AAPL Earnings – Whammy! Plus life on the boat…
Life has been somewhat groggy here on the boat. My super duper options strategy did not work on AAPL. The stock did pop up 4 pts in afters just to be sold off by insiders to open much lower creating a doji start (lower opening gap). Well you know I don’t care. Okay. I was wrong the stock price didn’t goto $105 or higher as I was wishing so screw it I’m playing Puts on AAPL as far as it will go. Last year it has records earnings too just to have the stock price drop from the $90’s to the $65’s. I told my mom the price was going to drop no matter how good the earnings were and I was right, but she and the stupid iPhone news convinced me other wise to play a small position of calls.
I played a too far out of the money play at Feb 125 calls worth $0 now and a smaller way out of the money Put position of Feb 75 Puts and both go down. I’ve been finding this pattern of after earnings both out of the money options go down. This makes NO sense. I’m sure there is some reasoning behind it, but it makes my super plan fail fail fail.
I saw the charts turning around 2pm EST for AAPL making a small bull attempt just to go further down. I bought in at around $90.50 and currently its $89. My option is in the money (yes for once in my life time) APR 90 Puts. If it does anything like last year and the years before that its going to fall hard for a couple of months the move back up with its new iPhone product if it sells well. I’m not upset over being wrong even though it was a real money play. I was so sure AAPL would either fall very very hard or jump very very high. It did go down 6% but I was expecting a bit more dramatic hit then that. I suppose in the next few days it will be down another 10-15% if I’m correct. The chart indicators show a Put play with an engulfing red candle and a lower opening gap doji star with a reversal down hammer. My Feb 75 Puts probably will become profitable if AAPL really falls within the month which could make me two over 100% plays for Feb 07 beating my monthly increase of trading cash goals and closer to my $1 million trade mark.
As for ship life my new working schedule has made me a bit groggy, but I’m starting to get use to it. I’m making a couple of new friends I hope and finishing my qualifications to advance in rank within the next 6 months for a modest pay increase to increase my savings per month.
We will soon hit our next port call. I hope I come back with surfing pictures to blog about.
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This entry was posted on January 19, 2007 by Paul Awol. It was filed under 50/50% earnings report scenario, apple computer blog, how to become a millionaire, ROI, technical chart, trading stock options .