Stocks will continue to fall – PUTS – AAPL, RIMM, BIDU, GOOG, C, SHLD, RIG

The stock market had a small run this week, but not enough to make back the money I lost in my huge Nov 07 call positions. I tell you the most annoying thing that can happen to you is when your co-worker rubs your lost in your face. My reaction like any other trader is to want to beat his ass and prove him wrong, but I have to admit he’s totally right. I did lose some big bucks, I told him, and now he’s rubbing it in my face. I suppose I deserve it in a little way just to have this 3rd party in retrospect show me “you are trading crappy and until you prove me wrong I can joke and not believe you” and I probably shouldn’t of told him. Recently my co-worker has been trading real money. He has already told me he has lost -$3500 real money. Of course he is blaming the brokerage website, the stock (BIDU in this case), and everything else except his own trading actions. I think the only real bright future I have going for me is that I can handle the loss and can take responsibility for my own actions. I lost the money because I waited waited waited just to see it vanish when I could of took a big loss, but still had money left over. I also noticed he has been depositing more money into his account after he loses. This is another thing he doesn’t understand about me. I have not deposited money into my account. I use what I’ve got or else you lose more. His wife does not know about this, I’m sure. He is newly married and even though I shared options investing with him I’m not going to take the blame for any of his future dumb actions. He will not practice trade, he doesn’t read up about market history, and he doesn’t listen. He’s very scholarly, but as he will find out it’s not about being smart it’s about trading with as much information to make the probability in your favor to be right and not just trading off “feelings” or acting cocky.

Speaking of “feelings” I have to say I’ve been overwhelmed with them recently. It is almost as my dreams have be yanked away from me. Paying off that $35,000 note would of been huge for me not having that payment making owning that trailer park much easier. So bad decisions create dead dreams, not to say it won’t be a success, but it would have been a better success paying it off and not trading the markets as I did.

As for real estate I’m suppose to be selling my 2bed/1bath home in Hampton, VA for $105,000 down from $119,900 to an investor who says he will pay cash (equity). This will be good so I can finally close on my second mobile home park. Hopefully, God, yes that great universal truth will be at my side on my next deal. I will be putting around $40k down from my home sale.

Oh yes, the stock market. I bought AAPL DEC 125 PUTS @ $1.17 today. I only had less than $1200 left in my account so it cost me just under that for around 10 contracts or a $1000 trade. This is my last money. In Pring’s Technical Analysis for Charting book it shows 3 trends from the years 1987 to 1989. The charts currently for November 2007 match exactly with this historical charts. Even some of the same things were happening like inflation, slowing growth, and selling less and less (such as homes in our case/construction). If this proves correct we just started to fall from the second bearish top meaning it will fall much more. Then supposedly it will have a run Dec 07 into Jan 08. In jan 08′ it will start to fall through 09′ a fall much steeper and longer then what has currently been taking place. If charts stick then I will be watching for short Call plays and longer Put plays. This AAPL Put option should only last until mid-DEC 07′ if charts pull through with all the negative news. Apple is a great company, but many great companies fall with the markets. It is when everything settles the best companies have unimaginable runs such is what happened in 2003 on after the big fall of 01′.

well later -fn

November 2007 – an exception to a bullish year – market crashing

Well, my sister is right for once. She is very right indeed. I’ve read a lot of books and well wasn’t really watching ALL the charts just the my industry charts on tech. I have an icky feeling that we will see Apple (AAPL @ $172) and Research In Motion (RIMM @ $112) fall to august 2007 lows again. So AAPL could go as low as $120’s. This is scary but true. All of my Qcharts are flipping over on the big charts (weekly and daily). Next week we may see a little run, but 2007 is going to be an exception then that means stocks should fall even hard through the fall months. Everything is in play credit problems, real estate sales dropping, oil rising, the dollar weakening, oh and yeah all stock charts showing a bust. I probably should of been playing closer attention to the big dogs Dow Jones and Nasdaq + futures. Sometimes it just really sucks working a lot because you don’t give yourself fully to what could cost you a lot of money, which it has. I was playing Microsoft (MSFT @ 34.40) and AAPL @ 172 November 07 calls way out of the money expecting a strong run being a volatile year and going into bullish seasons. What I didn’t take into account was what the big market was doing which is going down. So now this minor, yet huge, error has cost me over $20,000 in losses in a rather very short time period of a week. I was joking with my sister and her husband, “do you know what can kill an erection? a $20,000 dollar loss in a few days”. At least I thought it was funny and so did they.

I suppose it is good I can laugh about losing so much money, especially when it is the only money I’ve got. I think to myself I do have next year to try again, build up some cash, and start trading. Maybe one day I’ll get this professional trader thing down. I still definitely have no discipline. So my next plan will be building a trading plan on having no discipline. Sounds whack right? Maybe I can make a style so I can still be safe trading with still a lack of discipline. I think thought long-term I will go broke if I don’t gain some skills. I’ve been getting better at selling at a loss even a big loss and getting out. As for my AAPL and MSFT nov calls that expire next week (5 more trading days) well my account is whiped so if there is a 2 day rally I plan to sell out profitably or not.

November 2007 is definitely an exception. It sure had me fooled. I don’t care what Jim Crammer says the market is going down further before it has another big run. My taxes are going to kill me this year. Plus now I don’t have the money to pay off my car, money to pay off my mobile note that I was given the chance to pay $35,000 for which is worth $80,000 and huge saving. I suppose when opportunity knocks and you don’t have the money you definitely beat yourself up a little bit subconciously.

There is no praying or hoping in the stock market. The picture and information is there. It is about calculating and making wise decisions on what is happening in the market. I was really wrong about a bullish November and I take full responsibility for my loss because I wasn’t looking at the “big picture”.

well cheers to 2008 I guess. I guess if I had money Puts right now would of been a fabulous choice.

AAPL OCT 170 CALLS sold out up +25%, GOOG earnings

Okay so to finish from a few days ago I bought AAPL calls going up and I was sold out the falling morning for $2.60 up 25%. I wanted to trade into GOOG earnings, but with a small amount so I only traded $1000. Again I was probably being too greedy. I could only buy 1 contract and I did at $10 for GOOG NOV 690 CALLS, but I should of put my GTC order at $11.50 or $12 at the most. Early morning trading the next day the option only went up to $12.60 so if I only put it up a dollar or more I would of been sold out with a 10% profit. I put my GTC order at $15 because I thought GOOG which his $658 would of rose $5 since I was closer to in the money, but I was wrong. I also slept it! I put my alarm for 3:30 AM to get up right when the market opened so I could sell out, but I slepted in an hour and that cost me $300. I sold out at $7 with a $300 loss. I’m actually happy I loss only $300 because if I would of stayed in I’d lost a bit more. This is what is confusing: I bought my option when GOOG was at $639, but my option fell $3 dollars even when in the next morning it was up $9. You’d think my option would of went up with the stock instead of fell. How is this possible? I figured it had to do something with expiration Friday for options. My call option fell $3 even thought GOOG’s stock went up and held at $9 so like $648. I don’t know why my option fell so much but it did. I think for now on I’m not going to buy calls near expiration Friday. They must adjust the price or something. Anyway GOOG earnings should help the stock rise. The Dow drop of -$366 pts is termporary and I definitely expect Monday or Tuesday next week to have a pop and push the market higher after this big pull back.

Stocks I’ve been keeping a close eye on are FXI, GOOG, AAPL, NUE, SHLD, RIG
FXI is due for a correction with the asian markets. Just recently it has fell 18 pts within a week. If it breaks its major trend I might buy a crap load of Puts on it. AAPL’s earnings are OCT 24th and I might play Puts on it because historically Apple during earnings falls every time.
With NUE steel is starting a strong uptrend helped by X. SHLD is just very volatile and I’m looking for entry points since it is going sideways now. Lastly RIG had a peg of .41 does anyone know this? This stock has continually gone up its trend and if does at $112 it will start bouncing back up again to a higher price.

Market falls on a Monday – big earnings week

Surprisingly the market fell hard today steadily throughout the day. With the market going against the sell off on Thursday I figured it would continually go up throughout the weekend, but this was not the case. Google (GOOG @ 620) fell with major search engine Bidu (BIDU @ 334). I see good buying opportunities with a possible pop tomorrow since at the end of the day there was a quick late buying interest. If you saw Apple Inc. it spiked straight up the last 30 minutes with “3 white soldiers”. I’m playing a small position in AAPL OCT 07 170 Calls @ 2.06 and I have my GTC order at $2.60 which would make me a 25% ROI if I’m sold out tomorrow morning. If AAPL doesn’t move I’m going to sell myself out of the position.

This week will hold Google earnings. The king of Tech in my opinionGOOG is the stock to be watching because its growth has been huge each year. For the past two years GOOG jumped 30 points during Oct earnings release. I plan to trade only a $500 trade right before close of the earnings annoucement on Oct 18th.

As for dating life. I think this new girl I’m interested in works more then I do and that is a problem. It is great to see such a productive person, but I don’t know when we would ever have time to see each other.

My roommates plan on adding an additional 4th person to our 1 bedroom apartment. Yes, you heard me right. Four people in this tiny 1 bedroom. Currently I’m the only one working. They are getting annoying playing video games and drinking 40’s. I do not know how much longer I will last, but since I’m leaving on patrol again for a few months I can deal plus rent will only be 200-300/month or I could just move all my shit out again which is what I’m thinking I just might do instead and pay $125 in storage fees.

Last thing taking 3 classes, doing stock stuff, trying to meet ladies, living with 2 other guys cramped in a small apartment, and on top of that finding free time has started to add up. Did I also mention trying to buy this second park while my first one is about to become what I can an “end” investment. If I’m unable to rent this place I will take it as a lost and practically give it way because I’m not going to let it turn into a negative cashflow business which it currently is. I’m not giving up on it yet, but I told the property manager if we can get it fully rented by Dec 07 then I’m going to have to shut the entire park down and put it up for sale. I have a feeling this week is going to be a very tiresome week. Big money comes with big stress when theres no one to help you relax…

Google (GOOG) @ $437 profited me $15,000 in 5 days off near month call options

Last week was an excellent week. My art was together doing its thing. The day I told myself I would sell out my profit went up to + $20,000, but I was at a major disadvantage because I had no phone to call my broker nor internet to sell out. I finally did get to sell out of my Nov and Oct 07 670 call options both well over 100% ROI in less than 5 days market days. I told myself I’d sit back now before jumping into a new trade. I might take a tiny bit of my profits such as $500 to go through GOOG earnings on Oct 18, 2007. The past 2 years GOOG jumped around $30 if it reported good results so if it was another good year my options should sell out the day of earnings profitably.

My eyes are back on Apple Inc. (AAPL @ $167). I think it has finally maken up its mind to start “moving” again. It is definitely capitalizing in on the iPhone and its monopoly. I am seeing more and more iPhones in peoples hands and personally I want one too! I currently have a Nano iPod and enjoy it very much without any problems. Earnings should be stellar with Apple also taking over the computer market currently staking a 25% stake in the share of all computers sold. Apple is hot right now. I’d like to be options and see it go to $200 price target. This may happen at its next expo in January of 2008.

Lastly the only other company I’m interested in is Sears Holding Company (SHLD @ $142) the retail sales reports scared the stock some, but many factors are coming into play to force the stock up going into major retail selling season. Historically on charts it doesn’t move much after mid-November it looks so I don’t know how much a play SHLD will be, but I will watch it for a trade.

The lady I’ve been interested in is awesome, but I don’t think she is interested in me. Maybe the friend deal? Lame. I got to dance with her at Octoberfest here in Honolulu. I had a blast and wish I could do more with her. I did send her flowers and she loved them for sure. I guess only time will tell if I have a fighting chance at her heart.

As for my trailor park my new manager is doing a great job and I plan to buy some new trailers on the lots to rent out more. The second park is still waiting for appraisals and contracts to be done. I bought a residential lot near Austin, TX for $1000. Its right in a major new and upcoming community with tons of golf courses. If I do retire is that what retired people do? Play golf all the time?

After watching Michael Moore’s “Sicko” I think I’m going to also buy land in Canada, France, and Cuba since the healthcare seems to be great and Cuba buying up Peso’s could be a great investment long-term.

mobile home park repairs, new manager – non-farm payroll report

My new manager for my mobile home park #1 has been a life saver. He is on his game, at least seems honest, and will not put up with bad tenants. If we can get the park fully rented again I will at least break even in the mean time until I can buy more trailers to fill the empty lots available to rent. I am in another deal to buy an 18 lot park, with 18 park owned trailers, all fully rented, for $190k. You might ask why am I buying another park if my first park has gone to shit and I’m not profiting yet? Well I’m pretty ambitious so I don’t let one park bring me down. It will work. I believe in it, the people helping me, and fixing it up to rent fully. So far I have bought a park that is known as the worst/drug heavy spot outside of town. How’s that to know you are a park owner of scum? Hmm…I guess it could be worst. I was once a young man that would run away from this type of situation, now I’m going to go head on and fix it so I will suceed. If I want to be powerful and successful I need to learn how to fix problems. This is definitely a problem and with a $80k mortgage I definitely need to fix it. I will blog more as more trailers are rented out with more progress.

As for stocks. I steadily keep losing my money. It is simply amazing how well I can lose money. I’m not saying I’ve always lost money, but recently since August 2007 I’ve made some big loss trades. I should be making BIG gains, but for some reason I’m not making the right decisions. Granted, I don’t have time to watch the market all day, buy and sell when I want, but I had plenty of opportunities to make a profit and get out without losing the bulk of my money. Now that my down payment I was using to create more money for a deal is down I’m going to have to work and think triple hard to bring my trading money up to where it was before basically $40,000. Currently at $3000 (minus the $6000 that really doesn’t count because its my down payment, well was $10000 I should say).

I admit my ambitious move to put $10k into a trade to earn $20k probably wasn’t the smartest move, but a 50% chance is pretty good I think. Now that the $10k is $6k I’ll have to work it extra hard. I’m already -$8k down for the entire year. Not one withdrawed profit yet. My $40k profit should of been taken out immediately to put into real estate. Dumb me. Well I guess I learn repeatedly the hard way as usual. If I was married and she know would it make it any different? Would she convience my thoughts otherwise not to re-trade the big profit? Probably.

I plan on trading SHLD in the retail season. SHLD has broken its major downtrend and a lot of positive buzz has been on the stock from a billionaire buying up 5% of the stock just recently.
Currently at $151 and a high of $170s I think or should I say by the facts and charts right now seems like a great time to get in. AAPL @161 just moved up finally of course (taking forever).
AAPL might be the better stock going to $200? Whatever I trade it has to move up or I need to sell my options. The time value of Calls slow the price movement up if the stock stays flat and falls. This I have learned. The recent non-farm payroll report boosted stocks HIGH. I should of NOT bought Put options knowing that there was a “rumor” that the payroll report was going to be higher then expected which is bullish. Again, dumb me. Hard learning.

As for the ladies. I took one charming lady interested in the finance field out to lunch. Haven’t heard back from her – going to send her some small flowers. Will this get me any attention? noticeable? probably unlikely, but it is worth the try.

later -fn

dating for business nerds, AAPL, trailer park news

Well last night was quite a night. Plenty of beautiful women yet I “freeze” at every given moment to talk to one. I find it interesting that the women that I call bottom feeders just like men that prey on easier women flock to me. I must be radiating off “desperate nerdy fumes” because some how I get myself into uncomfortable situations. I’d say even after 9 straight hard liquer double shot drinks I’m still sober. A woman hitting on me, completely drunk and vulnerable, starts physically showing her affection. Right there I could of easily took her home and had a successful night to most bottom feeder guys. She was bottom feeding on me, at least I think. Granted I consider myself a pretty nice guy I don’t know how to tell girls I’m not interested so I just try to disappear. I know that sounds crummy and wrong, but what else can I do?

Last night I met a wonderful, cheery, cute woman engaging herself into the finance industy. To me this is a complete turn on and makes her even sexier. But rather when she asks someone to dance, even though I like to dance, I freeze and right at that moment history creates itself. Possibly now that guy will be the guy she personally chooses, and although I have many more simular interests with her and she liked my compliments because I chose to stand there and not act I am virtually non-existent. So then later say I might end up doing something even more incredibly dumb like sending her flowers to see if she remembers me to spark her interests that I’m still thinking about her? Oh, of course, but probably by then any chance will be gone.

Did I also say that I’ve been hitting on a woman 20 years older then me? Okay, shes into business too. She stays in shape and in my opinion is much sexier and prettier then most 20 years I go after, but still maybe too mature for me? She left early because we came together at the bar. I think she likes me, she maybe even had a fantasy, but realistically she would not let me persuade her to date me even if I think shes hot. I was thinking though with the laws of attraction even if I was dating her and we were looking for simular partners in our age group wouldn’t this still attract our opposite sexes for more options? You know how you are married or dating and suddenly all these beautiful women/men suddenly appear, but you are locked in a relationship. Well that is what I was thinking. maybe it might do us some good?

For stocks AAPL has reached $154, but my options have been re-evaluated it seems twice and have only gone up to the price I paid for them. Twice now I could of sold them up $2500. I’m hoping my patience pays off. Current Apple Inc. news has been moving it up. Last year AAPl fell the first week of October through the half of the month. Will history repeat itself? Investors are very optimistic and earnings is in late Oct. The $2900 appraiser is going out to evaluate this new trailer park. I hope everything is an okay and the park is appraised much higher so I could possibly use the funds to purchase a much bigger park by the time I’m out of the USCG. Currently my first park is taking a lot of work moving out tenants, throwing away tons of trash, and getting it up to habitable standards. The new property manager has been a big help and I hope he can handle it. I pray my parks run successfully so I can fly out and take the property managers out to a nice dinner to reward them.

well thats a nerds life for ya.

Human Resoures – Not an easy job. Stocks – AAPL, SWN

Recently I’ve just started a fasttrack college course for an upper level Human Resources class. HR is much harder then I expected. I thought it would be cake! I give HR people much more credit now having to understand all the laws, rules, and regulations on hiring and planning your workforce. Being an HR takes brains I do not have to spare.

For stocks AAPL @ $138 has just been waiting for something to make it move. The news of its 1 millionth iPhone sale is good news to my options which are now in the negative again since I did not sell them when God gave me the choice to up a couple grand. I’m going to stick to my guns about AAPL stock moving much higher. I have to admit the $10 g’s I put into the options can not lose since that money is needed for another mobile home park I’m interested in buying. AAPL currently has a strong upward trend and I count on it to move much higher into Oct if more, many more, iPhones are sold. It’s a hot product and with the price reduction it should sell much more because a new “i” trend product. I’d like to make $20 g’s on AAPL options move the initial $10 g’s out into my escrow for my down payment and use the profits to buy more options. Another stock moving right along which has 100% broken it’s downward trend is SWN. SWN @ $42 now is steadily moving up with new $80 oil highs. Historically both stocks AAPL and SWN and NTRI have moved up end of August into October.

Currently I’m in “C” school for my military rate. It’s awesome. I’d really like to live the college dorm life even in my 30’s. Good food, exercise, computers labs, and young beautiful women. It doesn’t get much better then this. I feel so relaxed and no stress bothering me except getting business deals completed and selling out of stocks profitably.

So far I was wrong about SWN options since I bought them way way too early in Aug and now in Sept they will expire when the stock is just started to move up the past 6 days.
My NYX options that end is Sept have no chance since the stock is so hated. NYX should be a powerhouse and maybe one day it will be trading very high, but for now it doesn’t move past the $80’s.

I’m keeping an eye on NTRI which has moved down to $48 and now strong up into the $55’s. RIG @ $105 is still in the .31 PEG. Unbelieveable if you ask me.

stock market correction = uptrending

If you are a stock market follower you’d notice the different wording journalist are using such as “optimistic” that we hit our low just recently last Thursday Aug 16 to be exact. I was watching the market as AAPL was hitting $112’s and NYX was hitting $65’s. I was drawing my support lines because after the big red candle dropped a big white candle stood right next to it top to bottom and went right up with buyers looking for a golden opportunities. Since I’m still a student I really did not know which direction the market would go. On Friday stocks popped higher creating a doji star showing the market made up its mind. So now for the past almost 6 days the market has ran up with white candles breaking the downward trend since July 15th. I’m currently in AAPL JAN 200 CALLS up around 30% in my options +$3000 in 2 business days. I’m not going to sell at some crazy high number, but I am going to follow the major uptrend line until it is broken or bad news comes out, other wise I’m stick to my play. I’m very confident in Apple and until their next earnings call I’m going to trade it up to earnings or until I’m happy with my profit. I’d also love to be in SHLD and RIG Calls, but I’ve been taught to be in only one trade at a time even if there are other opportunities available. I need to stick to the rules and show some discipline or I’m never going to become a great trader.

Currently I’ve been looking at a trailor park to buy for $190,000. I’ve talked to many experts in this field and the price looks very good for what I’m getting which would be an 18 lot, 2.37 acre, with 18 park owned homes rented for $350-450 each, with all utilities established. It is around 20 minutes away from University of eastern Tennessee (Johnson City, TN). I’d really like to do the deal, but I want to get an outside property manager if I buy it. This is the advice I’ve gotten basically to get rid of any favoritism within the park. It would make some serious cashflow to my real estate portfolio. Between the 2 trailor parks I will eventually be receiving around a $50k net income a year more than my U.S. Coast Guard income so it would finally give me the choice of retirement at age 29. I still want to be a great trader, but it would give me choice even if I did not trade stock options.

I’m almost done with my 3 classes at HPU and will start another 5 online in the next two semesters. I want to double major by 2009 then do some pastry or music school or both when I get out. 2007 has been a very volatile year for my portfolio and my goal is to come out higher than last years or at least breaking even. Many of my penny stocks are worthless so I will have to sell them soon or I will be paying some serious taxes from gains I do not have anymore. Trends are looking good and the technicals are showing major buying right now so look out!

Apple Inc. (AAPL @ $126) big pull back expect lots of buying

Apple Inc. (AAPL) just recently took a big pull back at $126. I’d load up on shares if I wasn’t broke! hahahaha. Seriosly! Okay I’m not actually broke, but I definitely feel like I’m spent out to the max. For anyone interested in getting a bargain AAPL at $126 currently is because Apple Inc. is a great company that will keep earning profits even if the financial markets have a melt down because of its trendy very wanted products. AAPL current growth trends are off the charts by out selling the entire PC industry with its sleek charming Mac computer sales. All those iPods are finally paying off because those customers are switching to Macs. The iPhone will just be another diamond ring paying off big once it picks up and it will. Apple’s advertising on Tv works. The iPhone is awesome. Apple Inc. keeps turning heads with every new and old product they created improving everything about it, and Apple fans are great influence of more products being sold with mega word of mouth.

Even though currently on a 1 and 5 day chart AAPL looks glim and very bullish I expect bullish up ticks tomorrow or Monday back to the $135. IF AAPL continues to fall with the market (since the market IS falling) then better for me when I will have some capital saved up to buy it when it does start moving up again. I thought AAPL’s flame was over, but with new affordable Mac’s and the creation of the iPhone we could have another 2-5 years of upward growth for AAPL stock. This year I predict it to go well over $200 a share with increasing market share in the phone market and computer market. That currently would be a +$74 profit per share or around a 7000% profit on any option you buy now good until 2009.