Paul Meyer's Beginner Investor Blog

market had strong pull back but still generally moving up

Posted in trading stock options by PauL MeYer on April 23, 2009

Watching AAPL’s stock it shows that Monday was just a pullback. I’m sure Indie Mac’s bank CFO’s suicide stirred up the market some. I suppose feeling guilty for receiving so much money, undeserved, can kill you (plus with all the other hate phone calls). Rest his soul.

I only have 4 more months to go for my 1 year of not trading. I feel I might have to push it back further just so I can get an increased amount of practice trading in before I actually start trading real money again. I think I may not even have money at that point to trade….so it can’t hurt me because missed money is better than lost money.

I can’t believe I’m heading to Louisville, KY to live. Wow.

I’m psyched about Apple (AAPL @ $120) earnings in June 09′ it will likely shoot the stock up if very good news.

noteable stocks – apple (aapl), wells fargo (wfc), citigroup (c)

Posted in Apple Inc. (AAPL) fan, apple inc stock, spicy pickle, spicypickle.com by PauL MeYer on March 18, 2009

Some notable stocks I’ve been journaling over the past few weeks are:

Apple (AAPL @ $100) – up 10% and stock price has held above $80 since the economy got worse.

Wells Fargo (WFC @ $14.50) – Since Warren Buffett made some positive comments on it saying investors will be surprised by better earnings (plus I should mention the positive news on Citigroup) the stock is up 40%.

Citigroup Bank (C @ 2.50) – Positive news on profit in 2009 and on since biggest plunge 3/6 stock is up 100% and will likely continue to climb.

Spicy Pickle (SPKL @ .20) – Not really super big news buzz worthy but for a really really little guy this companies “image” and confidence might make it the next Panera Bread/Star Bucks/Quiznos. They aren’t waiting on the economy to get better they are being innovative and open thinking taking action now to still grow and build their business.

-fn

Data on recent option trades going into april earnings

My two recent option plays:

Symbol: .QQQEX
Description: QQQQ MAY 50 Call
Stock: QQQQ at 44.13
Action: Bought To Open
Quantity: 30 contract(s)
Price: $0.14
Commission: $45.00
Reg Fees: $0.00
Net Amt: $465.00

bought qqqq’s because I think heavily nasdaq tech stocks are ready for a run into april earnings.
also on the weekly chart the stock rsi is about to cross over and stock looks to move up big

Symbol: .APVEI
Description: AAPL MAY 145 Call
Stock: AAPL at 143.22
Action: Bought To Open
Quantity: 3 contract(s)
Price: $9.95
Commission: $14.95
Reg Fees: $0.00
Net Amt: $2,999.95

bought aapl calls going into late april earnings call + big news on new iPhone which will be annouced in June 08. will likely sell calls before earnings then rebuy calls after earnings going into the new iPhone annoucement. also charts in my opinion show a real U shaped bottom reversal moving up on daily charts, weekly stock rsi has already crossed going up. 2 white soldiers on weekly breaking downtrend.

Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS @ $32) up 7% since my last post.

Dicks Sporting Goods stores (DKS @ $32) stock price is up 7% from after I reported on its earnings. The sporting goods retail stock has been slipping with all the other major giant retailers such as Sears Holding (SHLD @ $112) and Macy’s (M @ $30). Since earnings it has risen about $2 after being upgraded the second day after earnings by Citigroup (C @ $31). Practicing the play on options/real trade you would of made a 75% ROI on JAN 30 CALLS for DKS. Bought around $2 and sold around $3.50. Of course you would of traded this if you had your head screwed on straight and were not in demolishing belittling DEC 30 PUTS for Apple Inc. (AAPL @ $171.50) up probably 6 pts from where I bought the PUTS which are going to $0. Yes – yes – yes the likely hood that I could of took a small loss, well big to most people, at -$300 on a $1000 trade (-30%). I’m currently at a value of $250 for my 10 contracts. I think Apple is a hot company, but I was 100% sure this second run one the last until the New Year. I was definitely wrong. I think I need to take a long break from trading any stock. Even a majority of my stock practice plays are failing. I’ve also noticed all my very short-term plays (in and out within 1 1/2 day) for the most part 90% work earning an average of around 5-10% per trade because the stock market is currently going up and down so much that by the 4-7th day in my option practice trade my options intrinsic value is becoming less and less even if the stock is going my way. Something I think is what makes Dick’s Sporting Goods a “hot pick” that is bound to go up is because its brand name is advertised all over ESPN’s basketball and football games. It’s subconsciously telling little boys and girls all over the world to buy from Dick’s. I have a Dicks Sporting Goods in my hometown of Virginia Beach and I have to admit its really simple nice store with a very good selection priced for the average consumer.

Conclusions: Well my DEC PUT is good until December 21st so I have a little less than 30 days for Apple Inc. stock basically to fall to around $150 to become profitable and sell out. I am 100% against depositing money into my account. I just “feel” like I am going to lose it! And any trader’s book says if you feel like you are not 100% confident about your trade you probably should not be trading and likely to lose. I know I have better trading skills then what I have been actually putting out. I need to put more research into trading a stock – before I trade a stock. Currently trades I consider won’t work to practice on ARE WORKING so I know it isn’t 100% my error either. The market is definitely a bit nutty with all this bad credit mortgage news and thriving tech companies.

Below is a 55 minute chart of DKS to show movement:
DKS 55 minute chart
(Click on to enlarge)