Hit my first stock target price prediction on Southwestern Energy Company (SWN) @ $41

SWN yesterday hit $41 and just today pulled back as typical, but definitely on a moving force. I believe the last time I spoke last week it was over $35.  What a great call option play, but I’ll have MY day and as long as I keep up with my numbers I should be more ready this fall.  It might just work out for me this time with the market poised to turn harder up with all of Fed. Bernanke’s talkin-the-talk, rumors being spread, some mediocre better numbers on economic reports, and stocks finally moving back up leaving their steeply discounted prices.  It bothers me a bit.  I admit it, I want to trade so bad.  I have to resist the powers and keep my promise to myself….man these months discipling myself not to trade have been hard.  I get these voices saying, “come on this one will work, you’ve been waiting for it, it will only be one trade…” I have to resist the evil within.  I’m sure it means fun and good intentions in it’s own evil mysterious universal ways but I need to stick to my big guns and keep them strapped in just a bit longer.

There will ALWAYs be trades in the future, big moves, small moves, and no moves.  Everyday the stock market goes up and down, sidways, and life goes on.  Today I’m a trader, tomorrow, and for the rest of my life.

I WILL MAKE LARGE PROFITS OFF YOU SWN, AAPL, NUE, GOOG, SPWR, FSLR, GME, and housing stocks your time is near!  You better be afraid market makers of this big Clint Eastword city slicker trader!  Be very afraid I will come back the Green Giant!

Other news on stocks – General Motors (GM) 1:100 reverse stock split.  What a joke.  NOW THATS A PUT OPTION PLAY!  This stock when it goes from $2 to $200 (your money cut in half) will start selling like girl scout cookies.  Oh, the put option on that baby will be one fat profit play mark my words.  ill do an update on it a few weeks after its split.  reverse stock splits are the worse.

when government steps in to bailout market surges up

it seems like when ever the government bails out another company in this case being Citigroup (c) with a “rescue plan” or rumor of one the stock market surged up in the last 30 minutes of trading of the “good” news or is it? look at the automakers…. is it fair that the government only bails out selective companies? i don’t care what the government does i really don’t have much control over it’s decision but i do have control over my stock option trades. i do think if a company made really bad financial decisions then they should go down. let the strongest and smartest survive. so if the asian auto market takes over the usa because they have better management and cutting costs then say good bye to our automakers that created the industry because they don’t know how to “change” with the industry. we need a company that is going to make a big change for the environment and put their business on the line. hydrogen cars have already been made, why not in full production? just stop making normal cars and make better clean energy cars and price them same and i bet people would start buying them like hotcakes because same cost and less gas needed. the problem, oil. politicians still make mega kickbacks on oil so until we don’t bail out oil we are screwed for new innovations in the auto market.

i thought the market was finally going to move up 2 weeks ago, but it continued down some more.
SWN hit $22! bounced back up to $26 and i plan for it to hit $28-30 this would be a definite call option trade if for real. GOOG at $261. wow. hard times i guess on these once big high flying stocks…

stocks jump off bollinger bands – FSLR expected too

I had a hunch today might jump up some after around 2 days of losses, but on the charts everything was still moving down. The only precise clear signal I saw for a real call option trade was on FSLR with it’s big red candle dipping below the BB’s and on smaller charts showing technicals moving up in the morning.

Today stocks really moved with force. I noticed on the charts and highs/lows how much of a swing there was showing major candle wick buying support/confidence. I have to admit the good thing about practice trading and figuring out which side of the trade you should be on is that you can be wrong and not lose money! Currently looking at AAPL charts on the 233 min. there is a clear picture of what happened today and likely on every chart I look at too. For the past week and half stocks have been falling and today from what I see will create a few up days or call option practice trades. Currently many of PUT trades were profitable even though they closed higher because they fell lower.

For a moment I considered staying in the Puts for tomorrow, but the right thing would be do to close them since I know stocks are about to move higher and change sides. The only ones within yesterdays practice trades that would have worked would have been ones hitting low low’s. (or +$1-2 on option)

Now, I still have my “ifs” because also on all the 55 min charts it shows each white candle getting smaller and smaller not hitting top BB’s (except AAPL). So this could also bring me to the conclusion that todays boost could be short-lived and fall again hard tomorrow. I’m going to play dcalls because the charts say a second day of upward movement, but we are still in all downtrends currently. So since I’m not playing long-term Puts I will trade what I see on a weekly basis.

See below with completed practice trades 11/12/08 and new 11/13/08 following:
SOLD

BOUGHT

Sold call/put option practice plays – +130%

I was wrong about SWN trying to trade it against the general market while I saw everything else going down. This just shows “the trend is your friend” is the real deal. Below are my practice option trades on FSLR, GOOG, AAPL, RIMM, QQQQ, SWN, ATS.

Although on big charts shows uptrend, short-term stocks will continue to fall again

The day after the election said a lot. Basically in my opinion the markets gained so much in the past week that after election day they puked. At least in the short term on charts it looks like stocks will continue to fall some more especially RIMM, AAPL, QQQQ, FSLR, AKS, and GOOG on daily and 233 charts. The only stock I would bet against the market flow at the money is Southwestern Energy Company (SWN) with its strong momentum breaking through all major down trends currently at $37 which keeps hitting lows of $26 then popping back up to $28-31. I can see it surpassing $45 by end of November 08′ if it keeps up. Magic is happening on weekly charts right now. Real strong support hitting real lows on bottoms slowly curving up creating big U’s showing a real change in direction, but how much change and how soon?

My put option practice plays:
RIMM, AAPL, QQQQ’s, FSLR, AKS, GOOG
My call option practice play:
SWN

interesting times and paranoid economicist! – google earnings

I think Google (GOOG) earnings say a lot about our current economic “crisis” which isn’t much a crisis at all but politicians trying to force Americans into thinking paranoid about their well being to get more control behind the government. That stated Google did fine this quarter. It is up +10% after earning of a profitable quarter. The CEO is smart. They are going to conserve more and take away a lot of the goodies the dish out to employees to save money during the slow cycle we are currently in. America goes through up’s and down’s. Some longer then others. I’m clearly not worried. I’m sure our government will print more money lower interest rates and slowly the cycle will get better and Americans will “regain the confidence level in buying” and maybe just maybe (and when) Obama becomes President if his goal is #1 energy he will spend spend spend on light rail systems, creating denser more populated cities, and have more energy efficent cars like hydrogren and bring back nuclear power plants to power America more efficiently. GOOG has proved internet stocks (tech in general) is still alive and kicking. America is still alive. Yes, home prices are down inflation WILL keep creeping up but you might as well get use to it, I have. Paranoia creates paranoia and negativity IS addicting. So although no one is optimistic I will keep my stance on being very optimistic.

Now I do admit the DJIA and NAS are in downtrend cycles and even with a big +976pt day (supposedly the best day every for wall street) the market will continue to fall after the short brief bump up. It’s okay. Our markets have gained a lot so we have a lot of room to lose then make back up. People keep asking me with a downtrending market what should I buy? I say nothing. I say wait until the President is elected. Then consider buying energy if Obama wins and technology if McCain wins. I actually tell everyone EVERYONE to buy real estate right now instead of stocks.

my practice trades for the rest of the week put and call options – ICE has a real unique chart currently showing “W” reversal.

currently the only chart that stands out from many perfectly downtrends technical charts is ICE with a plain view “W” support bullish reversal on dailly and 233 minute charts. check it out for yourself. since it’s by itself I don’t think i would trade it as a real trade just because everything is moving down so if the market keeps moving down by force it will too.

put and call option practice trades on V,AAPL,ATVI,FSLR,GOOG,HANS,RIMM,SBUX,EOG,SWN,RIG,NYX,MA,DKS,SHLD,ICE

after -777pt DJIA drop predictable “sold off” rebound begins

I didn’t even realize how low stocks sold off until I saw today before the open. I would have traded short-term like 1 day in/out call options on them especially the good stocks. But if you watched GOOG today it dropped again to all new lows. Scary. Very scary, but awesome at the same time if you were playing intraday put options on it. I’ve noticed in my optionsxpress account now whenever I am looking at financial stocks basically all of them say “no short selling allowed”. They are really starting to protect companies too much. If a trader is short selling a company then he is betting on the company falling for good reasons. In the real free markets there should be short selling. If the trader is wrong he’ll lose all his money so the trader must no something.

Although I expect the market to continue falling I can bet the market with such a large drop and even a large come back +5% across the board on indexes will move up one more day before they continue you to fall. Now that I think about it they may just rally into Thursday when the Senate votes on the bail. A great economic blog called Giving Up Control makes some real points about the bailout, congress, and wolves disguised in clothes.

Here are my call option plays for tomorrow:

practice call option trades

call options plays worked +45%, RIMM drops hard after earnings release, stocks bottoming

the market seemed to get more optimistic today. warren buffet’s edgy deal profiting from Goldman Sachs (GS) couldn’t hurt. without even looking at my charts i know that congestion would be shown with stocks starting to break out. after the market today Research in Motion (RIMM) dove down on earnings. it just shows how unpredictable stocks are releasing earnings. stocks across the board are down a lot and i’m curious if investors fear more after RIMM’s -20% drop. i do know also the Republican party threw out the bailout plan Democratics were happy with. i’m sure this creates some room for panic and turbulance in the markets as well. i will likely be practicing put options tomorrow unless the bailout plan is passed through law and okayed by everyone. should Fed bernaneke really be taken serious? if he just gave “why” an answer with “facts” rather then just vague statements i think everyone would take the Fed more seriously.

see below call option plays closed today:

call option plays

put option practice plays – winning stocks i think that hit bottom

currently i’m trading all my favorite stocks as put option practice plays because we just had a mega short rally, the mini bubble burst, all stocks have doji evening stars, and show signs of at least short-term downtrend movement. however glancing at a few stock charts and know how much growth some stocks are STILL having i think HANS, NTRI, and AAPL are real winners and aren’t going to move much down anymore. For one thing HANS and NTRI have been stuck on the bottom for a while and they are slowly starting an uptrend. As for AAPL it has been on a bumpy ride, but going into the Christmas holiday shopping season it should have a better quarter in Jan 09′. Plus AAPL is selling millions of iPhones, regardless of a reduction in price, it is gaining growth market daily. NTRI and HANS are also at the top of Fortunes 100 fastest growing companies. NTRI has been having sour quarters, but still growing so when it does have a very good quarter the stock price could really run. ICE has a huge evening start stretching huge support and resistance on both sides. SWN and RIG are strong currently in energy sector. I think after this third top going down will be a strong support area and that will be the bottom for at least energy, excluding stocks like FSLR which I think could fall a lot more down. RIG has actually broken it’s downtrend so if SWN and RIG are positive this week I would think it is going to be the real bottom and start playing calls up.

see put option practice plays below:

put option practice trades

Currently where financial institutions are going I would keep playing it a put until things really change. It seems tax payers are really going to burn for corporate errors again instead of the companies paying for their own problems. I admit if a person bought a home they couldn’t afford and they lost it I’m okay with that. It is not the banks fault, it is the customers fault for being stupid. But when the bank screws up I do not think it is fair when the big American federal reserve bank bails them out if it isn’t going to bail out the American working class (although if they did I would want a free house too).

Energy continues to rise SWN, RIG, FSLR – Tech still losers.

So on my short call plays energy stocks SWN, RIG, and FSLR would have continued to increase in option price, but tech RIMM and AAPL continue to fall with charts. RIMM charts actually looked like it was going to spike higher, but I’m pretty sure right now AAPL is influencing on its stock. I think RIMM will take off the quickest once its out of AAPL’s shadow, yeah you heard that right. They follow each other so I wouldn’t be surprised once it wins investors over again to move much quicker past its 52 week highs with a PEG of .82

GOOG yesterday created a fat big while engulfing candle going from $400 to the $430s a big swing showing its strong and no negative news is going to shut down its optimistic growth idea thinking. it’s advertising will keep being a money machine. I wouldn’t be surprised to see GOOG swing back up past the $450’s into the $500’s again this fall as the tide increases.

We are definitely at a low low tide. So the best stocks should start to show some sunshine soon..

market continues to tank. AAPL news. dead options.

Well as anyone can see the stock market is sliding off the charts. All my charts show a continual fall unless or should I say “when” the market decides to change direction. Currently all tech and energy stocks are creating huge whammy engulfing bearish candles continually. Instead of like 3 bearish soliders its like 20-30 bearish soldiers which really makes me believe change is due sooner or later. I’m really curious what is happening with First Solar – FSLR. Man this stock has been hit hard with Google – GOOG. Both stocks have fallen around -$80 points. Talk about a killing if you were playing Put Options on both of these stocks from the start. You are talking about a small fortune.

Apple recently will have news of new products and price decreases analyst say/think. I can already assume the price will drop if they do lower prices because that lowers margines and growth in big money long-term. It isn’t like bran new products with big margins that grows the capital. Now they are lowering prices which will reflect AAPL stock price lowering. If the low this year was around $112 I believe and its currently around $159. Then if this news is all true of lowering prices even if the iPhone is a hit then buying Puts maybe the smartest action.

My current options in SWN OCT calls are dead and I’ll leave it at that. My account is back to zero. When will I ever have the discipline and be prepared to actually sell out and buy in the new direction I don’t know. Maybe when I have the time to just watch and actually take the action. Seeing these huge slides, no money to trade, and no real time just sucks. These swings are huge and option traders “should” be making money, but then again if you are wrong and you won’t admit it then you probably won’t have enough money left to trade.

Besides all that crap because it is just crap in my life not working out. I think I’m going to use all my GI Bill money for the next 3 years once I’m out to go to school full-time and since now you get BAH too I can actually stash money away in account for another real estate deal while going to school. I’m pretty psyched. Schools like www.fullsail.com and www.nyfa.com are available and fully paid for. I think it would be fun to attend. I’m also considering The Texas Culinary Academy in Austin. I want to hit a big city where I might be able to make a living somehow until my trading starts earning instead of losing. I need to stay positive damnit. I admit its hard, very hard when I just keep fucking losing, yeah. I’m pissed today.

wild market seems like. trading blind.

It seems since I got back from patrol in march 08′ that I’ve been the total slacker journaling in my market diary, practice trades, and just keeping up with my favorite stocks. I basically traded blind in April-May and got what I deserved losing my account. The market has been so wild. Like today FSLR down almost 40 pts in a month and specifically down -$15 today. GOOG has been moving up finally and it’s PEG of 1.00 deserves the stock to do so. A $600-700 price target looks really realistic with all the billions, new technologyies, and still growth. Then there is oil and energy stocks. It’s a no brainer oil stocks were going to move higher and pull back. Lastly theres big growth stocks like MA and V. I have to admit I was not trading V at the right time at $82 twice. When I saw is laying dead at $77 that was the right pull back price now currently hit $87 this move would have been plenty to earn 100% on, but I guess you keep learning and eating dirt along the way…

Still waiting to close. VA appraisers most be stereotyped to take forever to finish so now I have to wait the full amount which is June 6th supposedly to get my keys. My refinancing if everything goes smooth will be June 9th. My home was appraised at $117k in Virginia. I’m still happy with that with the markets fluctuating in housing industry. That’s still almost a 50% gain over 3 years on the purchase price. My home in Hawaii was appraised higher then the selling price so the appraiser knew it was worth well more then what I paid. Usually a home is only appraised at the loan value not more over while mine was appraised $10k over the purchase price meaning the true market value is around $60-80k in the money full of equity. This is pleasing in the chance that in a few years I could earn over $100k would be awesome if I did decide to sell. Even then I’m going to turn this into my dream home (or should I say apartment) so I might really end of loving it.

Bought V May 85 Calls I-T-M. Thinking a soon sell-off…

I love Visa (V) and I bought 1 contract today at $4. This IPO has a higher PE + double the capitilization of Mastercard (MA) so it should surpass MA in price currently at $298! With Visa @ $86 seems very undervalued and at a bargain price now publicly offered in my opinion especially with a bigger better branded name on more credit cards.

I bought another SWN SEP 40 Call @ $6.10 (same price) so now I have two contracts with the price currently hovering around $7.50 a contract. My GTC is at $8.10 even though I want to raise it I’d rather put it in a faster moving stock like Visa.

I’ve got this subconcious feeling looking at some over inflated stock price charts that some big stocks are ready to sell-off by investors taking a breather and dealing with other factors such as their homes falling in price such as First Solar, Bidu, and Google. Yeah, I know major growth stocks with good stories, but my daily and weekly charts seem to indicate engulfing bearish candles and if within reason (week) or so they don’t move up much higher then they should follow the current down trend further down. I would short them, but I’ve been burned way too many times losing money. So until I see a big break in trend or big move I will not listen to my gutt and instead not trade the stocks at all to be safe then sorry.

I’m extremely confident that AAPL, SWN, and V will continue a strong uptrend with of course dips and pull backs in the markets, but will go UP without reason for big reasons that are making the stocks $$$.

My order on V MAY 85 Calls:
5/6/2008 10:45:47 AM (ET):
Symbol: .VEQ
Description: V MAY 85 Call
Stock: V at 86.93
Action: Bought To Open
Quantity: 1 contract(s)
Price: $4.00
Commission: $14.95
Reg Fees: $0.00
Net Amt: $414.95

GTC @ $8 +100% <— Goal time within 3-7 days

new stock chart trends updated (right – CHART TRENDS)

I’ve uploaded about 20 of the stocks I watch daily, where the trend I think it is going, and commentary on the chart for my reference to see if I was right or wrong for future new charts.

charts updated: (put curser over chart picture and it will give name of stock)
aapl, atvi, rimm, goog, bidu, fxi, dks, hans, hoku, rig, swn, inp, ttm, ma, c, and more.

new trend chart technical analysis for January 11, 2008 stocks

I’ve got the time to upload some new trend charts I’m studying to see them just click on the flickr trend picture column or click here to see my flickr page of all my trend charts.

trend charts include: AAPL, ATVI, C, DKS, FXI, HOKU, HANS, MA, INP, TTM, YHOO, GOOG, RIG, SWN, RIMM

check out INP. I’ve seen this stock go from $48 to now $112. Like FXI I think it still has much room to grow with small downs and big moves up with India’s major growth. I believe TTM will start to follow india stocks with its new plan for $2500 car.

check out AAPL. will it get support at current price levels ($172)? major trend will be breached soon if Mac Expo 08′ and earning on january 18th do not give investors reasons to keep charging the stock up. If you look at any other tech stock right now BIDU, GOOG, RIMM charts show in favor of major downtrend to form if negative opinions continue on the economy.

btw – only 70 pages left of Alan Greenspans book! great book and very insightful.

Choppy fall markets continue with late day sell offs and rollercoasters!

So I’m in San Diego, CA on my north patrol portal. This is my first of many I suppose if our boat keeps working. The stock market has been ruff as usually simular to Alaska waters. I uploaded many technical analysis on stocks charts so be sure to see them (flickr pics on right side).

So I’m thinking after looking at many charts that the markets trend is still going down.

My practice option trading would go something like this: [short term plays]

BUYING CALLS on:
Southwestern Energy Company (SWN @ $49) – hitting bottom BB’s with strong trend up with raising oil prices increasing more popularity for energy to increase.
GameStop Co. (GME @ $51) – following strong uptrend and has been sold off even though it is the number one electronics game retailer. Every kid, teenager, and dad goes to this store to buy new and used games. It’s hot, and going into christmas its sales should increasingly rise.

BUYING PUTS on:
Apple Inc. (AAPL @ $172) – Hot product, high price, but currently tech and the entire market makes this stock so vulnerable to any move and I think the next move will be down.
Sears Holding Co. (SHLD @ $107) – Super company, lowering peg, but it seems retail just isn’t the industry to be buying in at the moment. Big downtrends and probably will see lower prices before buying happens.
Macy’s (M @ $28) – Again. Mega store everyone knows, but not in the buying club at the moment. Is anything? Low peg, lots of value, but no buying into it.
Goldman Sachs (GS @ $207) – This financial stock even though has losses is one of the better value you ones that won’t be held down for too long. Low peg of .70, low PE, but the banking stocks are just in crutches. The only banking stock I think should outperform all the others besides losses is Bearsterns (BSC @ $91) because its book/price is $86. I think it will keep bouncing off this support price. Peg currently at 1.06. I think this is the best play if buying CALLS. BSC will be the first to back to its highs, at least I think.
Citigroup (C @ $31) – This stock is going to its grave in my opinion. Mega huge banking system that I feel hasn’t got credit for the billions it has lost yet. But nothing can beat Country Wide financial (CFC @ $8) – This thing is going to $1 in my opinion. Mega PUT stock. You could probably get rich playing PUTS on it if you were smart and had money left to trade.
Google (GOOG @ $666) – Note the price! Scary huh? Stock charts show GOOG flipping over and about to be sold, at least short term. Peg is 1.26 not bad for a $600 stock which really says something, its going higher!
Nutri Systems Inc (NTRI @ $25) – This stock just has big pops (big white canldes) and then tanks. Sell offs. Funny thing is that its peg is like only .36 or something right now. IF IF IF it proves still to have good growth next quarter this stock is going to jump probably 30-50% in one day. Sounds crazy, but I could see it happening being sold off like an ugly stock now, but it is also getting all these lawsuit cases which probably isn’t helping publicity to want to buy it either.
Mastercard (MA @ $181) – Hot stock, super product. They basically just make millions a day off dumb consumers spending credit cards and never paying them off. I’m really not sorry if you are one of them. You have a choice, which is why this stock is going higher, but in the mean time it looks like it is being sold off some.
Ocean Outrigger (RIG @ $129) – RIG looks ready to fall some. Major growth and long-term CALL play in my opinion with rising oil prices.
Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS @ $30) – recent +7% just went to 0%. Falling charts makes this a short-term PUT play. Lots of Tv advertising you should be noticing especially on ESPN. They want to be a number one sports retailer and they are doing the right things to get there and stay there for a while.
China International Index Fund (FXI @ $168) – This stock has been falling and will continue to with the markets/asia markets. Charts show more selling coming.

whiped out! – starting off with $1000 again – i got a poised Apple!

Well…Here I am starting at $1000 again. The only stock that didn’t go down on me was my spicy pickle franchising stock. It’s down -$200, but nothing compared to my Nov MSFT and AAPL out of the money options. I was totally whiped out and I mean clean. Oh well. It is just money right? I definitely should of been watching the Nas and Djia which I didn’t realize were trending down until my older sister told me why she thought the market was going down. It came to me so unexpected, but I guess I should of expected the exception happening. I’ve been heavily deep into watching technology industry charts that this sudden crash just got me. I’ve already taken $1000 to $10,000 many times so I’m pretty confident I can do it again with the market falling so hard playing some Puts and then waiting for it to stop and play call options on AAPL and RIMM all the way back up to their 52 week high’s. Apple (AAPL currently at $156!) is still a great company with everything going for it. New awesome sleek products going into international markets and selling many iPhones its new product everyone wants. Oh, and did I say christmas and iPods? I have good reason for it to go back up in price after tech has been sold off but it will be a little while before that happens. I find analyst are suddenly bearish on Google (GOOG @ $642!). Why? This stock is major growth power and low peg of 1.30. If GOOG drops to the $600’s which it probably will with a PEG near 1.00 that stock will become a major buying opportunity. It is just too bad options cost so dang much. I probably could only afford way out of the money for $1000. I’m still rooting on Apple.

So because of this disaster. I’ve lost my total account basically around $26,000 within 1 week when stocks started to fall after dumb Cisco’s report (CSCO). I definitely should of just took out my winnings and paid off some crap or bought another house. I guess I keep learning the hard way. It isn’t easy being so risky sometimes. I will not be able to buy off my note for $35,000.

A person just gave me another offer of $105,000 for my single family home so I’m going to take it. That will give me a $35,000 profit after owning it/renting it out for almost 3 years. So this will go as my down payment through a 1031 tax exchange for the bigger mobile home park for $190,000. I ending mortgage was around $58,000 so after all the costs I should have at least I hope $40,000 applied to the commercial mortgage. I could also of refinanced my current mortgage, kept the incoming rent of $725/month, and took out an equity loan of around $50,000 for the down payment on another 20-30 year note. This was also an option, but I figured if I only have to worry about 1 payment at a time this is better even though my currenter is pretty good about making all her payments. So now I will have to mobile home park mortgages. My first park in Savannah is getting there. We are finally getting some better renters and hopefully I will get it fully rented earning around $2000/month which is my goal. As for the second park my goal is to keep the gross at around $4500. After all bills I want to be earning at least a net profit of $24,000 year. So no matter what I’ll have a decent income even if I have not made consistant money in the stock market. I think my goal now is to just pay off my real estate so the cashflow will get higher.

As for the stock market. Well I’m all in with $1000 as soon as I find the right play.