stock market correction = uptrending

If you are a stock market follower you’d notice the different wording journalist are using such as “optimistic” that we hit our low just recently last Thursday Aug 16 to be exact. I was watching the market as AAPL was hitting $112’s and NYX was hitting $65’s. I was drawing my support lines because after the big red candle dropped a big white candle stood right next to it top to bottom and went right up with buyers looking for a golden opportunities. Since I’m still a student I really did not know which direction the market would go. On Friday stocks popped higher creating a doji star showing the market made up its mind. So now for the past almost 6 days the market has ran up with white candles breaking the downward trend since July 15th. I’m currently in AAPL JAN 200 CALLS up around 30% in my options +$3000 in 2 business days. I’m not going to sell at some crazy high number, but I am going to follow the major uptrend line until it is broken or bad news comes out, other wise I’m stick to my play. I’m very confident in Apple and until their next earnings call I’m going to trade it up to earnings or until I’m happy with my profit. I’d also love to be in SHLD and RIG Calls, but I’ve been taught to be in only one trade at a time even if there are other opportunities available. I need to stick to the rules and show some discipline or I’m never going to become a great trader.

Currently I’ve been looking at a trailor park to buy for $190,000. I’ve talked to many experts in this field and the price looks very good for what I’m getting which would be an 18 lot, 2.37 acre, with 18 park owned homes rented for $350-450 each, with all utilities established. It is around 20 minutes away from University of eastern Tennessee (Johnson City, TN). I’d really like to do the deal, but I want to get an outside property manager if I buy it. This is the advice I’ve gotten basically to get rid of any favoritism within the park. It would make some serious cashflow to my real estate portfolio. Between the 2 trailor parks I will eventually be receiving around a $50k net income a year more than my U.S. Coast Guard income so it would finally give me the choice of retirement at age 29. I still want to be a great trader, but it would give me choice even if I did not trade stock options.

I’m almost done with my 3 classes at HPU and will start another 5 online in the next two semesters. I want to double major by 2009 then do some pastry or music school or both when I get out. 2007 has been a very volatile year for my portfolio and my goal is to come out higher than last years or at least breaking even. Many of my penny stocks are worthless so I will have to sell them soon or I will be paying some serious taxes from gains I do not have anymore. Trends are looking good and the technicals are showing major buying right now so look out!

High Probability Trading by author Marcel Link + More

Just recently I started a new stock traders book High Probability Trading by author Marcel Link. So far I’ve gotten through the Preface. It isn’t very dry and it seems to push all the lessons and rules I have learned from many great traders. Marcel Link stresses disciplined qualities and I’m sure it will be a great read. I think reading about what you are most interested in being a success in is a step to becoming it, but as I’ve already reading actually trading with real money is the true test. I just recently finished the book How to Become a Stock Market Genius. It gave some interesting ideas I haven’t heard of before and I plan to practice them on paper to see how they work out. A book my friend is reading called How to Trade like Jesse Livermore is one of the best books I’ve just glanced at since I started reading it when he put it down. Many of the stock market rules in the book are the same I’ve been taught. I can’t wait to read it once he is finished so I can borrow it.

Recently the stock market, although choppy, has been feeling overall bullish since the economic reports and fed chairman Bernanke have been sending upbeat views. Employment is strong, oil is rising and stocks are rising with it, GDP is rising which is good because it could raise rates, but inflation remains flat and companies growth is still increasing which bulls want to hear.

NutriSystem Inc. (NTRI @ 52.41) has been going up a steady slow incline for the past week up around 4 pts since last Friday. If it hits $60 then my options trade for NTRI JUN 50 Calls will be up 100% and my GTC order should sell out. As for my other trades well they aren’t looking so good. For one thing, Boeing (BA @ 89) has just been hanging out at just $89 for too long. I own APR 95 Calls and my option is starting to decrease with the expiration date catching up. NYSE Group (NYX @ 93) has had a strong gain up to $97 and came back down to catch its breath. I expect it to go much higher and sell me out once it goes over $100 for my SEP 115 Calls. Another stock that has been flapping on the ground like a dieing fish is Trump Casinos (TRMP @18). It moved to $19 and has fallen down since after talking of a full sale of Trump Casinos to a larger casino. I’m wondering if a deal does go through how much of a premium would TRMP get bought out for? I’m wishing over $20 would sell me out of my JUL 25 Call position.

Long-term stocks that I own for speculative possible big gain chances are CCNG.OB and WTVI.PK both now trading below a penny, which sucks in my opinion. They have been both collecting and moving forward, but for some reason the stock price has been moving in the oppositive direction I think mostly because current investors are scared. I don’t know if I’m just crazy for buying the stock or if within 1-2 years the stock will move enough positively because something very good has happened and buying a very risky penny stock could pay off big for me. If not it is money I can lose and I went into the trade understand the high risk circumstances that the company could just declare bankruptcy for the 10th time (ha ha ha, jk).

A stock that has just hit me hard is Jones Soda Co. (JSDA @ 21.30). Recently browsing stocks like I usually do reading one article going into another I stumbled over a Jim Crammer article I believe of NTRI’s stock page. In the article it talked about small companies with lots of growth and with HANS a simular company was JSDA. I immediately went to go check it out to see the marketing behind the product at www.jonessoda.com website because if you can create an awesome looking product it has a greater chance of becoming successful in my opinion doing a lot of internet marketing. Once I saw it I immediately remembered it because I’ve actually had one before. The soda bottles are very distinct because they are colorful yet classy looking and fun. In my opinion a receipe for success. What I also found out researching the company on the website is that they really involve their customers with their product. Check out the www.myjonesmusic.com link and the www.myjones.com link at the bottom of the webpage. What you will find our brilliant gurrilla-type marketing ideas!!! Freaken awesome. A beverage company letting its customers put their own pictures on their favorite soda, offering blogs, and offering musicians a portal to express themselves can I say awesome again. Pepsi and Coke are maybe mega-huge billionaire companies, but they have no chance against a little companies like this. This company since its small can be more innovative and free thinking again a receipe for success. Anyway back to my story coming across Jones Soda. So after reading the article, checking out the Estimates, company website, and price of the stock I have to admit Jim Crammer could be really right on this company. Sure it has already moved considerably $1 – 21, but I feel an average investor who just gets in now still has much opportunity for future stocksplits and profiting. The only thing I wish the company did offer is stock options, what I enjoy trading, but maybe in time they will offer stock options. Jones Soda Co. is distributed most likely at your local store so go check it out they are delicious. And if you want more bang for your buck and feel like a super hero check out their energy drink Whoopass! Again back to the story, so later that day at work (because I had duty) I turned on the tv and Mad Money came on with the exact story I just read on Jim Crammer. This convinced me even more as a sign from God above that I should definitely look into the company more.

After checking out the site I noticed the company sponsored atheletes and talents. I filled out the application and I hope they contact me. I’ve been longboard surfing for 13 years and it would be awesome to wear a Jones Soda pop rashguard and represent Whoopass! logo. I’d get a kick out of it and I’m sure other surfers would ask me where to get it. I’m also curious if they have an affiliate marketing program because I’d definitely represent Whoopass! banner on my site to keep geeks like me awake while reading heavily financial books that can put you to sleep after just a few pages (try reading employment theory! omg!)

Well anyway be sure to drink a cold refreshing Jones rootbeer soda sometime to relax.
Also remember HASH is tomorrow at 3PM. I can’t wait! Definitely the Turkey trail this time!

Buying Apple Inc. (AAPL). Why I’m bullish for AAPL & WTVI

If you bought Apple Inc. (AAPL) today at $86 I’m 100% confident tomorrows high will at least be $1-2 pts higher and close positive. I’m also confident AAPL stock has reversed finally to the upside and big buyers have stepped in. This is probably a short-term correct meaning it might go up for 3-4 days, but that is enough to make some money. If AAPL stock hits $89-90 by Friday I’m right. If it doesn’t then the stock is heading farther down quicker.

Check out this chart I have of AAPL. This is why I think a definite reverse in price is about to happen: (click on picture to enlarge)

Recently I’ve aquired half million shares of WTVI.PK and it is up around 65% within the past 3 days (which means up $.002 cents!). I plan to keep the stock until I think its a lemon or it hits $1 which ever comes first. I’m considering buying another half million, but I want to bring up my account first, meet my goals, and then buy more. I’m really excited about the company because Bill Gates backs the techology mix with social networking which is always a plus and the site definitely has something new to offer any consumer that has a wi-fi device that wants entertainment for free. I feel www.wi-fitv.com will provide this and get better at what they want to offer the more popular the site and service to members it becomes just like utube.com and myspace.com

The stock is making great buying moves. Current volume is going up every day and all the diluted floating shares are being bought up and that’s what I like to see. The companies market capital is only worth right now probably around $200,000 dollars. This isn’t even a million dollar company. So if they aren’t able to get advertisers and sponsors within 6-12 months this company will be worth $0 most likely because of bankruptcy.

Here is the daily and weekly chart of WTVI.pk – Both trend charts are showing a reverse in the stock price going up. It is currently hitting the bollinger bands on the daily which could make it come down, but if the stock is bullish and investors are buying in before the announcement then it should break through the BB. (Click on the pictures to enlarge.)

If you’d like me to research your stock and blog about it shoot me an e-mail. -FN

My monthly saving should get easier with less trading…

Recently with my plan to see how far I can get gains as close to 100% a month on my initial investment of $2000 I should be able to save more money in my checking and savings accounts by not depositing more money into my trading account. So far my $2000 has grown to around $8000 in 3 months.

I was putting every extra couple hundred dollars into my OptionsXpress.com trading account to trade options with, but recently I put an end to that because I was just loosing it all. I feel if I give myself certain amount to trade and that is all I get for a long time psychologically maybe I will trade more disciplined and do more solid trades. So far it has worked and money has been building back up in my bank accounts.

So far I have $2700 saved up in my savings account and $1800 in my checking account. If I do not deposit any bi-weekly paychecks into my trading account I should be able to build an extra $1500 a month into my checking and $725 a month into my savings. A total of around $2225 a month or over $24,000 for 2007.

My car note still has $24,000 on it and I’d like to pay it off first and second my mortgage that I receive a rental income on which is still $58,800. My car note is 8.25% and my home 6.5% so paying off my car note first would be the economical choice to save money. My question is should I apply all my extra money to it monthly or pay it off at the end of the year in one lump sum? I guess psychologically if I see it being paid down each month I’ll keep paying it off while if I just leave a big fat sum of money I might start thinking “spending and buying” or even “this might be the big trade” and loose it all on something dumb materialistic things or a bad trade. So, paying off my car monthly with a larger amount probably would be the smarter choice.

If I trade less and focus on just those few I should have less losses and I’m taught it’s not about having big gains, but having very small losses. Recently I receive a big gain then big loss. If I could just stop the cycle of big loss it would really speed up my money goals in trading.

If anyone has any suggestions on what to pay off first my house or my car please comment.
My car has a 7 year note and my house a 30 year mortgage. I could finish paying off my house in 3 years and then have my car note left for 4 more years. Tell me what you think.

Penny Stock (OTC: WTVI.PK) – Wi-Fi TV Inc. stock review

A few days a go I talked about finding this sales ad for a Wi-Fi TV channel recruiter/sales person off craigslist.org. Something that always gets me excited is something different and something very new which is what Wi Fi TV Inc is trying to do. Now, although Wi-Fi is nothing new it is becoming a bigger part of our everyday lives. For instance most new and old cell phones come with wireless wi-fi downloading video clips. Companies like Sharp, Sony, and Casio are coming out with Wi-Fi wireless TV’s. I did some research on www.Google.com with the keyword “Wi Fi Tv” and this is what I came up with:

Wi-Fi TV Inc. on pinksheets.com (OTC:WTVI.PK)
June 2004 – Talks about electronic companies building the first Wi-Fi TV sets.
January 2006 – An airport company creates Wi-Fi streaming TV for its passengers.
May 2006 – This blog talks about all the cell phones using wi-fi hotspots to download wi-fi Tv channels and on Wi Fi TV Inc.’s free calling service with it’s new website.
March 2003 – A public broadcasting cable channel in New York, NY uses wi-fi in a park to do a live broadcast.
2006 Article – Statistics on Wi-Fi users and big market. How Wi-fi is growing and companies that are starting to profit from it.
January 2007 – Press release of Wi-FiTV.com at the 2007 Consumers Electronics Expo in Europe.
January 2007 – Press release of Wi-FiTV.com’s new social wi-fi tv streaming website.
November 2006 – Wi-Fi TV Inc.’s business plan to compete with uTube.com and Myspace.com

Currently I plan to invest in this penny stock for these reasons. At least with the information I found, emailing the company, and profit potential I think this company has a good chance of growing into something better. It is basically nothing right now, but if the company does introduce their website and new product offering to the market correctly it could be a big deal.
With the stock at less than a penny @ $.0031 I’m going to purchase $2000 worth which will give me over a half a million shares. The possibility of loosing my investment is extremely high. Since I can loose the same amount buying options I’m willing to take the risk for a reward. Plus I like the companies vision. I do think watching wi-fi tv from your laptop, PDA, or cellphone and messaging with each other could be a fun thing. If I think the site does a really good job at Feburary 19, 2007 new social site press release I plan to buy another 500,000 shares to have a 1% stake in the company if the penny stock is still a penny.

Check out www.wi-fitv.com and tell me what you think. -FN

Wall Street is happy with Fed’s “management” of soft landing economy – Also a OTC stock called Wi-FiTv.com

Today investors were happy including wall street with the Fed’s holding the rates unchanged and applauding Feds for “managing” the economy well even though the Feds caution investors ahead. Rates stay unchanged at 5.25% made the market go up after final decision was made. Many stocks have been beaten down and I feel one that will gain a lot from this will be Catepillar Inc (CAT @ $64) with a profitable quarter and positive outlook with economy.

I just recently have been viewing Hawaii’s craigslist.org for extra part-time income for my spare time when I get back to save more. In the sales jobs I found a sales opportunity for selling online Wi-Fi Tv channels at $25,000 a pop!
Seems expensive but could be very cheap if this site would become the number #1 for Wi-Fi Tv downloading on wireless laptops, PDAs, PSPs, and Cellular Phones. I checked out the site, the publicly traded company on the OTC pinksheets OTC: WTVI.PK, and CEO. Bad things are its financials with a lot of liabilities and debt. Positives are if it could gain market share in the online TV generation it could be bigger then uTube.com offering actual Wi-Fi Tv to download and watch anywhere. Currently after a 1:500 stock split (truly bad) this stock tanked and lets say its original investors lost a great deal of the money they invested. Now the stock just sits dead smashed at less than a penny @ $.003

Now this could be an opportunity with the company pushing a new sales force to sell the site and channels and working on website traffic the companies stock is very speculative. Owning 100,000 shares after commissions would be a very low risk investment even if you lost all your money. Say the CEO and company does just one thing right and your investment could easily be worth a mega percentage more while the company grows and starts to pay off liabilities to become profitable.

Wi-FiTv.com is something in the near future. uTube.com has already made uploading videos and watching them possible, trendy, and sold for billions of dollars to Google.com. Now to actually have a trendy Wi-Fi Tv service I think its going to take a lot more dedication and shows users are actually going to want to watch. Right now Wi-FiTv.com is just personal shows with some small bits of real tv news programs like Bloomberg.com and webcams.

It is currently trying to sell channels at $25k a piece for advertising or charity? Give me a break! Users don’t download advertisements to watch! This is where I’m confused and think the company is going to have a road block. I think the right thing would be selling $25k advertising Ads and making all the channels frees. Making millions of channels somewhat like uTube, but more geared to shows, talkshows, podcasting, and events and let users search what they want to watch and have advertisers pay to be in that main area with their specific unique product or service. Now that would make more sense. I’m going to talk to a sales rep selling channels. I’ll see what he/she has to say and see if I can actually view Wi-FiTv.com on my Sony PSP game sole which is Wi-Fi capable.

I need to be sold first before I invest even $100 into this company. If all these channels presently on Wi-FiTv.com paid $25,000 a piece for a crappy show or wi-fi tv advertising I’m going to be blown away because it seems like a waist of advertising money at this point. After viewing the channels as a free user nothing makes me want to use the service or watch it because theres nothing interesting on the site.

Once I get more on the scoop of WTVI.PK I will be sure to post something new good or bad about the company.

FOMC Meeting – The Fed Effect on the Stock Market

Well we are heading into the FOMC meeting where everyone gets nervous about things we already know, Feds not going to cut rates any lower, duh! Most likely when the Feds make a statement to the public annoucing they will not be cutting rates for the entire year at first the stock market will panic and then come to its senses because its already been a known fact that has been engrained into our daily stock market media news.

Current prices in Hawaii’s home market (the housing sector of the market) is tanking putting smiles on cheap investors like me. I wouldn’t call a 240 sqft studio with $400/condo fees for $136,000 cheap, but compared to just 2 months ago the sellers were asking $160,000 which is a big cut. Hundreds of homes and condos in Hawaii’s high priced selling market are finally coming down because buyers aren’t willing to pay those prices and they are truly not affordable making renting the smarter choice. Now I am actually looking to buy again getting approved for a new loan. If I do get qualified I will buy something in the middle of downtown Waikiki near the surfing beaches and shops for a prime rental unit later down the road. Even if my mortgage and condo fees together cost me $1500/month I can easily rent it for $3,000/month or $750/week to vacationers looking for a hot spot to stay in. Average hotel room is $150-300/night so for $100/night it is a bargain to own and use as a rental. Now I just need to get approved.

The Fed meeting will more likely increase rates so you really want to buy before this happens. If rates go down that is a good thing to lockin on a 30 year fixed mortgage. My current income is only around $44,000 plus if I do anything part-time might add another $6,000 a year. If I make any serious chunks of money in trading stock options I use that to pay off my mortgage or car first. I’m hoping to advance and get a nice $500 extra pay raise a month before 2008. Depending on how the Fed talks positive or negative on the current economy stocks could stay flat or turn sharply in either direction. This is basically the Fed’s effect on investors in the market making them panic or be confident about their portfolio. It really doesn’t matter for me I just want to know a fixed answer from them.

Another thing I’d like to mention in this blog with my condo buying info is that now because I did buy my first new car and have a $430/month payment it will hurt me most likely in borrowing power to buy a condo. The fact is I don’t want to get something that will gobble up my entire paycheck at the same time if I buy something else to rent out I will still have that new mortgage plus the cost I will have to pay to rent my own place in hawaii which will most likely come out to the same or more. I’d really like to own a condo in Hawaii. I blog about if I able to get one or not with the lowered prices soon. If I get a second job that would be an extra stream of income to pay off my car which I want to do first to increase my cashflow again.

Currently the market isn’t doing much but recently OIL energy stocks are really showing a change in direction and I’m playing PUTS on OIH. I basically need it to hit around $129 to call me out to make 25%. I also think NUE, AAPL, and CMG are about to head higher.

Apple Computer CEO Steve Jobs could make AAPL stock fall hard

Lately Apple Computer Inc. has been getting some great reviews on it’s new product line for 2007 secretly done by AAPL CEO Steve Jobs. I think even earnings this year with selling the smaller iPod Shuffle to the masses could be a hit and we already know iTunes has done superb selling downloads just another cash growth machine from Apple. What we also hear about over and over is the AAPL stock options probe on Apple itself and going after the CEO of the company Steve Jobs. If CEO Steve Jobs is asked to step down or leave this could be dangerous for the stock price. I could see it falling more than 10% in a day. Recently after the hype about the new products from the Mac Expo 2007 the stock has been slowly treading down which isn’t strange because the stock is up around 12%. Some profits will be take off the table. I think it will go higher into earnings. I think it will be a very volatile year for Apple.
If the iPhone does very well and is a hit it could be the biggest trend setter yet since the iPod started in 2000. If CEO Jobs has to leave it will damage and hurt investors, but only for the short-term as long as Apple sustains its growth and products sell and produce earnings beating Wall Street Analyst estimates. AAPL currently trades at $95.

A former real Wall Street analyst blogger I found did a great job commeting on his Coffee Brew for Friday Jan 12. I like what he has to say. He sounds very knowledgeable about the market.
I’d read some of his posts and I think he is also right about Computer sales for the Tech Sector about AMD. I think you could see some change later in 2007.

Apple Computer iPhone, AAPL option trade, Condo Investments

Apple Computer’s announcement of its new iPhone and iTv was no surprise as the stock dropped 3 pts right before CEO Steve Jobs came out with the iPhone around noon PST. As soon as it was shown investors bought in confidence AAPL stock and it rose up 8%. The following day buyers that did not buy the first day tried to get in on the action raising the price another 5%. This is when I had the decision to sell my AAPL JAN 07 100 Calls and get out +$2000 instead of being negative -$4300 just 3 days before!

I’m pretty impressed by the sleek look of the new iPhone and I’m even considering changing my Cingular RAZR for it if it works easy. I keep my cell phone on me all the time and have a nano iPod and I actually really want my iPod in my phone. I think the iPhone idea is brilliant and will be a profit machine for growth for 2007 AAPL balance sheet. The only shortfall to the iPhone is its small harddrive for space. Until a new iPhone comes out I might not get it because its small 4/8gig harddrive is just not enough for all my songs, video podcasts, and data to store on it. This could be the new wave of ultra-small computer devices. Yes, Palm has been out for a while but it was more of a mini-desk organizer then a phone or music player. I owned the sweet Palm phone (silver) back in 2000 for $400 so buying a $500 iPhone really isn’t that big of deal. I do not find price a problem here. Just harddrive space at the moment I think will upset new iPhone users like myself.

As for the stock play I did on AAPL this trade definitely wasn’t the worst trade I’ve ever done because my GRMN trade being +300% and not selling before earnings Nov 15, 2006 is definitely the worst trade. This will have to be my 2nd worst trade of 2006 just because the smart thing would of been to buy these option contracts just days before the Mac Expo. I should of sold out at a $500 loss earlier and bought back in at $.20-30 per contract and bought over 100 and made such a bigger % and income from the trade probably half of my USCG salary in less that 3 days! I am journaling this for next time. What I did do which is good trading but isn’t bad either since it helped me get out profitable was I bought in increments when the stock price went down so my ending cost basis for my options was $1.22 per option and I sold my options at $2.05 giving me almost a 100% profit for around 35 trading days or about a month. Again, bad trading. I’m sure their are some investors that are reading this that are thinking this is a fantastic gain in such a short time, but believe me this is really bad trading, although I sold before earnings and didn’t hold my options being greedy. Because of this reason I have already improved 100% personally and more disciplined.

I saw AAPL starting to hit a ceiling today and thought to myself I’d rather have money in the bank right now then be wrong about tomorrow. I sold before the option pricing starting to go down with the close of the day. In after hours Cisco came out with a big “I’m sueing Apple over iPhone name patent”. So my thinking of I could be wrong tomorrow was a smart move. AAPL stock is pretty bullish right now so hitting $110 or even $120 by earnings is possible, but its also possible it could fall hard right after earnings. For this reason, today, I am happy in Hawaii.

My next trade will most likely be FXI Puts with its strong new trend downward all charts are showing a downtrend and lots of profit taking is happening. I don’t care to be right I just want to perform in my trading for 2007. I’d rather be wrong and sell out early and keep my money.

As for my Mexico property investment the new terms are better on a condo I looked at while I was there even closer to the beach I am in the process of putting a purchase contract on for $560,000 Pesos or converted to USD $52,000 and I’d have to put around $5000 into renovations then rent it for 4-6 months a year to break even. This condo is less expensive than the smaller home I would have liked to buy, but now I am thinking this is the better rental income investment over time.

Another idea I had was build a decent size log cabin on some land in Virginia and rent it out as a hunters lodge during hunting season, ski resort people looking for a private place, weekend retreaters, and churches for retreats. Right now I don’t feel I could really do it well without help and none of my family is really interested at the moment so I will make this a project for later possibly.

As for beginning the new year of 2007 I’m pretty happy being sold out of all my options and feel I have a fresh start of trading wiser and more disciplined this year. For one thing I’m going to stop depositing money into my stock account to trade. I’m just going to build up my savings, something I’ve never really done before. I’ll probably use that money to pay off my car loan because that would free up $400 a month I could keep saving and not worry about that loan payment by the time I’m out of the USCG.

I hope this was helpful to any young or old investors out there. Lesson today is not to be greedy and sell when you are happy.

An article I liked on Apple Computer’s hype and glory for the secretcy of it’s products was done great by a blogger from the Utility Belt. Also here is an article on the growing middle class of Mexico starting a mortgage boom that will help build Mexico’s growing economy by BusinessWeek Online. A good article on the iPhone and how it will definitely change the computer-phone industry by theStreet.com did a great job here.

New 2007 year begins with negative news from Fed, also Apple’s big week, sell-off on Asia ETF’s?

First off the Santa Claus rally did happen ending 2006, but Fed news for 2007 this week made investors sell. Investors were not to happy hearing rates will not be cut and possibly rates to go up later in the year. I think this should be expected if the Feds are trying to balance the sheet with inflation. We are way behind on inflation. Although if interest rates rise higher and inflation goes higher that is a signal for a bearish looking market to come. The recent oil drop to $55 BBL and Steel stocks way below their 52 week lows are starting to hit support. Take OIH Oil Trust @ $129 and NUE Steel @ $54. If you expecially look at NUE charts it shows a correction is starting to take place with a reversal hammer to go up with a long stick down showing the stock being bought up in the past week. Also my Puts. NUE hasn’t gone down past $54. It went from $60 to $58 to $54 and again I was up 25% but because I didn’t sell out when I was up the option is down because it is getting near expiration date with the stock supporting at $54. I took my first loss today because if I am going to start the New Year off right then I need to sell my options not doing anything for me, which brings me to Apple. Apple’s Mac week is next week which should bring up its stock price with good news from it because it seems Apple has really gone out of its way to make a “bang” this year for customers. Even its website keeps its new products mysterious and creates excitement for Apple users. Apple earnings is January 17, 2007. Profits on iTunes downloads and new iPods are predicted to ramp up sales and show a surprise. Right now my option is down -150% and I need to bring it up to at least to break even at $1.42. The option price even with the current good news raising the price to $86 has done little for raising the price back up.

One big lesson I’ve learned with options and buying out of the money in the same month of expiration is that once you are up 10-30% in the option when you are right the first 2-3 days get out immediately with your profits and don’t wait for the stock price to move further. I was correct in my AAPL, NUE, and AMAT options but because I did not sell them immediately after I was right I’ve lost on all 3 of them. As Cramer says you haven’t made any money until you sell and it’s in your bank account.

Recently China’s ETF purely liquid fund FXI has vomated out 10% of profits. FXI hit a high of $118 and just recently in the past 2 days fallen over -13pts. If you look at the charts the stock is one huge line up from skyrocketing up with buying. Even I feel some selling is going to go on. I still think FXI is going higher, but the stock price could come down past the $90’s for now. It’s predicted that if China’s markets have a sell-off in the new year that for the next couple of months the stock will go to half its current stock price. If that was true then that would be a very profitable PUT option play on FXI. I am going to examine that charts on it to see if the sell-off reversal is going to hold and more profit taking will happen. Currently FXI is up 80% and falling. Jim Cramer says in his internet articles that since Asia’s companies are so liquid that owning the ETF fund makes it even more risky unless you can wait for it to come down and buy back into it. I even have a friend who bought FXI around $93. I asked him if he sold it when it his $112 or even $118 he said he didn’t. I would of sold for that type of profit. Now he does own the stock. I’d never buy the stock I’d buy the Call options which would of been worth a couple thousand right now even with the fall. But now with a new trend it might even be easier to play it down then to play it up.
As for the new year my first port call was Manzanillo, Mexico. It was beautiful although the surf wasn’t going off in town I heard there was surf farther north or south. I checked out 5 different properties for sale and really liked this smaller 1bed/1bath with huge lot overlooking the Santiago bay. It was actually a really nice casa that just need a bit of upgrades to make it a really great rental, but I am currently finding it very hard to get a loan that makes it profitable to own it and rent it out. I first thought mortgage of $600-700 would be okay because I’d have to get out a second loan with a mortgage of $200 around to make upgrades like new electrical, upgrade kitchen, and furniture to make it a turn-key rental that is just 3 blocks to the beach and 5 minutes from downtown shops. So now with the only loan I can receive at 20 years at 9.9% mexican rate which would be over $700 month not including all my taxes, insurances, and bank trust fees a year + my second loan over $200/m for cosmetic upgrades to make somebody want to rent it I am finding it might not be the best investment right now. Even if I could rent out easily for $1000 a month for a solid 6 months out of the year that still leaves me with $900 X 6 month = $5,400 out of my pocket a year to pay for something that isn’t rented possibly or even possibly for 1 whole year would be over $10,000 which could be saved in an account. Long-term if the property rises 10% a year because the town is growing and many projects are being built their my return on investmetn could be 30% in 3 years by the time I get out of the military I could have $30,000 in equity built up if I sold it and could cash out. I’d really like to talk to a professional about this, but don’t know who to talk to because most people do not understand investments like this. I can get this loan, but I just don’t want to struggle with payments since in 3 years I am out of the military I’d be up to $2,000 a month in mortgage and car loan bills! This is not good. It would only be good if I could sell my property for a good size gain or pay off my first mortgage and my car loan only leaving one big bill left. If I am able to rent it a solid 6 months out of the year for possible more that would help on my payments, but I’d like to live in something I own in the end.

So I still have more port calls to make. I might find a better deal somewhere else. It would just be awesome to live so close to the beach where great surfing waves are. I just want to make wiser decisions because I want to be either debt free or have great investments in 3 years. If I make wrong decisions it could bring on the pain and put me again behind schedule in retiring early and young.

Monster Growth on Monster Energy drink made by Hansen Co. (HANS)

I was viewing Krispy Kreme Donuts (KKD) earnings report on Yahoo! Finance and then went on to read an article on it, through that article I read an article on Hansens Monster Energy (HANS) drink with anaylst thinking it will be the next KKD on its quick rise and possible hard down fall because HANS stock price has gone up 6,000%. Monster Energy drink sales and energy drink trends were being related to KKD by anaylst, but I beg to differ. I do not see how you can relate a dessert food with an energy drink. I do not think a Krispy Kreme Donut consumer thinks they are going to think and focus sharper or get a boost of energy to stay awake where as Monster Energy drink consumers do. They say energy drinks are just a trend. I do not think this is the case because many new companies are coming out with their own energy drinks to take shelf space away from the big guys Monster and Red Bull Energy drink. Lately, new energy drinks such as Rockstar, Who’s Your Daddy, and even Hulk Hogan’s “Hogan Energy” have hit the shelves besides Coffee Caffiene drinks like Starbuck’s (SBUX) Double Shot. Energy drinks are rich with sugar, caffiene, and ginseng. Other ingredients include some minerals and vitamins if you are lucky.

Currently HANS is ranked #2 as the fastest growing companies in Fortune’s 100 Fastest Growing Companies this year. HANS just recently created a partnership with Anheuser-Busch to help Bar and Resturant Sales, increase distribution, increase market position to make Monster Energy Drink #1 over it’s main competitor Red Bull Energy drink. HANS current stock price is around $34 which is 20 times it’s forward earnings statement projections. HANS Monster Energy Drink is considered to overtake Red Bull’s market position to dominate as #1 in Energy Drink sales by June 2008. I feel there is still room for HANS to go higher then its $52 stock price high on growth and earnings projections for the company. The company beginning stock price was around $.07 cents. Talk about a turn around story for a penny stock starting in 1996 and 10 years later your stock being worth probably around $1 million. I feel their is still growth, stocksplits, and possible buyout for Hansens by a bigger company like Coke or Pepsi. The 1 month chart shows HANS could possible pull back some more, but if you are buying long the 1-5 year charts show a bullish uptrend with still more upside. The 10 year chart expecially shows HANS being sold-off hard at the 52 week highs showing increase buying just recently. I will do another review on this stock in a couple of months to see where its at.

What do I drink? Personally underway to stay wake during those late hour shifts I have bought around 4 12-Pack cases of Red Bull. I don’t necessary like them (the taste), but they do give me a caffiene boost to focus on my work, surfing the internet, and studying stocks. I am going to try out Monster Energy drink soon. I hope it’s relatively the same price for more drink. If so I’d switch because Red Bull is such a small can. I’d like to have more to drink and more to boost me awake!

Apple (AAPL) iTunes Store receives 90% of PAID Video Downloads

I found this paragraph interesting on an off subject source on video downloads for the movie industry:

“Of paid downloads, 62% was TV content, 24% was music video content and 6% was mainstream movie content. Where were consumers buying these downloads? About 90% percent came from Apple Computer’s iTunes store, with 5% coming from movie-subscription site Vongo, 3% from movie download service Movielink and less than 1% from movie download service CinemaNow. “

For the full news article click here.

This came from:  www.Forbes.com

Apple Computer is currently trading lower and lower.  I find it painful because I see on the charts the next day it will trade lower and I rebuy Calls at lower points waiting for a big buy back, but I think these dumb anaylst are still pissed about backdating options, iPhone name being taken by Cisco (CSCO), no show for financial reports, and Jim Cramer’s opinionating voice is not moving Apple up like any other stock he would usually vouch for.  Jim Cramer keeps saying everything is misleading and Apple is worth more and creating major growth.  I am with him completely, but currently the public investor is selling it off.  So until an institution comes in with “strong buy” (of course while the load up on it first to make the real profit) I will have to patiently wait for the 50% solid run that will go up into earnings.  Problem is “time decay” with call options when you are dumb like me and buy this month for maximum profitability and maximum loss…   Smart thing to do buy lots of time and deep in the money, oh yeah but that would of been the right thing to do.  Shit.  I can’t stand being young and immature.

A rare quality. Struggles making you stronger. Creating your success. Just do it.

Christopher Gardner CEO of Gardner Rich & Co. is a rare man who created his success.  I just recently saw his brief life story he sold rights to for the new movie “The Pursuit of Happyness” starring Will Smith.  I find this man fascinating and simular to myself as a young ambitious entrepreneur.  Although I can not say I am as glorious as he is being ultra successful and finding his happiness I can say I have struggled.  If you have struggled at all and stayed optimistic through your difficult struggle you will definitely admire and enjoy this film on one year of his life story.  I went to go see it because I wanted to see Wall Street, stocks being traded, and a man making it in the business.  What I ended up seeing which was even stronger insight then making money was being able to make it through an overwhelming struggle against all odds.  I’d highly recommend the movie to any Will Smith fan who played a great role or person seeking some motivation to help you with your current struggle.

I could write an entire blog website on my struggle.  I think I am still not completely over it and still working everyday to creat my own success.  All I can say is that Chris Gardner is an extraordinary person and he has such rare qualities.  So little individuals would go through what he did to get what they wanted with such a good attitude.  I’m not saying the movie perfectly portrays him, but if you read his interviews he is a very well spoken courageous individual.  As in the movie I also once bought into a business venture thinking the world was with me until I found out I was also totally wrong about what I was selling.  I received the same reaction from friends and family and it was the hardest time of my life getting through it.  The fact is I did get through it by believing in myself. I’d love to meet Chris Gardner.  He must be an abundant man of love.  I know his fund for raising money for South Africa will be a success.  I believe in him.

As for me I will keep working, learning, and living my dream I want to accomplish everyday of my life until I complete it.  Thanks Chris Gardner for being such an inspiration.

Garmin (GRMN), Research in Motion (RIMM), Apple Computer (AAPL), NUE, and China Energy Security

Hi.  I read in the news today that General Electric (GE @ $37.36) and Westinghouse Electric Co. will be receiving mega big multi-billion dollar contracts to build nuclear reactors throughout asia specifically the mother herself China.  Since I found this ETF Index Asia fund on China (FXI) I’ve been very bullish that it will continue to move in the $120 to high $140’s.  If you just look at the big picture of China building a New Yorker City every month that can add up to a lot of booming business turning China into an economic powerhouse.  China has billions of people that will be needing and wanting what American’s take for granted.  GE will be building many nuclear reactors to create energy security for these new huge cities.  Yes, there is still communisim but it is regulated and small entrepreneurship is being granted to business people.  Businesses are underway and paving the way to a better society for its people.  FXI index fund invests in many electric, water, cable, oil, and many other companies already in China that are China businesses making big profits because China is building itself, proving it wants to be number #1.

Notes on other stocks: 

Research in Motion (RIMM) was just recently at $125 and I told my sister it was a good buying level because I felt the support price and a possible stock split in the near future.  Just 3 days later it’s at $138.  That is up $13.  If you owned Call options you are looking at a 50-300% return within a week.  Pretty good if you ask me!  No I wasn’t in them because I was already in a position and didn’t have as much money to invest because I was a smart person and paid off some of my mortgage first.  I can also note that anaylst are very bullish because RIMM has been beating earnings expectations and target prices have been raised to $160-175. 

Apple Computer (AAPL) stock price has been hit by negative news on iTunes music store song downloads.  Rumors are that growth is -65%, but anaylst think differently with CEO Steve Jobs that this data is incorrect.  The rumors is spread even more because AAPL is delaying its financial reports cleaning up it’s predated stock options scandal problem.  I feel AAPL just wants to clean up the stock options error and move on as soon as possible.  Anaylst say the low 80’s stock price now is a buying position opportunity and that iPod sales are key to solid earnings.  I really think many anaylst are forgetting computer sales growth with AAPL.  There has been a buying surge on their computer sales growth and computer users are switching now to Mac’s trying them out.  This could be mega huge for AAPL sales growth adding to iPod sales and music downloads.   I own AAPL and buying more into my position going into AAPL earnings Jan 17, 2006.

Also I still feel NUE Steel maker will be dropping harder and lower soon with its warnings for earnings.  Warnings is bad and there is also been out news that Steel makers will be receiving lower profits due to new laws on taxes and imports to help lower Auto Makers costs.  So sell stell and buy auto stocks?  Maybe.  Chart indicators show a reversal to go down also.  Now patience comes into play.  The stock has moved sideways straight across since warnings more then likey it will move to the $55 zone soon.

Lastly Garmin GPS Products (GRMN) having been a hit being built into new cars like GM and although earnings weren’t fantastic they did prove the company is still in its growth stage.  GRMN is getting much media attention to I might ad and their marketing has been effective on Tv ads through posters in boat shops and add-ons in cars and trucks.  I see big things.  They will be splitting their stock 2:1 on Dec 16 (tomorrow).  The stock has moved to my target I predicted and felt it would goto by Jan 07 which is $53-55 dollars.  It currently hit $55.  Another good stock or stock option play you would of made around 10% if you bought the stock and around 100% if you owned the options.  I feel when that price hits $25-28 after it splits stock brokers will be telling their clients to buy buy buy.  The stock isn’t any cheaper, the company hasn’t changed, and now you just own two instead of 1.  But for the new investor they are going to think they are getting a steal.  I see the price going past the $30’s in 2007 for an easy 10-20% gain if the GRMN is able to keep analyst happy and a possible surprise in earnings could really boost this stock back into the $50-80’s again. 

All stocks depend on the market and where it is going.  I’m even curious.  I have no idea.  The charts show the stock market looks to keep moving up.  I feel there is a breaking point for all stocks.  Stocks like GOOG and RIMM which I feel are really expensive may actually be cheap right now, but soon oh very soon I feel where I am going to become a million is when high rolling stocks drop and that drop is going to be the key to buying Puts and make the big money coming down.  Patience and having the funds at the right time is also important.  Right now the stock market, economic reports, and attitude is optimistic to keep moving.  So run with everyone else now but don’t take advice read and be insightful because it’s YOUR money on the line.

Cheers -P

Market moves down – Apple Computer (AAPL) and McDonald’s (MCD) stock reviews

About a week or more ago I predicted the market to move further down with profit takings and technical data indicators.  Although I played Calls on AAPL going up because so many upgrades and hype rumors helping boost its shares, Puts would of been the more profitable and the right choice.  I suppose finally the market gave AAPL a hang over and its down to $86.  I looked at the Daily year chart and AAPL is still riding up it’s trend line from July 2006 and it hasn’t broke yet.  Also the simple moving averages are still in line with the prive movement.  It still can move down before hitting the trend line breaking it.  Now I’m not saying it won’t move to $100.  I think it is very likely with increasing sales on everything it does (music downloading, iPods, and fresh improving computer sales) I’m just right now it looks down.  I’d wait to see a reversal pop up or big white candle buying sign saying “BUY ME HERE”.  Where?  I currently am in a loosing position and I should of sold out 4 days ago, duh!  But my personality and stock selling maturity appearantly still has not improved.  I’ve been breaking too many rules lately that I’ve been taught.  My oldest sister even tells me she can’t help me or do team work if I don’t follow the rules exactly as they are written.  What am I suppose to do being so dang risky!  I shoot big guns in the market and yes they shoot back even bigger and hit me harder!  A very good bullet proof vest would be wearing the rules on my chest.  If I am going to break the rules then I’m going to buy call/put options with tons of time value so I can breath easier through volatile price changes because -$1-3 pts on a stock is a big percentage change when owning a stock option.  I think not breaking the rules would be the right choice again.  The real question is how much money from my “could be big savings bank account” am I will to give up to trade in the stock market and receive a Harvard college price education?  For me my stock market education is everything, but I’m starting to think I should be doing more “homework practice plays with no money” then trading all my real hard earned money. 

I’ve currently decided to buy McDonald’s MCD at the $43 stock price for June 2007 55 CALLS @ .10.  My order hasn’t been processed yet so it might not be sold to me but I shall wait or buy more @ $.15 later if the stock keeps its price.  McDonalds has been doing very keeping their stores clean, modernizing them, offering healthier foods, keeping an excellent $1 menu, and increasing same-store sales with positive earnings news and upgrades on the corporate company.  It also has a strong upward trend since July 2003.  I can also note MCD has been pretty flat since October 2006 and only recently popped in December 2006 on upgrades and same-stores sales increasing.

Although MCD is a fast-food giant and probably not the healthiest for burgers still customers love its food, prices, and fast service.

I will also note about myself that I am now presently underway crusing in the Pacific ocean with my USCG cutter for around 3 months.  My internet is slow, but I will still update my blog, networthiq, and current trade holdings.  I am still optimistic on making 1 solid 100% trade a month to reach my goal of $100k to $1 Million.  I just need to learn how to stop trading after I reach my monthly goal so I don’t loose any money I make in profits.  I find getting into stocks options are easy.  The hard part is selling off the greed taking some profit and getting out quicker.

I will be doing more practice trades during this time since I can not trade on the boat due to the new hours I work and slow connection.  If I can add new funds to my portfolio I will to save money out of my pay check.  I’m hoping to save $5,000 out of my pay checks by March 2007.  I think it would be best to put towards paying off my car.  Best*

I will also be looking for a new place to live.  I hope I find a perfect match in my budget to keep saving money on housing costs to put it towards my stock market education and goals.

-P

Jamba Juice Inc. the next Starbucks –

I feel Jamba Juice is the next Starbucks trendy type company that is focused on selling a specific products happy consumers love to spend their money on.  Here in Honolulu, Hi there at least 10 Jamba Juices I know of on every major corner or strategically placed right next to a Starbucks in shopping centers.  I commented this on WallStrip.com’s blog about Jamba Juice.  They say its a joke and going to go under I say the complete opposite.  They need to take a vacation to Hawaii to understand why I say this.  I’m in the military and we people in the military buy 6-10 large Jamba Juice smoothes a day.  Well, I don’t because I dont’ like to spend money, but all my buddies and workers love to buy up Jamba Juice smoothies.  Jamba Juice has a quality product, it’s trendy, fun, and “cool”.  I call that a recipe for success.  Jamba Juice is the smoothie of choice here in Hawaii.  Even in my local city of Virginia Beach, VA there are Jamba Juices in all the major strip malls.  I read the financials on the company and it said profit dropped.  You know even Starbucks has hit hard times and hasn’t always profited.  Jamba Juice is still in the start up faze.  I read on their company website they only have like 562 company and franchised stores.  That is nothing when you compare it to giant Starbucks.  I feel there is plenty of growth for Jamba Juice.  Their stock is trading around $10 a share.  CHEAP!   Though even I feel it could go lower before it rockets off.  I feel they need to build their store base more.  But would I buy it right now?  Hell yes!  I wish they had leap year options on it.  I’d buy call options 2-3 years a head.  I feel this stock is seriously going to $30 by 2008 building more stores and placing them next to Starbucks so the consumer traffic is already there.  As for now I’d see if the company performs better and starts to profit and increase stores.  If leap options become available I’ d like to add them to my portfolio.  Clearly as shown below the stock has been sold off hard around 20%.  With some solid positive news it could really turn the price to the upside once investors start to recognize the real value of the small company.

AAPL earnings in January – New products – Strong holiday sales

I just recently decided that I have been ignoring Apple Computers stock way too much.  I watch it everyday and I consider it one of my expert stocks.  I’m trading companies I really shouldn’t be trading in right now like MSO and AMAT which are acting like snails and aren’t moving, sadly I can’t even sell out.  I decided for my 100% trade of the month I would buy AAPL calls going into earnings Jan 07.  The rumors and the news predict very strong sales for Apple Computer, a possible new iPod phone surprise – read apple phone patent news,  and Microsofts Zune is not selling showing that the iPod’s advertising is still pushing sales higher then ever.  Plus don’t foget Apple’s itunes and imusic store selling millions of songs each quarter.  Another positive note to add to this winning companies story is the strong increase in its Mac Pro being sold more then ever.  I’ve even read a couple of blogs where people that use to hate everything about Mac’s now want one more then ever just because they switched to Intel chips with the new software OS X that can switch between Windows XP applications and Mac OS software.  For these reasons I’m choosing this stock of Dec 06 for my 100% trade towards my $40,000 goal on the way to $1 Million.  I can also note that AAPL also just received a price target upgrade to $108.  If AAPL does anything like RIMM did with earnings and products the price could well go into the $120’s leaving plently of room for me to trade the stock going up and down earning 100%.

Well that’s it for now. -P

Thank you Dell Computer for beating analyst expectations.

Again, thank you Dell Computer.  When Dell beat earnings expectations the entire market after hours lifted up by next morning it opened some retail and tech stocks much higher.  I was focused on Sears Holding Co. (SHLD) after it tanked being such a good company making profitable earnings.  SHLD was creeping up since earnings but no sudden big movement but still upwards positive on the stock price.  I still thought buying Call options at the $172 stock price was a good level to get into.  So yesterday I bought the Dec 06 180 Calls at 1.50 planning on waiting for 2-3 days movement to hit my sell point at 4.00.  I’m excited to say this morning Dell earnings helped smack SHLD’s butt and made it up all the way to $180 selling me out around $179 at 4.00 profiting myself +$11,000. 

Now what to do?  Pay off my second note on my home which is $14,900.  I told myself the first time I get my account over $15,000 again I would take that money and pay off a home note and trade the remaining amount of money back up to that level again.  I believe making $700 to $40,000 in 4 months even if I am using profits as long as I make $40,000 that is my goal.  I might have to be extending my $40,000 goal because I can not trade while underway on my ship which I will be soon for around 2-3 months.  That would make it more like 7 months, still exciting and awesome if I can make my goal which I will because I know I can.

My account now is around $17,000 + all my bad trades or should I say non-moving stocks that haven’t done anything for me.  I told myself with my remaining amount of money I am going to trade expensive high quality stocks like SHLD, GOOG, NYX, FXI, MA, NUE, and AAPL that move consistantly and trade a like to catch trend movements.  I’ve built $2000 into $20,000 before when I knew nothing about stock options and traded penny stocks and dollar stocks which I recommend not doing because its very difficult. 

I trade risky so my if I do profit I profit much higher.  My SHLD trade lasted one day and made 175% which to the average investors that knows little about traded but doing understand what a return is would be blown away.  I’m blown away, but not that much since I’ve made much higher returns just recently and over the years.  I want to get to a point where I have a good deal of money and my trading activity becomes more stable with less risk.  Right now being young I know I can take the risk so I am trading like a wild gun.

Slower growth – a commonly used word so far this Q4 in the market

It seems many companies for their Q4 earnings keep saying slower growth, less sales, or falling short of revenue.  What this 4th quarter has shown us is that corporate companies are profiting more then last years sales and trying to create a new plan for a more profitable future with more growth.  The whole slow growth thing is turning off investors so corporate CEO’s are working on changing that attitude.  Many optimistic CEO’s trying to get rebust growth from a slowing economy doesnt’ equal up.  Inflation didn’t go up much and yes our economy is softly landing positive news to investors ears, but sooner or later inflation is going to catch up big time.  Oil prices are going to rise to ultimate high levels and our dollar will fall.

Recently AMAT had its earnings and had a very profitable Q4, but said new orders would be slow disappointing investors.  The stock price has traded between $17.20 – $18.90 sideways.  Since after earnings it dipped and has started to step back up.  Maybe all investors needed to hear was that it is still profiting and that was enough to keep buying into the company.  Many companies that uses its products it creates are receiving rebust growth like AAPL and SDSK.  I believe we are always going to have computers around, but they are just going to get lighter and smaller and maybe even one day put into a contact lense.

I see the market moving upwards into January 2007.  There has been lots of profit taking and the buying is ready to begin.  I see stocks like SHLD going to $180, AAPL moving to $95, and GRMN continueing up to $55 even after a profitable disappointing earnings.  Investors keep talking about bubble bursting stocks and it will happen.  If you look at the market in a whole many stocks priced over $60 could move to $100.  Google hitting $499 today almost at the $500 mark.  Do you remember in 2000 when stocks were $500?  I see Google as the first to maybe get to $600-700 and be the first the bust really hard down to $100-200 when the market finally dips and crashes really low.  In the meantime prepare to sell before it’s too late.  Be ready to take the handsome profits off the table and save it.

The time maybe isn’t near just yet, but as soon as stocks start getting to extreme high prices again the burst will happen.

The Bully in oil is back! GDP really hurt the optimistic vibe on the stock market but Fed’s have positive attitude.

I see ENERGY being bullish.  It had 2 big pull backs and recently with the Fed’s notes saying Energy is still profitable with current inflation oil should go back up including gas prices.  Technically it also shows a broken downward trend creating 3 white soldier candles up.  Companies you can note that have really been bought up at lower prices are SWN, EOG, and OIH.  OIH expecially has ran from $120 to now $138!  You are probably thinking that is a huge move and money will be taken off the table which it will, but I believe its only up half way.  If oil is now bullish and with Fed backing it up to still be profitable investors buying back in OIH will go back up to $150-160 range still leaving a large margin profitable for any option trading investor.  I plan to get back into OIH once I am out of two of my biggest trades ever.  I could be totally wrong about them, but I am willing to take that type of gun slinger chance.  I am in my biggest position AMAT with 650 JAN $22.5 CALLS.  Yes, call me crazy because I am.  AMAT earnings is November 15, 2006.  I plan to sell out before earnings if my sell price is executed if it isn’t I do not have anything to lose since the option is currently today worth $0.  But if I am write it will be around a $18,000 profit for holding the option for 1 month.  Simular circumstances with MSO 300 contracts for DEC 30 CALLS.  I really believe in Martha Stewart Living.  MSO will be the next company story even if they don’t beat earnings because they are still growing again I know they will surprise anaylst and investors creating upward movement in the stock enough to profit me another $30,000.  MSO earnings are Oct 31.  Only 2 trading days away!  If I’m wrong then I’m wrong.  No biggie.  Yes its a big loss, but I look at it as making an educated guess with research and facts and conviction that I believe it will go up in price.  Plus Martha Steward herself is the bomb (cool).   Even though she isn’t CEO anymore she means business and not any business but quality products and services in her business and that is what will make her company come alive again and become profitable.

As for the GDP saying it slowed down the company very much if you read into it you will notice the public already knew this.  Fed Bernake said it would be -1.1% less because of the hit in the housing market.  It was already pre-known which is a good example that this is just a minor pull-back.  I believe the market can go down for the next couple of days because of the scare, but the Fed’s said it is a positive “soft landing” and we are getting great better than expected earnings from major corporate companies.

My mother told me about her GOOGLE.com (GOOG) play she was in.   She believes it will goto $550 and I do too.  I only don’t trade it because the options are as much as a stock price.  I like to trade options priced $1 to $8.  I’m currently in many options trading under $1 and that is bad.  I’m only trading way out of the money because I bought time and letting the stock move up all the way before its earnings release.  For some stocks I have traded through earnings like Apple Computer (AAPL).  Anyway about GOOG.  She was up $800 today and could of sold out but didn’t.  She is right by telling me to sell out of my position up $6000 and I didn’t when I could of this morning.  I feel I trade better if I just wait for the stock to do its “own thing” and be patient if I am confident the company is doing well and is going to beat earnings (before its earnings).  In this case the stock options were GRMN 60 NOV Calls which only have 20 days left and now only up $2850.  I’m sure you are saying sell sell sell!  I have a conviction and confidence that Garmin will hit $70 before Nov 31th and I better be right.  It’s earnings is Nov 1st.  Only 3 market days away starting next week.   GRMN has already been upgraded by 2 major anaylst.  It took a big 4% hit today with GDP news.  Bummer for me.  The past 2 mondays have been bullish instead of mixed.  With this nervous GDP report this monday could definitely be mixed which wouldn’t help me out wanting to sell GRMN by Oct 31st.  I plan on holding my options through earnings and selling the next day either immediately at a profit or loss (if uptick after hours trading then sell at opening high bid where I should be still profitable).

Well that’s enough on trading stock options today.  I’ll blog next week after both earnings annoucements on MSO and GRMN.  I guess should be getting anxious and stressed out but I’m really not.  Every bit of money I put into my account to trade is money I’ve saved with extreme measures.  You have no idea how extreme.  I shall go into extreme saving money ideas in another blog on another day.  I put my money in there and if I lose it all I positively know I can make it all back on a couple hundred dollars.  I’m know expert and I’m not even really that good a trader yet, but I feel I can adapt to stocks real quick and understand where they are short-term going.

I also wanted to point out Starbucks (SBUX) is just popping up EVERYWHERE.  When they meant they were growing double the amount of stores this year they were SERIOUS.  In Hawaii SBUX is a regular shop in every strip and people go there like mad crazy to get their “fix” to make them feel happy.  It’s a company I’m seriously interested in buying super long calls on that could possible be my biggest contract trade ever.

 Later – Paul

Stock option backdating investigations = CFO and Chairmans retire and sneak out quickly.

Lately its been the trend to retire from your public company as soon as you find out you will be investigated for backdating stock options.  I’m not too happy and I want my CFO’s and chairman to show a little integrity in the work place instead of running away from their past problems.  Currently one of my favorite companies Apple Computer Inc is getting slaughtered with stock options backdating investigations when investors should be really focusing on its new products expecially its Intel chip computers.  I see people buying Apple computers every day in CompUSA Stores where Apple receive special treatment with its own sales area to show off its very cool computers, music devices, and entertainment like systems.  I see Apple becoming the next explosive Dell Computer growth like company.  If Apple is able to generate a new database of the computer market like it hasn’t been able to for years it will just explode in computer sales growth besides creating new iPods.  I have an iPod, it’s the Nano one.  Apple has really made its product look great and ease of use while also monopolizing everything to only work together with iTunes.  iMusic is another really easy system.  Find your song click it and you bought it then it goes straight through iTunes to download onto your iPod. 

I really hope investors see growth in Apple because if you don’t then you are blind to notice to see all the Apple computers with Intel computers chips being sold at CompUSA stores.  New customers are switching to have a better computer and a cooler looking one at that.

So lets stand up corporate america and show some integrity and work on positive earnings and better results with your people that run your finances.

CNN Money online news story about a family saving money.

I came across this news article about a young family saving money after college and thought it would be really useful and interesting.  You might even get some insight in your own home to help you become a millionaire.

CNN Money Online Article (Click Here) - Millionaires in the Making: The Johnsons

North Korea Nuclear Threat & the Stock Market

Todays warning from North Korea’s Nuclear Weapon test woke up the market.  Early morning it was down, but positive news from http://www.google.com/ going to buyout http://www.youtube.com/ kept the market upbeat.  Google Inc. becoming the number one search engine and the number one online video streaming company will create more growth and boost its stock price to the $500 target Jim Cramer of Mad Money on CNBC keeps talking about.  Cramer is right.  Google is still growing and although the price of the stock is big currently $430 the time to get in is now.  Technical analysis shows two big white candles proving a breakout of its $390-410 price movement for the past couple of months.  As long as there is no bad news and Google.com keeps surprising analyst with earnings the stock price will be pushed up again probably up until late January 2007.  A $500 price target is realistic.  Most people can not affoard a couple of hundred shares or even a couple of shares so I suggest CALL OPTIONS.  Even buying “In The Money” options for Google.com will be expensive.  The times I have traded options on Google.com I’ve bought maybe 1 month out and 20-30 dollars “Out of the Money” because I could simply not affoard any other at the time.  To buy 1 to 2 contracts way out of the money you are looking at around a $1200-3000 investment.  With a big price move upwards you could be looking at a 25-100% profit on investment (POI). 

Besides Google Inc. two other companies I am very fond of are Starbucks and Garmin.  Starbucks is doubling its store base creating major growth with increased coffee prices creates a money making machine.  Garmin on the other hand is really pushing their product awareness through tv commercials add-ons in cars and trucks.  GPS in your car is becoming like satellite radio.   Even my car has a button for XM Satellite radio in my 2005 Honda Element EX.  All I have to do is become a subscriber and its already to be used.  GPS is becoming ever more popular and will soon be one day a regular device like your standard radio.  The stories for these stocks are going to make my portfolio very happy.  Look for pullbacks and then buy or buy to hold to go through some price movement you can stomache and then sell with the profit you are happy with.  Stocks are kind of like buying a house.  For one thing you have to love the neighborhood because you aren’t necessary buying just the house.  The neighborhood represents the overall stock market and what it looks like and the rest of the stocks in its sector and their performance.  Finding the realtor and not paying those ridiculous sales commissions is finding the right online discount brokerage.  I prefer OptionsXpress Inc. because the website is fast, customer service is quick, and the orders are filled quickly.  The setup is easy to understand navigate too which is really important when you are ready to buy or sell.  Thirdly you want to know about the house you are going to buy.  You just don’t buy a house.  You go look at it, examine it, figure out if its worth the price the seller is asking, make sure it doesn’t have any big problems to be aware of, and the pretty the house is the better.  Face it.  Pretty houses sell much faster then ugly houses (unless the price is right and its gold untouched).  I mean pretty because the company has a good public image, has many faithful long-term customers buying the product or service, and its is making money keeping it looking pretty.  Plain and simple the company sells itself.  I hope my analogies have opened your mind some about the stock buying process.

Oil falls further – Re-commeting on SWN 40 PUT option

In 1 day I was called out of my PUT option for SWN by the end of Tuesday’s trading day.  It always feels good to be sold out of a trade.  I am clear minded again and can live another day to trade and I’m right about at least the technical side of oil.  Now that EOG Resources is going into earnings for Oct 30 I am considering a small CALL position being the season with the entire trend of the market going up.  I am also in 2007 CALL’s for BRCM @ $29, AMAT @ $17, and MSO @ $18.  I especially like Martha Stewart Company.   She’s awesome and I feel now that she can be apart of it again and the new CEO is bright and is pushing the company forward the next few quarters with positive cashflow coming in is going to surprise anaylst and investors.  At $18 a share I find it very affordable and discounted even though it is priced 20 times earnings.  Right now it is just sitting in a flat desert of flat rock and I know soon its going to be like an errupting volcano pushing the price up for surprising earnings from advertising revenue, partner income, and product placement sales in top stores.  I’d have a beer with Martha Stewart any day and pull out some weeds.  She is my type of woman.  A tuff leader, very smart, business savvy, and still has time to tend the garden.

SouthWestern Energy Co. (SWN)

I just recently bought OCT 40 PUT options on SWN.  Technicals show it dropping off the rictor scale.  My instincts were right, but now I am in my second PUT feeling even a bigger sell-off is going to happen.  Am I wrong I think?  Did the support finally hit?   3 peaks going down, will the trend keep going up now?  SWN follows very closely to EOG Resources (EOG).  If $64 for Crude Barrel Inventory is the support price that “keeps the oil industry profitable” then I should be buying CALLS right now.  I still feel oil has a way to go down unless a swarm of buying persists this week.  September technically being a sell-off month going into October.  Oil is still at all time highs and I believe it is running out of steam.  I could be wrong and I will know by the end of this week of Sept.

SWN Daily Chart showing PUT trade in September 2006.

Currently I know Oil Holders Investment Trust (OIH) shows a support level at around $125 a share, and with todays rise of 5% across many energy sector stocks it makes me wonder if we are about to go for an upward ride.  Remember the energy sector is down 7% right now which could be between 5-20 pts depending on which stocks you follow.  Right now energy looks like a bargain at discount lows, but lows can go lower.  In the next fews days I’ll re-comment on this post to make my decision.

My OIH price support analysis at $123.  I was right.  Bounced all the way up to $140.

Pay day is my favorite day. Don’t let your hard earned money slip away!

In the military just as in the corporate world we are basically paid twice a month.  The 1st and the 15th.  As a previous pizza delivery driver those days were the best to make money on.  Some drivers would just only work on those days because tips are better because people are paid.  Now I am going to talk about saving your hard earning pay day money.  Creating some type of budget if it be in your head or in a planner book.  You need to know what you can and can not spend because if you don’t how much free money you can have to spend you will end up with nothing left to save until your next check.  Many people live paycheck to paycheck.  It has even happened to me when I was very young.  At a certain point I just understood the meaning of money and the bigger vision of keeping more of it would get me ahead in the future.  Try to save at least 25% of your income.  Currently I earn around $3000/m after taxes.  Not a lot for living in Hawaii, but enough to be about to save at least 35% or $1000/m to invest with.  My ideal thinking is to invest everything I can into stock market options.  At some point I am going to be very right.  I have been actively studying the stock market for over 10 years and just recently stock options for the past 2 years.  I’ve learned a lot and I’m starting to trade smarter from doing mistakes I’ve already been taught not to do.  I can’t say I am much of a rebel, but everyone at some point is a child and you are going to get spanked hard by one play or another to teach you a big lesson.  Sometimes loosing so much money in the market can be a very huge motivating push that can help you go from rags to riches. 

Now back to pay day.  If you are going to be better off the next month you need to have it in the bank.  Call it saving for an emergency or cushion money or even money you are willing to give up for a bigger vision of your future.  Yes, I have lost money in the market.  I’m working on making my losses small and my profits larger.  For every person that is loosing money there is someone or some investment firm making it and I want to become that person that profits.  I know what you are thinking.  No way I want to loose money in the stock market and you are right.  You need to study and have conviction about when you trade know absolutely your trade is going to work.  If you don’t feel the stock market is your veichle for future cash flow then consider saving around $5000 and buying a condo or small house (getting 100% loan financed only paying closing costs).  I bought a small home and receive $725/m rental income from it with a $653 mortgage.  Not much rental income but owning it pays off HUGE with my yearly taxes receiving more paid out money and I can say I own something. 

I hear many people say they want to take some money from their paycheck and invest it in bank deposits and bonds.  Personally I just don’t think you make enough for your money just sitting there, but if you don’t believe in a little more risk creates a much bigger return then do it.  I just hope I can motivate a person to save money.  Everybody just seems to spend it all then they think I’m rich because I don’t spend mine.  It’s choice, you’ve got it and so do I so use it and think long-term with a short-term money management style to create more choices for you and your family long-term.

 Here’s a story of my parents.  I remember as a child listening to WHRO 90.3’s 5 P.M. wall street radio broadcast of the Dow Jones Industrial Averages and Nasdaq Monday through Friday.  My parents would invest $50 a month into 1 local company every month and did this for years.  12 years later with around $8,000 saved from buying 1 to 2 stocks to equal $50/m now they have the choice to help them buy their dream home, a new car, help pay for college, use for medical, or just keep investing.  This is the power of saving and investing even as little as $50/month.  My parents never made much money probably together less than $30,000 a year having 4 children.  We lived in a small town-home, ate crockpot soups, rice, and simple meals rarely getting fastfood or deliveried pizzas and really never going out to a resturant.  We sacrificed a lot of luxuries, but I feel as a family we were happy.  Christmas was never expensive because we always found it fun to buy a million gifts from the dollar store.  Sure it sounds ghetto?  It isn’t.  My parents made an attempt to buy us each at least one nice gift whether it be some new clothes, a bike, or something we needed not necessarly something we wanted.

 Remember a small sacrifice to start saving your money can pay off big when you need it most so start now.

My first blog inspired by other financial bloggers aimed to help individuals learn how to increase their goals to a faster retirement.

Hi.  I’m Paul Meyer and will be writing this blog under the name Finance Ninja.  I thought up the name fighting between Money Kung Fu and my cyberspace nerd name elektrowhiteboy.  I’m an ordinary big nerd.  I think up the craziest things to say, do, and help people with.  I am great at saving and creating ways to make money.  So I thought Finance Ninja was the best general name for this blog I’m going to pour my heart and soul into.  Unlike other financial wisdom bloggers I am going to go down other dark roads to help you learn more about the power of money.  Money can help you or destroy you, and you really need to choose right now in your life what it will be.

 I am currently in the United States Coast Guard serving a 4 year term with around 3 years and two months left at this point.  I’m very confident in my decision in join the USCG to save money, surf more waves, and live in a fresh new place.  To make a comment on that you can move anywhere, but you will always be the same person inside so lets find out really who you are and help you manage your money more efficiently.

 My name is Paul.  I have an addiction and it is saving money.