publicity, and increases its market share and holds ground? Will it sky rocket and dive down during the summer or will continually move up and be a sufficient trade? Being only .19 and 8 times earnings I don’t see how I can go wrong, but it has moved up 100% in the past 2 months. I don’t want to get on the wrong side. Should I be playing Puts? It just doesn’t make any sense with such value.

Any suggestions?

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3 responses

  1. This one looks like a winner – losing money currently but with a trend of declining losses and analysts forecast a profit next year. Well done! If I had made a score like this I would likely sell half taking my initial investment out and then let it ride. But I am very cautious compared to you 🙂

    June 22, 2007 at 1:10 pm

  2. Hey Moom. It’s been awhile. HOKU is down -6% today which is realistic after a 40% increase yesterday. It is on an uptrend. I notice after big jumps on earnings or announcements the stock gradually falls to about half of what it spiked. This current news is a bit different forcasting a profit and it has sealed deals of a billion. I’ve never seen a stock with a PEG of only .19 so I’m very interested to see if it flys until it reaches around a PEG of .90 or 1.20. You you think any big time investor would be buying something up with only 8 times earnings. I could be wrong. I’ve been very wrong before, but I definitely like to take chances and with that data HOKU has a great chance at hitting $20-30. I’m just waiting for a new price target.

    June 22, 2007 at 5:56 pm

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