Market moving up again during July 09′ earnings.

For the majority of companies earnings have been better than expected (duh). When analyst make price targets so low and earnings low because they think consumers aren’t buying suddenly it looks like companies are doing really great. Well, in my opinion they are and they aren’t. One of my most followed stocks, Apple Inc, is doing quite well. It seems everybody has an iPhone these days and all those other look alike’s just aren’t the same as the iPhone. It’s just awesome. Do I have one? Nope. I’m too cheap, but will likely get one in Jan 10′ when I can get the upgrade cheaper and hopefully by then prices will come down again. I’ve predicted Apple’s stock from $105 to $130, then from $136-120 drop, then predicted its $135-159 price move just recently. I can’t wait to trade it once I feel my practicing is up to par. I plan to heavily practice trade in August. I do expect the stock to fall again. I did think this summer’s move was pretty large in comparison to other summers and I guess it makes sense with most prices extremely low compared to their PE/earnings. So I suppose real estate prices will follow the market as soon as everyone’s emotions get really optimistic again. I do hear a lot of positive comments on channels like CNBC which is a good sign that the main stream is saying “buy” softly. I’m a bit surprised with RIMM not following AAPL. Usually it mimics everything the stock does.

Hit my first stock target price prediction on Southwestern Energy Company (SWN) @ $41

SWN yesterday hit $41 and just today pulled back as typical, but definitely on a moving force. I believe the last time I spoke last week it was over $35.  What a great call option play, but I’ll have MY day and as long as I keep up with my numbers I should be more ready this fall.  It might just work out for me this time with the market poised to turn harder up with all of Fed. Bernanke’s talkin-the-talk, rumors being spread, some mediocre better numbers on economic reports, and stocks finally moving back up leaving their steeply discounted prices.  It bothers me a bit.  I admit it, I want to trade so bad.  I have to resist the powers and keep my promise to myself….man these months discipling myself not to trade have been hard.  I get these voices saying, “come on this one will work, you’ve been waiting for it, it will only be one trade…” I have to resist the evil within.  I’m sure it means fun and good intentions in it’s own evil mysterious universal ways but I need to stick to my big guns and keep them strapped in just a bit longer.

There will ALWAYs be trades in the future, big moves, small moves, and no moves.  Everyday the stock market goes up and down, sidways, and life goes on.  Today I’m a trader, tomorrow, and for the rest of my life.

I WILL MAKE LARGE PROFITS OFF YOU SWN, AAPL, NUE, GOOG, SPWR, FSLR, GME, and housing stocks your time is near!  You better be afraid market makers of this big Clint Eastword city slicker trader!  Be very afraid I will come back the Green Giant!

Other news on stocks – General Motors (GM) 1:100 reverse stock split.  What a joke.  NOW THATS A PUT OPTION PLAY!  This stock when it goes from $2 to $200 (your money cut in half) will start selling like girl scout cookies.  Oh, the put option on that baby will be one fat profit play mark my words.  ill do an update on it a few weeks after its split.  reverse stock splits are the worse.

Southwestern Energy – a surprise? SWN up 10% at $38

SWN today after earnings released popped up 10% at $38. It is surprised because the earnings although a positive qtr showed a loss. Both articles I read sounded more bearish then bullish. My theory is some big institutions sold out of the stock making it rise much higher. If I’m correct it should start to simmer and fall within the next week or two after the buzz is gone from the sudden increase in price. I haven’t done much earnings research lately so its possible SWN just pops during this earnings time frame or its on its second time down likely past its low of $21.

I can’t really figure what investors think of the earnings yet so I’ll be watching Southwestern Energy Company closely.

AAPL holds at $125 as well as X @ $26. Steel hasn’t much done anything at all except sit on it’s ass. I think once the economy turns steel stocks will be big bargins and big profit growth stocks. WFC @ $20 still. This stock is moving and I think it will go past $25 next.

noteable stocks – apple (aapl), wells fargo (wfc), citigroup (c)

Some notable stocks I’ve been journaling over the past few weeks are:

Apple (AAPL @ $100) – up 10% and stock price has held above $80 since the economy got worse.

Wells Fargo (WFC @ $14.50) – Since Warren Buffett made some positive comments on it saying investors will be surprised by better earnings (plus I should mention the positive news on Citigroup) the stock is up 40%.

Citigroup Bank (C @ 2.50) – Positive news on profit in 2009 and on since biggest plunge 3/6 stock is up 100% and will likely continue to climb.

Spicy Pickle (SPKL @ .20) – Not really super big news buzz worthy but for a really really little guy this companies “image” and confidence might make it the next Panera Bread/Star Bucks/Quiznos. They aren’t waiting on the economy to get better they are being innovative and open thinking taking action now to still grow and build their business.

-fn

-41% on recent plays – Apple changing status to a downtrend stock? First Solar flipping to the upside now?

Wow. What a confusing market. As soon as I think the markets are stabilizing they do some crazy stuff and caught off guard. Tuesday the Fed lowered the interest rates which was assumed would happen by the market. If it didn’t happen then would the market be tanking right now? I think lower interest rates are good. Personally, if the rates went below 5% I would definitely refinance. On the main page of the Honolulu Advertiser newspaper it said “rush to refinance” I see this as a mega plan for failing mortgage companies to become cash king giants again. Remember every refinanced mortgage they do they earn fat commissions. If within the year more people are buying because of lowered interest rates which means the more you can buy with less money then I’ll definitely be flipping my Hawaii condo for a real fat profit. I’m about to put another $1800 into finishing all the drywall. I figure get it done now when I do have the money so if I can’t sell it within a few years (some major markets chaos) then at least I can rent it well because it looks new.

My bad plays were Apple (AAPL) and First Solar (FSLR). Apple predicts a halt in sales I think this is going to make this stock drop drop drop until Steve Jobs their savior says something different or they come out with something more innovative and new. As for First Solar there was tons of bad news on the company and charts showed it still falling. Then it goes up 20 pts. This week commodities have done quite well. If I would have sold out of my options Tuesday the majority of all my options going into the fed decision rallied and I would have been in the plus likely for all of them. It just shows what one day and one news story can do when trading within days using call and put options.

I’m definitely changing status on AAPL options. Likely will be practicing shorting it with put options here on. Also after a big day yesterday the second day usually lets some gains go. So practice selling today probably wasn’t the best day. 2 days in the trade would have been the best.

see results: (click to enlarge)

my big 2009 stock picks – new option practice trades going into new year

hello. how has your stock trading been going these days? currently I’m reading the Dick Davis Dividend. a big fat book with a lot of “i don’t knows” in it. i’m about only 30 pages in to it. definitely a slow read and waiting for the good stuff. i’ve never known a writer so interested in summer camp. i couldn’t stand the ones i was a counselor at so i suppose its how much you dig it.

for my 2009 big stock picks (For myself):

i have a strong conviction that X Steel (X) currently at $38 is going back up up up. it just recently broke its downtrend and slow like a crater tippy toeing back up. i could be wrong and like mr. davis “i don’t know” because there are so many “ifs” in the market that change circumstances, but for now if i bet my life on it i’d buy X call options and the stock (covered calls). even in a slow economy we are still building and so is many growing countries such as china and india. other stocks i see ripe are Apple (AAPL) at $98. it recently hit $110. i see everyone with an iPod and many people i know and people i meet talk about how they want to buy an apple computer. when you go into their mall show room retail stores its stuffed with helpful workers and masses of interested potential and current apple fans. i think another star is AMAT Technologies (AMAT). currently at $10 it is one of those innovative companies and with obama’s energy bill it should strike some wicked fat solar contracts. southwestern energy company (SWN) is always knocking its head with the trend. if you look at the charts its broke its trend and has been moving sideways. its currently on its low so i expect it to move past $30 again currently at $28+ a share. lastly the credit card companies Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V) are both on a tidal wave and likely profiting from this credit mess and consumers going back to credit card use not home equity for all those christmas presents this year for the kiddies. V at $52 still new to the stock market exchange is likely to move quicker past $60 i think.

for my stock trades i’m currently still up +690% since august 2008. if i would have sold out of my last option trades sooner i would have been up more but because i neglected them i lost over 130% on those trades, but that’s okay i’m back in practicing again and that is what counts. i just need to keep practicing even when I see a stock like HOKU at $2.89 and I want to be in it. the more practicing i do the closer and sooner i will get to my goal of understand my stocks better to trade them with less risk and what pisses me off the most is telling me trading in the stock market is gambling. it isn’t if you take real calculated risks which i am practicing on this year.

see recent practice trades going into new year 2009:

stocks jump off bollinger bands – FSLR expected too

I had a hunch today might jump up some after around 2 days of losses, but on the charts everything was still moving down. The only precise clear signal I saw for a real call option trade was on FSLR with it’s big red candle dipping below the BB’s and on smaller charts showing technicals moving up in the morning.

Today stocks really moved with force. I noticed on the charts and highs/lows how much of a swing there was showing major candle wick buying support/confidence. I have to admit the good thing about practice trading and figuring out which side of the trade you should be on is that you can be wrong and not lose money! Currently looking at AAPL charts on the 233 min. there is a clear picture of what happened today and likely on every chart I look at too. For the past week and half stocks have been falling and today from what I see will create a few up days or call option practice trades. Currently many of PUT trades were profitable even though they closed higher because they fell lower.

For a moment I considered staying in the Puts for tomorrow, but the right thing would be do to close them since I know stocks are about to move higher and change sides. The only ones within yesterdays practice trades that would have worked would have been ones hitting low low’s. (or +$1-2 on option)

Now, I still have my “ifs” because also on all the 55 min charts it shows each white candle getting smaller and smaller not hitting top BB’s (except AAPL). So this could also bring me to the conclusion that todays boost could be short-lived and fall again hard tomorrow. I’m going to play dcalls because the charts say a second day of upward movement, but we are still in all downtrends currently. So since I’m not playing long-term Puts I will trade what I see on a weekly basis.

See below with completed practice trades 11/12/08 and new 11/13/08 following:
SOLD

BOUGHT

new option call and put practice trade picks november 2008

Looking at my charts and current economic market conditions I came to two conclusions.

#1 The market just had a mini-rally, lost the rally, and is continuing in the major downtrend

#2 Many stocks charts show a possible “V” hitting the bottom, hitting bollinger bands on weekly big charts, which MIGHT mean a possible “W” major trend reversal may happen in the next few weeks we’ll see if that last down run will be the last at least for a while.

We’ve been in a full down down down for a full year. It’s likely possible to continue it, but stocks are at real discount prices looks at X and AKS and AAPL which its retail stores are constantly SO BUSY you’d think we were in a real bull buying consumer spending crazy type market. I also like SWN, FSLR, and QQQQ but since everything says “down more” currently I’m playing PUTS except for FSLR which is being pushed down so hard and on shorter charts shows tomorrow it will likely spike some up before moving down more. All my plays are short term likely to be out tomorrow or the following day. I find being in for just one market day increases my profit/time in play for trading options.

see trades below (currently up +700% since august on trades):

Sold call/put option practice plays – +130%

I was wrong about SWN trying to trade it against the general market while I saw everything else going down. This just shows “the trend is your friend” is the real deal. Below are my practice option trades on FSLR, GOOG, AAPL, RIMM, QQQQ, SWN, ATS.

Although on big charts shows uptrend, short-term stocks will continue to fall again

The day after the election said a lot. Basically in my opinion the markets gained so much in the past week that after election day they puked. At least in the short term on charts it looks like stocks will continue to fall some more especially RIMM, AAPL, QQQQ, FSLR, AKS, and GOOG on daily and 233 charts. The only stock I would bet against the market flow at the money is Southwestern Energy Company (SWN) with its strong momentum breaking through all major down trends currently at $37 which keeps hitting lows of $26 then popping back up to $28-31. I can see it surpassing $45 by end of November 08′ if it keeps up. Magic is happening on weekly charts right now. Real strong support hitting real lows on bottoms slowly curving up creating big U’s showing a real change in direction, but how much change and how soon?

My put option practice plays:
RIMM, AAPL, QQQQ’s, FSLR, AKS, GOOG
My call option practice play:
SWN

my practice trades for the rest of the week put and call options – ICE has a real unique chart currently showing “W” reversal.

currently the only chart that stands out from many perfectly downtrends technical charts is ICE with a plain view “W” support bullish reversal on dailly and 233 minute charts. check it out for yourself. since it’s by itself I don’t think i would trade it as a real trade just because everything is moving down so if the market keeps moving down by force it will too.

put and call option practice trades on V,AAPL,ATVI,FSLR,GOOG,HANS,RIMM,SBUX,EOG,SWN,RIG,NYX,MA,DKS,SHLD,ICE

wowzer’s -800pts drop then 500pts drop. what a perfect time if I had the money to be playing put options…

so yes…I see the market continually dropping to new lows and I’m overly anxious to jump in and play put options. the bailout plan passed through, the markets continued to fall, and now yes Fed. bernanke says the economy is just going to get weaker!!! why the heck did we just put $900 billion paid for by tax payers again?? i liked barack obama’s note on firing all the AIG executives and giving the money they got from the Fed back after going on a $400k retreat in california. this of course is while they are going bankrupt and shareholders losing lots of money. yikes.

i would play short term calls into tomorrow morning. i will post this later tonight once i check out the charts if it brings me to this decision even though overall i’d play long-term put options on just about everything. it seems to be a big see-saw downwards into a spiraling of death. kind of reminds me of 2000-2001 drop. it should drop even more. hundred dollar stocks went to 30-50’s so apple could easily come down and get beaten with google and rimm. just look at FXI and many big bank stocks.

call options plays worked +45%, RIMM drops hard after earnings release, stocks bottoming

the market seemed to get more optimistic today. warren buffet’s edgy deal profiting from Goldman Sachs (GS) couldn’t hurt. without even looking at my charts i know that congestion would be shown with stocks starting to break out. after the market today Research in Motion (RIMM) dove down on earnings. it just shows how unpredictable stocks are releasing earnings. stocks across the board are down a lot and i’m curious if investors fear more after RIMM’s -20% drop. i do know also the Republican party threw out the bailout plan Democratics were happy with. i’m sure this creates some room for panic and turbulance in the markets as well. i will likely be practicing put options tomorrow unless the bailout plan is passed through law and okayed by everyone. should Fed bernaneke really be taken serious? if he just gave “why” an answer with “facts” rather then just vague statements i think everyone would take the Fed more seriously.

see below call option plays closed today:

call option plays

SWN, RIG, NTRI remain strong. Google’s new G1 could be a hit for the stock (GOOG)

stocks seemed silent today and the day before (tue/wed) opened up high for high hopes and then were kind of let down after i suppose all the traders realized now this $700+ billion bailout will be really done by politics. that’s a laugh. it could be weeks or months if they make the decision or never, and who really believe’s fed chairman bernanke anymore? he says if we don’t do it right now then huge side effects will happen. well what if all that bad stuff really doesn’t happen and we let the loser’s lose and not get their pay package? remember, the tax payers are paying for this not the bad CEO’s walking away with their $30 million retirement package. so what to do, who will make the final decision, will their be sometype of real active plan? if i’m going to be paying for anything i sure do hope i get a part of whatever i’m buying.

i’ve been seeing strong reversal uptrend on my charts last week once investors thought the bailout would be quick. what if it isn’t quick? i could really see markets turning if a decision isn’t made. indecision, from my experience, will leave the markets in chaos. they need an answer. i hope its a good one for, EVERYONE. screw those CEO’s that made bad decisions, don’t give them any money or it is like rewarding them.

google’s new G1 could be a hit for the stock not because they are entering the phone market, but because it gets more advertising payment clicks for the company. GOOG also wants their phone to adapt the markets instead of controling it. all these things are great for innovation keeping GOOG a hot stock to watch. likely if people actually get it stock should surpass $500 again easy with all the advertising money it will receive on the mobile market.

put option practice plays – winning stocks i think that hit bottom

currently i’m trading all my favorite stocks as put option practice plays because we just had a mega short rally, the mini bubble burst, all stocks have doji evening stars, and show signs of at least short-term downtrend movement. however glancing at a few stock charts and know how much growth some stocks are STILL having i think HANS, NTRI, and AAPL are real winners and aren’t going to move much down anymore. For one thing HANS and NTRI have been stuck on the bottom for a while and they are slowly starting an uptrend. As for AAPL it has been on a bumpy ride, but going into the Christmas holiday shopping season it should have a better quarter in Jan 09′. Plus AAPL is selling millions of iPhones, regardless of a reduction in price, it is gaining growth market daily. NTRI and HANS are also at the top of Fortunes 100 fastest growing companies. NTRI has been having sour quarters, but still growing so when it does have a very good quarter the stock price could really run. ICE has a huge evening start stretching huge support and resistance on both sides. SWN and RIG are strong currently in energy sector. I think after this third top going down will be a strong support area and that will be the bottom for at least energy, excluding stocks like FSLR which I think could fall a lot more down. RIG has actually broken it’s downtrend so if SWN and RIG are positive this week I would think it is going to be the real bottom and start playing calls up.

see put option practice plays below:

put option practice trades

Currently where financial institutions are going I would keep playing it a put until things really change. It seems tax payers are really going to burn for corporate errors again instead of the companies paying for their own problems. I admit if a person bought a home they couldn’t afford and they lost it I’m okay with that. It is not the banks fault, it is the customers fault for being stupid. But when the bank screws up I do not think it is fair when the big American federal reserve bank bails them out if it isn’t going to bail out the American working class (although if they did I would want a free house too).

Energy continues to rise SWN, RIG, FSLR – Tech still losers.

So on my short call plays energy stocks SWN, RIG, and FSLR would have continued to increase in option price, but tech RIMM and AAPL continue to fall with charts. RIMM charts actually looked like it was going to spike higher, but I’m pretty sure right now AAPL is influencing on its stock. I think RIMM will take off the quickest once its out of AAPL’s shadow, yeah you heard that right. They follow each other so I wouldn’t be surprised once it wins investors over again to move much quicker past its 52 week highs with a PEG of .82

GOOG yesterday created a fat big while engulfing candle going from $400 to the $430s a big swing showing its strong and no negative news is going to shut down its optimistic growth idea thinking. it’s advertising will keep being a money machine. I wouldn’t be surprised to see GOOG swing back up past the $450’s into the $500’s again this fall as the tide increases.

We are definitely at a low low tide. So the best stocks should start to show some sunshine soon..

quick call option plays – short plays

The following stocks I’m going to try to play short call plays to see if the second day they come back with positive buying if not then the correct thing would be to continue practicing them on puts.

market continues to tank. AAPL news. dead options.

Well as anyone can see the stock market is sliding off the charts. All my charts show a continual fall unless or should I say “when” the market decides to change direction. Currently all tech and energy stocks are creating huge whammy engulfing bearish candles continually. Instead of like 3 bearish soliders its like 20-30 bearish soldiers which really makes me believe change is due sooner or later. I’m really curious what is happening with First Solar – FSLR. Man this stock has been hit hard with Google – GOOG. Both stocks have fallen around -$80 points. Talk about a killing if you were playing Put Options on both of these stocks from the start. You are talking about a small fortune.

Apple recently will have news of new products and price decreases analyst say/think. I can already assume the price will drop if they do lower prices because that lowers margines and growth in big money long-term. It isn’t like bran new products with big margins that grows the capital. Now they are lowering prices which will reflect AAPL stock price lowering. If the low this year was around $112 I believe and its currently around $159. Then if this news is all true of lowering prices even if the iPhone is a hit then buying Puts maybe the smartest action.

My current options in SWN OCT calls are dead and I’ll leave it at that. My account is back to zero. When will I ever have the discipline and be prepared to actually sell out and buy in the new direction I don’t know. Maybe when I have the time to just watch and actually take the action. Seeing these huge slides, no money to trade, and no real time just sucks. These swings are huge and option traders “should” be making money, but then again if you are wrong and you won’t admit it then you probably won’t have enough money left to trade.

Besides all that crap because it is just crap in my life not working out. I think I’m going to use all my GI Bill money for the next 3 years once I’m out to go to school full-time and since now you get BAH too I can actually stash money away in account for another real estate deal while going to school. I’m pretty psyched. Schools like www.fullsail.com and www.nyfa.com are available and fully paid for. I think it would be fun to attend. I’m also considering The Texas Culinary Academy in Austin. I want to hit a big city where I might be able to make a living somehow until my trading starts earning instead of losing. I need to stay positive damnit. I admit its hard, very hard when I just keep fucking losing, yeah. I’m pissed today.

Bought V May 85 Calls I-T-M. Thinking a soon sell-off…

I love Visa (V) and I bought 1 contract today at $4. This IPO has a higher PE + double the capitilization of Mastercard (MA) so it should surpass MA in price currently at $298! With Visa @ $86 seems very undervalued and at a bargain price now publicly offered in my opinion especially with a bigger better branded name on more credit cards.

I bought another SWN SEP 40 Call @ $6.10 (same price) so now I have two contracts with the price currently hovering around $7.50 a contract. My GTC is at $8.10 even though I want to raise it I’d rather put it in a faster moving stock like Visa.

I’ve got this subconcious feeling looking at some over inflated stock price charts that some big stocks are ready to sell-off by investors taking a breather and dealing with other factors such as their homes falling in price such as First Solar, Bidu, and Google. Yeah, I know major growth stocks with good stories, but my daily and weekly charts seem to indicate engulfing bearish candles and if within reason (week) or so they don’t move up much higher then they should follow the current down trend further down. I would short them, but I’ve been burned way too many times losing money. So until I see a big break in trend or big move I will not listen to my gutt and instead not trade the stocks at all to be safe then sorry.

I’m extremely confident that AAPL, SWN, and V will continue a strong uptrend with of course dips and pull backs in the markets, but will go UP without reason for big reasons that are making the stocks $$$.

My order on V MAY 85 Calls:
5/6/2008 10:45:47 AM (ET):
Symbol: .VEQ
Description: V MAY 85 Call
Stock: V at 86.93
Action: Bought To Open
Quantity: 1 contract(s)
Price: $4.00
Commission: $14.95
Reg Fees: $0.00
Net Amt: $414.95

GTC @ $8 +100% <— Goal time within 3-7 days

NTRI APR 2008 CALLS sold out with positive news on stock

I was lucky and that’s about it with a big news piece on Nutrisystems getting a new CEO and saying new revenue will be much more positive. This news brought the stock up 25% from $15 up to $19.90. My options were sold out right over $19 so I was very fortunate to take a small loss and get sold out before they expired.

Symbol: .NSIDD
Description: NTRI APR 20 Call
Stock: NTRI at 19.74
Action: Sold To Close
Quantity: 2 contract(s)
Price: $1.00
Commission: $14.95
Reg Fees: $0.01
Net Amt: $185.04

Still in positions for AAPL MAY & QQQQ MAY 2008 Calls. Currently up 50% in AAPL calls.
A strong trend is building in Apple after the new iPhone annoucement and lots of positive news on all the earnings the company is making.

oops I did it again – bought AAPL MAY 145 Calls & QQQQ MAY 50 Calls

So I was watching the market and felt on these two stocks the timing was right to buy calls. If this rally is fake I will be eating dirt for the rest of the year. Both AAPL and QQQQ had promising technicals, but then again technicals have lied to me in the past so I’m watching my back for any breaks that should not happen. In general GOOG and AAPL are going into earnings in the mid 20’s of April 2008. Last years chart for AAPL started a reversal around now after dropping hard after earnings. PLUS!!!! BIG NEWS BIG STORY on Apple is the new iPhone going to be presented in June 2008. What happened for last years iPhone???? Oh, only the stock went up 100% in about 3 months INTO the iPhone release. So I plan to sell out before earnings then buy Jul 08 calls after earnigs on AAPL. QQQQ is just a less risky play that follows all of the heavy rich tech nasdaq stocks like AAPL and GOOG so if AAPL pushes so should tech and QQQQ’s. That is my thought so “oops I did it again” just lucky a smart choice with a motive behind it.

peace =-)

Btw India business is GREAT!!! I could possibly be semi-retired by 2009 with the choice I made. From what I hear we are helping a telecommunications company and will receive 15% of the profits for the life of the business. I’m pysched. My sailboat is still hurten. I finally finished renovating the front berthing so I actually have a bed now. I wall mounted my computer screen so its a sweet setup now to watch the market laying in bed.

Apple (AAPL) reversal chart, India business revenue, SEO for keikisitters.com

So AAPL looks like a shiney sweet reversal play in my opinion. On the 3 month chart on Finace.yahoo.com shows definitely upward movement breaking the major trend and the price hitting $140 says a lot about the character and personality of the stock that it will be moving much higher much quicker. I don’t know this for 100% sure, but from other stocks I’ve watched right now with all this new merger/buyout/fed news stocks are ready to make a little run. I plan to buy AAPL Jul 160-200 Calls. My SWN 55 PUTs expired to $0 even though the stock hit $56. I also didn’t get sold out at .25 when it hit my order. It must have been quick. My NTRI options are still in play but $0 right now. I really don’t know what to expect from that stock. I made some shitty decisions that turned out into worst decisions when I chose not to sell my options at a loss now a full loss. I’m telling myself to buy Apple because its been beaten down and its still a rich stock full of postive stories although I am seeing a loss of favoritism in their iPhone projects. People that were once big on getting them now can download the program to make their own phone like a Blackberry (RIMM) phone into an iPhone. I’m thinking the same. I checked it out. It’s cool and all but I can get a neat blackberry that turns into the iPhone for $100 and save $400. Sooooooo as soon as I see a decent pull back in AAPL’s stock from the weekly move that went from $120’s to $140’s. I’m going to buy my options with months and months in advance. Since the stock is expensive getting to buy them in-the-money might not happen, but I’m going to try with what I just deposited of my $3500 worth of rental income for the past 5 months. It is my personal trading mission to make my money back to continue trading with $1,000 into $100,000.

As for my india business venture called Meyer & Ryan International Corporation has won 2 major bids creating over $5000 of revenue for our first month in business. We may profit about half that I think. I’ll probably won’t see my income from it for a while. We are making good contact by using Skype and e-mail. It would be awesome to continually generate $5000-10000 a month from these major computer projects and also soon more staffing income from recruiting.

Lastly I’ve been helping out a lot with Keikisitters.com doing free SEO marketing on the site and giving the owner pointers on where to go with it. I don’t know if she will take my advice and experience or not, but I’m not making a penny. After recently doing a lot of working on figuring out how to profit on her website for her I’ve come to the conclusion that I either #1 need to become a direct competition and start my own babysitting online service or #2 ensure she includes me in a contract on the future company profits. I’ve been broke too long and I really help too many other people in their lives. I’m just waiting for one person really to motivate and help me! =D Well that’s enough of my complaining. I hope she enjoys her high traffic site with my expert marketing tactics.

chao. – fn

new stock chart trends updated (right – CHART TRENDS)

I’ve uploaded about 20 of the stocks I watch daily, where the trend I think it is going, and commentary on the chart for my reference to see if I was right or wrong for future new charts.

charts updated: (put curser over chart picture and it will give name of stock)
aapl, atvi, rimm, goog, bidu, fxi, dks, hans, hoku, rig, swn, inp, ttm, ma, c, and more.

new trend chart technical analysis for January 11, 2008 stocks

I’ve got the time to upload some new trend charts I’m studying to see them just click on the flickr trend picture column or click here to see my flickr page of all my trend charts.

trend charts include: AAPL, ATVI, C, DKS, FXI, HOKU, HANS, MA, INP, TTM, YHOO, GOOG, RIG, SWN, RIMM

check out INP. I’ve seen this stock go from $48 to now $112. Like FXI I think it still has much room to grow with small downs and big moves up with India’s major growth. I believe TTM will start to follow india stocks with its new plan for $2500 car.

check out AAPL. will it get support at current price levels ($172)? major trend will be breached soon if Mac Expo 08′ and earning on january 18th do not give investors reasons to keep charging the stock up. If you look at any other tech stock right now BIDU, GOOG, RIMM charts show in favor of major downtrend to form if negative opinions continue on the economy.

btw – only 70 pages left of Alan Greenspans book! great book and very insightful.

sold out of HOKU call option up +100% – in AAPL call option on big dip

I successfully sold out of HOKU JAN 15 Calls @ .80 (bought at .40). It is currently trading at $1.00-1.50 which was where my initial GTC order was at but I reduced my sell price to get out of it quicker. Currently in AAPL JAN 220 CALL at .90. I would of liked to buy it at the end of the day down -14pts at around .50, but I don’t have that favorable time to wait, so I bought in it down -6pts at $190 at .90. My current GTC order is up .50 cents at $1.40 in stead of up $1.00 more. My plan is for it to bounce back up to $200 to sell me out quickly in the process going into 2008 mac expo and earnings Jan 18.

now for a complaint. something I usually don’t do. i officially dislike Wells Fargo banking customer service. I want to go to their call center and fart until my face is blue, then punch them all, then close out my account. They make it incredibly hard for a military member who goes to many port calls to take a block off a credit card and checking account. They know the account holder is active military on a ship although they treat you like a theft criminal. I’m like “you fucking bastards, if I was a theft I wouldn’t know everything I’m telling you, sorry I don’t know my account number I never have, but here is everything else, where I am, and all my current balances”. Those bastards piss me off. Well they prevented a bill from being paid, a storage bill, so now I have to send a bill pay check from another bank just to pay it so my shit doesn’t get auctioned off while on a patrol PROTECTING THEIR FUCKING ASSHOLES. as you can see this stresses me a bit out. well cheers!

Trailer parks, stocks (HOKU scientific), and assasinations

Pakistani President being assassinated with riots afterwards. I’m not so surprised. Do even Americans care? Do we? Is it just another scare tactic? Another cover-ups for something else? I don’t know who to trust these days, particular not the news. It definitely made a hit on our financial markets with our major averages down -1% today.

The only stock holding up in the positive was Apple Inc (AAPL @ $202). Impressive. Its new blockbuster deal with Fox to sell more selection of movies on its iTunes is really going to boost the stock price up into the Mac Expo Jan 14th then earnings I believe Jan 18th. My price target I think it will hit is at least $220. Up another 10%. I think we could see $300 or a big stock split by next year.

Another wild stock is HOKU Scientific (HOKU @ $11.81). Currently down around -7%, but it had a major run up of +20% so I’d expect some pull back. It made another BIG white candle showing there is major support and it is ready to move higher then $15 in my opinion and what I see on the charts. If it holds above $11.50 today I think we will see it hitting $15 first week of January 2008 and I will be sold out of my Jan 15 Call options up around +200% or more. I’ve been trading HOKU since around $9 then to $12 sold, then bought at $10.58 and waiting for it to move higher with my options to sell at a good price.

Trailer park news is in. The previous owner who sold it to me first offered me $3000 to buy it back. I Negotiated $7000 then we met at $5000. So I did it. Okay it didn’t work out. I probably lost around $15000 on the deal. What’s new? Well nothing new besides no girlfriends, no luxuries, no nice bachelor pad, or paid off debt to pursue my business ventures until I get one that sticks and works well. Some people might feel irritated or mad about this, I just gulp it down, and thank God already for when something really does happen for since I know it will. Just when? I’ve been reading the Bible lately. I don’t know if this has affected the owner actually offering me money to buy it back or not. In a weird way I feel I lucked out not just offering it back to him to get rid of the ongoing loss. This is the way I look at this: I’ve owned the park for around 6 months and made a total of $1500, lost a total of around $22000 (this includes initial down payment of $10,000 + $4200 worth of mortgage payments + $7000 worth of repairs and renovations). I’m only getting +$5000 back, but if I hold onto it for another 6 months with the little tenants I have an keep incurring bills I will actually lose another $6-7000. So in retrospective if I sell it back to him now and accept +$5000 I’d actually be gaining really +$12000 back. I look at this as a losing stock. I can either cut my losses now while I can see the picture and its not earning me any money and continually since I’m not there I have no control over getting the units rented or I can keep it and continually lose more and more money that I could of applied to pay off existing debt. I think my biggest problem here was that they were small trailers instead of single or double wides. About 1 month after I bought the park it hit me hard. Then again, with my risky investment ideas, I take full responsibility for buying the park without seeing it, without inspecting the trailers, and over valuating it. I guess I learned another hard lesson in my seventh year of continual business losses.

So now that the park is done for and I can move on with my life I plan to take any money I have left and apply to my car loan and pay it off first. Student loans second, and then put the rest in a savings account. If I do buy another piece of real estate it will strictly be a single family home or duplex. I found that even though buying a mobile home park can be very profit worthy, unless I am there to maintain it, advertise it, and do most of the repairs it will become more of a burden then improvement in my business ventures. I suppose I learn best by doing. Most people teach or talk about doing something their entire life, but never do it. I actually do it. So I guess I can expect more hardships and wise lessons.

Choppy fall markets continue with late day sell offs and rollercoasters!

So I’m in San Diego, CA on my north patrol portal. This is my first of many I suppose if our boat keeps working. The stock market has been ruff as usually simular to Alaska waters. I uploaded many technical analysis on stocks charts so be sure to see them (flickr pics on right side).

So I’m thinking after looking at many charts that the markets trend is still going down.

My practice option trading would go something like this: [short term plays]

BUYING CALLS on:
Southwestern Energy Company (SWN @ $49) – hitting bottom BB’s with strong trend up with raising oil prices increasing more popularity for energy to increase.
GameStop Co. (GME @ $51) – following strong uptrend and has been sold off even though it is the number one electronics game retailer. Every kid, teenager, and dad goes to this store to buy new and used games. It’s hot, and going into christmas its sales should increasingly rise.

BUYING PUTS on:
Apple Inc. (AAPL @ $172) – Hot product, high price, but currently tech and the entire market makes this stock so vulnerable to any move and I think the next move will be down.
Sears Holding Co. (SHLD @ $107) – Super company, lowering peg, but it seems retail just isn’t the industry to be buying in at the moment. Big downtrends and probably will see lower prices before buying happens.
Macy’s (M @ $28) – Again. Mega store everyone knows, but not in the buying club at the moment. Is anything? Low peg, lots of value, but no buying into it.
Goldman Sachs (GS @ $207) – This financial stock even though has losses is one of the better value you ones that won’t be held down for too long. Low peg of .70, low PE, but the banking stocks are just in crutches. The only banking stock I think should outperform all the others besides losses is Bearsterns (BSC @ $91) because its book/price is $86. I think it will keep bouncing off this support price. Peg currently at 1.06. I think this is the best play if buying CALLS. BSC will be the first to back to its highs, at least I think.
Citigroup (C @ $31) – This stock is going to its grave in my opinion. Mega huge banking system that I feel hasn’t got credit for the billions it has lost yet. But nothing can beat Country Wide financial (CFC @ $8) – This thing is going to $1 in my opinion. Mega PUT stock. You could probably get rich playing PUTS on it if you were smart and had money left to trade.
Google (GOOG @ $666) – Note the price! Scary huh? Stock charts show GOOG flipping over and about to be sold, at least short term. Peg is 1.26 not bad for a $600 stock which really says something, its going higher!
Nutri Systems Inc (NTRI @ $25) – This stock just has big pops (big white canldes) and then tanks. Sell offs. Funny thing is that its peg is like only .36 or something right now. IF IF IF it proves still to have good growth next quarter this stock is going to jump probably 30-50% in one day. Sounds crazy, but I could see it happening being sold off like an ugly stock now, but it is also getting all these lawsuit cases which probably isn’t helping publicity to want to buy it either.
Mastercard (MA @ $181) – Hot stock, super product. They basically just make millions a day off dumb consumers spending credit cards and never paying them off. I’m really not sorry if you are one of them. You have a choice, which is why this stock is going higher, but in the mean time it looks like it is being sold off some.
Ocean Outrigger (RIG @ $129) – RIG looks ready to fall some. Major growth and long-term CALL play in my opinion with rising oil prices.
Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS @ $30) – recent +7% just went to 0%. Falling charts makes this a short-term PUT play. Lots of Tv advertising you should be noticing especially on ESPN. They want to be a number one sports retailer and they are doing the right things to get there and stay there for a while.
China International Index Fund (FXI @ $168) – This stock has been falling and will continue to with the markets/asia markets. Charts show more selling coming.

Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS @ $32) up 7% since my last post.

Dicks Sporting Goods stores (DKS @ $32) stock price is up 7% from after I reported on its earnings. The sporting goods retail stock has been slipping with all the other major giant retailers such as Sears Holding (SHLD @ $112) and Macy’s (M @ $30). Since earnings it has risen about $2 after being upgraded the second day after earnings by Citigroup (C @ $31). Practicing the play on options/real trade you would of made a 75% ROI on JAN 30 CALLS for DKS. Bought around $2 and sold around $3.50. Of course you would of traded this if you had your head screwed on straight and were not in demolishing belittling DEC 30 PUTS for Apple Inc. (AAPL @ $171.50) up probably 6 pts from where I bought the PUTS which are going to $0. Yes – yes – yes the likely hood that I could of took a small loss, well big to most people, at -$300 on a $1000 trade (-30%). I’m currently at a value of $250 for my 10 contracts. I think Apple is a hot company, but I was 100% sure this second run one the last until the New Year. I was definitely wrong. I think I need to take a long break from trading any stock. Even a majority of my stock practice plays are failing. I’ve also noticed all my very short-term plays (in and out within 1 1/2 day) for the most part 90% work earning an average of around 5-10% per trade because the stock market is currently going up and down so much that by the 4-7th day in my option practice trade my options intrinsic value is becoming less and less even if the stock is going my way. Something I think is what makes Dick’s Sporting Goods a “hot pick” that is bound to go up is because its brand name is advertised all over ESPN’s basketball and football games. It’s subconsciously telling little boys and girls all over the world to buy from Dick’s. I have a Dicks Sporting Goods in my hometown of Virginia Beach and I have to admit its really simple nice store with a very good selection priced for the average consumer.

Conclusions: Well my DEC PUT is good until December 21st so I have a little less than 30 days for Apple Inc. stock basically to fall to around $150 to become profitable and sell out. I am 100% against depositing money into my account. I just “feel” like I am going to lose it! And any trader’s book says if you feel like you are not 100% confident about your trade you probably should not be trading and likely to lose. I know I have better trading skills then what I have been actually putting out. I need to put more research into trading a stock – before I trade a stock. Currently trades I consider won’t work to practice on ARE WORKING so I know it isn’t 100% my error either. The market is definitely a bit nutty with all this bad credit mortgage news and thriving tech companies.

Below is a 55 minute chart of DKS to show movement:

(Click on to enlarge)

Markets jump on HPQ share buyback, but what about all the other bad news?

I’m a bit blown away how the market pops open so high, to trade higher, then fall, and finally to look like a last buy back in. The market sure is choppy for the fall time. The majority of the PUT positions I practiced on Monday actually sold out by the end of the day profitable 10-30% up then closing negative. Apple for instance – if you check out the charts it shows many doji-spinner stars showing indecision. The stock doesn’t know to go up or down, but from the fundamentals, 50-day MA, 200-day MA, and current trend it could be moving down much further soon, or at least this is what I believe especially during December.

The last 30 minutes the market shooted up then suddenly sold off I guess the last 10 minutes of that 30 minutes of the day. My predictions would be that the market will drop lower tomorrow if it was a quick sell off because the Fed’s say, “hey the economy still is having slow growth” + Oil going to higher levels + bad home constructions and sales + did I say unemployment is predicted to raise because of the slower growth. Remember when you have slow growth or slow sales especially in the resturant industry you need to start letting people off their usual shifts early. If the store is selling it can’t keep its workers on the clock if the sales are coming in to use the labor. This is just plain economical common sense. So it does make sense that unemployment should rise if sales are down, construction is down, retail sales are down, because employers should be cutting hours short or laying off workers.

Recession? Likely, but technology is still growing getting positive results. Retail is very much sold off way below 50-day and 200-day averages with favorable PEG scores even if earnings are slow (SHLD @ $111 and M @ $28). So I don’t think recession is coming yet, but cycles are starting to change. The Fed can’t keep cutting rates forever and will likely soon raise them probably next year to manage inflation because currently with super low rates we are generating stagflation with slow growth. I maybe wrong, but at least in textbooks usually after the 4th cut on interest rates then rates will start to rise again. Some Financial stocks are really favorable right now (GS @ $212 – PEG of .69 and BSC @ $93 – PEG of 1.10 and book/sales price of $86, it is almost worth its BOOK PRICE!)

As for my options. My DEC 125 AAPL Puts are down around -60%. Not good. It will probably be my last trade for a long time. So if it doesn’t work and Apple Inc. doesn’t fall then I think I will be just practice trading for a good year or until the entire market down trends with a firm trend and the indecision is gone and the decision to SELL SELL SELL in investors eyes will be common commentary on Yahoo! Finance’s frontpage.

For the Monster Energy Drink Investor – Hansen (HANS) stock report

I did a minor report on what I thought of Hansen Foods Co. (HANS @ $41.52) about a year ago. Many people search HANS and find my blog and read it so I thought I’d post again on the Monster Energy drink trend innovator. First Monster energy drinks are still a hit. My rack on the ship is full of the Monster Kaos fruit energy drink including my favorite Red Bull. I thought it was a super buy at around $33 trending up and it was. You would of made at least +17pts or almost 40% ROI. Now HANS @ $41.52 still looks like a great growth play on a winning company that wins over youth and sports activities, but although it has a favorable PEG Ratio score of .80 well below a value considered stock of 1.00 its trend is definitely moving down with the market so I wouldn’t say buy up just quite yet until the market has clearly bottomed out. Somebody wrote on a stock forum “not to catch a falling knife when falling” a teacher taught me that too. At times I’ve tried to catch that falling knife only to lose thousands of dollars and have a miserable weekend. HANS’s F/ PE is around 20 not as high as its PE of 32. I think it could fall somewhat more.

Recently I’ve been having debates over where the market is going to go. To tell anyone I have no clue. I’m just watching it as it comes, but what I do see is major support wicks on the bearish and bullish sides depending on what stocks I’ve looked at. For most I see spinners meaning indecisiveness/uncertainty. For the most park the major peak came in October 07′ and now a second smaller peak has occured just this week and stocks continuted to fall afterwards meaning the stock market in general should move much lower again before created a “W” type correction. If anything I’ve learned from any teacher is that the next 2 years should be all down with a few bullish runs, but small. So is HANS a BUY? Maybe since it isn’t a tech stock it could move up with positive news and performing earnings reports, but if it is like Apple (AAPL @ $166) that falls or goes up to just about any major news that comes out then it might be falling back to the $30’s once again which in a year or two would be a super BUY. I really consider looking at charts and seeing where the DJIA and NAS are going before buying it even if you are a big fan of the energy drink and company.

Until the big exchanges and averages start changing direction I would play PUTS on just about anything. There are some stock splits coming up so I might be playing CALLS on these two which are BWA and DE.